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GLP-1s Are Breaking Life Insurance

GLP-1s Are Breaking Life Insurance

264 comments

·July 13, 2025

hiAndrewQuinn

So... There's a miracle drug powerful enough to robustly lower people's all cause mortality, but since health insurance and life insurance are industries with vastly different time preferences, this is not a good thing for the life insurers because people just keep getting off the magic longevity drug and screwing up their predictions. Because, admittedly, it kind of sucks in the moment to be on.

And I'm guessing just based on my own experience paying for term life that the actual premia differences aren't actually enough in most cases for the life insurer to simply pay out of pocket themselves; the differences probably add up to a few hundred per year per customer, whereas a year's worth of a GLP-1 agonist probably costs a couple thousand (for now, in 2025, and probably dropping rapidly).

Huh. Second order implementation details aside, this is an extremely fortunate turn of events for us.

loeg

They aren't even that awful in maintenance -- just expensive. The unpleasant part is when you're increasing the dose. After a while at the same dose, it's more or less unnoticeable IMO.

gregw134

Unnoticable meaning doesn't have any effect at all, or just no bad side effects?

throwawaysleep

As in I cannot identify anything wrong with me most of the time while on them.

ramoz

Can you explain what sucks about being on the prescriptions?

hiAndrewQuinn

I'm just reporting my cached knowledge of people saying they experienced some adverse side effects. Also injections are not fun, even though they are probably a lot less annoying than they look.

ChadNauseam

A once-weekly subcutaneous injection is not a big deal for most people I think, outside of those who are very afraid of needles. It's a tiny needle and you don't even feel it. I've given injections to people who are afraid of needles, and they sometimes close their eyes in fear and are begging me to "just get it over with" without even realizing that I'm already done. Anyway, all this to say that outside of needle-phobic people I think the annoyance of the injections is probably not the reason people stop taking GLP-1 agonists.

toomuchtodo

Once daily pills will very likely replace injections in the near future.

Eli Lilly will soon release key data on its weight loss pill orforglipron - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43465346 - March 2025

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orforglipron

nwienert

In the 10 or so people I know who are on it, nearly all actually seem to enjoy it - reduced addictive tendencies/bad habits, appetite control, and reduced allergies seem to pretty well outweigh the minor side effects.

null

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dooglius

There's an auto-injector mechanism, at least with my brand; you don't need to needle yourself

Spivak

Subcutaneous shots with insulin needles are basically painless. You don't even feel a prick, it's just a little pressure and then it slides in. When you get a shot at the doctor it's painful because they're intramuscular.

gedy

I've taken these and self injected, and it was surprising that I really felt nothing - no pain at all. I suppose because they recommend in stomach, and it's not in muscle, etc.

DrillShopper

Hi there - Mounjaro user here. I've been using it for about a year at this point.

I feel sick for three days in a row after taking it. Even after several months on the same dose. I get horrible gut cramps, sour stomach, near constant nausea, and occasionally vomiting and diarrhea. I have to take my shot on Thursday night because I'll feel bad the next day and supremely sick the next two days. If I took it earlier or later in the week it would absolutely impact my ability to work during the work week.

It has had amazing effects. I've lost about 60 lbs in the last year and my A1c is now around 6.2.

It's a very effective drug, but it is brutal on my body. I'm not sure anything in the medication is causing the weight loss. It just makes me feel so sick that even if I'm hungry I don't feel like eating.

phil21

These are pretty extreme side effects for being on the drug thus long.

What dosing are you on? If you’re still doing 2.5mg (smallest available in the auto injectors) perhaps try a compounding pharmacy for a month or two and you can experiment with lower doses and a different dosing schedule?

During my peak weight loss period I found that matching my injection schedule to the 5 day half life of Tirzepatide and adjusting the dose downwards to match this schedule helped with any side effects - including the “fading” of effects those last 2 or 3 days for me. There are half life calculator spreadsheets available on the internet that can help dial it in and keep your theoretical concentration more flatline vs peaks and valleys.

The current dosing regime is based on the single FDA trial that LLY did and is certainly not going to be the common practice a decade from now. It’s largely designed around patient compliance than anything else.

That said - everyone responds to this drug much differently. My little group I’m in is all over the map. Some folks lose weight consistently with tiny doses every 2 weeks, some are going above the recommended maximum weekly dose.

I also found food choices matter. A lot. The best part of tirz for me was being given mental space to stop eating shit food and start eating “clean” consistently. When on high dosing I absolutely would have a bad day if I decided to take my shot and then eat a typical American diet later.

The primary mode of action from the drug is simply you eat less. But it shouldn’t be due to you feeling too sick to keep anything down. That sounds pretty horrible.

schwartzworld

I’m curious what your diet is like, especially at the end of the week when the medicine is weakest. If I eat dairy, sugar, etc in the day or two before my semaglutide, I feel similarly.

jstummbillig

I mean no offense, but you have a fairly substantiated body of evidence that something in the medication is causing the weight loss. The side effects do sound really shitty though.

make3

I don't know how overweight you are, but could you not just reduce the dose to get fewer side effects & still have reasonable weight loss? & Did you try other GLP-1s?

zer00eyz

> And I'm guessing just based on my own experience paying for term life that the actual premia differences aren't actually enough in most cases for the life insurer to simply pay out of pocket themselves; the differences probably add up to a few hundred per year per customer, whereas a year's worth of a GLP-1 agonist probably costs a couple thousand (for now, in 2025, and probably dropping rapidly).

