Tesla Sales Fall Off a Cliff Globally, Including Germany, Australia, and China
230 comments
·March 9, 2025mdorazio
comfysocks
Model 2 might seem like the sensible move, but it is also a capitulation to the idea that Tesla is just a “car company” and has to compete on price and is destined for the inevitable race to the bottom with the likes of byd in an increasingly commoditized market.
Cybercab is doubling down on the speculative fiction future that fuels stock valuations that are out of line with the rest of the industry.
plusmax1
You are right. However, I think I agree with the vision, too bad its Musk+Tesla. I do think in the end we won't each own a car.
It's so incredibly inefficient to have individually owned cars just rotting away on the side of the road and in car parks waiting for their owner.
It would be so much better for everyone if no one, except enthusiasts, would own a car. And you could just grab an "auto taxi" wherever you are within a few minutes instead. Perhaps someday...
puppable
I think Musk should be more bold in his vision here. What if instead of a cybercab that seats just two people, we could come up with an even bigger one that seats many people at once? And then maybe we could have it drive on a predictable, efficient route that covers multiple popular destinations, instead of just going from point A to point B. Has anyone considered building something like this?
coryrc
Anecdote: my wife wanted to trade up from a 3 to a Y. We won't so long as Elon is involved.
I also have an "Occupy Mars" shirt. It was one thing to bandwagon onto some topical events by a CEO who was touting Tesla's 100/100 lgbt friendliness rating and progressing toward human exploration, then one seig heiling and throwing the whole government into disarray and betraying our allies.
jordanb
Personally the "Occupy Mars" thing rubbed me the wrong way when it came out. The message seemed to be "don't worry about inequality or the rise of the oligarchy because it'll get humans to Mars."
I hope we can now all see that
1) it won't get us to mars but
2) it will bring us a total-recall like dystopia.
hedora
Also, Cybertruck has three competitors in the US. The F-150 is definitely better for truck stuff, and the R1T definitely wins for camping/off-roading/recreation. Unlike the Cybertruck, the bed-mounted MAGA flag is optional on those two.
maxnevermind
> Cybercab
Why do they always try to make a taxi out of it? I mean Waymo, now Cybercab. I would gladly pay a high premium for such a car to be able to work on my laptop on the way from my home to the office while in a car. I don't mind the whole taxi concept for some cases but just not sure about focusing or taking a meeting call from a taxi with strangers.
hatmike05
Why sell you a product once when they can milk you forever with a service?
whizzter
Neither the competition or the antics are the cause.
The combination however has been highly toxic for Tesla, like Apple it had an initial lead and a high trust factor due to size, experience and perceived tech lead. This also allowed them to charge a premium compared to the other makers.
Elon single-handedly eroded most of the trust factor and now that people are looking at alternatives (and being happy), they'll notice that there isn't much of a reason to be paying the premium in 2025 (not like 5-10 years ago).
The biggest question now is if they can ever recapture the position they held even with Elon gone or if they're yet another BEV automaker, trust as the saying goes is hard to gain and easy to squander (And even if Elon is gone, some of the previous halo goes with him but the antipathy cannot be gotten over with him in the reins, catch-22).
mcv
I think it's pretty obvious that the antics are a bit part of it. It's a big part in how Musk is eroding the trust in Tesla, but more than that, a car is also an image, a feeling. A few years ago, Tesla was widely loved ajd many people hoped to buy one some day, including me. Now lots of people wouldn't want to be caught dead in one.
And the real big factor are his support for Trump and his weird and destructive antics these past few months. There was competition a year ago, buy it's only now that sales are really falling off a cliff.
I honestly don't think Tesla wil exist in a couple of years. Musk will have made the brand too toxic.
ryandrake
It's honestly mind-blowing watching people desperately reach for anything, anything to explain the brand's sudden fall, out of nowhere. Even calling Elon's actions "antics" serves to downplay it. This isn't "antics" and it wasn't an "odd gesture" or whatever euphemism his supporters keep trying to use to downplay what happened. The CEO did a Nazi salute on stage. It's on video, and it's very, very obvious.
