Do viruses trigger Alzheimer's?
159 comments
·March 23, 2025A_D_E_P_T
Very interesting.
Memantine is an antiviral/nootropic (NMDA agonist) that's considered one of the best conventional therapies for Alzheimer's. For e.g., https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32914577/
Amantadine is a related compound that's seemingly more potent as an antiviral, and less potent at the NMDA receptor.
Medical hypothesis: This makes me wonder if amantadine might be an effective drug in Alzheimer's treatment. It would come as a total shock to the med chem community if memantine's activity had to do with its suppression of viral replication, and much less to do with its activity at the NMDA receptor.
As an aside, the Russians have a similar drug called bromantane which is sold OTC as a sort of mental energy booster. It's not really a stimulant, and its effects are mild enough for daily use. It might also be very interesting in this context. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bromantane
jadbox
I've had some experience here and will add a couple notes.
Memantine has been useful for slowing down Alzheimer's and temporarily improving responsiveness. However, Memantine has not shown any effectiveness in reversing Alzheimer's or fully stopping its progression (sadly). Memantine does seem to increase self-awareness clarity but, counterintuitively, seems to also disrupt memory recall. Word of caution, in one rat study, I had read that Memantine could have long term side-effects of hindering memory recall.
Amantadine has a fascinating structure, but it seems like it's not super useful by itself from studies. It seems more like a very promising 'base structure' to build future compounds upon (like Memantine and bromantane).
Anyways, this family is rather interesting for a number of its properties and are still not very well known or understood. Please do share any more insights.
A_D_E_P_T
Random notes:
- Unlike amantadine, chemically-related tromantadine is potently effective against HSV. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC185716/
- There's another paper which may shed some light on the herpes-Alzheimer's connection, and it notes that treatment with tromantadine (among others) is starkly beneficial: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5935641/
- If the connection is established, it could be that a tromantadine-like molecule with activity against herpes simplex -- plus mild activity at the NMDA receptor reducing excitotoxicity and protecting neurons -- could potentially be a good prophylactic against Alzheimer's.
- It would be interesting to test amide-linked amantadine-phenylalanine and memantine-phenylalanine conjugates. Such things would probably penetrate the BBB very well, as they could take advantage of amino acid transporters. (The LAT1 transporter in particular.) And they resemble tromantadine -- where it is said that the amide itself is a necessary moiety in countering HSV. Structure: https://i.ibb.co/7tS4MGGL/Amantadine-Phe.png
DrAwdeOccarim
Are you a drug developer by trade? You certainly think like someone who’s seen some SARs…
johnisgood
I believe most nootropics work for Alzheimer's, probably Huperzine A, too. Perhaps even Noopept.
NMDA agonists and acetylcholinesterase (they inhibit the breakdown of the neurotransmitter acetylcholine) in general.
Benadryl (DPH) and first-generation antihistamines are the opposite of that, they can cause delirium (and it messes up your memory and cognition in general) and whatnot, they are anticholinergic, some more than others. I had anticholinergic toxicity from DPH before.
I take Alpha-GPC (a very soluble form of choline) and Huperzine A for cognition / memory, others couple it with racetams (e.g. piracetam, pramiracetam, aniracetam, etc.).
TechDebtDevin
My primary care doctor is telling all of her patients not to take Zyrtec for an anti-histamine because it is causing dementia side effects in her older patients. Antecdotal but interesting.
johnisgood
For the reasons I mentioned, yes. :)
But Zyrtec is second-generation. It shows 20,000-fold or greater selectivity for the H1 receptor over the five muscarinic acetylcholine receptors, and hence does not exhibit anticholinergic effects, so it should be OK. May still cause drowsiness, however.
OutOfHere
I advise against taking aGPC because it is very much associated with TMAO production due to adverse gut fermentation, leading to harmful effects on blood vessels. Switch to citicoline which doesn't look to have this issue.
johnisgood
Yes, Citicoline is great, too, I agree. As long as it is not Choline bitartrate (most common form) which is pretty useless, the body cannot utilize it whatsoever.