I wonder why life insurance isnt funding more research into things like metformin, where we have amazing long standing data but haven't done the real research. See: https://www.afar.org/tame-trial

petesergeant

> admittedly, it kind of sucks in the moment to be on

I don’t think that’s a typical experience for most people, other than the price

mattmanser

There's often side effects, including nausea, diarrhea, headaches, bloating, discomfort, etc.

As far as I can tell from forums, it's not like 5% have the side effects, it's like 80-90%.

But for the first time in decades, I felt full. I didn't want to finish a meal, it was too much.

My body regulated my food intake in what felt like a natural way.

I hadn't even realized my body had somehow lost that fundamental mechanism of appetite control. It made me realize I wasn't weak willed, something is different about my body than other people.

But it comes with a price. The side effects I had were quite bad and so I stopped (though I now read that if I switch to a different brand, I might be ok).

I often didn't want to leave the house due to a dicky tummy. It could come/go in waves. But often can last a whole week.

Plus you've got to inject yourself every week. Often you can't drink as it makes you sick. Even when you're doing everything 'right' you can feel a bit off.

If you do over-indulge (with food or drink) the side effects can sometimes be massively amplified and you feel terrible for days.

So amazing in some ways, but it's not like taking a vitamin tablet. There are costs and making one slip up can result in suddenly feeling awful for a day or two.

Perhaps I was just particularly prone to the side effects, but it seems to happen to a lot of people (I found Mumsnet threads about it useful, they are quite revealing as they seem to be fairly honest and willing to share their experiences)

sroussey

From the people I know on trizepitide, side effects were strongest when upping the dosage in the protocol, particularly two days after. The advice I have received while considering it:

- change your diet. you can't eat the same food at the same volume. or even is smaller volume if the food is a burger, etc.

- watch your drinking, your tolerance for alcohol is reset, and again on the volume thing

- drink a lot of water. apparently opposite to all the volume warnings above, lol

- split dosage and inject twice a week. (i dunno, talk to your doctor. also this only works when you have a vial and not the auto-injectors, though apparently the autoinjectors are way more expensive)

On the other hand, when i ask about what happens if you go on a bender and eat two burgers and lots of fries and drink a six pack?? From people that used to gladly do that: "gross, why would i do that?" That there is the real change.

JoshTriplett

> As far as I can tell from forums, it's not like 5% have the side effects, it's like 80-90%.

Happy people with no issues are less likely to post, or post as often.

That said, much sympathy for the people who do experience particularly bad side effects.

loeg

I had more side effects ramping up the dose than after a while at the same dose. But they were all fairly mild. (I'm on 5mg/week of Tirzepatide; higher doses probably have more side effects.)

> If you do over-indulge (with food or drink) the side effects can sometimes be massively amplified and you feel terrible for days.

Never had anything like that.

null

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DrillShopper

The one thing that helped blunt the side effects for me was cannabis. Just a few puffs at night on the three nights after my injection made a huge difference.

I wouldn't recommend that to everyone, but it helped a lot for me.

linsomniac

>There's a miracle drug powerful enough to robustly lower people's all cause mortality

Did I misread the article, my TL;DR of the article is that GLP-1 reduce the indicators or mortality without modifying the actual mortality (because most users return to normal indicators within about 2 years).

yumraj

> because most users return to normal indicators within about 2 years

Because they stop taking GLP-1s after 1-2 years, not, it seems, because the meds stop working.

pie_flavor

No, it's a miracle drug that drops mortality by a ton. The indicators aren't being faked. The weight causes the mortality, and the weight loss reduces it, and the weight regain reintroduces it. GLP1RAs introduce some noise to the indicators but not enough to cause what you're implying.

dragonwriter

It's a maintenance medicine, not a cure, so if people stop taking it, they return to the same problems they had without it.

aetherson

And it's under-commented upon because it's counterintuitive, but most people stop taking it. Like, two year continuation of use is about 25%.

That's kinda wild, because it seems like holy shit if you're taking a drug that lets you drop 10-20% of your body weight from obese down to normal why would you stop taking it, but people do.

JumpCrisscross

> if people stop taking it, they return to the same problems they had without it

Source? Everyone I know who stopped taking it rebounded a bit, but not to where they were. And no literature shows 100% rebound to my knowledge.

paulpauper

The drugs do not reduce mortality much or even at all. Such drugs may improve quality of life though. Except for severe obesity, 40+ BMI, life expectancy is not lowered much in men and even less in women in the setting of obesity. It's just that being obese makes all sorts of markers worse, yet people do not die much sooner. It's more about improving quality of life.

readthenotes1

"If we assume about 65% of people who start GLP-1 medications quit by the end of year one, that creates a big problem. When someone stops the medication, they'll usually regain the weight they lost, and in two years, most of those key health indicators (like BMI, blood pressure, blood sugar and cholesterol) bounce back to their starting point. "

So in addition to the quitters returning back to normal after they got life insurance underwritten when they were healthy, we have the unknown of the longevity of people on the glp-1 drugs.

paulpauper

Except for extreme obesity, it is about the same as people not on the drugs . Even moderate obesity only lowers life expectancy by a few years in men and about none in women. of course, quality of life will may be worse. Obesity only meaningfully lowers life expectancy at a BMI of 40-45+ for men

refulgentis

Subtly different: you read "most...return to normal...within 2 years", it says "When someone stops the medication, they'll [return to baseline]"

Then from there, I click through the 65% #, assuming they have a good study on 65% of people stop after a year. Nah, they don't. It's super complex but tl;dr: specific cohort, and somehow the # getting on it in year 2 is higher than the # of people who quit in year 1.