But no, it's not that. Surely anything but that! It's definitely a vague, complex web of market dynamics that's the real cause of the brand's downfall.
averageRoyalty
It's also worth noting the S and X haven't been available in Australia for years (and I assume some other countries), which is probably a limiting factor too.
lotsofpulp
3 and Y compose 95% of Tesla’s sales. Not offering S and X does not move the needle.
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-fourth-quarter-2024...
averageRoyalty
Makes sense, just adding the data point though. They weren't a common car here before that either.
forrestthewoods
Not sure why you’re getting downvoted. You’re completely correct.
threeseed
But that doesn't explain the massive drop in sales.
It really is a combination of better and cheaper Chinese EVs, Trump negatively impacting Australia e.g. tariffs, undermining security and Musk's antics e.g. Nazi salute etc.
Animats
Yes.
Electric cars are getting simpler. Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries are safer. BYD has an "E-axle" kit, where motor, axle, and differential are a single unit. That goes with a power electronics box and battery.[1] Talks CANbus to the controls. Plug everything together and put a body on top, and you have a car. Or a truck.
EVs from all manufacturers are getting much cheaper. Margins are decreasing. This is a big problem for Tesla, with their grossly inflated stock price. Musk liked to say that Tesla investors are not investing in a car company, they are betting on Tesla's technology. What technology? Tesla is way behind Waymo in self-driving. There are at least four other humanoid robots as good as Tesla's, none profitable. Tesla is nowhere in solid-state batteries.
Rivian is outselling all other US makers in electric pickup trucks. Rivian's truck is not weird, like the Cybertruck, and it seems to be a decent pickup truck, although overpriced. I see them being driven around, often being used to do truck things, not just car things.
Even in the US, with protectionism keeping BYD out, Tesla isn't doing that well any more.
[1] https://insideevs.com/news/738606/byd-ev-teardown-impresses-...
csa
> But that doesn't explain the massive drop in sales.
New model y releasing in May.
This may not explain all of the drop off, but I’m certain this refreshed model explains some of it.
sizzle
What electric alternatives do you recommend with decent self driving tech for stop and go work commute?
scarab92
It’s telling that Tesla’s largest market share loses are occurring in foreign markets where BYD is allowed to compete.
If the falls were actually caused by Musks antics you would expect the inverse, with a larger effect in the US and attenuated effects in countries less invested in US politics.
magic_man
Pissing off your primary customer base probably isn't smart. I don't see MAGA buying electric cars. In foreign markets BYD is a better value.
He did become the world's richest man and he bought himself and election so I wouldn't under estimate him.
aprilthird2021
I personally think he and Tesla can weather this current decline in sales and make it to a world where most people have an electric car. At that point, most MAGA types around the world might just choose a Tesla over cheaper better alternatives for the status, same way many American men buy pavement princess pickup trucks over cheaper, higher utility alternatives.
I don't like him. But I could see this happening
whizzter
IF the Maga types would be buying electric cars it'd probably be a Dodge with horns or something alike. Sleek/futuristic was never their thing to begin with.
null
readthenotes1
"I don't see MAGA buying electric cars"
The most vehement Trump supporters I know have been Musk fans since the time he supported Babylon Bee when they were kicked off Twitter.
They believe that the Climate Change stuff is all a big con to get government money, of course.
And those MAGA now have Tesla's and Starlink because.
iamtheworstdev
> And those MAGA now have Tesla's and Starlink because.
no they don't. and the sales numbers prove it.
bloomingkales
I guess he really thought that his initial userbase was now too small, and the larger more sustainable base is what he thought would be enough. He could still be right (no pun intended), but he would need all of the MAGA people to buy his cars, and China. It's not the worst bet, but more importantly, it very much exposes the lack of conviction in values.
