After ruining a treasured water resource, Iran is drying up

You forgot to mention what may be the most serious water problem in Brazil. Agribusiness invests heavily in the Cerrado, the Brazilian savanna. In the Cerrado originate the vast majority of Brazilian rivers, which supply water to almost all of Brazil. Its trees, with deep roots, retain the scarce water of the region. This entire region has been deforested for the production of soybeans and cattle ranching. Brazil is a great exporter of water, which it currently does in the form of meat, soybeans, coffee, and paper.

Today we are experiencing unprecedented droughts in the region. In the future, we will pay a much higher price.

Wow. That’s a hydrological feature I’ve never come across in my studies. Thanks for sharing.

Short tangent: I want to stop and admire that you shared an article in Portuguese and in seconds I could read it with Safari’s translation feature. It even translated labels on the images, and got the hydrologic cycle figure right! (However, I think “Rio de 28 Old Women” is probably an error.) This makes me feel connected with you in a way that wouldn’t have been possible a generation ago.

So that's the kind of hill Jack and Jill went up.

this same problem is one of the side effects of mining for the metals used in things like solar panels

it comes at the sacrifice of many non-western countries and this conversation is never on the table

it's such a shame things that could otherwise last for thousands of years will get destroyed by a few decades of mismanagement

And the reason qanats weren't sufficient anymore, was that they pursued a policy of food independence, due to sanctions/a desire for political autonomy.

I'm not so sure they could have done much different.

The article interviewed some actual hydrologists from Iran. I’m pretty sure they are aware of population growth in their homeland.

The article does say that a number of qanats was overdrawn.

But it also says several other things, pointing to poor water management policies, extreme damification drying up wetlands downstream, lack of necessary maintenance on some qanats, and more.

Clicking through the link to the original paper, the point seems to be that qanats are inherently sustainable because they only produce as much as goes in. You may gradually exceed their capacity, but there won’t be a sudden “oops, no more water” crisis as can happen when you pump an aquifer dry.

This is often the case.

Consider too the selection bias in those you've met from Iran, presumably outside that country. Both on ideological and socioeconomic / aptitude bases.

I'd first encountered a similar observation in the 1970s or 1980s, then directed largely at those from Soviet Bloc countries encountered in the West. Typically these were academics, engineers, or similarly highly-skilled professionals, who presumably found greener pastures outside their homeland. Presuming that these were necessarily representative of the larger population ignores sampling dynamics.

Greed is emotion-based. Intelligence isn't necessarily the best counter against emotion.

Iran used to be a very prosperous country only a century ago, and then it democratically elected a totalitarian theocratic party.

Don't think that it can't happen here too.

This can apply to almost every country on earth.

These predictions assume that nobody will do anything, which is almost never true. The crisis is no less real just because a lot of resources was put into delaying its effects.

Back then they said Tehran will go out of water if there is no rain in coming weeks and it is raining in Tehran, now. Also they rationed water for a few weeks. Many regions of Tehran only had water during the night.

Perhaps this bit from the article is more concrete: "Tehran's five reservoirs plunged to 12 percent of capacity last month"

I read a similar prediction about Cape Town not long ago. It hasn't happened there despite the serious threat.

Right now, water is not available all day.

Elasticity of supply

Ever heard of clickbait?

It is unlikely Tehran will just evacuate all at once. They will do something drastic when the problem can no longer be ignored. And random events like rain will delay the inevitable for a while longer.

Perhaps this is how climate change will end up as well.

For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.

- H. L. Mencken

What simple solution are you referring to? Depopulating Tehran?

Not sure if a quote by a pseudo-scientist new-age gardener is really adapted.

They share the same gas field with Qatar, who does all their desalination with all the excess gas production they can’t sell.

Qatar has no surface freshwater or groundwater. So all of their water is desalinated. It’s often still quite salty to the taste though - the last few ppms would be an exorbitant cost to remove.

However, Qatar has 3 million people. Iran has 92 million people - 9 million in Tehran alone. So their half of that gas field in the Gulf contributes far less energy per capita.

And even if the energy is free (unlimited natural gas, fusion, magic, whatever) desalination is still fairly expensive. I think only about 50% of the cost is energy, the other half is CapEx, operations, and replacing the membranes as they get used up.

I suggest you read the article it talks about the viability of that very point

No it has not and due to sanctions of USA, they struggle getting the equipement they need.

I used to think people didn't actually believe the propaganda they were fed, but now I've come to realize it's the only thing many know about the world.