What If Tariffs?
79 comments
·October 26, 2025intermerda
mrep
Depending on the circumstance, the burden of tax can fall more on consumers or on producers based on the elasticity of supply and demand.
Microeconomics 101: https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/microec...
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croisillon
it's thanks to the lying that he was elected in the first place, and no one around him dares to contradict him, what would be the incentives to stop?
Swoerd
[dead]
charcircuit
>It flies in the face of any common sense.
The consumer paying the tariff is merely an optimization over the exporter paying the tariff such that the tariff money passes through one less hand. Practically they seem pretty similar.
exe34
The exporter gets paid the same as before. The buyer pays more. There's a subtle difference, can you spot it?
Borealid
Let's imagine, hypothetically speaking, that demand is perfectly inelastic. The price of a good is $10, and buyers will absolutely refuse to pay more than $10 under any circumstances.
Before a tariff is imposed, the seller sells the good for $10 and keeps $10 in revenue.
If a tariff of $1 is imposed under these hypothetical circumstances, does the buyer pay more? Does the exporter get paid the same as before?
Clearly, it's neither guaranteed that the buyer will "pay more" nor that the export will "get paid the same as before". In reality because demand is neither 100% elastic nor 100% inelastic, what tends to happen is that the cost of the tariff is split in some ratio between the buyer and seller.
I find it mildly amusing that there are so many people claiming that it's 100% on one side or other, when it's trivially easy to see why that can't be GUARANTEED TO BE the case.
jakewins
This isn’t actually how it works though. Who pays the tariff is the same as who pays a tax: it depends on the price elasticity of supply and demand.
If the demand curve is very price sensitive - like people might stop buying wool blankets if the price went up 50%, and buy cotton blankets instead - then the tariff will be paid by the suppliers, because they must lower their prices to make the final price the same.
And similarly, if the buyers are inelastic, they will pay the tariff. Like for baby formula, maybe parents are willing to stomach significant price hikes without changing how much they buy.
xyzzy123
Without knowing what the product and market structure is, you cannot tell if the cost of the tariff will be borne by the seller or the buyer.
nicois
This would be more impactful if we could see the cost to US purchasers was actually 39% more. Sadly some manufacturers spread the cost across all consumers, which actually means non-US customers are actually paying some of the tariff costs too.
onion2k
I imagine some manufacturers used tariffs as a reason to lower the price of their products that imported into the US while also raising the price outside of the US to balance that change, but that doesn't mean the manufacturer or their customers outside of the USA are paying anything towards tariffs. The entire tariff transaction is between the customer and the US government, and it's all transacted within the USA.
Tariffs are a tax, paid on the value of imported good, by US citizens who are buying things from outside of the USA. That's it. They are not paid by anyone outside of the US.
d1sxeyes
Let’s say I’m a widget seller in the US, and my widgets cost $100 to import from Switzerland before tariffs. I retail them at $150 USD in the US, but I sell internationally. In the UK for example, I retail them at £113 (simple conversion, obviously it doesn’t really work like this).
Now tariffs are imposed, my import cost per widget is $139. Not only do I have to jack up my US price to $189, I have to jack up my UK price to £142, meaning UK customers are also paying the tariff now.
Even if you’re a bit smarter about your logistics and use an FTZ or drawback against the import duties, imagine you sell two widgets, one where you don’t pay import duties (bound for the UK) and one where you do (remaining in the US). Your total cost to import is $239.
Instead of making your US customers eat all the cost of the tariff, you might instead adjust your retail prices to $170 and £128 respectively. Again, now your British customers are paying an increased price due to the tariffs.
exe34
The manufacturer are subsidising the tariffs if they lower their price in the us to counteract part of the tariff. When they charge other markets more to make up for the cost, they are making those markets pay for the subsidy.
bigfudge
That might be a short term strategy to avoid losing market share in the states and it’s rational if you think the tariffs are temporary. For goods like iPhones which are truly global that might last. But It doesn’t look like a stable equilibrium in the long term for any food which can support multiple suppliers because manufacturers who don’t do this will be more competitive in non us markets.
watwut
Afaik it was distributors not manufacturers who sacrificed margin.
bootsmann
This was a big worry initially when the tariffs were announced but it doesn’t actually seem to be happening. Most manufacturers are not adjusting their price structure because the effects are super hard to estimate (don’t forget that the US is still just 20% of worldwide demand)
MadDemon
The tariff is applied to the import value. For many products you'll get a significant markup on top within the US for distribution, which is not affected by the tariffs.
duxup
> spread the cost across all consumers
Did they lower the US import price before the tariff is applied in the US?
isoprophlex
So... they swapped 3 and 9 numerals. Does it run counter clockwise then, as a horological commentary on our present age of backwardness?
brightbeige
That you can find around southern South America
nunorbatista
no, it's a regular quartz movement.
comrade1234
Gotta be careful making fun of trump and the tariff situation lest you get another 10% added, which will make this watch irrelevant.
nunorbatista
He would actually be working against his interest: he has been seen wearing multiple Swiss watches - Patek's, Rolex, Vacheron, etc,
rapnie
Tangential. It is fun to note how in ads showing watches the time is usually 9 past 10 as shown in the image. This apparently gives the most pleasing balance of the watch dials for the eye, while not covering the time indicators below.
hshdhdhehd
10:09:30 is probably the closest to 120 degree equal separation.
kitd
It makes the watch face look like it's smiling.
mohas
Do we still remember that Tariffs are supposed to raise the price of foreign goods and make domestic goods more reasonable for buyers? it targets buyers and this is how it works regardless of how it is presented to the public, I don't imagine lots of supporters if presented as it is.
louthy
Do the hands tick counter clockwise? I am assuming so to make 3/9 swap work, but it’s not mentioned.
dalmo3
It can't not be clockwise.
hshdhdhehd
Locally clockwise
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louthy
It ticks, therefore it is
kitd
Whoever said tariffs were bad for business? There's a whole industry springing up of people taking the piss out of the POTUS.
brightbeige
Only available in Switzerland
Here’s a link to the Swiss store which has more details, like price: https://www.swatch.com/en-ch/what-if-tariffs-so34z106/SO34Z1...
Quarrel
I like the "Hopefully, just a limited edition." line too :)
hshdhdhehd
Large order in from Venezuela
bbno4
absolutely brilliant, one of the greatest things i have ever seen. shame its only available in switzerland.
mndgs
True that
immibis
how is a watch with 3 and 9 swapped brilliant in any way at all?
jagrsw
Reminds me of the Orange Alternative movement in communist-era Poland. A group would wear t-shirts, each with a letter, spelling an innocent phrase.
When one turned away, the message would instantly become different, like changing "Down with the heat" to "Down with the cops" - https://sztukapubliczna.pl/pl/precz-z-u-palami-pomaranczowa-...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Alternative
the whole world is a work of art, so even a single policeman standing in the street is a work of art
seydor
Ironic that it can't be tariff'd
The number 39 refers to the 39% tariff rate on Switzerland.
Kind of insane that the American President just made up a lie that tariffs are paid by foreign countries and rest of the administration just went along with it. It flies in the face of any common sense.