The vast majority of people are good, and we're finally seeing that spirit moving (about time!).
basisword
Can’t see the trade war helping him much in China. And MAGA is a pretty small market compared with…the rest of the world.
null
outer_web
He could be banking on people having short memories.
kivle
That would require him to not be in the media long enough for people to forget. He loves the attention he's getting, so don't expect that to happen any time soon.
daveguy
Yeah, he's kinda fkd. Trumpty isn't even letting him fire people over the cabinet heads. Oops, fascism.
daxfohl
He's all bitcoin now, his companies don't matter. Now he can push for more inflation, bitcoin will be the only hedge against it, boom, trillionaire.
Leaving the rest of us with no jobs, stagflation, no government.
estebank
> Now he can push for more inflation, bitcoin will be the only hedge against it, boom, trillionaire.
That's assuming that Bitcoin gains value disconnected from the US dollar/economy. That's not a given.
daxfohl
If it doesn't, the trillionaire class can eliminate the fed and require all taxes to be paid in bitcoin.
ericjmorey
Unless the cryptocurrency people realize that there's nothing special about any one of the implementations and get bored of the lottery ticket game of initial coin offerings.
null
vessenes
BYD is nailing them in china, and look likely to continue to do so.
nikcub
They're nailing them in Australia, too. They'll surpass Tesla in EV sales likely this year.
This would have been unthinkable a few years ago.
The Chinese EV's and hybrids are brilliant - the US market doesn't know what it's missing out on.
chgs
The coal rollers are hardly going to go full electric no matter what musk says
gruez
Republicans went from being the party against marriages and protection for gay people (in the early 2000s), to claiming "Trump is the most pro-gay president". Going from "roll coal to own the libs" to not caring would be a small change in comparison.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/08/24/absurb-cl...
ericjmorey
The pro-gay claim is not sincere. See Jean-Paul Sartre for more explanation.
permo-w
I'm not saying you're wrong, but anyone claiming that Trump is the greatest anything of all time is little more than brown-nosing. if you can point to serious policy change, that would support your argument more strongly
archagon
I think it was a lie to catch liberal strays: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/republican-lawmakers-increas...
They've started with the T, but they'll get to the other letters eventually.
light_hue_1
Red counties have 30% of the GDP in the US. Blue counties have 70%. Doesn't seem like a good strategy to pivot from one to the other! Also, MAGA people don't believe in the environment and don't want to pay extra to save it. That was the big leverage that Tesla had originally.
He could have kept out of politics and tried to capture both markets. Little fast cars for blue people, big ugly cars for red people. That's now totally impossible. It's one or the other.
ericjmorey
Now it's neither for Tesla it seems.
FirmwareBurner
>Red counties have 30% of the GDP in the US. Blue counties have 70%
Now let's look at the number of voters
AlotOfReading
Looks like the numbers are from the 2020 election (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/biden-voting-counties-equ...).
Red counties tend to have smaller populations, but there are more of them. Those factors balance out to each of the groups having roughly 50% of the total voting population (contributing to close elections). If we assume the proportion of non-voters is the same in both groups, then the blue counties are over twice as economically productive per capita, which shouldn't be surprising given that the red counties tend to be rural and agrarian.
I'm not sure the turnout assumption holds, but I'm also not sure which way has lower voter turnout. This 2016 map of voter turnout by county (https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/maps/motm_10_18_18_L...) suggests urban areas (e.g. bay area, NoVA, new england) have higher voter turnouts than rural areas, so the per capita numbers may be even more sharply skewed towards blue counties.
klipt
He can just make money insider trading on Trump's policies before they're announced.
Short some industry just before tariffs are introduced that will hurt them.
ericjmorey
And cancelling competitors' government contracts and replacing the contracts with his own companies'.
lavezzi
> he would need all of the MAGA people to buy his cars, and China.
Everyone in those groups would be behind a guy throwing Nazi salutes?
toomuchtodo
There are conservatives with money, and those without. The latter is louder and more visible. Importantly, one should always, as a business, be optimizing for those with dollars vs opinions. Opinions do not contribute to revenue.
bloomingkales
It's a moral failure. Even in business. You know the electric car people are bleeding heart liberals. Is it okay to mislead them with false advertising? They really did look at him as a role model. So, immorality is bad business. But how can that be shown to you? I suppose a few more of these articles until this thing goes bankrupt over time. That would truly be god.