As for what you said regarding alpha-GPC, it is somewhat true:
> Although alpha-GPC is largely considered to be safe due to its structural feature, multiple studies have indicated that a high plasma choline level is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease through trimethylamine-N-oxide (TMAO) produced by gut microbiota from choline. Some studies have highlighted that TMAO increases the likelihood of stroke and cardiovascular disease.11
> In line with this observation, a recent animal model study revealed that even though alpha-GPC supplements improved neurological functions, they increased the risk of atherosclerosis in hyperlipidemic rats. In the future, scientists must elucidate the possible mechanism that associates alpha-GPC with increased cardiovascular risks.
https://examine.com/supplements/alpha-gpc/?show_conditions=t...
https://www.news-medical.net/health/Alpha-GPC-What-Science-S...
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8708068/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002192582...
That said, "However, the currently available evidence is preliminary in nature, so randomized controlled trials and large cohort studies are needed to confirm these findings.".
TechDebtDevin
My doc put my on amantadine for post covid symptoms and I felt like it gave me mild dementia and had to stop :/
edit: Fun fact, the side effects were so bad I made a very big mishap that destroyed a (very very expensive) f-class flight simulator.
chriscappuccio
Memantine is an NMDA antagonist like ketamine and other dissociatives.
OutOfHere
Memantine is in no way a disassociative though at therapeutic doses. It also has dopaminergic activity which manifests gradually over months while the NMDAr antagonist activity dials down.
zhivota
I think there is something to viruses being a big agent of aging. I'm 40 and recently came down with a bad case of norovirus, followed by some kind of flu-like thing. 3 weeks of illness. Afterwards, I felt as if I had aged 10 years, and looking into the mirror it was like looking at what I will probably look like at 50.
It made me wonder how much of aging is mediated by damage from infection, which we fight off, but come out of weaker for it.
It certainly makes me want to double check all my vaccines, and once my kids are older, practice a little better hygiene including things like masking up in tight spaces (pretty much impossible with a 6 and 9 year old in the house, they are the vector right now).
AnotherGoodName
One that i recently experienced is 'reactive athritis' which is a form of athritis commonly experienced after a stomach virus.
If you start looking into it it's due to an immune response that occurs in people with the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HLA-B27 gene and that gene is associated with a large number of athritis risk factors (but also resistance to a lot of things including HIV).
gambiting
I've had the same. It took over 5 years for me to go back to normal. Apparently somewhat common, but rarely talked about. And any virus can cause it.
OutOfHere
Reactive arthritis is easy to treat using a course of appropriate antibiotics, although the right choice may vary. A good powerful blend of probiotics in a capsule also helps tremendously although it's not sufficient without the antibiotic. I have used this approach to treat it. For an acute case, also consider activated carbon. Obviously the three all oppose each other, so take them at separate times.
As for pathogenic viruses in the gut, immune boosting supplements, glutamine, and collagen should help with treatment.
chneu
Getting sick is a very stressful period, physically and mentally. It absolutely ages you.
We're sick far less often nowadays. Common illnesses were more common in previous generations. Back in the day "everyone got measles".
While people fear being "too clean" there is also a downside to being "too exposed".
eumenides1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hygiene_hypothesis
The hygiene hypothesis does not suggest that having more infections during childhood would be an overall benefit
randomopining
Important to take certain antioxidants and supplements after. Plus whole good food. Focusing heavily on good sleep and rest (so hard). And doing some level of exercise, but even just starting with walking.
I had a post viral effect after Covid. But maybe 2 months. Then I finally took it easy with working out and it went away.
acallaha
> A group of researchers mostly based at Columbia University are testing whether valacyclovir, an antiviral used against HSV1, can slow down cognitive decline in people with early stage Alzheimer’s. Between 2018 and 2024, the researchers recruited 120 patients and treated half with the antiviral.
Outsider view: while I'm excited we're making progress, I can't shake a feeling of sadness that the best we could manage was a study this small, started 7 years ago. If it's as pivotal as the article suggests, one would hope we could get more than 60 people in the experimental arm (IIUC this antiviral is widely prescribed, well-tolerated, and off-patent). Nonetheless, excited to see the outcome
bkfunk
> off-patent
Well there’s your problem: no one can make money off of it, unless they develop a new delivery mechanism, etc.
Patents encourage developing new medicines, but not developing new knowledge about (never mind use of) old medicine.