I have a weak to medium prior, after 10m evaluating, that the entire thing might be built on more sand than it admits.

Lot of little slants that create an absolute tone - ex. multiple payouts over the "lifetime" of a life insurance policy. (sure, it's technically possible)

Also there's no citation for the idea this mortality slippage happened because of GLP-1, and it's been out for...what...a year? Maybe two?

That's an awful lot of people who were about to die, saved in the nick of time by...losing weight? Again, possible, I'm sure it even happened in some cases.

Enough to skew mortality slippage from 5.3% to 15.3%?

I thought they were 98% accurate?

Wait...is the slippage graph net life increase slippage? Or any slippage?

Because it's very strange this explosion happened in exactly the year of a global pandemic that had sky-high mortality rates for older people.

samus

Since it's so new, of course there aren't any long-term data on GLP-1 takers. However, relying on prior knowledge about people who are good on the metrics, it can be presumed that they will do fine. And won't create financial risk for the insurer due to passing on earlier than expected. But only if they keep taking their meds and/or fix any underlying behavioral and health issues that made them obese in the first case!

Regarding the graph about slippage: yes, that looks like the Covid peak. However, even assuming this recent trend is an anomaly, the industry is in a changing landscape and needs to adapt. New metrics and criteria, and the fastest mover will capture the market. Business as usual.

I don't feel sad except for the people who managed to bring their health issues under control and now can't get life insurance.

jiveturkey

For a single person, perhaps fortunate. What about in aggregate? What if the math is so bad that your life insurer goes bankrupt?

hiAndrewQuinn

... I just switch life insurance providers?

Seriously, that's just not that big of a deal. It takes like a few days at most for simple term life. Can't speak to the other policies, which I understand are mostly tax vehicles anyway, but it's not hard to simply get a new life insurance policy if your current one goes kaput.

Marsymars

That’s a pretty bad deal if you’re 10 years into a 20-year term, and your rates were determined prior to a decade of inflation and new pre-existing conditions.

DavidPeiffer

You will be going through underwriting again, your new rate will be based on starting at an older age, and you'll have a new exclusion period begin (unless there are some provisions which prevent these in the event of a company failure). Hopefully you haven't had any significant health conditions present themselves since the original policy went into effect.

FabHK

... and the question was about the aggregate effect. What happens if all life insurers go bankrupt?

arn3n

Obesity is highly correlated with other medical conditions, from cancer to diabetes to heart disease. I wonder if there is a point at which it is cheaper for health insurance companies to offer subsidized or even free GLP-1s to patients than pay out for other specialized medications. For example, my insurance covers flu shots in my community every year because it's presumably less expensive to pay for the shots compared to the increased rate of hospitalization that the flu causes.

aqme28

You’re thinking too highly about the incentives of the US healthcare system. Since insurance is tied to your employer (and therefore changing every few years), and most people die on Medicare, there’s not much incentive for insurance companies to pay for preventative care that won’t actually help you for several decades.

ethbr1

That’s one reason the ACA shifted it to a mandatory (in most cases) category: https://www.healthcare.gov/preventive-care-adults/

Minimal, but minimal progress in the US was/is still progress.

helicalmix

hmm...doesn't this possibly incentivize ozempic subsidies even more?

If you know a "customer" of yours (an individual employee) is only going to be with you until they either change jobs or go on Medicare, then it seems the name of the game then is to make sure that nothing catastrophic happens to them until you can hand them off to someone else.

In which case, they should definitely go on ozempic. Even if the effects of ozempic immediately come off after usage, it's a short-term enough solution that benefits the insurance company, no?

vrc

Yes. For very high risk patients, payers do want this. I’ve even heard of some paying pharmacies $100/fill if done on time for select people.

The problem is, prediabetic and folks who may have crossed 7.0 A1C once, and just overweight folks with docs who are willing to play fast and loose are demanding it. Skipping metformin and other first line treatment options that are way cheaper. For those folks, complications might be the next guys problem.

Aurornis

> You’re thinking too highly about the incentives of the US healthcare system. Since insurance is tied to your employer (and therefore changing every few years)

Most people don’t change jobs or insurance companies every few years. When they do, it’s often within similar regions and industries so the chances of ending up right back under the same insurance company are significant.

Regardless, the issue is more complicated than your line of thinking. Insurance companies have very small profit margins. Current GLP-1 drugs are expensive, around $1,000 per month.

So each patient on GLP-1 drugs costs an extra $12K per year (roughly) or $120K per decade. That would have to offset a lot of other expenditures to break even from a pure cost perspective, which isn’t supported by the math. So the only alternative would be to raise everyone’s rates.

I know the insurance industry is the favorite target for explaining everything people dislike about healthcare right now, but at the end of the day they can’t conjure money out of nothing to cover everything at any cost demanded by drug makers. These drugs are super expensive and honestly it’s kind of amazing that so many people are getting them covered at all.

Jach

I don't think GLP-1s are particularly expensive, so my top preference would be to just see them easily available. While not quite the same, it's a win that Rogaine/Minoxidil were once prescription-only but for a long time now can be bought at any grocery store and taken to the self-checkout. Still, I think the subsidy approach has been done for smoking problems via nicotine products before, and e.g. nicotine gum cost never seemed that high to me (especially compared to cigarettes).

