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Big Data was used to see if TCM was scientific (2023)

StopTheWorld

In 2015, the Nobel Prize in Medicine was won by Tu Youyou.

During the Vietnamese resistance war, Vietnamese moving down the Ho Chi Minh rail were contracting malaria in the jungle. The Chinese were asked for aid, and Tu Youyou was tasked with assembling a team to help.

One thing Tu Youyou did was consult "traditional Chinese medicine" with how to aid victims of malaria. Most of what she found did not work, but wormwood did produce results. Tu Youyou again consulted traditional Chinese medicinal texts and they said wormwood should be used with cold water. The team extracted artemisinin from the wormwood in cold water, and a new (and old) way of fighting malaria was born.

Aurornis

> Most of what she found did not work, but wormwood did produce results.

TCM is interesting: There are countless different TCM preparations that do nearly nothing are can be actively harmful to the kidneys or liver, but every once in a while there is a a novel compound discovered in some plant somewhere that does something.

I can’t tell how much of this is because TCM has some treatments that actually work, or if it’s a case of a broken clock being right twice a day. I suspect it’s more of the latter.

djtango

Just because we have made innovations in the method of research and discovery doesn't mean that we should throw away everything that we had before.

Around me I see practices like "gratitude", "meditation" and "breathing exercises" get bandied around like they're some new profound thing as if we hadn't known about for thousands of years that have appeared in various guises universally throughout different civilisations.

Just because the metaphors and models of explanations could be flawed doesn't mean the effects should be thrown out

Edit: I have a good friend, a scientist no less, who suffered from severe eczema and was completely let down by western medicine who was put through decades of progressively stronger and stronger steroids. Nothing worked. Eventually the doctors gave up and shrugged their shoulders and was advised to give "alternative medicine" a go. Desperate my friend visited a traditional Chinese doctor who was prepared to guide them through a rigorous exclusion diet while also preparing mystery herb soup and suddenly a lifetime of eczema subsided and became very manageable.

The older I get the more determined I find myself trying to glean the accrued wisdom of people who came before us...

Aurornis

> Around me I see practices like "gratitude", "meditation" and "breathing exercises" get bandied around like they're some new profound thing as if we hadn't known about for thousands of years that have appeared in various guises universally throughout different civilisations.

Most people don’t care where, when, or why a concept was invented as long as it works.

Quibbling over who discovered it first or trying to drag the conversation back to who discovered it first is like the person who tries to claim credit for being into a band before they were popular: Nobody cares, they just want to enjoy it.

> The older I get the more determined I find myself trying to glean the accrued wisdom of people who came before us...

Going back to the actual article: There is a big illusion of accrued wisdom of the ancients in TCM that isn’t backed up by the research. There are occasional hits where a TCM preparation intersects with a truly active compound, but it should be raising red flags when TCM practitioners claim to have cures for everything and different TCM practitioners will come up with different answers for the same patient. When the first one doesn’t work they’ll have another answer the next visit, and the next visit, and so on.

nsoonhui

A lot of scientists dabbled into pseudoscience but that doesn't invalidate their scientific accomplishment, and their scientific achievement doesn't validate their pseudoscientific pursuit

dkarl

> doesn't validate their pseudoscientific pursuit

If you take an idea with a pseudoscientific origin, and you test it in a sound scientific way, you're doing science, not pseudoscience.

mgh2

I am sure there are some truths in some thousand years of research, ala "Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater", but that doesn't validate the system or study as a whole.

_alternator_

My favorite paragraph lands near the end, after a great debunking of the paper:

> The authors behind the paper drawing connections between symptoms, proteins, and Chinese herbs are hopeful that their model will show which herbs used in TCM seem particularly promising. They claim that chemicals in some herbs are known to interact with the same proteins involved in a particular symptom, but that this herb-symptom association has so far been ignored by TCM practitioners. They give several examples, such as Aristolochia fangchi known colloquially as Fang Ji which, based on their computer work, could help with abdomen distention. Patients beware: that plant was used in the 1990s instead of the listed herb as part of a slimming regimen in Belgium, where it caused “an outbreak of terminal renal failure.” That is something that abstract maps of chemical interactions may not tell you, but we should not forget what we already know from experience.

cdf

I am biased as an ethnic Chinese, but I feel modern medicine is afraid that it's approach, the sum of parts empiricism may be incomplete, in that we dont understand all the parts yet.

