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California invests in battery energy storage, leaving rolling blackouts behind

mh-

> California hasn’t issued an emergency plea for the public to conserve energy, known as a Flex Alert, since 2022.

Feels like that statement deserves to be contextualized with weather data. There were a few summers leading up to that where all of the major metro areas shared concurrent record high heat days, and sometimes coincided with poor air quality from wildfires (meaning more people closed their windows and ran AC even if they wouldn't have otherwise.)

> It was only five years ago that a record-shattering heat wave pushed the grid to its limit and plunged much of the state into darkness.

They mention it here, but then don't talk about whether similar circumstances have been faced since. Don't get me wrong, this is encouraging, but the article invited this kind of reaction by putting "leaving rolling blackouts behind" in the title.

Funny enough, if you look at the article's original title via the URL slug, it was much more measured:

  california-made-it-through-another-summer-without-a-flex-alert

khuey

> There were a few summers leading up to that where all of the major metro areas shared concurrent record high heat days, and sometimes coincided with poor air quality from wildfires (meaning more people closed their windows and ran AC even if they wouldn't have otherwise.)

This is underselling it, if anything. The multi-day heatwave around Labor Day 2022 extended across most of the western US, not just California. The electricity demand during that event set what was at the time the all time record for the entire Western Interconnection (since surpassed in 2024) and set what is still today the all time record for CAISO.

mh-

I didn't want to overstate it given I wasn't bringing any data to the conversation, but your account matches my recollection as well.

rconti

Yep. The previous high was in 2006(!). Overall, statewide energy consumption seems to be flat or declining.

In 2020, there were extremely high heat days in August, with wildfire smoke covering the state. Thankfully I was out of town, but my wife was suffering, unable to cool the house OR open a window. In 2021 or 2022 I finally broke down and bought a window-mounted AC unit for my office, as I work from home. In 2024 and 2025 I didn't even bother installing it, the summers have been so mild.

https://www.caiso.com/documents/californiaisopeakloadhistory...

themafia

Equipment dies and needs to be replaced. When that happens a more energy efficient unit is usually available and is often the best option for replacement.

That's the whole other side to this curve which isn't seen very clearly in grid analysis.

jeffbee

Statewide grid demand is somewhat declining because distributed small-scale solar is massive. It now has an aggregate capacity of 20GW. This is usually ignored by people who are only looking at ERCOT v. CAISO grid statistics. Texas basically doesn't have any small-scale solar.

vondur

Yeah, I think you are correct, 2022 was a hot summer with a September heat wave which broke some records for power demand. Also keep in mind that there was a big increase in hydropower generation in 2023 and 2024 due to the really wet/snowy winter seasons.

chaostheory

There’s also the more forgiving fire season in some areas. This is relevant since a lot of the power transmission goes through forests and nature preserves.

blitzar

With current technology getting through long days of sunshine linked demand is not an achievement worthy of celebration.

khuey

> sunshine linked demand

The demand lags the sunshine which is why it's a non-trivial problem.

cbmuser

The electricity mix in France is still way cleaner than in California:

- France: https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/FR/5y/yearly

- California: https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/US-CAL-CISO/5y/year...

And their kWh costs less than 20 Cents in the standard plan:

- https://particulier.edf.fr/content/dam/2-Actifs/Documents/Of...

They even offer flex prices going down as low as 12,32 Cents/kWh.

Nuclear power rules.

derriz

Electricity prices are set by the French government not the wholesale cost or cost of production. Which is why EDF - the operator of the French nuclear fleet - regularly posts massive losses. Like the €18 billion loss in 2023.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/02/17/france-s...

MaxL93

It should be noted that most of EDF's massive losses are due to the ARENH.

The European Union insists that EDF must sell energy at very discounted prices, so that third-party "providers" can make an entry on the energy market. The idea was that they would eventually sell their own energy supply, but most just pocketed the difference between the dirt-cheap energy & what they charged customers, then ran away the moment there was any hint of change on the horizon.