But it's also worth remembering the relative risks involved. Obesity isn't quite the ticking time bomb / public menace it's often made out to be... For smoking, you'll find studies with relative risk numbers for lung cancer over 5 for casual 1-4 times a day smokers, and the number quickly exceeds 20 for heavier smokers. In contrast, with obesity, the most severe relative risks for things like heart disease or diabetes you'll find topping out around 4 to 5 for the most obese, even then often under 3, with milder 1.1 to 2 for the bulk of obese people. (Here, ~31% of the US has BMIs between 30-40, and ~9% have BMIs over 40.) For other harms, like there was a study on dementia a few years back, you'll also find pretty mild (1.1ish) relative risks, but these end up being similar with other factors like "stress", "economic status", or "low educational attainment". Just some thought for people thinking about subsidizing or providing free stuff, the cost tradeoff with paying for other things later might not work out so neatly, and there's reason to not focus solely on obesity but also do the same sort of analysis with other factors and severity of a factor as well.

Aurornis

> I don't think GLP-1s are particularly expensive

On-patent GLP-1s (all of them right now) are actually extremely expensive. Right around $1000 per month.

I don’t want to discourage anyone who needs them from seeking treatment, but their discontinuation rate can be somewhat higher than you’d think from a life-changing drug because many people don’t like certain effects or even encounter side effects.

Weight loss drugs are also a challenging category for OTC because they’re a target of abuse. People with eating disorders and body dysmorphia already seek out black market GLP-1s at a high rate and it would be a difficult situation if they could pick them up impulsively from the medicine aisle. It’s also common for people to misuse OTC medications by taking very high doses hoping for faster results, which has to be considered.

There’s a libertarian-minded angle where people say “Who cares, that’s their own problem. Medications should be free for everyone to take.” I was persuaded by those arguments when I was younger, but now I have a very different perspective after hearing about the common and strange world of OTC medicine abuse from my friends in the medical field. Just ask your doctor friends if they think Tylenol should still be OTC if you want to hear some very sad stories.

terminalshort

People who want to misuse the medication are going to be the ones most willing and able to jump through the bureaucratic hoops. Increasing the difficulty to get the medication will only make it more difficult for legitimate users and won't decrease abuse. In 1920, 1970, and now, heroin was legal, illegal with minimal enforcement, and illegal with harsh enforcement (except in SF), and the same percentage of the population was addicted at each time.

Doctors' jobs are to deal with the cases that go wrong. These anecdotes have no relevance without actual data on how often these problems occur.

bananapub

> On-patent GLP-1s (all of them right now) are actually extremely expensive. Right around $1000 per month.

what does that mean? in the UK it's for sale from numerous national-chain pharmacies on a private prescription (ie the pharmacy is selling it commercially and customers are paying cash, no insurance and no state subsidy) for less than $US270/month. it seems unlikely to me that the pharmacies or the manufacturers are taking a loss on this, and the UK has at least as strict drug quality standards as the US.

sounds like the US monopoly-holders are just charging a lot more because they can, because the insurance system obfuscates prices and gives everyone involved cover to rip off patients?

fnord77

I pay about $40/month for mine, grey market from china

paulpauper

yeah this is true. When people say that obesity is worse than smoking, I'm like "Have you looked at the actual stats on this?"

massung

I don’t know if your topic switch was intentional - if so, my apologies and this is just for people outside the US who don’t know…

The article is about life insurance, which is very different from medical insurance.

Medical insurance companies often already go out of their way to pay early to save in the long run (e.g. free preventative care, checkups, etc.). I can’t speak to GLP-1s, but it’s possible that right now there are still active patents when used for obesity that make them crazy expensive for a few more years.

Life insurance is all about models and predictions about when you’re going to die. Any sudden change that massively impacts those models suck, because life insurers are basically gamblers with gobs of historical data they use to hedge their bets.

silotis

> Medical insurance companies often already go out of their way to pay early to save in the long run

Literally LOLed when I read this. Health insurance companies might pay lip service to this and make some token gestures like free preventative care, but in my experience health insurance companies frequently shoot themselves in the foot by denying care that later ends up costing them even more when the patient's untreated condition worsens.

terminalshort

Medical insurance in the US is not incentivized to save money. In fact it's just the opposite. The ACA requires that 80% of premiums be paid out to medical expenses. If an insurance company encourages people to get preventive care and lowers its expenses, that means they also have to lower premiums. So they actually want costs to be as high as possible since they get to keep 20%.

GLdRH

It's not a gamble, it's an application of the law of large numbers. But yes, changes in the underlying assumptions (e.g. mortality rates) can make the whole calculation untenable.

jameshart

We have no idea what the long tern actuarial numbers are of 30 year GLP-1 use though.

alvah

Well no, obviously not, but we do have 20 years of data, and aside from a still-tiny-but-slightly-elevated thyroid cancer risk, there’s really not much showing up in that data.

dragonwriter

> For example, my insurance covers flu shots in my community every year because it's presumably less expensive to pay for the shots compared to the increased rate of hospitalization that the flu causes.

In the US, insurance companies are generally legally mandated to cover ACIP recommended vaccines at no cost to the insured, which includes flu vaccines for everyone six months or older without contraindications.

michaelbuckbee

Add heart disease and blood pressure meds to the list of "we'd be better off as a group if more people took them as preventatives".

interestica

Fluoridated water? Nah. GLP water.

paulpauper

After it goes generic it will be cheaper. right now, it's not.

jtrn

Clinical psychologist here in Norway, and just my subjective experience: People stop GLP1 agonists for the following reasons, in descending order: - They want to enjoy eating again. - Medications are a hassle. - Worry about long-term effects, even if there is no alarming evidence for now. - Price (we are a spoiled/rich country). - Other (like hating needles, feeling bad for taking medications that others need more, being aggressively lazy).