The solution (in the US) is obvious: federal funding of research that stands to help lots of people but not make lots of money. Since most of these patients (in the US) are going to be on Medicare, there could be huge potential cost savings to the taxpayer: memory care is EXPENSIVE, so even the paltry amount covered by Medicare racks up (and the opportunity costs of people paying for private memory care is enormous).
But instead of increasing funding for this kind of life- AND MONEY-saving research, this administration is freezing and slashing research funding, and specifically targeting Columbia for political/Trump’s-petty-grudge reasons.
absolutelastone
I suspect the lucrative patent system has helped create rather exorbitant costs and restrictions for performing trials, which hinders non-patentable research, ironically.
But both the federal and state govts do fund tons of such research. Some states have specific Alzheimer's trials and funds. I would think they could handle dirt-cheap therapies like this without getting into sweeping political changes. Though I suspect the solution is much harder than just run a trial with the drugs we have, or else we would already be hearing about mountains of evidence from doctors using the medications off-label.
bookofjoe
>Well there’s your problem: no one can make money off of it, unless they develop a new delivery mechanism, etc.
You hit the nail on the head. Ketamine is a generic drug that costs next to nothing; Spravoto (ketamine-derived nasal spray) is already a billion dollar/year drug for Johnson & Johnson, with prospects of $5 billion/year.
Source: https://archive.ph/rzqxt [Wall Street Journal]
alzamos
Worth mentioning that the evidence says that patents don't have an effect on new drug creation/inventions. Evidence is collected here http://www.dklevine.com/general/intellectual/againstfinal.ht..., pretty neat to know that Italy/Switzerland had a patentless pharma industry until quite recently.
Having said that, I think you're right that under this system, research/capital definitely gets directed in a different way.
missedthecue
A major reason Alzheimer's research hasn't advanced in the last 25 years is that patents aren't long enough to study it. Remember: patents don't kick in after the FDA approved your drug. It's after you develop it. That's why ozempic is going off-patent in a just few years even though it's a new product. They patented it a long time ago.
With Alzheimer's though, the clinical trials are going to take a long time. Probably 10 years at least, because our current understanding of the disease is that it begins in your mid to late 40s, and only manifests as severe memory loss decades later. Our current method of trying to treat it is like putting someone in pallatiave care with stage 12 cancer through chemo. Just doesn't work.
But drug companies have no choice because if they run 10-15 year trials, their drug will be off patent before the FDA/EMA even looks at it.
If I were King for a day, one thing I'd do is a blanket 40 year patent life on Alzheimer's drugs. It's worth the cost. This disease will bankrupt every nation otherwise.
cyberax
This is bullshit. Drug research costs money, A LOT OF MONEY. A new drug right now costs somewhere around $5 billion, mostly because 90% of drugs fail in trials.
mRNA vaccines, semaglutide, mAB therapies, none of these would have happened without patents as an incentive.
cyberax
> Well there’s your problem: no one can make money off of it
You can patent new applications of an existing drug. This has been somewhat of a problem, as companies can just look at how drugs are being used off-label, and patent some of these uses.
missedthecue
People are doing this with vetinary drugs too. A company called Tarsus Pharmaceuticals recently developed a drug called xdemvy by repurposing an anti-flea drug for dogs. It basically cures an eyelid condition called demodex blepharitis. They're a $2b company now.
They barely had to do any new science. It just took some creativity and almost $250m worth of clinical trials.
tim333
Quite an interesting attempt to advance the general process is DeepMind's project to make a cell simulation so you can try chucking in drugs into the simulation and see what they would do quicker than in the lab/patients. They are talking about having a simple cell up in five years. Hassabis talking about it: https://youtu.be/CEOOMYxMvY4
absolutelastone
This article is all the supporting evidence without any of the setbacks and failures at reproducing the correlations. There have been attempts at showing benefits with antivirals before. Just not a full-on double-blind study apparently. I recall reading about a study with high doses that showed no benefit for people in early stages.
The 7 years time duration probably comes from the size of the study and also how long it is believed to take to get benefit if there is one. I would think if it really worked they would have stopped early for ethics reasons because they should also give the treatment to the placebo arm rather than watch them decline while knowing how to prevent it.
epidemiology
>If it's as pivotal as the article suggests
Let's be honest, this is a longshot.
onewheeltom
90% of drug trials fail. Shows you how primitive our accepted practice is. Where else is a 90% failure considered to be an acceptable outcome?
esperent
Ycombinator startups?
pedalpete
We cannot ignore that we know so little about how Alzheimer's works, we are potentially lumping multiple diseases under the same label.
