Alberta separatism push roils Canada
333 comments
·May 23, 2025Tiktaalik
Alberta on as its own independent state would be net worse off in that they'd be a landlocked state and this would not at all directly advance their goals of getting more of their oil product to tidewater, one of their main political grievances. British Columbia would still oppose further oil pipelines to its coast for the same reasons it has always opposed them and in fact it would become politically easier for Canada to deny such access.
So the only viable outcome really is American annexation. (Additionally not advancing the Albertan grievance of only selling oil to one customer...)
nickff
Quebec also would have been worse off as an independent state, but threatening sovereignty gave (and continues to give) them important bargaining leverage. Additionally, Alberta has long-standing grievances, and ignoring those in favor of a strictly economic analysis is quite... limiting. Albertan sovereignty advocates might also argue that Canada has more to lose in Alberta than it ever did in the case of Quebec.
Tiktaalik
Quebec would be worse off independent of Canada absolutely, but having access to the ocean not landlocked and remarkably more viable as an independent state.
There are other landlocked countries throughout the world so it's not like it's impossible, but Alberta would be creating an uphill to climb.
Bottom line is that none of Alberta's longstanding limited market oil pipeline grievances are solved by becoming a landlocked independent state.
JumpCrisscross
> having access to the ocean not landlocked and remarkably more viable as an independent state
And a natural foreign ally.
drewcoo
> Quebec would be worse off independent of Canada absolutely
Writes someone in English. I don't think everyone would agree.
jszymborski
There are different degrees of "worse off", however. Quebec is a major port city, while Alberta is sandwiched between BC, Saskatchewan, Montana, and the North West Territories.
abdullahkhalids
They have US border on the South. If they were independent, they can strike a deal with the US for their oil pipeline, without Ottawa blocking them.
MeIam
So you believe threatening to separate is a strategy and that they get more by making threats.
Alberta has oil majority of it foreign owed and wants free pipelines paid by the rest of Canada as subsidy and they got one for free and they believe they get more for free...
kjkjadksj
Except of course the elephant in the room for why that is. You know, an entire population at odds with the Canadian government for trying to do to quebec and their culture what the American government successfully did to native americans and their culture. You don’t really have that unified us vs them mentality in english speaking canada.
mistrial9
I dont know anything about quebec but honestly this statement is so one-sided that it translates to "noise" and "rage bait" level
hodder
Total nonsense. Political separation doesn't undue physical oil infrastructure. Crude would continue to flow as is, and trade deals would immediately be struck. Meanwhile, incremental pipeline capacity south would be rapidly approved while existing East/West expansion is hopeless under a Liberal government.
I am a physical oil trader and I buy 200,000 barrels of oil a day to supply refineries in Canada. I have also worked on financing for Energy East, Keystone XL, Northern Gateway, TMX and the Line 9 reversal in my career. Trust me when I say the Canadian government is the problem and Alberta would be MUCH better off from an oil perspective split off of Canada.
ChoGGi
Doesn't all of Northern Alberta fall under Treaty 8? Going to be interesting if we separate from the rest of Canada.
apercu
No personal financial bias at all?
MeIam
Your trade deals are a flash in history. Native Aboriginal Canadians do not owe anything to oil traders south of the border. You can't force them join your ghettos.
Tiktaalik
What is the nonsense part? What advantages does Alberta gain from separation vis a vis pipelines? They’re never going to get more oil to the pacific in either case. Separating weakens their hand in negotiating gas pipelines to the pacific. No one currently cares if Alberta builds more pipelines to the USA. There is no hindrance here. So what does Alberta gain?
Not to mention all the other things Alberta loses. BC the popular vacation and retirement spot, and like Spain to the British would be closed off to Albertans with their holiday homes now under foreign buyer and speculation taxation.
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nostrademons
We just need to redraw the US/Canada border:
https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/enwwwm/map_of_the_...
(Probably with Colorado + NM as a little USC exclave now, and maybe with Saskatchewan joining Alberta as part of Trumpland.)
landl0rd
Given that existing pipelines are already overcommitted or at capacity and carry not much more than a tenth, and given that America is mostly the only option for refining the heavy sour tarry crap they pull out of the athabasca sands, this doesn't matter much. This is what came up during trump's threats about tariffing oil. They basically would have had to eat the cost unlike most of the other tariffs trump has proposed.
Regardless, let's say two places have very different values and ideas about how they want to live and what goals to pursue. What the hell gives one place the right, particularly when it consistently votes down the desired values of the other, to prevent it from leaving and going its own way? Self-determination as a principle isn't magically restricted to national borders only. That would be a ridiculous assertion.
SketchySeaBeast
> What the hell gives one place the right, particularly when it consistently votes down the desired values of the other, to prevent it from leaving and going its own way? Self-determination as a principle isn't magically restricted to national borders only. That would be a ridiculous assertion.