The human body is not just human DNA organs working together, but also an ecosystem with myriad bacteria, and we are still in infancy when it comes to understanding the bacteria.

TCM seeks a black box metaphorical approach, which sounds like quackery but I do think it is capable of addressing _some_ blindspots in modern medicine, eg why some medication would work on a yin body but not a yang body... the difference is in the bacterial ecosystem.

That said, I see TCM (and other traditional approaches) as a last resort when modern medicine fails, and I certainly agree the approach is incapable of resisting shamanic beliefs.

dheera

This is also how I feel as well.

There are symptoms and idiopathic conditions I've had that multiple specialists at top-tier hospitals were unable to diagnose, but mostly because they were too-narrowminded in their approach (blood tests, etc.) to see the big picture.

FooBarWidget

I am also Chinese and this is exactly how I feel. The experience of going to a doctor with minor ailments, only to be sent away with the attitude of "take some paracetamol and come back when symptoms worsen" is maddening. In the mean time TCM practitioners have answers that often work for these kinds of things.

In people's zeal to point out TCM's problems (due to its pre-modern scientific roots), I feel like they're also throwing away its potential. Skepticism shouldn't be about wholesale dismissal (which is just intellectual laziness masked as rightenousness) but about improving outcomes.

cyberax

> In the mean time TCM practitioners have answers that often work for these kinds of things.

You can also take some homeopathic remedies and do a couple of chiropractic adjustments meanwhile. I've also heard that some Christian Science practitioners work wonders if you give them all your Earthly belongings.

The ability to say: "It's likely a viral disease. Wait and see if it worsens" - is a pretty powerful point _in_ _favor_ of modern medicine.

cdf

The unspoken part is the human mind is a big part in health, and treatments that does nothing medically but fools the human mind can work wonders too. There is a lot we do not understand yet, just as blood letting was conventional medicine a few hundred years ago, and it isnt even entirely wrong since we still use leeches and some treatment, I think we have much to gain if we are not hasty in dismissing alternative approaches.

That said, I fully agree homeopathy and chiropractherapy are full of bullshit and potentially dangerous. TCM, as practiced in a certified scholarly environment in Asia, expects the practitioner to have a considerable basic knowledge in modern medicine too, and is humble enough to acknowledge TCM cannot solve everything. A good TCM practitioner will refer you to a GP when they know modern medicine is more effective.

FooBarWidget

And just who here is rejecting the viral model? Saying "other practitions have stuff worth exploring" is not at all the same as "the regular western medicine model should be abandoned". Why do you feel threathened? This makes no sense to me.

Yet the inverse is not true: the prevailing attitude on HN here is not "western medicine is here to stay as staple but other practitions can add value on top", but to dismiss other practitions wholesale based on their inability to conform to intellectual standards, regardless of measurable outcomes. This is "my god is the only god" all over again.

A chiropractor was able to heal my back problems where months of going to a physiotherapist failed to do so. Aren't we supposed to stay humble and curious for new avenues of scientific exploration, rather than dismissing everything we don't understand?

genman

Why not apply scientific method to Traditional Chinese Medicine and use double blinded placebo controlled trials to test its validity? In the end also modern medicine is using exactly this method and can treat substances using the black box method.

null

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cdf

The fundamental problem is TCM acknowledges individual differences that cannot be measured or even dont exist in the eyes of modern medicine, eg identical twins with different diets will have different responses to the same treatment, so going double blind will mean the results will be inconsistent.

BigGreenJorts

This is why sample size is important tho. With a large enough sample size, you can ignore differences in individuals bc the trend of the control will be smaller than the experiment (or not)

FooBarWidget

They are doing that — in China, in Chinese papers. Not everything has been researched yet, but there's quite a lot of active research going on.

bvan

Lumping all aspects of TCM into one thesis to be proved or disproved seems ill-advised. Would you think of treating western medicine, and all the ground it covers as a single monolithic field to prove/disprove?

maxglute

Well marketted placebo has it's place, ancient wisdom/mysticism more useful make believe than plethora of of modern health supplments backed by mediocre "research". It's easier placebo narrative to believe in.

E: A 100b (possibly multiple) industry doesn't hurt either, which is... shockingly large. I was going to joke people spend more on dumber things to feel good, but that's... a solid chunk of change.

teleforce

The Chinese and Korean golden herbs ginseng is way overrated. Just consume ginger instead of the 100x more expensive ginseng for all the recipes that people been come up over the centuries and the nutritional benefits probably the same if not better. It is essentially an overpriced souvenirs for your in-laws, that's it.