The amyloid hypothesis doesn't have to be wrong for the T3D to be true, and the viral potential to also be true if we are looking at 3-5 different diseases that have similar presentations. This also somewhat suggests why it may be the most common form of dementia.
I work in the neurotech/sleeptech space (https://affectablesleep.com) and there is a strong link between sleep quality and Alzheimer's. It is theorized that AD is more common in women due to the lack of sleep through child-rearing and menopause, which decreases the brain's ability to remove amyliod/tau. Of course, this is only relevant to the amyliod hypothesis.
vjk800
I don't know what it looks like from the perspective of someone in the field, but just as someone who is interested in this sort of stuff, it seems more and more plausible that quite many of diseases that have grown more prevalent in the last century, especially autoimmune diseases, are cause by viruses.
It makes sense: the viral pressure has increase by a lot due to both increase in population density and increased travel across the world. At the same time there has been an increase in many autoimmune diseases, many types of cancer, Alzheimer's disease, etc. Also, from some proven cases, we know that viruses can trigger serious diseases (MS disease, type 1 diabetes).
strawpoll-foe
I have both T1D and MS. For MS, one leading idea is that getting exposed to Mono later in life can trigger the disease. There’s solid evidence for this.
For T1D, it’s similar - there’s a notion that you’re genetically predisposed to it and certain types of infections during adolescence can cause it to manifest.
I’ve had discussions with researchers in the space and apparently certain autoimmune diseases happen less often in “grubbier” parts of the world (their words, not mine) even when the population density is high, and an inference here is that >early exposure< to certain infections might not trigger some of these problematic autoimmune reactions.
Side note: these diseases aren’t fun, especially when working in tech. I’m appreciative of those dedicating their lives to researching autoimmune disease.
sigmoid10
For MS in particular there's several EBV mRNA vaccines in clinical trials - not just to prevent mono itself, but also to prevent long term complications (theoretically including MS) for people who already had it.
delusional
> I’ve had discussions with researchers in the space and apparently certain autoimmune diseases happen less often in “grubbier” parts of the world
Is that corrected for mortality? It seems like an analysis like that would be quite prone to survivor bias.
giantg2
Has viral pressure really increased? It seems stuff spread globally a few generations ago with things like the flu in the early 1900s. Even in the middle ages you had stuff like the plague.
What has changed is the sterility of our environment. Better bathing, more hand washing, food safety rules, etc. There have been theories that autoimmune diseases might be increasing because we aren't exposed to enough "normal" pathogens.
I'm highly suspicious that higher viral pressures are the cause of increasing dementia rates, as it seems we're exposed to less today.
vjk800
Bacterial, fungal and parasitic load has lessened, for sure, due to sterility of the environment, because many of those come from exposure to animals and plants. But viral load from viruses that spread from human-to-human and live exclusively in humans has increased because there are more humans and they spread the diseases around the world more effectively than before.
Yes, we probably get way less pathogens overall than we used to, but at the same time we get more pathogens that live exclusively on humans (such as respiratory viruses).
hn_throwaway_99
> But viral load from viruses that spread from human-to-human and live exclusively in humans has increased because there are more humans and they spread the diseases around the world more effectively than before.
This seems like pure conjecture to me, and without any actual evidence to support it, I'm disinclined to believe it. My guess is that the number of people any one individual interacts with has gone down considerably since the beginning of the century, and earlier. Before the advent of the car, shared forms of travel were much more common. People do much less forms of basic shopping than they used to given the rise of the Internet. Air travel, while much faster, is much less crowded that the ship travel of earlier generations.
Nux
Agreed. We've had this immune system battling stuff non-stop throughout evolution and now we're living in these clinical environments and it's going haywire.
Not to mention we're poisoning ourselves with all sorts of novel stuff, especially poor hi-carb nutrition, ultra processed food and pollution from various sources that act as endocrine disruptors and God knows what else.
crowselect
Time scale. Viral load has increased dramatically over what it was like 1000 years ago. The change over the past 100 years is all lifespan due to antibiotics and the sterility another comment is pointing the finger at. It’s possible that viral load + lifespan = cancer, dementia, autoimmune stuff, etc.