Or, to put it in simpler, blunter terms: in the name of "competition", EDF was forced to heavily subsidize companies that turned out to be nothing more than rent-seekers that only sought to, effectively, grab free subsidy money.

Here are some articles about it:

2022: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/10/edf-sues-fr... 2023: https://www.ft.com/content/e2fc3abf-4803-4561-8ef2-0c77fd2d0... 2024: https://www.bruegel.org/policy-brief/europes-under-radar-ind...

KptMarchewa

2022, not 2023. That was due to one time effect of corrosion repairs.

For 2023 and 2024 EDF was profitable, with net income of those two years exceeding that 2022 loss.

mikeyouse

And I’m generally a nuclear proponent but one of the worst investments the French utility made was investing in the UKs reactor debacle at Hinkley C.

sgustard

Quebec has them both beat. Hydro rules!

https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/CA-QC/5y/yearly

(To be transparent, there's controversy around calling hydroelectric renewable.)

foobarian

Hydro does rule. Top 8 power stations are hydro right now. And the top power station has been a hydro for over a hundred years now. Very cool! Three Gorges has capacity of 22.5 GW.

zdragnar

I really hope nothing bad happens at the three gorges dam. There's nearly half a billion people that would have to be evacuated, and tens of millions who likely wouldn't be able to evacuate in time due to proximity.

I'd rather live near a modern nuclear plant myself.

idreyn

These maps are such a cool resource, thanks for sharing!

"The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed." - William Gibson

mrtksn

Good luck building nuclear in non-generational timescales and at reasonable prices.

The future is solar simply because these electricity catchers from the sky fusion are mass producible goods that you can just keep pumping and pointing it to the sky in matter of days at dirt cheap prices.

newyankee

also because it is modular which really works for the Global south, it can be taken to demand centers and demand adjusted to the supply to a small extent (e.g. irrigation pumps)

xondono

> Good luck building nuclear in non-generational timescales and at reasonable prices.

Or we could treat nuclear rationally and stop increasing the price three orders of magnitude past diminishing returns..

cheema33

> Or we could treat nuclear rationally and stop increasing the price three orders of magnitude past diminishing returns

Who is we here? Do you have examples of any countries having successfully done what you are proposing?

null

[deleted]

alecco

Nothing to be proud of. Dangerous ancient reactors owned by an almost bankrupt company about to be nationalized.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/02/03/the-long...

KptMarchewa

>almost bankrupt company

"Published on February 3, 2023"

Since then, in 2023 and 2024 EDF posted over 10 billion a year profits.

pas

if they can run them safely they should. is ASN not trustworthy?

they are doing reviews every 10 year, and as they get older they can increase the frequency of reviews.

also the article mentions no dangers with regards to the reactors.

labrador

I remember the bad old days of rolling black outs when Enron was doing energy arbitrage with Calfifornia's electricity. A more recent negative event was the battery fire at Moss Landing on the Monterrey Bay near where I live. If we use Sodium-ion batteries in the future we won't have that risk.

"On January 16, 2025, the Moss Landing 300 battery energy storage system at the Moss Landing Vistra power plant (Monterey County, Calif.) caught fire."

- The 300-megawatt system held about 100,000 lithium-ion batteries. - About 55 percent of the batteries were damaged by the fire.

https://www.epa.gov/ca/moss-landing-vistra-battery-fire

SoftTalker

Any time you have hundreds of megawatts of energy stored in a small area there is risk. This includes steam boilers, nuclear reactors, batteries, dams, etc. No getting away from that. Not saying that some battery chemistry might not be easier to manage than others.

jonlucc

This is an inherent problem with storing power. There's a massive battery in Missouri known as the Taum Sauk hydroelectric dam. During the night, they pump water up the hill into the upper reservoir, and in the day, they let the water run downhill through turbines to generate electricity. In 2005, the wall of the upper reservoir failed.

jaggederest

Well we're probably going to see flow batteries take over in fixed position arrays which will mitigate the risk of fire pretty substantially, being low density and liquid. It's challenging though not impossible to light salt water on fire.

pfdietz

I thought the prospects for flow batteries were becoming fairly dire due to the decline in cost of Li-ion cells.