Often, I think that it’s a bad move, as the clinical effect of losing around 20 kg would have to be matched by some extremely high frequency and severe side effects. Overweight is still not sufficiently appreciated for how dangerous it is, especially after they ramped up production so much that there isn't a real shortage anymore.

Ironically, most of the people who respond well to Ozempic and stay on it have few psychiatric problems. But those who almost desperately want to get off it after a while might be those who have a psychological component to their overeating. The obvious suspect then is eating as emotional regulation. So one could extrapolate, at least as a hypothesis, that the ones who have worse life expectancy due to regained weight after a year of usage are the ones who have a double set of problems stacked against them: overweight and emotional problems. That would have a huge effect on longevity.

This is PURE free association though, no deep analysis behind it.

OptionOfT

Did you see a decrease in people gambling / drinking when on the medication?

N=1, I'm on ZepBound and in general my brain is less likely to give in to things that give instant satisfaction.

jtrn

Actually yes. Not as much as with ADHD medication, but obvious subset of addictive personalities that have relief from addictive behaviors (beyond eating addiction) with semiglutide.

k__

How much does it cost right now?

Are there any alternatives coming out soon or generics?

jtrn

For semaglutide, the newest and most potent GLP1.

United States: The main patent is expected to expire around 2032. Monthly Price: $950 - $1,350+ (cash price without insurance)

Norway: The main patent is expected to expire around 2031. Monthly Price: $109 - $301 (cash price equivalent in USD)

thatnerdyguy

I'll note that in the US that 1000+ is the "list price". For those paying out of pocket, both zepbound and wegovy offer coupons available to anyone taking it down to $500 (and I'll note that discounted price keeps coming down, slowly, as well)

chhxdjsj

Grey market from China is around $250/year for tirzepatide

There are group chats with tens of thousands of people and I havent seen any issues with the drug

romaaeterna

The problem (not new with GLP-1s) is that people lose weight, get life insurance, and then regain.

The biggest part of that equation is regain part. Most people quit GLP-1s because of costs. Let's fix that.

cm2187

I don't know, I tend to notice the effect wears off over time. Not sure it's a good idea to consume it permanently. Perhaps a better use would be for short periods to course correct.

rrrrrrrrrrrryan

According to all the studies, this is absolutely the worst thing that you can do. GLP-1s are revolutionary, but when you go on them, you should intend to stay on them for life. When patients first go on them, they lose both muscle and fat, and when they go off them, they regain just fat, and in many cases they're in a worse situation than they would be if they hadn't gone on them in the first place.

Letting your weight fluctuate up and down in giant swings is, in many ways, harder on the body than just staying at a steady weight, even if it's overweight.

nwienert

This is nearly perfectly wrong.

There’s nothing in these drugs that makes you lose more muscle than fat, you don’t lose any more muscle than if you do a regular diet, not even slightly.

Second, the drugs don’t do anything to cause you to gain back mostly fat, and people going off them have more success, not less, than your average person who loses weight rapidly whether through diet or other means.

The average person who is 50lbs overweight because they gained 5lbs a year for a decade will lose all of that weight within 6 months with nearly entirely positive side effects, and if they stop taking it, will regain a bit less than they did before, meaning it would take another decade to get back to where they were. That is unequivocally a huge net positive.

It’s not like Testosterone which does have dramatic negative effects when taken long term and can cause dependency.

It also happens to be extremely effective at reducing bad habits, and yes those habit changes persist after quitting - not perfectly, but surprisingly so. This even works for smoking, drinking, and gambling.

alvah

GLP-1 definitely doesn’t prevent you increasing your percentage of total calories from protein, and doing regular resistance exercise. That was the advice from my doctor, and while I’m only 2 months in, weekly scans have not yet shown any significant decrease in lean mass. I don’t see any reason why they would, as long as I continue eating protein and lifting heavy things.

cjbgkagh

I’ve been on it for years, at a lower dose though, the counter action by the body is probably dose dependent so my theory is lower for longer is more sustainable. I think people get attached to the rapid weight loss, coupled with the high expensive, incentivizes higher doses. I take gray market supply and it’s rather cheap.

Also it should be mostly used as an adjunct to strict diet and exercise.

romaaeterna

Anecdotally, the dose required to maintain a stable weight seems to be lower than the dose required to lose weight. Most people tend to regain some weight when going cold turkey.

The safety profile of the drugs with diabetics, and the health benefits that come from the associated weight loss may make permanent use a net benefit for most people. There appears to be little, if any, "course correction" effect from taking it for short periods of time.

cm2187

It depends how you define "short period of time". When I started, I lost 40kg in a matter of 5 months. Is that short? If you develop a tolerance to the product, then it doesn't protect you long term from gaining back weight, combined with you losing the option to do a rapid descent.

I am not saying that those variations are great from a health point of view, but they are certainly not as bad as staying obese.

jstummbillig

Can you explain what you mean? What you say seems to strictly contradict how the meds are supposed to work.

firesteelrain

People find they need to increase to higher tolerable doses to ensure their hunger is satiated. But also, you need to increase your protein and fiber intake to maintain that satiation. I tried going up to 10mg and I had such a sick feeling. 5mg I could tolerate. Some people are up 15mg.

arp242

Are the long-term (>20 years) effects of taking GLP-1s really all that well understood? Because that's kind of what you're suggesting here.

