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The group chats that changed America

The group chats that changed America

124 comments

·April 28, 2025

cloverich

Here's a fun project idea. Take as input tweets, articles, etc, from various politicians and think tanks. Then generate a mapping of who is probably in a Signal chat with one another, and at what point in time.

I could imagine if the model was very good and well done, to even generate names for the chats, in a UI where clicking into it could show a graph of involvement, ideas likely shared, and approximate timelines. Perhaps clicking into the ideas could lead to details on the history / corruption of the idea, etc.

ajross

People do this already, but the signal (heh) detected by that kind of analysis isn't consumption of shared media. That's weak‚ and near the noise floor. The much stronger component is just dissemination of deliberate talking points, which happens all the time. What you need to add is the ability to discriminate the spinsters from the "real people", which is basically impossible.

cptroot

As always, Chris Rufo lays the game out in plain terms:

> Rufo had been there all along: “I looked at these chats as a good investment of my time to radicalize tech elites who I thought were the most likely and high-impact new coalition partners for the right.”

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dang

HN thread about the 2024 post referenced in the OP:

Group chats rule the world - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40660867 - June 2024 (184 comments)

blitzar

Signal chats are the new "clubhouse"?

pbiggar

The fact that these group chats were behind the Chesa Boudin recall campaign should surprise no-one.

philipwhiuk

Turns out the Swamp is Signal group chats.

hsuduebc2

I have some hot take for this phenomena.

As tech elites lost their untouchable image of being pure prodigies and visionaries, it became clearer — especially after scandals like Cambridge Analytica — that many of them operate like ordinary, ruthless capitalists. Public trust declined as more people moved online and more abuses came to light. Instead of fully acknowledging this shift, many of these elites seem to interpret the criticism — much of which comes from media and universities, which do lean left — as purely ideological attacks. From my perspective, it’s a textbook case of cognitive dissonance: their self-image as bold innovators clashes with how they are increasingly seen from the outside, and the natural human reaction is to blame the critics rather than adjust the self-image.

Apocryphon

It's funny that the "economic anxiety" thesis for the rise in populism might also apply to tech elites. They hardly cared a few years back when the NYT and other liberal media organs started bashing tech nonstop while the boom was in full swing. Then they started swinging to the right just as the previous administration started unwinding ZIRP.

roguecoder

It's also clear that the big players always thought these things. In this article, Andreessen got mad and founded right-wing echo chambers because left-wing thinkers though censoring anti-racists was bad. Musk has been an egregiously racist person in an egregiously racist family and has never respected the rule of law.

For a while these people felt like they had to pretend to be decent, pro-social humans so they could keep making money: that seems great. More people should pretend not to be racist assholes.

I wonder how much of this is that they got so rich "you can't make more money" stopped being a meaningful threat.

hsuduebc2

I would say they really believed it all and weren't "bad" at the start because they perceived themselves as enlighted individuals. Then first scandals appeared and they got stuck in echo chambers and endless cope driven circle jerk.

For me the cringiest part of all is sudden strong urge to appear strong and masculine. It is always full package.

ajross

This tracks with my experience here, watching tech thought leaders. Obviously Andreesen went very hard right, as did Musk, but just in general the tech elite suddenly and surprisingly turned Trumpy over the last few years; Ackman being a really good case study.

Note that pg himself took a fairly surpising reactionary turn in right about the 2020/2021 timeframe this article describes. A guy who'd always been a left-center pragmatist suddenly was yelling in public tweets about the Campus Left's Desire for Cancellation and whatnot.

Those of us closer to the trenches never really did get the ire here: I mean, yeah, kids are intemperate jerks, but they've always been intemperate jerks. And the tech community... has always celebrated the idea behind the intemperate jerk and an engine for change and disruption. Let the ideas fight it out and pick winners and all, right? Suddenly these billionaires were all snowflakes looking to a political realignment to save them?

This article goes a long way to explaining why.

acdha

I think you’re right but would also add the nascent tech worker organization during the same period. I think many of these guys were bitterly resentful of the idea of workers trying to unionize or otherwise negotiate on a more even level, and that made the general political concerns very personal.