SuperNinKenDo

I've taken pretty low grade ginseng and gotten a pretty noticeable stimulant effect from it. That's certainly never happened with ginger.

teleforce

Care to provide details of the stimulant effect that you were experiencing?

I'm mainly referring on the nutritional and health benefits that the in-laws perceived if they were bought as souvenir a few thousands dollars worth of 1 kg ginseng as opposed to the equivalent of 1 kg ginger worth a few dollars [1],[2].

[1] Ginseng:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ginseng

[2] Ginger:

https://en.mmwikipedia.org/wiki/Ginger

JSteph22

The placebo effect is a helluva drug.

mannyv

Most illnesses take care of themselves in about a week or so.

teddyh

China is in a bind; for propaganda reasons, they can’t back down from their support of “traditional Chinese *”, just like the USSR with Lysenkoism.

dkarl

My prediction: within 50-100 years, traditional Chinese medicine will be like osteopathy in the United States: impossible to distinguish from mainstream modern medicine, even though it bears a name reflecting its origins in pseudoscience.

It'll be easy enough for them to manage from a perception standpoint. They'll just declare that modern medicine has recognized and assimilated the concepts of traditional Chinese medicine, that "modern" medicine as taught and practiced in the west now reflects traditional Chinese concepts, and that western medicine and traditional Chinese medicine have evolved convergently to the same point because western medicine copied Chinese medicine. It'll be accepted by people who know better as a polite lie.

The original appeal of traditional Chinese medicine to the Chinese government was that it made it possible for them to provide a form of officially recognized health care to the entire population long before they were able to train enough doctors. From the government's point of view, there's no reason for it to outlive that necessity. If they want a flood of chauvinistic pro-TCM propaganda to proclaim Chinese superiority -- maybe they do, maybe they don't -- they can do that while at the same time having schools of TCM teach basically the same thing as western medical schools.

kurthr

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georgeburdell

Given the prodigious amount of pro-TCM papers coming out of China, I am concerned about a 51%-type attack on our peer review process that will take decades if not centuries to undo.

alephnerd

There isn't much strategy behind pro-TCM papers other than "publish and perish" due to the hyper-competitive and metrics driven nature of Chinese academia. Most of these papers will be published in lower tier journals and used as a line-item within their CV in order to meet departmental KPIs or get promotions or funding, and some nameless bureaucrat won't care because metrics have been hit and his ass has been covered.

My SO had to publish similar kinds of papers when she was in Vietnam - she also had to spend $4-6k in "gifts" for the members of her thesis defense committee (despite her earning a stipend of around $100/mo) and publish politically oriented papers otherwise some technicality would come up to prevent her from getting permission for further research in Japan on an ASEAN grant, and this was at Vietnam's equivalent of JHU.

There is a similar trend in India with Aryuveda/Unani.

The strategic and commercialized research that matters always aligns tends to align with modern medicine.

That said, folk medicine does have credence in a lot of Asia (even in China today) due to issues around access and trust. There is a need for mid-level practitioners, and working on mainstreaming and retraining folk medicine practitioners as MLPs could help from a primary care perspective, and is a strategy both China and India are starting to leverage.

duskwuff

> There is a similar trend in India with Aryuveda/Unani.

It might actually be worse. There's a strong religious/nationalist element to some Ayurvedic promoters in India which vociferously rejects any kind of scientific rigor - the attitude amounts to "if Western science says Ayurveda is wrong, Western science must be wrong". TCM doesn't seem to attract the same degree of dogmatism.

alephnerd

It isn't all that different. The religious aspect of Aryuveda/Unani isn't that significant (no one is quoting sutras or the Koran in AYUSH "research" - they're BSing systemic and evidence based methods the same way TCM "researchers" are), and Aryuveda/Unani programs (BAMS/BUMS) aren't much different from their TCM equivalents in their "research" as well as curriculum.

India's AYUSH Ministry (founded 2014) is itself based on China's NATCM and the formalization of TCM in the 60s-70s.

And just like in China, BAMS/BUMS is used as a stopgap MLP in rural and underserved communities the same way TCM is in China.

Both are holdovers from the anti-colonial movement of the 50-70s that continue to be cynically used as stopgaps for failures at expanding MLP in both countries, because no real doctor wants to work in a rural primary clinic earning $200-400/mo when they can demand 6-7x that working as a doctor in an urban area with superior amenities.

awesome_dude

I read this response and immediately thought - it's not an exclusive problem of the Chinese academia, Western academia is struggling HARD with the problem.