Making millions of people dependent on a drug to maintain basic health does not strike me as the best of ideas regardless. I understand why it's a good idea for many from an individual perspective and I'm not judging anyone, but from a societal perspective it does not seem like a reasonable solution.

Spivak

Why not? We have an overweight and obesity epidemic that has persisted through everything else we've gotten enough political capital to try thus far. The "miracle" drug is the most promising direction we've had in a long time. Whatever possible adverse long term effects have to be (plausibility they actually happen) x (harm they cause) > known harms of being overweight.

The scale of the solution is allowed to match the scale of the problem which is on the order of 2/3 of adults or 200,000,000 people.

arp242

Well, don't say you weren't warned when it turns out the miracle is not such a miracle after all and it all massively backfires in a few decades, at which point you're still going to have to actually fix the real underlying causes.

beepbopboopp

Get ready for health/weight based credit scores, Its probably a genuinely good idea.

msgodel

"Measuring" people for the sake of insurance just sounds hard. Partly because people are complex but also because people just hate being measured.

paulpauper

I think they quit also because they see it is working and no longer feel like they need to use it

apwell23

i have hard time believing ppl go through all that only to sign up for cheap life insurance.

firesteelrain

I was on Mounjaro for two months. I was also dieting and walking 10k steps a day. I lost 25 lb and my A1C went down to 5.0 from 5.7. All my cholesterol numbers were in range. I stopped taking it and lost 25 more. I haven’t regained the weight. People who gain it back did not learn the lesson and did not effectively change their habits. You need the discipline - and a good support system. But if you don’t have that and continue old habits then you will gain weight back. The original problem isn’t solved.

nerevarthelame

This is akin to saying a severely anxious person should be able to take an SSRI for a few months, learn how to change their thinking, and stay off antidepressants for the rest of their life. So simple. Must be their fault if they can't pull it off.

Perhaps that works for some people. I'm glad it seems to have worked for you. But the facts of the world we live in show that it doesn't work for most. "Learn the lesson and be disciplined!" is not effective advice.

treyd

That is the ideal model for treatment of those types of mental health disorders. Often patients have blockers that prevent them from resolving underlying issues. But through a drug they can get into a headspace that allows them to work through them with talk therapy, and then learn new habits and eventually go off the drug.

In practice, this doesn't happen that often, no, but it's a theoretical goal. Probably because we're in the pre-GLP-1 era with regard to mental health meds. Maybe that will change.

firesteelrain

The analogy to your example is that someone who has to take Mounjaro for diabetes will always have to take it even after losing say 100 pounds. Or Metaformin even.

GLP-1 in those cases helps manage the problem better.

But for those who are not in those cases where Type 2 Diabetes has sunk in, then they need to use the opportunity to get better while on it and kick themselves into high gear or they will have learned nothing from the experience

make3

I feel like your example shows the inverse of what you want. SSRI are actually great at helping the person develop healthy mechanisms (compared to GLP-1s), because they reduce the mood swings & negative thoughts, allowing the person to be more productive & be more involved in their therapy, in reading, journaling, doing sports, etc. It's just that it might take two or three years and not months, which is fine because SSRI also have much more limited side effects compared to GLP-1s.

GLP-1s don't do that directly.. but at least they might help people move more, and give them confidence to do more for their health instead of seeing it as a lost cause.

arp242

I lost almost 15 kg (~33 lbs) over the last two months and I didn't even try that hard. I never had problems with my weight, but over the last few years it slowly crept up to ~107kg (at ~1.95cm), at which point I realised I had to do something. Reasonably sure I could do a The Machinist Christian Bale if I wanted to.

I also quit smoking with relatively little effort twice (once in my early 20s, and then again a few years ago after I picked up smoking again during COVID). It wasn't easy-easy, but if I hear the struggles some other people go through, it was relatively easy.

Some people are just wired different. I have plenty of other issues, but on this sort of thing, for whatever reason I seem to be lucky.

jstummbillig

> People who gain it back did not learn the lesson

Considering it took you a miracle drug to learn the lesson, that seems like a humorously arrogant take.

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furyofantares

How long ago was this?

firesteelrain

I started in Aug 2024 and stopped in Oct 2024. I paid for it from one of the pharmacies that made it in Florida. I injected myself with insulin needles that they send you.

furyofantares

I've seen so many reports of people losing weight one way or another, and saying they kept it off, and I think only once has it been more than a year. Usually under 6 months.

Personally I lost a ton of weight doing full-on keto (I specify, because some people just kinda cut out carbs) and then kept it off for over 2 years. But I put the weight back on after that, albeit slowly (over the course of maybe 7 years).

I've also done Mounjaro, and I can keep it off a while after I go off it, but not that long.

YES, you have to change your habits, maybe lifestyle, maybe deal with other issues in order to keep it off. But I think, not only is that difficult, it's not a "you did it and you're done" deal. It's easy to slip backwards, and I won't make any claims about you personally, but for anyone who's kept it off for less than a year, I think the good money would be on it coming back within another year. I doubt someone is "out of the woods" even two years on.

consp

Depends on your ultimate high's. That's a pretty good indication of diabetes (any form).

I've had pretty good hb1ac's when my blood sugar's were all over the place and in no way healthy.

apwell23

suprised your a1c was only 5.7 despite being obese .

firesteelrain

From what I understand you don’t have to be obese and have type 2 diabetes. In my case, I was obese and did not have diabetes but I might have been going down that road

petesergeant

> People who gain it back did not learn the lesson and did not effectively change their habits. You need the discipline

This is deeply misguided. I’m glad that the little assist was enough for you, but if “healthy habits” were enough then people who’d lost weight the traditional way would keep it off.