Apocryphon

Not just tech unions but the brief shift in tech labor power also saw phenomena like the Great Resignation, overemployment, quiet quitting, etc.

ryandrake

Yea, no matter how left-leaning the business owners are, the second that labor gets even a smidgen of power, they all suddenly turn into Ronald Reagans.

vuggamie

Maybe Paul Graham was simply protecting his station within the oligarchy all along. The turn toward appeasing fascism is nothing more than the path of least resistance. But I'm sure he'll write some blogs warning of complacency and send some tweets on Musk's nazi propaganda site. He's one of the good ones.

cess11

I've looked at pg:s tweets recently and was surprised that he takes issue with both the genocide in Palestine and the university related disappearings. I had expected him to be more radical and aligned with the current regime.

pbiggar

pg has been yelling about the Campus Left's Desire for Cancellation for years and years (I want to say since 2011?). It's been very frustrating to watch because lots of us identified this as right wing propaganda that (imo) pg was unwittingly participating in.

dist-epoch

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roguecoder

The "kids" are not the ones kidnapping people who disagree with them.

Bill Maher still has a show, despite having spent more than twenty-five years being a racist POS. There is no such thing as "Cancel Culture": there are just people who are SUPER mad that their kids think their racism is bad.

ryandrake

"I have been silenced!"[1] says the side with all three branches of government, owns newspapers and TV stations, business leaders and executives in front of microphones all the time. But, yea--they're the ones that are being silenced.

1: https://leftycartoons.com/2018/08/01/i-have-been-silenced/

Apocryphon

The idea of shutting down ideas is itself an idea that can be fought by other ideas. Those kids do not actually control institutions that can enforce the shutting down of ideas, even if cultural mores might have temporarily aligned with their positions from time to time.

bilbo0s

Well, they're learning from the adults.

Soon as Trump's term started he started removing any mention of slavery from the Smithsonian cuz 'merica.

That's really the concerning thing. Liberals and conservatives not only dislike ideas, they dislike history and facts. That's what makes them dangerous.

On the left it seems you at least had a few moderates who had the good sense to keep the wing nuts in line. We tried the right, thinking we might get better governance, and have discovered, to our collective horror, that the right is wing nuts the whole way down. So you get things like tariffs, and purges, and wild 4$$ ravings about plane crashes being caused by too many blacks.

In the US we need to take things back in hand or it really will be way too late to do anything. These extremists will run the nation right into the ground.

slibhb

Complaining about wokeness doesn't make you right-wing, much less reactionary.

Today, virtually everyone is anti-woke. I give the Trump admin credit for dismantling DEI. It's just unfortunately the only good thing they've done.

quickslowdown

Virtually everyone in the echo chambers you frequent are anti woke. That doesn't apply at scale, where people aren't willing to accept your "woke" shorthand.

My understanding of "woke" is levelling the playing field & being aware of your biases so you can be a better human. It's hard for me to imagine someone being against "all humans are equal & deserve equal access to opportunity, if they have the skill & motivation." I know people are out there who don't believe everyone is equal, maybe that's the "anti woke" you speak of?

Either way, "woke" as a term is poorly defined to the point I immediately disengage when someone starts screeching about it, because it means nothing and now the rest of the conversation is pointless.

dralley

>Today, virtually everyone is anti-woke.

I have yet to hear a coherent description of what "woke" even fucking means that doesn't ultimately dissolve into a pot-pourri of personal grievances.

giraffe_lady

When I was a (white) youth in the just recently desegregated south, they had a word they called me when I stood up for my black friends and neighbors. They don't feel like they can say that one anymore so they got a new word. They mean what they have always meant by it.

chimeracoder

> I have yet to hear a coherent description of what "woke" even fucking means that doesn't ultimately dissolve into a pot-pourri of personal grievances.

Exactly - that's the entire point of a dogwhistle.

roguecoder

"Woke" just means "admitting actual history happened".

It is impossible to be an actual nerd and not be woke. Money-men "founders" have nothing but distain for the geeks that made them rich.

[Edit: I see people don't like this, but are simply down-voting rather than engaging. What is your definition of "woke" then, if not an awareness of America's history?]

AftHurrahWinch

I think it's significant that the comment you're replying to didn't use 'woke'.

> Today, virtually everyone is anti-woke.

I'd extend your claim. Tautologically, everyone is anti-woke.

slibhb

Wokeness isn't hard to define. If you don't know what it is at this point, there's really no helping you.

One of the lessons of the second Trump admin is that "smashing wokeness" may feel good (to people like me for example) but it isn't actually very important, and it doesn't make up for incompetence and lawlessness.

marcellus23

> Today, virtually everyone is anti-woke

I am not a fan of a lot of the tenets associated with "wokeness", but this is just totally wrong.

slibhb

None of the very left people I know would describe themselves as anti-woke...but they all make it very clear that they find wokeness (or whatever you want to call it) ridiculous.

ajross

> Complaining about wokeness doesn't make you right-wing, much less reactionary.