LFP promises better fire behavior than older Li-ion technologies, I think.

amitav1

"Ferb, I know what we're gonna do today"

hammock

People don’t talk enough about the risk of fire. The crazy thing is when a battery installation catches fire they don’t actually fight the fire. They just have to let it burn out. The resulting environmental damage is terrible.

This happened recently in the Central Valley. I can’t remember the name of the battery site but it was a huge one, and literally right next door to one of the largest Driscolls strawberry farms, on which black lithium smoke settled all over , over the course of several days/weeks in the middle of the summer.

Edit: maybe we are talking about the same fire? https://x.com/TheKevinDalton/status/1880277672393412848

3eb7988a1663

The reports I read said this was an older installation - was that one setup in the same way as a modern plant would be done? That is to say - was there anything unique about this failure scenario?

The pictures I saw was that the Moss batteries were located inside a building. My mental image of battery storage is freight-sized containers offset from each other - presumably to minimize fire risk. Or was this plant a common dense configuration that is done in areas where they are heavily space constrained?

delabay

LG Energy Solution supplied the lithium-ion battery racks/modules (TR1300 using LG JH4 NMC cells) for Vistra’s initial 300 MW/1,200 MWh Moss Landing system; Fluence was the system integrator/GC.

ViewTrick1002

The moss landing project has been expanded through several iterations. It started construction back in 2019 which is near ancient in terms of how fast the BESS industry has evolved.

Utilizing NMC cells which were popular at the time instead of the more stable LFP variety making up the vast majority of storage projects today.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moss_Landing_Power_Plant#Batte...

Manuel_D

One of my biggest pet peeves is when outlets talk about energy storage exclusively in terms of output and neglect to mention capacity. Does 15.7 gigawatts of storage mean 15.7 GWh? Capacity is as important, if not more important, than output.

pahkah

As someone who's interested in all this, I agree it would be nice to have more precision around capacity. Especially as it relates to longer term storage. But! In this context, output is more salient than capacity. You'll see a lot of stories about grid-scale storage that use output. (https://physics.stackexchange.com/q/854999 offers a fuller explanation than what I'll give here.)

This is because grid operators are most concerned with immediate power output. They need to keep the grid balanced, and if they need a gigawatt to do it, it doesn't matter if the batteries have 100 GWh if they can only discharge at 1 MW.

Since the batteries described here are used primarily to handle the peak of the duck curve (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_curve) it seems like 4 hours of capacity (the article mentions that the lithium-ion batteries have 4-6 hours of capacity) is sufficient to get over that difficult hump.

Anyway, to get back to your question of how many GWh, if we assume that the batteries have 4 hours of storage, then we're looking at around 4h * 15.7 GW = 63 GWh of battery capacity. (4 hours is what I've seen as standard for lithium-ion, conservative if the article's claim of "four to six hours" is true.)

Hope this helps ease the peeve!

chihuahua

Based on the following sentences from the article, it's probably 4 to 6 times more than 15.7 GWh (60 to 90 GWh, apparently):

"Battery energy storage is not without challenges, however. Lithium-ion batteries — the most common type used for energy storage — typically have about four to six hours of capacity. It’s enough to support the grid during peak hours as the sun sets, but can still leave some gaps to be filled by natural gas."

UltraSane

This also greatly annoyed me. 4 hours is the standard for grid storage batteries in California.

XorNot

The ratio for LiFePO4 is between 1:3 and 1:4.

So rated power will give you that for about 3 to 4 hours.

danans

Relatedly, CA utilities have begun offering hourly variable priced rate plans, which will allow consumers with batteries to theoretically achieve lower average rates if your batteries can rate-follow. It's still not available for net metering plans, though.

https://www.pge.com/en/account/rate-plans/hourly-flex-pricin...

https://www.pge.com/en/account/rate-plans/hourly-flex-pricin...

random3

There's this post about sodium-ion batteries from two days ago - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45677243

My understanding is that they are particularly good for large scale storage. It looks like it's relevant part of China's strategy.