Edit: I just want to add a little grace here (got my Sunday suit on). I think Elon is probably the most interesting person you can ever hang out with most likely. He's definitely in a dark mindset atm, and I pray he gets out of it because it's not leading to a better world (and I know he once cared for this).
toomuchtodo
I bought my Teslas to contribute to electrification of transportation, climate change and whatnot. Also invested early on after test driving the original Roadster, I believed it was the future. We win or we learn. I learned. There are no heroes, only people. Onward.
wat10000
Elon probably was interesting to hang out with, but right now I imagine he’s absolutely insufferable to be around. If I want to be inundated with bullshit right-wing talking points, I can just leave Fox News playing on my TV.
ericjmorey
[flagged]
danans
> There are conservatives with money, and those without. The latter is louder and more visible. Importantly, one should always, as a business, be optimizing for those with dollars vs opinions
The problem is the addressable market size. They traded the larger one (liberals with money and pro-EV opinions) for a much much smaller one (conservatives with money and pro-EV opinions).
The issue is that among conservatives with money, the primary opinion in their culture is anti-EV, so unless there is a pro-EV tipping soon point on that side, it's not likely that market will grow, or that it would even go to them vs more traditional auto-makers.
qwerpy
Pro-EV Tesla-owning conservative here. There aren't many of us, and for those of us in a blue city (e.g. Seattle) we now also have to contend with Kristallnacht-like environments for Tesla owners. Politically apathetic Asians are probably buying most of the Teslas here, but as the hostility and vandalism ramps up, they'll do the pragmatic thing and trade in for a brand that doesn't attract such unhinged behavior.
azakai
It's even worse than that, many conservatives live in rural areas where EV chargers are less common.
This really is a case of trading a good addressable market for a much smaller one. Business-wise it makes no sense at all.
sekai
> There are conservatives with money, and those without
The main issue with conservatives is that they just don't like EVs and are much more skeptical about climate change.
hatmike05
Tesla is a battery company propped up on tax credits. The cars never came close to profitability. Now that the tax credits are gone/going and there are competitors for the battery space, there is no reasonable path forward, which is why we're seeing a taxi that'll never happen, a truck that isn't very good at truck, and a mechanical Turk serving drinks.
Animats
Who's running Tesla? Top management below Musk is just Tom Zhu, who went back to China, and a chief financial officer.[1] Drew Baglino, the powertrain guy, quit last year.
[1] https://electrek.co/2024/05/06/elon-musk-no-2-tesla-goes-bac...
kioleanu
In Germany, it sure didn’t help that the 2024 TüV report says that 14% of Tesla Model 3s fail their first inspection, which is done when the car is 2/3 years old (VW is at 3,5 - 7%).
My last car, a Ford Focus, passed the inspections on the first try for 13 years in a row
maxnevermind
I wonder what will the failure rate for BYD. I wish automakers would started to deliver on a promise EV being more reliable.
austinallegro
I'd rather drive an Austin Allegro or a Rover than a piece of Tesla junk on wheels.
Tesla tried to copy British Leyland "that'll do" coachbuilding and failed miserably!
Freedom2
I'd love to drive a Rover V8 in my lifetime.
tomashm
I’ve on my 4th Tesla so far. There will not be a 5th one. I will not let my money go to Musk.
scarab92
The net margin on a Tesla is only a few percent, and of that Musk only receives 12% (only owns 12% of Tesla stock).
A guy who is worth hundreds of billions, and is willing to give Wikimedia a billion dollars to change their name to dickipedia, doesn’t care whether he makes an extra hundred from you or not.
Just buy the car you like.
bdangubic
there is literally nothing he cares about except for money (including his own myriad of children he probably can’t even name)
scarab92
I think that was true at some point in his life, but these days he regularly and deliberately torches billions of dollars just to make a point on principle.
