Is outbound going to die?
122 comments
·April 28, 2025neom
neogodless
For the outsiders here (like me) GTM = Go-To-Market
https://www.gartner.com/en/sales/trends/go-to-market-strateg...
esperent
Thanks, I looked it up and all the results were for Google Tag Manager. That's just close enough to make me shrug and accept it but also be very confused.
h317
Just to share a counterpoint: I think it’s impossible to get a product market fit without active outbound verification. If it’s a brand new project, balancing development commitment and GTM hours is crucial. If I understand your comment correctly, the brand marketing approach you are talking about works for products that verified their need, but if this is a brand new idea/demos committing to GTM instead of active outbound/ emails/ calls/ in person sales may be too costly.
Did you have a chance working on small / startup projects; how you balance development commitment?
neom
I'd seperate PMF hunting and go to market just in case that's not what you're doing. I've done tons of small/startup GTM projects, most notabily I was on the deviantart zero to 1 and the digitalocean zero to 1. I wasn't clear enough. I'm not advocating that you should skip validation or assume a PMF, rather, you shouldn't even be thinking about a full, formal GTM until you've proven repeatable product market fit.
You're right that active, direct customer outreach in early stages, talking to real people at events, user interviews, forcing them to talk to you etc is the only way to validate and refine PMF. But to me, this isn't really "outbound" in the spammy, growth hacky sense that I critiqued above. It's thoughtful customer development: qualitative, deliberate, personal, strategic, and hopefully founder lead.
The real outbound I'm against is that lazy "spray-and-pray" approach, or the obsession with hyper personalized yet fundamentally shallow cold outreach that's mistaken for scalable growth. Real GTM, once you truly have PMF, is actually pretty mechanical and clinical. That said, personally, I've always treated early GTM as inseparable from product refinement. Every interaction early on is about learning and adjusting, (sorry Arch, you just had to go!) not aggressively scaling. "Rapid growth" is alluring, sure, but if it isn't anchored in real market validation, as you're pointing to: it ends up as expensive noise.
sandspar
Am I correct in that much of the 0 to 1 is just like, getting some interactible artifact in front of potential customers, getting them to kick the shit out of it, identifying which of those people liked the artifact best, refining the artifact for THOSE types of people, then repeating the cycle? Like, there's no "market" yet, only your buddy Joe and some guys he knows.
kristianc
By definition, the Digital Ocean Zero to 1 can't have been a thing.
Providing services like virtual machines, managed databases, and Kubernetes clusters wasn't a groundbreaking innovation by the time DO came out in 2011. Even Heroku had been around for four years by then.
garrickvanburen
Don't build until you have received payment from customers. Otherwise you absolutely won't know what to build.
ako
Don’t pay until you’ve seen a working product, otherwise you don’t know what you’ll get…
theturtle32
This. I actually already internalized fatigue and annoyance about being cold contacted starting at LEAST 15 years ago. If you reach out to me to try to sell me your product, my gut reaction is to block you and never buy.
LaundroMat
Spoken like a real Theodore Levitt-fan!
I've been reading up on 70s and 80s technology firm histories (including game consoles) and it strikes me that marketing back then was much more strategic, much more about understanding the market, the value customers seek and how to deliver it.
Marketing today feels like a grift.
K0balt
For those rare companies that are trying to create a market out of nothing for a truly innovative product where there are no competitors or self identified customers, I can sympathize with the hollow allure of firehose marketing - but not only is this kind of startup vanishingly rare (and extremely risky), it’s also the wrong approach even for them.
If you are trying to build stairs into thin air, you need to have a constantly evolving “customer hypothesis” until you can nail down who your customer is. The only way to do that is with founder-led personal marketing, preferably F2F and on-premises. You must meet your customers at the place and time of need. If you are truly solving an unsolved problem, literally no one will know how to solve that problem with your product except you, or maybe even why the problem needs to be solved.
This is more market research than business development.
Depending on your market, moat, and vertical alignment with your customers, it -may- also be important to build brand awareness or “buzz” aside from customer contact, and this often will be non-personalized. For this, as well, firehose approaches like email are ineffective or even counterproductive. Keep in mind, this is marketing adjacent PR, not marketing. Don’t get carried away.