Yet, there seems to be close to 0 in the US in general (except from some pilots). I find it weird at least to boast about battery energy storage as a strategy while ignoring the most relevant aspect wrt to the future of battery-based storage.

dwood_dev

While Sodium Ion may be the future of grid batteries, it's not the present. As long as LFP is cheaper, there is no reason to go with Sodium.

This calculus will probably change in 3-5 years, but today Sodium is more expensive and therefore has little demand without some form of discount or subsidy.

The switch will be rapid once the economics make sense, but they don't yet.

nharada

CATL is claiming mass production of their sodium-ion batteries starts in December, with a target price of $10/kWh. If that ends up even partway true it'll completely change the economics of power storage.

grayrest

> CATL is claiming mass production of their sodium-ion batteries starts in December, with a target price of $10/kWh.

This got widely reported but there doesn't seem to be any source. I'll reference this video [1] to cover the claim along with a comparison to industry projections. Apologies for the video link but I don't have an article handy that addresses the topic as directly.

[1] https://youtu.be/KjiqqafD_0w?t=861

bmicraft

That's plain wrong, they have not announced that price target anywhere. There is speculation that it could be there target internally for the long term, but there is basically zero chance they'll start at that price and no guarantees they'll ever reach it.

nextworddev

CATL is just dumping

JumpCrisscross

> It looks like it's relevant part of China's strategy

For grid storage? Source?

whiterook6

When they say their battery storage capacity is 15,000 MW, do they mean MWh? Because watts are time-independent, or rather, they're like speed to Joule's (watt-hour's) distance.

teruakohatu

I struggle to understand why journalists consistently failed to use Wh as a unit of power. People generally can understand it because it is how they are billed and how appliances are rated.

Even on HN people will defend not using Wh because there is some grid or city in the USA that bills differently.

bolangi

Because American literacy in math and hard sciences has only declined over the decades since the post-Sputnik spurt that benefited my generation. Journalism as practiced today doesn't require scientific literacy or rigor, or at least, they are secondary to the purposes of the writers' employers.

ericd

Later, they say “lithium ion batteries only have 4 to 6 hours of capacity”, which again, what? But maybe that implies that the actual capacity rating is their “capacity” x 4-6.

ajross

Uh... "Wh" is not a unit of power. Watts are units of power. Watt-hours measure energy. Probably journalists are getting this wrong for the same reason you are.

bolangi

The commenter was right that the correct unit is Wh, then slipped up. Does gasoline contain power? Do "high-power" Li-ion batteries? In common parlance, power and energy are used interchangeably. I believe people writing about science should hold themselves to a higher standard, but there is always something more important.

0cf8612b2e1e

I do not know why this particular one gets engineers so annoyed. Energy and power are synonymous in conversation with normal people. There is very little real world scenarios where people would be exposed to the precise meanings -of course everyone gets it wrong.

sgustard

CAISO's own documents quote battery capacity in MW. So I don't think you can just blame journalists.

"Battery storage capacity grew from about 500 MW in 2020 to 13,000 MW in December 2024"

https://www.caiso.com/documents/2024-special-report-on-batte...

As another commenter notes, utilities are interested in "capacity on call" i.e. instant power generation.

Gibbon1

Utilities are used using MW when discussing supply and demand. Because balancing that is critical. So power is what they care about when discussing grid connections.

The billing side and customers are concerned with total energy. So kwh.

Journalists typically don't know the difference. Which is why they list storage capacity in watts. They don't know any better and they don't care.

Far as I can tell multiply the watts by 4 hours to get watt hours.

Lammy

I don't really care if the power stays on for five-nines as long as I'm still paying 61¢/kW-h for it :/

https://www.pge.com/assets/pge/docs/account/rate-plans/resid...

bradlys

Criminally overpriced. We're not getting shit for it either.