Which car you buy makes a significant difference to your life, but virtually zero difference to shareholders of the automaker, so buy whatever car you want instead of spiting yourself.
mesk
Well, when I see the disaster of the 'We are going to run this country like a bussiness', one has to think, what kind of disasters should one await from the bussiness that he is running like bussiness...cyber..cough..track..cough...
It seems to me like when a young IT engineer comes on project running for 100 years, and starts to rewrite the core service in nodejs, because it will cost less to run it, or whatever - and you end up with half working production, because someone didint't understood, why the system is and was built how it was built, and what are the implications of changing it... It might work on greenfield project, but anything else will probably not survive such a 'expert' in charge.
smallerize
Do you think the board will push Elon out, or will the company just collapse when it can't raise cash?
I kinda want to buy a used Tesla now while they're cheap and stash it in the garage until this blows over. But I need it to keep getting software support.
vessenes
Tesla's 2024 Free Cash Flow was roughly $3.5 billion. Other than BYD, they're still the only company I'm aware of that can profitably sell an EV. So, raising cash might not be a near-term pressure point.
The board's historically comped Elon on revenues, net income and stock price -- all those aren't that great compared with highs in the last five years. They are, however, astronomical compared to where Tesla was when they gave him his 'crazy' incentive stock plan. I imagine the board is probably repeatedly asking him to settle down, lower the drug intake and ... please don't make things worse bro. Maybe in stronger language than that. And, I'm sure if they think Tesla would be better off without Elon they'll work hard to make that happen. Right now, though is sort of peak anti-Elon sentiment in the public, making it harder to parse out what's helpful / where he's impacting his companies on the non-public side.
YokoZar
Without a strong theory for why anti-Elon sentiment can't get worse, it's quite plausible we haven't actually hit the "peak" of it.
Personally I think it quite likely that Musk will catch significant blame for whatever bad things related to American government happen in the coming year, deserved or otherwise.
miohtama
Also a clash with Trump or other MAGA figureheads is likely and Musk will be kicked out from the MAGA team.
akmarinov
The board is die hard Elon loyalists, for example - his brother.
The board’s not doing anything
DougN7
I’m going to guess they won’t work if they turn the Tesla servers off. Just a guess - I have no inside info.
toomuchtodo
They will, I’ve tested it by turning my cellular connectivity on the vehicle off (I have root on my vehicles as a registered security researcher).
You lose maps, supercharger status, etc but the car still works fine.
oriel
That's always been the catch for me; its an always-on remotely controlled camera-mobile, of which you happen to sit in the drivers seat and pretend you own while it drives you around dangerously.
averageRoyalty
Aside from the gimmicky "summon mode", what remote control are you talking about?
oriel
Simply being always-online and sending telemetry, doesnt preclude the ability to remotely intercede in the car's operations.
I think there's precedent with the OnStar system in other cars, and there has anecdotally been evidence of various systems being operable by some kind of admin terminal.
I think "summon mode" is actually a great demonstration of how you can remotely access and do some form of piloting the car without a driver. There's also the disabling of features remotely on resale, and probably other examples.
tobias3
They probably do it properly now, but there were stories in the past that they were able to ssh into the cars: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17835760 https://www.reddit.com/r/EnoughMuskSpam/comments/99sbwa/form...
Even then you can always install an update that allows remote control.
prepend
Are they cheap though? I’ve been searching on AT and Craigslist and prices don’t seem to have dropped yet.
ericjmorey
Maybe Russian and Middle Eastern money bails him out again.
bryanlarsen
Tesla has $36B in cash. They don't need to raise.
thrill
Not too many years ago I watched Ford burn $36 billion in cash in a year.
alabastervlog
Dude sieg-heiled twice on stage. He needs to have no connection, including stock, and they need a rebrand, before I’d consider them. The T logo is a swastika now, and I would’ve drive around with one of those on my car.
josteink
[flagged]
jazzyjackson
The sieg hiel meme probably wouldn't have caught as much traction if he wasn't appearing at AfD rallies like the face of Big Brother
scns
His grandfather emigrated from Canada to South Africa after the fascist party he was a member of got banned.
ryandrake
Wow, I didn't have this on my bingo card for today, but this has got to be the most full-throated, impassioned defense and downplaying of an obvious Nazi salute I've ever read in my life.