If you just need validation to feel “real”, stick to cheap office swag. It makes great memorabilia for the inevitable swag graveyard that successful founders usually create on their way to becoming successful founders. It also helps to combat hubris if you keep the graveyard on subtle display in your office.
neom
Sure I am! A great read: https://hbr.org/2004/07/marketing-myopia
Marketing was always a grift when it was done to get rich quick, yesterday or today. Products, brands, businesses... take a long time to bake!
huhkerrf
I've got the misfortune of being connected to former sales colleagues on LinkedIn, so I see the kind of posts they are liking.
And I can't tell you how many of them are complaining when people complain about cold calling and mass sales emails. I've got a fairly even take on sales, but the absolute entitlement they feel about your time...
Outbound can't die soon enough.
kjs3
Amen. Extra special are the ones that when you complain about outbound, you get "well how else are we supposed to sell things!". As though "smiling and dialing" or carpet bomb spamming are the only possible ways. Appropriating other peoples time isn't enough; if we don't like being subjected to the entitlement, we're supposed to figure out how to do their job for them.
adriand
I’m so irritated by the constant emails I get as part of automated drip marketing campaigns. Many of them start with outright falsehoods (“I tried calling you”, “I spoke to one of your colleagues”, etc.) and they almost all pretend like they have not added me to a drip marketing campaign, ie they act like it’s a fully personalized email. Newer ones include clearly AI-generated summaries pulled from my online presence (“I see that you graduated from X college”, etc.) It’s so fundamentally dishonest. Why would I enter into a commercial relationship with you if our first interaction is you misrepresenting yourself or worse, outright lying to me?
tpxl
> Why would I enter into a commercial relationship with you if our first interaction is you misrepresenting yourself or worse, outright lying to me?
A 'security' consultancy posted an article on LinkedIn on 'critical security vulnerabilities' they found on the web app from a company I worked at. The company hired them to do an assessment. The most critical vulnerability was a bug on a login page preventing registration.
So not only does cold calling work, bad-mouthing on social media seems to be a viable strategy. I'd have blacklisted them.
Suppafly
>Amen. Extra special are the ones that when you complain about outbound, you get "well how else are we supposed to sell things!".
These people live in a different reality than the rest of us, one they've likely taken steps to convince themselves is true so they don't have to feel bad about their actions. I met someone years ago that was basically a professional email spammer that described his job as marketing and sending newsletters and was convinced that people were OK receiving spam and that he was providing a service by spamming garbage to people who didn't sign up for it.
chickenzzzzu
Sounds like roughly the same process defense industry professionals take to rationalize their "career" ^.^
hsuduebc2
LinkedIn itself is a horror, but sales and HR people on it are the final circle of Dante's hell.
Gigachad
Used to sit in the office with the cold call sales guys. Was crazy how often after the call ended they would start shit talking the contact for not buying the software.
esperent
It's not crazy at all, it's basic human psychological self defense. There are much better defense mechanisms that can be learned, but shit talking the opposition is basically the standard fall back psychological defense mechanism for human beings who have failed at something.
joenot443
Sometimes I wonder if we as internet people are special in that it seems we can pretty immediately spot vanilla-LLM generated text. I'm sure others have noticed the same, but maybe 20% of my inbound recruiter pings on LinkedIn are straight from GPT and subsequently are immediately dismissed.
I posted a job on UpWork last month and probably 60% of the replies were LLM, some of them seemingly automated as they came in moments after I posted. Obviously these were immediately rejected.
Is this something we'll have to get used to?
I got my first internship in 2015 by cold-emailing the CEO of a Waterloo startup that I thought was really cool. At the time, reaching out directly over email with a thoughtful and earnest introduction was a good way to set yourself apart. I'm not sure that's the case anymore.
kjs3
Is this something we'll have to get used to?
On one hand, I have potential candidates that I mentor who gleefully tell me how smart they are that they have LLM-backed bots replying to every remotely related job post on every platform. The idea that this approach might not be appreciated is generally met with either profound disbelief or dismissal as "luddite attitudes" or some such. "AI is the new hotness, how can it be bad that we're using it!"