Mo3
My girlfriend has Crohn's disease that can be directly correlated to food poisoning while on vacation. Now years later I can't even count the times I've read and heard exactly the same story from other people with Crohn's disease. A simple search for "Crohn's food poisoning" turns up hundreds of results. I can't believe this is not being investigated with higher priority
spondylosaurus
Another comment in this post mentions reactive arthritis and HLA-B27; there's some evidence suggesting "permanent" autoimmune conditions in HLA-B27+ people also might come from viral triggers.
emeril
most of those with crohn's would likely have developed it at some point - 99% of those with food poisoning won't develop crohn's
kwertyoowiyop
Can we take it as proven that the rate of these diseases has increased? I wonder if in the past some conditions we now classify as particular diseases were considered a normal part of aging, perhaps at most getting a blanket classification of “senility”.
bloqs
Immunocompromisation due to chronic inflammation from dietary issues and stress in addition to the above as well
theoreticalmal
Have you read Dr. Casey Means’ book on this?
idiotsecant
Literally every time in the history of the universe when someone has structured a sentence like this, in this context, whoever they're talking about ends up being a giant crackpot. I'm not saying this person is a crackpot, just that the pattern recognition systems are throwing off some alarms.
anovikov
The frequently cited "stress" thing of modern lives is just eyebrows-raising. Do anyone actually believe that lives of people 100 or 200 years ago have been less stressful?
vjk800
Physical activity gives an outlet to stress, and people used to get way more of it. Stress and physical effort are supposed to go hand-in-hand; you feel stressed, which gives you a boost of adrenaline, which you need to physically fight back whatever caused the stress. When the physical component is missing, the stress just lingers and wreaks havoc on your body.
theoreticalmal
I think the idea is that the cells are stressed due to inflammation due to diet, rather than psychological feelings of stress
giantg2
It's possible they had better support systems due to larger families, church being more prominent, etc.
ta12653421
well, you may read & discuss this one? :)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_common_misconceptions_...
phkahler
Work is not the same as stress. People today (especially near the bottom of the ladder) are not in control of their own destiny like they used to be. It's a different kind of stress.
pretzellogician
And obesity.. there are several adenoviruses associated with it. Example: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41366-021-00805-6
(Although the article takes pains to say that obesity is multifactorial, conflicting evidence in humans, etc.)
Melatonic
Bacterial infections can also trigger autoimmune diseases - it's not just viruses.
Realistically immune systems are extremely complex and I suspect there are probably lots of environmental triggers beyond viruses and bacteria as well
roenxi
The part of these sort of conversations that makes me wary is this understanding that "Alzheimer's" is a disease with a single cause. I think it is beyond question that some viruses trigger Alzheimer's, because viruses can do pretty much anything. The real question that they're studying is to what extent do viruses cause Alzheimer's. If it turns out that most Alzheimer's cases are a Herpes symptom then that sounds big.
pedalpete
The way I've looked at it (and I work in the adjacent space of neurotech/sleeptech) is that it is likely we are assigning multiple diseases with the label of Alzheimer's because we don't understand the disease well enough.
FollowingTheDao
I agree, it is very frustrating. I will say that the reason they have not found a cause and/or cure for Alzheimer's is that it is a polygenic and polyenvironmental disease. The only way to cure Alzheimer's is to look at each person individually (personalized medicine) but that is expensive and not as profitable.
EasyMark
Do you have know of any individualized Alzheimers treatments resulted in the cure, slowing down, or "stopped further damage"? That would seem like big news, even if it was only in a person or two.
h0l0cube
So then "curing Alzheimer's" is akin to "curing cancer". If this is true, I wish this truth was better disseminated.
Is the theory now that Alzheimer's just actual brain rot, of which their are multiple causes, and that beta amyloid plaques are just detritus of a losing battle?
jononor
We have built a rather large toolset for detecting and treating a range of cancer variants over the last decades. With meaningful changes in expected outcomes. Considerable drop in mortality, for example. Far from cured though. Alzheimer's might be much trickier. ..
chneu
Some researchers think Alzheimer's is a man made disease.