Further, unless you’ve been off it for more than six months, I’d hold your judgement on this one.

firesteelrain

I have been off since Oct 2024. Also, I did continue to lose weight the traditional way.

After I stopped, a coworker told me about Vida which my work offers as a health benefit.

Using the Vida service where I got a registered dietician to show me what to eat, I tracked my food and water intake and tracked my exercise. I had protein and fiber goals to hit.

You can’t do it all on the medicine - it is a lifestyle change. The medicine was the catalyst but not the reason I kept the weight off. I wanted it. But because I wanted it, I wanted to use the support system that my work paid for.

I think there is a lesson to be learned here

vkazanov

I know some serious cases where there were non-habitual problems but... "healthy habits" is nothing to laugh about. People literally are what their habits are. All of our behaviour is habits, and changing behaviour takes time and effort.

The good news is that it is not impossible, and it really is possible to change bit by bit for most people suffering from obesity.

I don't think somebody who walks 10k+ a day, maybe goes to gym a couple of time a week, limits calorie intake to a comfortable and reasonable 2000 kcal per day, would suddenly bounce back to 130kg!

mschuster91

> but if “healthy habits” were enough then people who’d lost weight the traditional way would keep it off.

That's because a lot of the "traditional way" methods are pseudoscience at best, outright quackery that's going to send you into serious malnutrition issues or eating disorders at worst. Every two or three months you see a new diet fad pushed through the yellow press rags, and none of it anywhere near being considered scientifically valid - usually it's some VIP shilling some crap story to explain how they lost weight, of course without telling the people that they have the time for training and the money to pay for proper food, 1:1 training and bloodwork analysis.

GLdRH

I would have thought the "traditional way" would simply be eat less, move more (by changing your habits of course).

Sparkle-san

Giving people the magic cheat code drug seems antithetical to helping them develop the habits and discipline for long term lifestyle change.

jchw

A lesson often learned painfully: in most cases there isn't a reward for doing things the hard way. You could argue that a magic weight loss drug will prevent people from making important lifestyle changes, but all else equal, a magic drug that helps you lose weight with seemingly no other downsides is an obvious net win for health. Losing weight once you put pounds on is hard, for both mental and physical reasons, and even just being able to lose weight is probably a huge help as it puts in reach what many consider to be intangible after years of failure.

I haven't tried a GLP-1 agonist myself because I'm not exactly severely overweight, but I do absolutely struggle to keep weight off. It's amazing how easy it is to re-gain weight and how hard it is to keep it off. If the worst side-effect of GLP-1 agonists is that it makes life insurance quotes harder, whatever; I think it's totally acceptable that some people will still struggle with improving their habits, I don't think it's likely to make it any worse. In my opinion I suspect it is likely to make it a bit better, by helping you break out of the cycle.

P.S.: since there is some neighboring discourse about whether being fat is a disease or a lifestyle choice, I'll just say this: I don't personally think it matters. I don't think arguing this distinction will actually help anyone. I don't really care for body positivity and I don't make excuses for my poor habits or being overweight, but I still don't think it makes losing weight much easier.

44520297

Why is obesity the only disease that taking medicine for is “cheating”? Which is more important: instilling your particular version of “discipline” into people, or saving billions in healthcare costs and millions of lives from suffering?

Sparkle-san

Cheat code was probably not the best term for it, I'll admit. I don't fault anyone for chosing to try GLP-1s and the cause of obeseity isn't particularly on the individual given the prevailance of ultra processed foods and car transportation in our society. That all being said, regaining most, if not all, the weight has been a historical issue around weight loss treatments because they're not durable. The way we're proceeding with GLP-1s feels short-sighted and potentially unethical if we're setting people up for rebound failure to line the pockets of big pharma.

bryant

People grew up making fun of others for being overweight. Suddenly a medication making it treatable (and possibly providing an explanation for why the prevalence of obesity skyrockets in developed countries) validates the idea that it's a medical condition.

Relatedly: it validates that people are assholes for making fun of others who are overweight. And not many people like feeling like an asshole.

Edit: starlevel004 is right.

Group_B

It’s usually a self inflicted disease. Your own actions cause it most of the time

kbelder

It's not. I'd put most addictions in that category. And instilling discipline in people is a good thing that benefits them in myriad ways.

mikhailt

That's a great idea!

Can you show me what we're doing in USA to help children and people develop the habits and discipline for long term lifestyle change?

Because I've never learned anything about nutrition, macros, high sugar content and all of the healthy food I should learn to eat on my own.

We did not have home classes in any of my education in US at all, they were a thing in the past but that wasn't a thing in my middle hs or hs or college at all in NY in 90s/2000s.

All of my bad habits were from my parents and they were not good eaters.

firesteelrain

Yep, that’s key. That’s the lesson I learned as I commented above as GP.

My work offered me five visits with a dietician and then I got a health coach and a nurse all paid for and monitoring me on the side through the Vida service. Not everyone has that

arp242

Depends on your circumstances. If you're a bit overweight and want to lose weight: it's perhaps not helpful. If you're obese and everything just seems hopeless: fuck it – do anything that will bring your weight down to a manageable level first, and then start working on habit and lifestyle changes. Energy levels, the motivation of seeing progress, and that type of thing are hugely important.