Honestly given the impact, I'd say complaining about "wokeness" pretty much defines "reactionary". Pronouns and flopsy straws never hurt nobody, and kids have been calling their elders racists and rapists and whatnot for generations.

Something happened to convince tech folks that "wokeness" was somehow a threat, when it clearly wasn't and never will be. And that something is interesting, and probably of a piece with whatever was going on in the echo chamber these folks found themselves in.

slibhb

> Pronouns and flopsy straws never hurt nobody

That's not all wokeness is. There's also the anti-merit stuff, which seeks to e.g. get rid of standardized tests or even remove algebra from school curricula. Then there's racial discrimination in hiring and admissions, which is often so cartoonishly stupid you can't make it up (e.g. https://www.tracingwoodgrains.com/p/the-faas-hiring-scandal-...).

> Something happened to convince tech folks that "wokeness" was somehow a threat, when it clearly wasn't and never will be

People hated wokeness so much they became single-issue voters. That was short-sighted, but it doesn't mean they were wrong to oppose wokeness.

bilbo0s

Your comment is actually an example of the echo chambers left and right wing people live and breathe in.

Out in, "what the F are you idiots doing with our economy"-land. There are exactly zero people who give a mosquito's dick about Woke DEI Trumpanzees or whatever.

These are issues important to elites. We tend to live in an echo chamber here on HN, so we think it's important to the guys working as hired hands during the day and the walmart stock shift at night.

Let me tell you, out here in flyover country, no one working at Taco bell cares about what you care about. Woke, anti-Woke, digital privacy, owning the libtards, stopping the right wing conspiracy, they don't care about any of it. There's a lot of pain out here, and they're way too busy to even worry about that useless crap.

We had an election in Wisconsin recently that the right wingers sailed in with millions on millions of dollars to try to win. Ended up losing handily. Why? Because they talked about a lot of things that, while they may have meaning outside of opioid country, don't mean a whole lot inside of it.

I just don't think elites get it. And that's dangerous.

freshfunk

Whether you align or don't align with these politics, I find it generally distasteful when private chats are leaked. There's clearly some expectations of privacy (using Signal with expiring messages) and someone leaking this really destroys trust and open communication. It causes people to not engage in open dialog and to move to even smaller and smaller circles. This ends up stifling open and honest debate and results in more narrow, provincial views of the world.

And for what? For clicks? To tell on someone? To smear someone? What "good" was accomplished from this leak and this article? Some advertiser dollars were made -- probably a trivial amount compared to the value of honest debate among the most powerful in tech.

swatcoder

It's not unreasonable to say that the more outsized influence you have over others, the less privacy you can expect to preserve against them (or the harder you have to work to maintain it), both ethically and practically.

There's pretty wide intolerance for leaking everyday discussion by everyday people, but some people are in a position where their actions can very greatly impact others and some of their relationships and discussions have bearing on that. You can't be surprised if the potentially-impacted seek to seize transparency even where it's not handed to them.

cptroot

For what it's worth, nothing was leaked in this article except for the existence of these chats. There are no screenshots, and very few concrete details other than some information about membership timelines.

This article contains genuine reporting about the right-wing influencers working to shift the opinions of the richest people in the USA. That seems like a large amount of good to me.

giraffe_lady

> And for what? For clicks? To tell on someone? To smear someone?

To stop them from doing what they are trying to do. The goals they are working towards are malign & repugnant and this makes them my adversaries. I'm not interested in a fair fight with a neosegregationist billionaires' coup. They certainly aren't going to give me a sporting chance.

brendoelfrendo

Nah, screw these people. Right wing billionaires actively courting and trying to influence their peers in business and media? This is the smoke-filled room as a group chat with disappearing messages. What good was done here? Well, hopefully, people realize that Marc Andreessen is neglecting his responsibilities to post all day and David Sacks whines when people challenge him. I want to know who's hanging out with Chris Rufo and Tucker Carlson, or introducing oped columnists to Curtis Yarvin, and I want it to be abundantly clear that they suck.

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doom2

HN seems loathe to have any meaningful discussion about or reflection on how and why notable SV figures seemed primed to embrace the Trump/MAGA right (see, for example, quote in OP from Chris Rufo). I don't think it was simply being repelled by the left, as Andreesson has stated before, but an earnest rightward turn.