I tell ya what. Instead of trying to convince you of what you're wishing to be not true, try this: Pull up the video of the gesture he made, practice it at home, make sure you can duplicate it perfectly, and then go into work and do it in front of each person you meet, and come back here and tell us what happens.
ailun
Nah. Not misinformation. Just other people aren't willing to give him the massive benefit of the doubt that you are. There's no point arguing with you about it, of course. But in context, watching the full video, seeing his opinions expressed on Twitter... surely you can see how people can come to the conclusion that they have.
For you to act like it's 100% definitely misinformation rather than a judgement call is disingenuous to the extreme.
alabastervlog
Dude it’s on video. We can just watch it. This wasn’t an innocent gesture caught in an awkward still, it’s on video. I get that it’s also on video that he looked high as a kite at the event, but most people manage not to nazi salute when high, too.
null
wat10000
Don’t be so damned gullible. These shitheads thrive on doing reprehensible stuff, and then giving it a stupid cover story so people like you go out and defend them for free.
It was a “haha only serious” Nazi salute. It’s not “unhinged” to see what’s plainly visible.
arj
Good riddance
sleepyguy
The real story here is Australia and China. According to some auto blogs, BYD is destroying them in both markets.
Rodeoclash
Anecdotal but I just purchased an Atto3 in Melbourne. Tesla wasn't even considered after Musk's behaviour and the value for money that the BYD provides.
The reason I brought the Atto3 was after talking to 4 or 5 Uber drivers with them who swore by them.
boredatoms
Australia not having local car manufacturers really makes it easier for BYD, not having to worry about protectionist tariffs like in the US
fsckboy
yes, they taught us in school that Denmark, which makes no cars, had significantly cheaper cars than... oooh wait a minute, they got sucked into the EU which does make cars... is it still true? how is this handled by EC policy?
tossandthrow
Are you proposing that Denmark is a part of the EU because it does not produce its own cars?
Cars are incredibly expensive in Denmark (Not quite Singapore levels, but high). This, however, is more grounded in a cultural difference where walkable cities are preferred.
The US is incredibly car centric - to an extend where US trips can be directly read in my stress levels as measured on my watch. The US is so incredibly noisy and smelly.
Symbiote
Denmark has companies making parts for car companies elsewhere in Europe.
I don't know the relative size of this industry compared to anywhere else.
averageRoyalty
Is it? They're doing well in AU, but still well behind Tesla[1].
1. https://evcentral.com.au/2024-australian-ev-sales-tesla-and-...
mvdtnz
Anecdotally in New Zealand I have several neighbours with new BYDs. In my same neighbourhood there are two Teslas (Model 3) and both were purchased over 5 years ago. No one in their right mind is buying a Tesla in this market, and not because Elon is a twat (although he very much is). BYD is just better value.
averageRoyalty
The base model 3 and seal are about $10k difference in AU (not a huge difference in that price range) and the BYD is slower with less range.
Personally every time I've rented a BYD (only the Atto admittedly) I've found the UI to be awful. The two Android screens are often out of sync on key information, and the interior looks like it was designed by Homer Simpson making a "future car".
Elon’s antics certainly haven’t helped things, but the real story is legitimate alternatives finally entering the market from multiple OEMs (especially BYD) and Tesla’s absolute face plant on model development.
A large portion of Tesla’s sales were driven by a lack of decent alternatives if you wanted a BEV. Today that’s no longer the case, especially in Europe and China.
And instead of pushing for a new small Model 2 with global appeal, they launched Cybertruck and Cybercab. Meanwhile Model S and X are just plain old. This is becoming a case study in 1) squandering a market lead, and 2) the danger of making devil’s bargains with China.