On the other hand, I talk to HR folks, who are just as pleased with themselves that they've deployed ML-driven candidate filtering apps so only candidates that are 'perfect' matches for my job description are even seen by a person. And they do not appreciate it when I point out that must be why the only resumes I've seen from them are buzzword-bingo lists of 'qualifications' obviously included to game the filters, as most subsequent interviews make clear.
So...it seems to be an arms race that we all loose. Get used to it.
tonyedgecombe
>Is this something we'll have to get used to?
The problem for UpWork and their customers is what happens when 99% of the replies are LLM generated. The same when everything Google links to is LLM generated or even worse when their LLM summary is generated from LLM content they have been slurping up. The whole sad edifice may well collapse in on itself.
prescriptivist
I was listening to a podcast the other day and one of the commercials I think was from Facebook (IIRC, it could have been Google...). It was directed toward students, so I'm pretty sure it was an organic ad, but there were several aspects to it that felt fairly personalized to me (bicycling and outdoor related) that I actually wondered if it was generated on the fly using an LLM.
FB knows me and what I like and they have enough of data on my searches that they could customize a pretty relevant audio ad that, now with LLMs, can feel really relevant and natural, especially with audio gen being so good.
My point though is I wasn't sure if it was LLM generated or not and that's stuck with me. Random ChatGPT copy-pasta is easy for me to pick out – most people do not write that well. But a sophisticated application of this tech probably approaches the it-could-go-either-way territory.
ToucanLoucan
I genuinely loathe the over-familiar vibe you get from targeted ads in such a way where no matter how relevant to me the given product is, if you advertise it like that, I'm immediately suspicious of your intentions. If I'm talking about longboards a lot around my house and get ads for longboards, I would go so far as to say I would go out of my way to not buy any of the brands shown to me.
I think this is an underrated metric in terms of how advertisers are organizing their spend; the creep factor. If your first impression with a potential customer is creeping them out, how are the odds of them giving you a sale?
Just my 0.02.
LaundroMat
I have a similar annoyance: the obvious ways marketeers try to get me in their funnel (I call it conversion aversion). It's hard to measure, so it's not taken into account by marketeers, but I'm quite certain the amount of people annoyed by conversion optimization tactics represent a lot of potentially lost sales.
danielodievich
By virtue of what I do, I interact with quite a few of our SDRs who do outbound calls all day long AND I am frequently on the receiving end of someone else's calls. It is a hard job. Attention is a very scarce commodity and the shotgunning of the LLM swill that has completely taken over the outbound has made it even scarcer.
A fun thing happened recently. At sales kick off I was having lunch in the mountain skiing and a few young SDRs joined me with their burritos. We were chatting and I got an inbound call from some random numberI picked up and sure enough it was an SDR from some random SaaS that's been trying and failing to reach me. I told that SDR, hey, you got me and 3 of your fellow SDRs here, take your best shot, you will be rated by people who do your job. Ha, he did pretty good! Our SDRs gave him a bunch of sh*t about not using the right call dialer management. It was a "closed lost" opportunity for them.
kjs3
That's like the "is that your pitch?" scene from Boiler Room.
cpncrunch
Whether it's crafted by AI or not, outbound is spam, and only scammy companies use it these days.
havefunbesafe
Every enterprise SaaS company with a sales team uses outbound.
xmodem
Doesn't make it any less spammy/scammy
amanaplanacanal
So you agree then?
null
kjs3
Quod erat demonstrandum?
jasonthorsness
Somehow my personal phone number leaked into some database, and I get multiple SaaS calls per day. I welcome the day when it's all AI because I hate to be rude to real people but these sorts of calls almost force it.
ryandrake
I'm less hesitant to be rude to telemarketers anymore. Yes, they have a shitty job, yes, it's not their fault that your number is on their list. But it's a job they are choosing to do, knowing they are an integral part of the problem. Kind of like the "Contractors on the death star" ethical example.
If someone was paid to kick my puppy, I'm not going to just be OK with it because, "hey it's their job, and we're all struggling."