It's such a big problem in Western academia that the political class in several countries are able to deny "experts", and their understandings.

People in general have seen so many missteps within Western academia, both allowing some really poor science to be published, and wrongly denying (and ridiculing) what turned out to be solid (thankfully some of these things are discovered when actual scientific method is employed and hypothesis are tested), that they are willing to accept politicians who deny science.

alephnerd

The problem exists in Western academia as well, but not to the same magnitude as in much of Asia.

In Western and especially American academia, there are private sector grants and commercialization avenues for research. Outside of top tier programs (think Peking tier programs in China or AIIMS tier programs in India), that's nonexistent in most Asian countries, so your department's funding is at the whim of government bureaucrats who tend to be recruited via civil service exams and promoted based on political loyalty, not based on domain experience.

Furthermore, Folk Medicine programs are heavily sponsored in a number of Asian countries as a misguided attempt at building an MLP pipeline plus as a cash grab by local or provincial governments who often treat these kinds of programs as businesses.

underlipton

>and this was at Vietnam's equivalent of JHU.

I mean, you could change some trivial details and end up with a valid description of JHU. How much is tuition in Vietnam? There're your "gifts". And so on. What language was "replication crisis" initially coined in? (No, for real, I don't know.)

alephnerd

> How much is tuition in Vietnam

Public medical school tuition is around $3-6k per year in a country where most households aren't earning above $300/mo, financial aid is nonexistent, and "student loans" for the middle class means going to some tattooed chain smoker jeweler who pounds Ruou San Dinh like water and demands double digit interest rates.

> you could change some trivial details and end up with a valid description of JHU

You don't have JHU students (or any Western medical students) moonlighting as unlicensed doctors under their professors working license and giving them a $200-500/mo cut. This is fairly common at UMP Hanoi and HCMC, let alone lower tier programs. You also don't need to pay a $1-3k bribe in speed money to get your working license in the US.

---------

There's a reason my SO immigrated abroad like a lot of her peers - if you don't have the right connections or enough money (black or white), you will not succeed in Vietnam.

Thao Dien, Landmark 81, Sunrise City, and D1 is not representative of middle class Vietnam - neighborhoods like D10 and Phu Nhuan is.

null

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tkcranny

You know what they call alternative medicine that's been proved to work? - Medicine.

—Tim Minchin

A_D_E_P_T

TCM has a lot of wins along just those lines. For instance:

Artemisinin (qinghaosu) from artemisia annua. This won the 2015 Nobel Prize, and is now the cornerstone of global malaria therapy.

Arsenic trioxide, the purified form of the TCM mineral pishuang, now a very common treatment for acute promyelocytic leukemia. Often curative in a single dose: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221304891...

Camptothecin from camptotheca acuminata, precursor of topotecan and irinotecan for solid tumours.

Ephedrine from ephedra sinica -- template for modern bronchodilators and decongestants.

Many others. Omacetaxine, minnelide, and more.

Very often, the first thing a medicinal chemist seeking new drug templates does is look to herbs that are used by indigenous populations or in "traditional" medicine systems. There's an entire journal dedicated to this:

> https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-ethnopharma...

spauka

Ironically, you've picked an example (Artemisinin) which is discussed at some length in the linked article - as an example where TCM success is overstated and not backed up by real-world results!

See P5-6 in section "The implausibility problem" - which points out that in order for the treatment to be effective it had to be refined into a form that is not rapidly eliminated from the body.

A_D_E_P_T

That's an extremely silly objection when (a) artemisinin is effective as a standalone drug if you administer it frequently enough, (b) the discovery of artemisinin and its derivatives in malaria treatment was quite literally inspired by TCM, and (c) most natural products are modified prior to use in pharmaceutical industry, and artemisinin is particularly lightly modified. (Just given a simple ester in artesunate's case.)

roncesvalles

It's still not a vindication of TCM specifically. All traditional medicine cultures have contributed something to modern medicine. E.g. willow bark was used to treat pain for thousands of years, which led to the discovery of aspirin. I believe even cholesterol-reducing statins come from traditional medicinal herb.

Naturopathic medicinal cultures aren't totally bullshit. They're just "unscientific" i.e. they haven't gone through the rigors of the scientific method to establish their efficacy, or often their etiologies and mechanisms of action are completely made-up.