DrillShopper

I'd be okay with that so long as nobody can have Nicorette, the birth control pill, or Viagra. I don't have a problem refraining from smoking, I've never gotten pregnant, and my dick works, so it must be some innate discipline in me that others must learn, so no meds for them.

See how ridiculous that sounds?

pfdietz

Giving people the magic antibiotic cheat code seems antithetical to helping them develop habits and discipline to avoid bacterial infection.

saturneria

You could apply this same stupid logic to many medications.

Blood pressure medication comes to mind.

padjo

People have to believe in free will or they go crazy. Admitting that we’re just a bag of hormones and electric signals means our whole system of morality is built on sand and that’s a scary door to open.

wjnc

The article is missing some key points about insurance. An ideal book balances mortality and longevity risks. This cancels out the risk GLP-1s or many other actuarial shifts in mortality. Insurers swap risks, reinsure risks etc to move towards an ideal book. Nice products to balance are pensions and longevity. Problem is that the scale is quite different on a per policy basis, and also very location specific.

The article also misses regarding slippage is that Swiss Re in the link calls it a modest increase And that is mainly due to insurers Not performing the same level of medical intake (accelerated versus full underwriting). Increased competition leads to less profits. That’s pretty straightforward and not per se GLP-1s related.

And then the kicker. For not diversified portfolios of mortality risks. Those have been massively profitable for decades, in line with the general increase in age and health. GLP-1s just expands on that profitable aspect. Did I mention that the long term expected rate of return on an insurers book is quite good?

Insurers can weather a bit of slippage. Reinsurers will kick the worst offenders back in line with their AUC performance, because without diversification Or reinsurance it’s hard to stay in the market. (Capital requirements strongly favor diversification. Mono line is very hard.) That’s why Swiss Re is bringing out such rigorous studies of detailed policy events. Signaling to the reinsurance markets and the insurance companies and their actuaries!

brap

Just want to share my own experience since were doing it:

Took Wegovy (Semaglutide) for about 6 months. Barely lost any weight, would occasionally get nauseous.

Then the doc switched me to Mounjaro (Tirzepatide) + Phentermine, and holy shit, I just don’t feel like eating, almost ever. Lost 20kg in 6 months, which is all I needed to lose, never had any side effects. None.

I did feel a little weird/buzzed the first time I took Phentermine, but it went away the next day.

I feel like for many people it’s not really the physical hunger that makes them fat, it’s that annoying voice in your head telling you to snack something for no reason at all. It sometimes felt almost like drug addiction.

Tirz+Phent are great for that.

stego-tech

Now expand this to other treatments: HIV, PreP, depression/anxiety, ADD, ADHD, you name it. We’ve had data for decades that adherence is the key factor in successfully lowering mortality and increasing quality of life, which in turn increases duration of productive life, which in turn lowers costs in the long run as more people live healthier, longer, more productive lives.

The problem continues to be the pharmaceutical and health insurance industries, particularly in the West. Under pressure to deliver infinite growth forever to shareholders on a quarterly basis, companies have a vested interest in making less medication at a higher price, and lobbying the government to prohibit price negotiations while mandating insurance coverage for many of these drugs.

GLP-1s might be the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back, but there’s decades of research - and bodies - saying this over, and over, and over again.

Which reminds me: I need to call my new health insurance company to get them to cover my medication, and hopefully extend it to 90 day supplies. Because god forbid that just be an automatic thing for someone who’s taken the same medication daily in some form for a decade without adherence issues.

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jeremynixon

This blog post is flawed. "Life insurers can predict when you'll die with about 98% accuracy." Is not even properly framed and is found nowhere in the cited report.

Predictions of when you will die need a range in order to be attached to a number like accuracy. The attached report is not about this but about population-level mortality trends.

dzhiurgis

Yeah was skimming that report too and it doesn't look even related to that claim.

vslira

I've always felt that there's some trade to be done here, with life and health insurers basically giving glp-1 et all for free bc they lower the cost of everything else

edit: and then Big Annuity lobbying to oppose this

lesam

Aren’t “Big Life Insurance” and “Big Annuity” pretty much the same companies?

hiAndrewQuinn

They are, they're basically mathematical inverses of the same product.

Big Annuity can charge you more, in fact, if it has reason to believe you're going to live unusually long, so playing the GLP-1 dance with them would only be profitable in reverse. Pretend to be the unhealthiest person on the planet, lock in an annuity, then get on the drip stat.

toomuchtodo

It sounds like aligning incentives here is requiring the weight stay off for the policy to remain in effect with an annual physical for monitoring, similar to what employers require for health insurance premium reductions. Point in time underwriting is suboptimal considering current state of the art of GLP-1s (unless newer protocols that can update metabolic profiles are delivered soon).

prasadjoglekar

Or life insurers paying for ongoing GLP-1s instead of potentially the health insurer.

But to your broader point, at least in the US, incentive mis-alignment on all healthcare and health insurance is possibly irredeemably broken.

toomuchtodo

Nailed my broader point. Could we go through contortions to see who is going to pay unreasonable costs for GLP-1s (health insurance, life insurance)? We could, but that's silly accounting to see who still gets to make the profit and who has to end up with the bill for empowering the human to fix their reward center. The shortcut is to provide GLP-1s to everyone who needs them at scale, as inexpensively as possible (to pull forward the improvement in health and quality of life outcomes until improved protocols arrive). The semaglutide patent is about to expire in Canada, China, India, and Brazil, for example.

https://www.labiotech.eu/in-depth/novo-nordisk-semaglutide-p...