Gigachad
As soon as I notice they are reading from the script and aren’t the delivery person waiting with my package I just hang up immediately. No comment, I don’t even give them a chance to try to keep me on the line.
criddell
Being rude might be justifiable, but it still doesn't feel good.
tehjoker
> But it's a job they are choosing to do
Yes, low wage workers have so many wonderful opportunities to not get evicted or starve. Don't confuse middle-class and wealthy workers with poorer ones.
Suppafly
>I hate to be rude to real people
Just reminded yourself that they've chosen to remove themselves from the pool of 'real people' by participating scammy activities. They're the ones that have broken the social contract and treating them with respect just lets them continue to believe they aren't doing anything wrong.
adriand
Same thing happened to me. I probably get ten calls per day. I just don’t answer the phone any more unless I recognize the number. It’s very annoying. If I accidentally answer a spam call, most of the time I’ll just hang up. But I’m also very annoyed with telephone companies. Why isn’t there a “report spam” button for phone calls?
AlwaysRock
Wild take. Almost every single company of a certain size does outbound. Just like how almost every company sends endless marketing emails. Yeah its spammy. But it also converts some small percentage of users so they will continue to do it.
It's spammy. It isnt scammy.
paulcole
How do you define "spam"?
gibibit
To me, spam is unsolicited email or phone calls. People or organizations contacting me when I haven't requested they do so.
paulcole
OK, was just curious. I only think of it as unsolicited mass email. If something's tailored to me or a call, I just think of it as part of doing business.
jppope
Attractive person walks up to you and asks you for your number - not spam.
Unattractive person walks up to you and asks you for your number - spam.
Company has a thing I need and calls me at the right time - not spam.
Company calls me up when I'm not looking to buy something - spam.
snowwrestler
Ha, this is like the old recruiting joke where the manager drops half the resumes in the trash can and says “sorry, we only hire lucky people here.”
You’re right, of course, timing and fit are the things that work. I don’t think LLMs are going to magically solve either.
Suppafly
>How do you define "spam"?
You know the answer. Only assholes need clarification that unsolicited contact is spam.
paulcole
I mean there's a legal definition of it. I personally don't think cold calling someone to make a sale is spam. The caveat being that if they tell me to not call again, I won't.
And LinkedIn messages don't bother me as long as they follow the rules of the site which don't prohibit cold outreach.
tiffanyh
While the post has good points - you can't talk about this subject without defining what price points you're selling at.
A company will have radically different sales motions if they are selling a good/service costing:
* < $5k
* $5-50k
* $50-500k
* $500k +
Seems to me this post is probably targeting the top 1 (or 2) bullets/segments.neom
You always make great points. For my comments, I was mainly thinking of the <$50k range where I've worked most. I did do a b2g startup that failed in part because the motions are fucking nuts jfc. So to your point: sales motions should differ dramatically based on price point. For enterprise deals ($500k+), strategic outbound still makes perfect sense, tho I'd argue you should prime the market first with a brand awareness campaign.
Denzel
Thank you for narrowing your claims, you might want to update your post at the top of the thread to call out your ADV/ACV assumption.
I appreciate all the experience and advice you’re offering on this thread! Take my feedback as a nitpick: as I was reading through your top post, my initial thought was “this isn’t true all the time” because I spent 6 years in 2 separate startups with significant and successful outbound sales where our ADV > $100k.
One company stayed private and profitable while driving revenue north of $80M/yr; and the other company sold enough long-term enterprise contracts to be acquired by a bigger $B company.
Context is king.
garrickvanburen
radically different?
I mean, aside from being comfortable with longer sales cycles and taking the time to build more advocates on the enterprise side, I haven't seen a substantial difference across this spectrum (<1K is very different). All are best when the relationship-building is first and foremost.
rorylaitila
I've always been a relationship seller. I agree that a lot of the AI hype surrounding outbound is going to be short lived. When everyone can do infinite outbound, no one will be able to break through. The AI arms race to get a slight edge on response rates is going to destroy that channel.
I've been working on https://humancrm.io to scratch my own itch. A CRM that helps me stay focused on relationships. I'm explicitly not adding any AI or automation to it.
codazoda
I’ve been looking for something to get better at my personal contacts. I’m not really on LinkedIn. Maybe I’ll get on just to try this, but reach out if I could try it some other way.
rorylaitila
Thanks! I sent an invite to the email on your profile.
emmanueloga_
Looks great, is it comparable to Monica [1] or is it more business oriented?
