Officials Concede They Don't Know the Fate of Iran's Uranium Stockpile
99 comments
·June 23, 2025cypherpunks01
Someone should really investigate what happened to the 15-year Iran nuclear agreement that set limits on stockpile size and enrichment levels, and allowed international inspector verification.
deepsun
I remember the fate of Iraq's WMD (chemical) -- they denied inspectors, blatantly lied on the reports for many years. It was all way too suspicious, but their biggest trick was that when UN approved a military intervention, no WMDs were actually found. That put US in a very bad position because they couldn't prove WMDs existense. Who knows, maybe there were really no WMDs (or just hidden well).
However, unlike chemical substances, radiation is easily detectable even in minuscule quantities. Just transporting radioactive materials leave a detectable trace, so I bet they won't be lost for long. The only way to actually hide them is to contaminate the whole area with the same materials.
TiredOfLife
You mean the one Iran was constantly breaking and refusing access to inspectors?
jraby3
I really thought Iran was breaking the deal too. Just did a google search and found articles from politico and AP fact checking and it seemed that Iran was complying with the deal.
Do you have any links or relevant sources to show that they weren't?
1234letshaveatw
Sounds like the picture is getting clearer now https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/06/23/us-iran-nuclear-fordo-mu...
techpineapple
Our intelligence didn't know that Iran was trying to build a Nuclear Bomb, so we had to do this attack, but now our intelligence definetly knows:
'They are claiming that they moved some material," Mullin said, referring to Israel and Iran, respectively. "Our intelligence report says they didn't," the Oklahoma Republican said in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
croes
Moving it would have exposed it as an easy target
adonovan
"We have the ability to destroy things that people think were undestroyable. And so we think we did a really good job."
Truest thing ever said by a Trump spokesmodel!
adfm
Isn’t the American Congress responsible for declaring war on other countries? This brings up the uncomfortable discussion of how to correct CEO overreach and insure accountability. Where does the buck stop when it’s passed around like a hot potato?
reverendsteveii
Every president you've lived under has sent Americans to kill and die in other countries, either with or without congressional oversight. Usually without. For reference, neither Korea nor Vietnam were ever declared wars by congress. For Vietnam Congress authorized LBJ to take "all necessary measures to repel any armed attack against the forces of the United States". Korea was never a war, and instead was undertaken solely at POTUS's discretion as a "police action" in response to a UN resolution and while Congress did support the effort to procure money and blood to spend in Korea, they never formally authorized any sort of aggression in Korea.
nozzlegear
The president has broad authority to take military action without the requisite congressional authorization for up to 60 days (plus another 30 to allow for withdrawal of troops). It's been this way since the War Powers Act of 1973.
SEJeff
And this was formally updated post 9/11 with the AUMF (Acceptable Use of Military Force) which gave the president quite sweeping powers without direct congressional approval. The caveat is that the AUMF is only for 9/11 responsible countries or affiliates. Given 9/11 was Al Qaeda and they are Sunni, and that Iran is Shia, they are not actually related since they want to also kill each other. Still, these powers are being bastardizes to limit the authority of congress.
https://www.congress.gov/107/plaws/publ40/PLAW-107publ40.pdf
adolph
The AUMF was an addition to WP so Iran's lack of support for AQ doesn't limit normal WP operations. Additionally sectarian concerns are more malleable than presented. As an example review Iran's long-standing support for Hamas which is Sunni-affiliated.
—Consistent with section 8(a)(1) of the War Powers Resolution, the Congress
declares that this section is intended to constitute specific statutory
authorization within the meaning of section 5(b) of the War Powers
Resolution.
the_snooze
Congress has largely abdicated a lot of its powers to the President and (to a lesser extent) the Supreme Court.
Working together to solve problems makes you a target to primary voters back at home (i.e., the most hardcore people in your party), so the incentive to to do nothing and enjoy the perks as long as you can.
rhcom2
USA hasn't formally declared war since 1942. The Executive just continues to expand its power.
msgodel
I assumed Vietnam and Korea were officially declared but after looking it up I see they weren't.
It's kind of crazy they even managed to draft people without congress approving it. The world wars really did kill the old American system of government.
nozzlegear
> USA hasn't formally declared war since 1942.
That's true but misleading. Congress has consistently authorized military action in almost¹ all of the extended wars and conflicts the US has been involved in after 1942. It's not like those presidents have ignored Congress and not sought congressional approval.
¹ Weasel word: I'm sure I've missed some but the big one I can think of is Libya during the Obama years, which didn't have congressional approval and wasn't a declaration of war either.
rhcom2
That is certainly true, but often *after* the President has acted has Congress authorized action.
righthand
It’s not misleading.
War is impossible for Congress to disapprove. You cannot pretend that option is even on the table when a Potus has expanded power to push the country into a war; how can congress disapprove an ongoing conflict in a country that prides itself on using military force?
null
daft_pink
Article II of the constititution grants the president broad authority to direct military operations, deploy troops, conduct military strikes and respond to threats to national security.
Carter deployed troops to Iran without congressional approval, Reagan deployed troops or air strikes to Grenada, Libya and Lebanon without congressional approval. George HW Bush deployed troops to Panama and Somalia without congressional authorization using executive authority and broad interpretations of the 2001 AUMF. Clinton intervened in Haiti, bombed Bosnia and Kosovo, and performed air stikes in Sudan and Afghanistan. George W Bush conducted strikes in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen without congressional approval. Obama used troops or Airstrikes in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, Somalia and Pakistan and notably sent US troops into Pakistan to apprehend Osama, a sovereing country without congressional authorization. Trump hit Syria and conducted strikes in Iraq against Iran without authorization. Biden conducted strikes in Syria and Iraq and assisted Ukraine in many ways although supposedly not through direct military involvement without congressional authorization.