A_D_E_P_T

> I believe even cholesterol-reducing statins come from traditional medicinal herb.

Yeah, lovastatin comes from red yeast rice, which is also TCM. The other statins are downstream of it.

> Naturopathic medicinal cultures aren't totally bullshit. They're just "unscientific" i.e. they haven't gone through the rigors of the scientific method to establish their efficacy, or often their etiologies and mechanisms of action are completely made-up.

I agree 100%. But natural products are -- and always have been -- the great repository of drug templates. All modern pharmacopoeias owe a real debt to TCM in particular.

Instead of complaining like the guy who wrote the article in OP, it's best to try and take what's good and discard what's bad, without preconceptions or prejudice.

rtpg

I'm not particularly bought into the traditional chinese medicine stuff but isn't the line more drawn at how "normal" medicine is about synthesizing specific doses of chemicals to give those?

Meanwhile if someone told me "yeah eating a bunch of ginger when you have a cold is good to you because ginger has a bunch of stuff that's good for your body then" I don't have a particularly hard time believing it. Sure! Why not!

The article's critique about symptom management rather than disease management is legit though. And the precision for actual research is good. But at the end of the day if my body needs some stuff for symptom management and some TCM strategy involves me giving myself like 20x the dose of it... well it's something, isn't it? Though you could argue about it "deserving" credit or not.

Nobody whines about the unscientificness of giving yourself a bunch of salt through chicken noodle soup after a hangover.

arp242

> Nobody whines about the unscientificness of giving yourself a bunch of salt through chicken noodle soup after a hangover.

Sure, but that doesn't come with an entire theory about Chi energy lines, and no one claims this is "medicine" either (other than perhaps jokingly).

That's really the key thing. If you want to get a massage, or aromatherapy, or Reiki or whatever just because you like it, then that's fine. I'm happy for you! Massages even have proven benefits. Some may have benefits that are not yet proven. If you start claiming it will cure your cancer however...

This is also why I don't buy "detox" drinks that some restaurants have, even though some of them seem quite nice. The "detox" is just bollocks. I once even saw "detox" coriander leaves in the store. I like coriander. Maybe it's even good for you (I don't know). But "detox" coriander? Just, ugh...

sorcerer-mar

No... Normal medicine is whatever we know works. It is unfathomably hard to figure out whether something works, ergo it is very specific knowledge (specific isolated compounds in specific amounts).

> well it's something, isn't it?

It's probably not!

If you want to say such remedies produce a placebo effect and that's sufficient for such purposes, IMO that's a valid approach.

rtpg

Fair enough, I can agree with the idea that you draw the line at "knowledge, gotten in the 'correct' way" as the categorization strategy.

In the abstract I'm open to some specific traditional medicine thing working for "some" reason, but I understand that that makes me (as they say in the industry) a mark.

SuperNinKenDo

On the other hand, this does lead to a situation where people simultaneously scoff at a school of thought while telling you that all the useful stuff from said school has already been integrated into whatever orthodoxy they represent. Must be nice to be able to claim credit for something while deriding the people who actually discovered it. Not that I'm a huge "stan" for TCM or anything. I'm very much not.

zaptheimpaler

However, the case of meditation/mindfulness shows that it can take a very long time between a treatment being invented and it being proven to work. It was called pseudoscience until it was statistically proven to work. Unproven is not disproven.

But it takes discernment to know which unproven thing might work and won't hurt though. TCM sounds more dangerous than not because the herbs you can get will be unregulated and possibly contaminated.

arp242

Something can simultaneously be a pseudo-science and still work. Do some aspects of TCM have benefits? Sure, probably – it's a huge field. But that's more coincidental than anything else, and their mechanisms of action are unrelated to TCM's pseudo-scientific theories. If you go to a forest and start eating random stuff then some will also have some benefit.

I'm not familiar with the history of meditation or mindfulness, but I've seen people claim some pretty ridiculous things about yoga, perhaps the most ludicrous was someone claiming that some positions will prevent certain cancers due to "massaging your organs". Yoga absolutely has benefits but that's just nonsense.

jxjnskkzxxhx

Dara O'Brien.

atombender

Are you trying saying the quote is misattributed? Because it's from Tim Minchin's comedy act/poem "Storm" [1].

[1] https://youtu.be/KtYkyB35zkk?si=QfGJepREYJIlg3hd

rcxdude

I'm not sure if it was completely original there. It's a relatively common retort now, though I do think that Storm was the first time I recall hearing it.