--
rorylaitila
Thanks! HumanCRM is similar to Monica in its people focus (I also add my friends into HumanCRM), but is definitely more oriented towards professional networks. I'm also starting out with more focused feature set: emphasizes connecting with people rather than recording information.
So there is only a handful of primary entities: Humans, Leads, Deals, Communities (thus no Pets, Contacts, Tasks, Photos, Documents, etc).
I might expand it to capture more data in the future, but waiting to see what users make use of.
skeeter2020
This resonates with me; I hope you're ahead of the curve and we see a time when there's a non-AI valuation multiplier for products & companies.
rorylaitila
Thanks, I hope so too! I think by the end of the year sales AI disillusionment will really start set in and I'll have polished HumanCRM enough by then. All of the existing CRM players are going heavy into automation so this might stand out.
dccoolgai
I would put a finer/pithier point on it:
The "attention economy" is out, the "trust economy" is in.
tonyedgecombe
There is a job waiting for you at McKinsey.
mathgeek
> Eventually, humans are going to get used to the constant spam and start mentally tuning out these hyper personalized initiatives.
Maybe I just live in a bubble, but don’t most people already tune out ads and marketing emails while online?
SpicyLemonZest
Most people do that except in the rare instance where they find a product that really satisfies their needs. But farming those rare instances is precisely the goal of outbound marketing. You had a meeting just yesterday about how it'll take 9 months to staff up a team that can foobar your widgets, and sitting in your inbox there's an email from someone who says they can start foobaring your widgets next week. The same email went out to a bunch of people who already have a team or don't run widgets, but neither you nor the salesperson cares about them.
masfuerte
> You had a meeting just yesterday about how it'll take 9 months to staff up a team that can foobar your widgets
Who leaves that meeting and starts searching for a solution in their spam email?
Gigachad
The ads are kind of sneaky these days. It’ll be in the form of astroturfing, paying influencers to shill stuff, using bots to downvote negative reviews, etc.
carefulfungi
AI good enough to pitch me but not good enough to read my email and alert me of products I should actually care about seems like the dystopian outcome ad-tech typically reaches.
tehjoker
I think for that to happen, you'd have to let a sophisticated AI read your emails, which maybe possible with the right home setup, but otherwise you're sending them to be read by a large corporation's.
zcmack
Eventually, humans are going to get used to the constant spam and start mentally tuning out these hyper personalized initiatives.
haven't we already been doing this since email templating was a thing?
SoftTalker
I have. Spam email is obvious from the subject line and the sender. Those messages get deleted unread. I very rarely am tricked into opening one.
deadbabe
This is why the “Lean Startup” movement popular in early 2010s ultimately died: The market eventually got tired of every new startup being some vaporware product market fit test where a product wasn’t even fully built out because the founders wanted to push risk onto customers instead of going all in.
So now you have to do all the big things upfront and come to market with a fully polished professional offering to be taken seriously.
I've been doing GTM for I dunno... 20+ years now, I'm told I'm excellent at it. Never liked outbound, I've never found it's a good part of a GTM, and tbh it's always something I've considered mostly belongs with the folks who think "growth hacking" is a thing...I strongly believe in the pillars of traditional, early 1900s GTM... that is, build real trust, have a credible brand story, get word of mouth going by consistently exceeding expectations, and let your delighted customers become your most effective marketing channel. If you're going to do outbound, go to events or find places real customers might be hanging out and not annoyed by you talking to them. Inbound marketing and community-driven growth strategies have always seemed significantly more durable to me. When people genuinely need and seek out your product, when the recommendation comes from trusted peers rather than relentless cold emails or hyper personalized spam, your sales become robust, resilient, and scalable in a sustainable way, the problems with sales is they're always chasing the next lead. Maybe outbound might yield short term wins...but personally I've always thought... if you want lasting competitive advantage, invest your energy in creating a brand people truly want to share, that's how I've always thought about it anyway, and people have always seemed to enjoy my brands.
Outbound will never die, but fingers crossed lazy-ass sales and marketing does!