Also, after articles like these, will calls for "viewpoint diversity" finally apply to conservatives who chase out even the moderates from their spheres? After years of the left being accused of suppressing opposing views, I haven't seen quite the same backlash against conservatives building up ideologically homogenous spaces like the group chats in the article.

femiagbabiaka

There was lots of resentment against unionization efforts from tech workers -- workers who were increasingly seen as ungrateful insurgents trying to mess up a good thing -- and tech oligarchs decided that everyone left of center was exactly like tech workers in Silicon Valley. For them, leftists are infected with a "mind virus", and needing some enlightened elites to save them from themselves. Of course there's no self-reflection about the mind virus that causes folks like Andreesen to use the philosophy of meth addicted neo-Nazis[1] as the ideological basis for their new political order.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Land

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ajross

> I don't think it was simply being repelled by the left, as Andreesson has stated before, but an earnest rightward turn.

The clear contention in the linked article is that it's neither. It's just plain old group think fed by an echo chamber. You take a genuine-but-isolated affront or conflict[1], tie it to one or two other less important side issues[2], and then just line everyone up on the "good" or "bad" side of a line. Before you know it our community is cheering the return of a regime that literally tried to stage a coup and making tortuous excuses for why we need to be deporting four year old citizens with cancer.

It's 4chan. It's just 4chan all over again.

[1] Ex: the anti-elite current within the lefty political sphere that has never really loved the idea of making common cause with SV billionaires.

[2] Middle aged dudes, demographically, tend to be a little squicked out by trans rights and pronouns and LGBTQ+ issues, think paper straws are dumb as fuck, and really hated seeing stuff burned down in protets.

vuggamie

Like all other forums, public and private, HN has an ideological filter. I'm as surprised as the next person that the HN ideological filter turned out not to be permissive enough to discuss the downfall of the free society that fostered its creation.

The oligarchs will not lose their freedom or power and they won't fight (or even inconvenience themselves) to preserve yours. Next time you're reading a blog or a biography of a tech billionaire, remember that they got their wealth from wage theft and they will keep their power by destroying yours.

The only law tech companies -- and the oligarchs that own and control them -- have to obey is allegiance to Trump. No other law will be enforced.

chimeracoder

> Like all other forums, public and private, HN has an ideological filter. I'm as surprised as the next person that the HN ideological filter turned out not to be permissive enough to discuss the downfall of the free society that fostered its creation.

Is it that surprising? As a longtime member, this seems perfectly consistent with the general bent of the website. Collectively, HN has long been extremely comfortable with authoritarianism and far right ideologies, as long as those opinions are expressed in a framing that conveys intellectualism and "civility". Those same expectations are weaponized to drive out dissenting voices, which creates a positive[0] feedback loop.

Honestly, if anything, I'm surprised that this comment thread is (reasonably) lucid, because that's not how a lot of other comment threads recently on similar issues have gone.

[0] In the literal (non-normative) sense: a positive feedback loop is one which amplifies the effects, whether or not the end effects are "good" or "bad".

Jensson

> Collectively, HN has long been extremely comfortable with authoritarianism and far right ideologies, as long as those opinions are expressed in a framing that conveys intellectualism and "civility".

HN also does the same for far left authoritarian ideologies, those are also here and upvoted. I don't see how this pushes out anyone.

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wat10000

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kenjackson

> After years of the left being accused of suppressing opposing views, I haven't seen quite the same backlash against conservatives building up ideologically homogenous spaces like the group chats in the article.

The fundamental difference is that conservative viewpoints support the majority (or plurality), whereas the liberal viewpoints support the minority view. Backlash against the majority view is much harder to come by. And being in the majority and supporting minority perspectives is more uncomfortable, and frankly much easier to opt-out of if there is sufficient discomfort.

roguecoder

If that were true, Republicans would spend a lot less effort on voter suppression & wouldn't have needed to have the Supreme Court repeal the Voting Rights Act in order to win.

kenjackson

This is orthogonal to my point. Modern Republicans are populists who try to appeal to the majority constituency. But their policies are generally so bad (and mean-spirited) that they don't have broad appeal even amongst that group.

dralley

> The fundamental difference is that conservative viewpoints support the majority (or plurality), whereas the liberal viewpoints support the minority view.

Be specific and put up numbers.

There is a wide, wide swath of issues where the "liberal" position is the majoritarian one.

kenjackson

Conservative positions are generally pro-hetero, white, and Christian. Also male, but that is the one where they're not the majority, but very close to 50/50.

There are "liberal" positions that are popular, but generally the current big conservative pushes are against minority populations. E.g., DEI, trans, immigrants (from certain countries), etc...