God forbid you live in any of the more woody parts of California either. You'll have to have your own battery or generator anyway. As someone who plans to live in the Santa Cruz Mountains long term, I will be going completely off grid as PG&E will just cut power forever rather than fix anything.

potato3732842

>I will be going completely off grid as PG&E will just cut power forever rather than fix anything.

Depending on where you live you, your neighbors and/or your predecessors likely a) voted for people who wrote laws to make that illegal b) sneered at anyone who wouldn't want to be on the grid.

bradlys

It’s a capitalist run power grid in CA. It’s a publicly traded company. Nothing more capitalist than making my own power when the competition sucks ass.

sgustard

Well the faster you get off the grid, the cheaper it'll be for the rest of us. All PGE's problems are caused by running powerlines for you through fire-prone kindling wilderness.

Lammy

We could have had atomic energy generated right here in the Bay Area (Sonoma). You can actually go visit the “hole in Bodega Head” where PG&E started digging the reactor pit before being made to stop: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bodega_Bay_Nuclear_Power_Plant

bradlys

PG&E's problems are caused by malcompliance and the rules being written by a public traded company instead of by an accountable government. There are plenty of people living in the woods in other states that aren't causing massive wildfires that cover the US in smoke every season.

dmix

Why is PG&E so poorly run? I don't live there, just follow the news and their name comes up constantly in negative press.

RedShift1

Greed and no competition.

bradlys

It’s a public company, not run directly by the government. It has a monopoly dictated by the CA government.

They have no interest in doing good service but instead in making money. They don’t have to really answer to anyone. Supposedly the CA government could implement things to improve the lives of Californians that would influence how PG&E operates but CA politicians are bought off by this corporation. So, there we have it

know-how

[dead]

blindriver

This. Electricity costs are almost 5x the cost in Nevada.

JumpCrisscross

PG&E's corruption is laid bare by Silicon Valley Power, which serves the town of Santa Clara, charging less than half what PG&E does for the house a few blocks over [1].

[1] https://www.siliconvalleypower.com/residents/rates-and-fees

jeffbee

I will only put this down once because I repeat it in many threads and I'm sure people are tired of hearing it, but the reason that isolated municipal utilities are offering great prices locally is that they are free-riding on things that PG&E ratepayers bought.

JumpCrisscross

> they are free-riding on things that PG&E ratepayers bought

Genuinely curious, how is that the case for Silicon Valley Power?

nickzelei

What does it mean saying California hasn’t done a Flex Alert since 2022? PG&E issued 3-4 in September/October this year. Is that different?

alecco

The Financial Times has a much better article: https://ig.ft.com/mega-batteries/

benzible

I'm hungry for good news about technical solutions working - especially right now when Trump just killed the US's largest solar project (6.2 GW in Nevada), ended USDA solar support for farms, and posted "We will not approve...Solar". So I wanted to check if California's battery story holds up.

The data is actually encouraging. Peak demand hit 48,323 MW in 2024 - higher than the 2020 blackout year's 47,121 MW [1]. Weather was severe: 2023 broke 358 California temperature records, 2024 saw valleys top 110°F during multiple heat waves [2][3]. Battery discharge reached 5-7 GW during Sept 2024 peaks, offsetting ~16% of demand [4]. That's real.

Fair caveat: 2020 had compounding failures (imports fell 3,000 MW short, gas plants failed, planning issues [5]), and recent years benefited from better coordination and wet winters. But batteries were clearly the biggest new factor - going from 500 MW in 2020 to 15,700 MW today is massive buildout, and it performed when tested.

Nice to see an existence proof that we can make progress on adapting to climate change's second-order effects, maybe even progress on root causes - through technology, at scale, in the United States of 2025.

[1] https://www.caiso.com/Documents/CaliforniaISOPeakLoadHistory...

[2] https://news.caloes.ca.gov/extreme-heat-breaking-records-at-...

[3] https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/california-...

[4] https://blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-beats-the-heat/

[5] https://calmatters.org/environment/2020/08/california-2020-r...

dxxvi

Does it make the electricity price go down or up? It seems to me that the electricity price never goes down.