The last time I read up on this it was basically that we all have some predetermined risk of developing an Alzheimer's type disease, but that modern environmental variables raise that risk to such a high likelihood that it's become something it never used to be.
Interesting to think about.
tim333
I wouldn't say the question should be "to what extent do viruses cause Alzheimer's". I mean you could run a regression analysis to find that and then what?
The real question is what is going on and how do we fix it?
tim333
Along similar lines there was a good article in the Guardian: The brain microbiome: could understanding it help prevent dementia? https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/dec/01/the-bra...
Apparently viruses and also bacteria and fungi getting in the brain and causing problems are quite common.
paul_h
"Alzheimers-like" is a thing too: https://www.research.uky.edu/news/uk-researchers-find-alzhei... (after covid). I am sure there were other studies, but I'm darned if I can find them after searching just now.
torcete
Wouldn't this theory be easy to prove by sequencing brain tissue samples from deceased patients?
Probably more than 90% of the reads would be human, but still.
elif
Do we really need questions as headlines?
It's bad enough that people fail to contextualize or deeply consider the reality behind sensational headlines, but when you open the door to vague questions as headlines, you are somehow journalistically allowed to memetically plant a known lie into the zeitgeist of the majority of internet users who read the headline but dont click to read the article.
Mordisquitos
I would agree if the article was an example of Betteridge's law of headlines [0], but in this case it is legitimately reflecting the overall message of the article, which is that it is becoming an open research question in science whether viruses trigger Alzheimer's having previously been a fringe hypothesis.
The very fact that the last sentence of the article is expressed as a conditional is also consistent with the use of a question for the headline:
> 'If antiviral treatments can indeed slow, delay or prevent even a small subset of these cases, the impact could be tremendous.'
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge's_law_of_headlines
tim333
We don't need them but I don't see a problem either if they are appropriate to the article as in this case.
nraynaud
It's really surprising that with all the statistical tools we have, the signal for the link between a common virus and a disease is unclear. Even if the road to a proven intervention is long, you'd think at least the link would be clear.
bkfunk
Once I started learning more about biology, I realized that everything is just so complex. The body repurposes chemicals a lot, so you have things like serotonin being a key neurotransmitter in the brain, but also in the gut. And you have enzymes that are coded in genes, but then there are also networks of genes that are up- or down- regulated by hundreds of other genes, and sometimes only in certain types of cells or certain physiological environments. And then of course there are epigenetic and immune-modulated effects at the genome, gene network, and individual gene levels. Not to even mention all the feedback mechanisms and meta-feedback mechanisms (the drive toward homeostasis is POWERFUL), and effects of countless chemicals in our environment.
There are certainly clear-cut cause-effect relationships in biological systems, but even they will have edge cases and random chance to muddle the picture.
I would posit that the human body is far more complex than even the largest codebase, not least because it was jury-rigged together with no architect or style guide.
Also, in general, the more common the exposure, the harder it is to find a link; try finding a control group of people who have never been exposed to PTFEs, or HSV, and who also aren’t like hunter gatherers.
senkora
My favorite way of describing biology comes from another HN comment:
> It’s more like a vibrating causal cloud than a chain of causality.
D-Coder
"Everything in biology is more complicated than it looks."
DNA is where we get our physical attributes (modulo environment).
No, a lot of DNA is "junk," i.e. we don't yet understand what it does.
No, a lot of functional DNA is turned on or off by the epigenome.
No, a lot of our metabolism is affected by our biome — thousand of species of bacteria that turn up or down various reactions, or produce other chemicals that we need...
mharig
[dead]
inciampati
The problem is simply observational. We don't even have reliable DNA and RNA sequencing of our own bodies. And we cannot reliably observe things in a host without knowing, to some extent, what we're looking for first. Even that space is so large, it's very hard to ascertain accurately. Biology is always suffering for lack of clear observations.
Also, adding complexity is the difficulty or even literal impossibility of observing the direct interactions of elements of the system, which operate at a quantum scale, that you would disturb and do disturb when attempting to observe.
epidemiology
It's not that we haven't thought up the statistical tools. The core theoretical tools you need are there. It's that gathering the data that you need is extremely difficult and time consuming.