I’m not sure why there is a sudden argument over whether Trump should be hamstrung, delay opportunities and eliminate surprise completely by having a congressional debate over acts of war that are not declarations of war that have been performed by virtually every president in modern history. It’s just not how the US Government works and Trumps actions in this case are completely in alignment with our norms.
norlzett
Maybe it's not a war, it's a special operation.
null
ioa8w35l8aw
In October, my family in texas was raving about how trump was going to end the Ukraine war overnight. They stopped talking about it the day trump retook office. And the other day they stopped talking about peace entirely and started raving about how Iran has had it coming and a little bit of war is good for the economy. They did the exact same thing in 2002.
afroboy
Because they never seen war comes to their mainland. They think it just game to kill millions of people and torture and rape others while they're sleeping in their houses in peace.
Hilift
Why end it? Ukraine is the most successful proxy war in the history of war. Ukraine has destroyed much of Russian ground forces and armor, and eliminated the only advantage that Russia did have, which was artillery. Now artillery accounts for only 20% of casualties on the battlefield. Even if the war ended today, Russia will not receive any of their funds frozen in Europe for decades, if ever. Russia has no military or technology advantage, and no way to rebuild it. Europe is safer than it ever has been.
ImJamal
> Why end it?
Because it is resulting in the deaths of hundreds of thousands Ukrainians?
It is easy to tell other people to go die for you.
FirmwareBurner
>Because it is resulting in the deaths of hundreds of thousands Ukrainians?
Genuine question: Why do you think politicians in US and EU care about that?
AnimalMuppet
Yeah? It's easy to tell other people to just let their country get overrun, too.
Ukrainians do not want to be owned by Russia. Ukraine is being invaded by Russia. Why end it, if "ending it" means Ukraine gets taken over by Russia, and the people of Ukraine do not want that?
lawn
It always hurts when people close to you get caught up in cults.
init2null
I was in a new world order survival cult as a kid, and it destroyed any semblance of connection I felt with others. Why connect when they're going to the camps?
Everything I've seen for the last ten years or so feels familiar. That very cult got a little watered down and has consumed the politics of the nation.
cypherpunks01
"Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, shortly after I win the presidency, I will have the horrible war between Russia and Ukraine settled," Trump told a National Guard Conference. "I’ll get it settled very fast. I don’t want you guys going over there."
msgodel
[flagged]
sherburt3
We should ask the Iranian government, they might know.
mensetmanusman
I wonder if they use comsol to model destroying mountains.
IAmBroom
Officials Concede They Don't Know The Unknowable
tantalor
Oh it's certainly knowable. It's a known unknown.
You could imagine all sorts of ways we could find out, from detectors to informants.
mensetmanusman
Like traveling inside the plasma of a sun is knowable but difficult.
lostmsu
Difficult is exactly the right term here. Neutrinos do it all the time, we just need to catch them. First done in 1998 according to light googling.
bawolff
As long as its only 60% enriched, it probably doesn't matter much as long as the enrichment facility was taken out so they can't process it further.
zzzeek
first page of Sun Tzu, "Don't Tweet To The World that You're About to Attack"
kayodelycaon
When you have total dominance over an opponent, you don’t need the rules of war.
What you need is someone who understands politics.
We have forgotten the advice of the great Theodore Roosevelt: “Speak softly and carry a big stick”. There is no stick bigger than the US military and it’s been shoved up our own ass by our politicians.
thatguy0900
The world of warfare sun tzu planned for is pretty different. Now the real war for western nations is maintaining public support for the war, not actually winning the war. Dropping fliers and tweets that you are about to bomb the area before you drop the bombs is pretty common
daft_pink
Pretty sure that many governments around the world have pretty advanced monitoring equipment capable of tracking the movements of nuclear material. Just sayin’.
I’m sure they aren’t telegraphing capabilities, but aren’t monitoring devices trained on iran nuclear sites that have been in place for decades.
The intelligence value alone of knowing where materials are going would be so valuable that this has to be in place.
15155
Surveillance UAVs exist, loiter indefinitely, and Israel has declared air superiority from the beginning.
phreeza
What kind of monitoring are you thinking? Uranium is primarily an alpha emitter, and as such very easy to shield. I don't think it could be tracked from a distance.
ceejayoz
We had cameras and other devices installed under the old nuclear deal.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/iran-remo...
> It appeared Iran intended to remove the bulk of the cameras and other monitoring gear installed as part of the 2015 nuclear agreement between Tehran and world powers, according to Grossi. Without cameras in place, Iran could divert centrifuges used for uranium enrichment to other unknown locations, he said.
cameldrv
Maybe antineutrinos. There has been a fair bit of work on detectors in the past couple of decades.
ceejayoz
Trump canceled the deal that included monitoring. The Iranians, as you’d expect, disabled those in response.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_...
IAmGraydon
I don't think you understand how small 400 kilos of U235 is. It's a cube about 11 inches on each side. That would be very difficult to track, specially in a shielded container.
bananapub
man, I wonder if putting the dumbest, laziest and most selfish fucking people in America in charge of America might have any negative consequences for anyone.
For reference, 400 kg of Uranium amounts to 21 liters, or a little over 5 gallons