If you gather EHR or medical claims record data for vaccines for example, you have to take very seriously the biases and impact of missingness inherent in the data. Is that person you have no evidence of disease for truly not diseased or do they just have missing data? IS it missing because they just didnt go to the doctor because they're healthy enough to kick the disease on their own or because they're so financially unstable that they can't afford to consistently see their primary care doctor. Is the data missingness itself actually what's more correlated with the disease than the vacciation you are looking at?
Example: If your outcome is dementia then may be using cognitive tests that have a high level of variability due more to social class, education, test taking ability. Is receiving a fancy vaccine is more likely in an affluent area? Could be that correlation itself might completely explain away the positive effect that vaccine has on cognitive test scores.
In Alzheimer's you're often trying to correlate things that happen in early life with long term damage that only surfaces many many years later. Retrospective studies where you go back and ask sick or healthy people have recall bias where the sick ones remember more issues with themselves early on than healthy ones do even with the same early life issues.
Not trying to say epi is perfect or that there isn't room for improvement in tools (there absolutely is). But just like often happens when crossing over into the biological sciences there's a lot stickier problems than people outside the field realize.
nradov
Right, the data quality is usually crap. Beyond the issues you mentioned, patients often switch providers or health plans and their data doesn't get migrated. In the USA at least there is no centralized national repository for that data so the further back you try to go the more likely the data will just be missing (or incorrectly coded). In theory there are interoperability APIs and national networks to solve this problem but in practice a lot of systems still aren't properly connected.
For vaccinations specifically the CDC Immunization Gateway can be a good place to start. Most states also maintain their own immunization registries that can be queried through standard HL7 V2 Messaging and/or FHIR APIs if you have the appropriate permissions.
bognition
The issue is that we don’t have the primary data. This stuff is messy and the systems at play are extremely complicated. Often one of the most challenging parts of bio sciences is figuring out a test that will cleanly show a result that is true.
Without directly testing for a connection it’s extremely rare to get unexpected data that confirms an alternate hypothesis.
Even if the statistical tools are there, they can’t make up numbers that we haven’t collected yet.
readthenotes1
With Alzheimer's, it's possible that it's fraud hiding the linkage.
E.g., https://www.science.org/content/article/potential-fabricatio...
https://www.science.org/content/article/research-misconduct-...
https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/07/alzheimers-scientist...
https://stanforddaily.com/2023/02/17/internal-review-found-f...
lttlrck
> Authors sometimes share those with researchers conducting similar work, although they usually ignore such requests, according to recent studies of datasharing practices.
If the research was in anyway paid for with federal dollars all this data should be public. Not only that, if true it is a waste of federal dollars.
It's probable that the widening mistrust in science is due to this a sort of behavior and the resulting administration.
Waste due to inefficiencies is one thing, waste due to fraud, data hiding, misdirection is something else.
tim333
I think the link has shown up in the statistics for a long time. The article mentions Ruth Itzhaki being on it for 40 years. But things seem delayed by something along the lines of politics/corruption, or by the complexity of the situation with HSV1 not being the only cause. It can become a mess https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/opinion/alzheimers-fraud-...
I'm hoping that AI helps sort this stuff out. It can read the papers and say hypothesis A is most likely even if professor Y had built an empire on it being hypothesis B.
giantg2
HSV1 is estimated to affect more than 80% of the population, but less than 80% have dementia. This seems to imply there are other factors at play. Maybe it requires other factors like genetics or immune issues for it to progress.
amanaplanacanal
I can't point to a citation but I'm sure I've seen it hypothesized that it requires both the infection, then some sort of injury to allow the virus to cross the blood brain barrier.
crazygringo
The article clearly explains that the link isn't clear at all.
It's that certain damaging proteins are a line of defense against the HSV1 virus, that something sometimes sends those proteins into overdrive, that this is influenced by genetics broadly, further influenced by a particular gene, and that it's a second infection with shingles that can reactivate the proteins, worsening it.
Given that this is the interplay of something like at least 5 factors, and there may be more, it's not surprising it's taken this long to put together, even with all our statistical tools.
giantg2
The part that might not be clear could be due to other factors, such as a genetic or lifestyle component that cause this to only progress to disease in some individuals.
https://archive.ph/bxpk0