How granular does this asserted right go? Should Edmonton be able to secede from Alberta? Can I run outside and put up a flag on my front lawn?
potato3732842
>How granular does this asserted right go? Should Edmonton be able to secede from Alberta?
Yes
>Can I run outside and put up a flag on my front lawn?
Yes, but the overhead burden of running a municipality even if it only has a population of 1 would likely quickly make you reconsider
landl0rd
It goes pretty granular. I don't really like secession in concept, in this case it's a manifestation that governments like to steal more power than they absolutely must hold at that level instead of leaving it at lower ones. This gives someone in BC a hell of a lot too much influence on how someone in Alberta lives and vice-versa when really not much besides border, military, and treaties/diplomacy needs to be handled nationally. Things should be made as local as possible. I would prefer municipal or neighborhood-level decision making for a lot of things because it's actually really hard to scale democracy well and because the losing minority grows as you make decisions at higher levels.
There are practical limits to this principle, very hard for a landlocked city to secede, but at least in principle it seems morally correct if not practically possible. But I struggle to see how someone can conceivably oppose colonialism and also oppose secession.
Tiktaalik
On the second point it should be noted that the awful FPTP system creates the regional distortions that make it appear that the regions are more divided than they really are. One looks on the map and it seems like Alberta is near uniform blue but that's because of FPTP. The reality is that ~64% voted one way and a sizeable amount of Alberta voted in opposition.
If we fixed our voting system to be more truly representative I think some of these divisions would go away.
senderista
See also: California
fatbird
When Quebec held a referendum in 1995 on separation (not secession), the Cree nation in northern Quebec held its own referendum on what to do if Quebec separates, and voted 96% to separate from Quebec and remain in Canada. The Parti Québécois, the provincial gov't of Quebec at the time, sputtered "Quebec is not divisible!" which created a lot of awkwardness around the whole question of Quebec leaving Canada.
jszymborski
If Canadians are worried about Trumps threats of absorption, then I as a citizen of an independent Alberta would be petrified.
guywithahat
I don't think anyone who's paying attention is worried about some thread of absorption. Trump was making fun of Trudeau when he was saying Canada wouldn't survive without the US's help.
jszymborski
Time and time again throughout history, bold-face, clear-as-day threats of invasion are followed by disbelief, are ignored by folks, followed by the promised invasion. Just ask France in WWII or Ukraine most recently.
I don't make a habit of ignoring major world powers when they threaten annexation, and many others who are "paying attention" don't either.
Trudeau is no longer here, those threats continue to be made, even in the _presence_ of the current leader of Canada. I don't understand how one could not take these threats seriously.
canadiantim
Actually Trump wanting to absorb Canada puts Alberta in a great position.
Canadians like to argue that no province can secede from Canada because it would be illegal but the reality is that if a referendum showed 50%+ of people in Alberta supported independence then the US would support Alberta and that’s the only thing that matters. A lot of Canadian press is wilfully ignorant of that fact.
jszymborski
I don't think the "legality" of separation is a real blocker here, are you insinuating that if the Quebec referendum on its sovereignty would have succeeded that it would have remained a province because it was "illegal"?
ben_w
What happens if I switch nouns so it's California joining Canada?
MeIam
No Alberta will have a war with its aboriginal population as they don't want to join USA.
vkou
> this would not at all directly advance their goals of getting more of their oil product to tidewater, one of their main political grievances
It's a manufactured grievance. Alberta's been pumping and selling more oil than at any point in its history under Trudeau's liberals.
https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/dashboard/oil-productio...
Trace this separatism bullshit back, and you'll find the fingers of the American right fully entwined in all this.
What all the separatists fail to be aware of is that 98% of Alberta is treaty land. It can't secede as a land-locked province, it could only secede as a bunch of fragmented municipalities surrounded by First Nations.
The only actual way towards it would be invasion and annexation by the United States. I hope that anyone looking forward to that timeline is also looking forward to IEDs.
mbohdana
The issue is not selling more oil but where the profit goes. I work for the Alberta Government, I know a person who works for the Ministry of Energy and Minerals who processes land use rights applications for oil and gas activities. Most of the profit obtained from selling the aforementioned rights goes to the federal government (about 85%), and only about 15% gets reinvested into the provincial department
Gothmog69
[flagged]
dang
> got nothing in return except spat in the face
Please don't do regional flamewar on HN. Like national flamewar and religious flamewar, it's a circle of hell we want to avoid here. You can make your substantive points without it, so please do that instead.
rfrey
This is as true as Trump's claim that the US subsidizes Canada $200 billion/year. It's a made-up outrage point.
dustbunny
As a Western Canadian, I actually think it's the media attention on this that has made it more popular. The vast majority of people in my life think this is a terrible idea. Western Canada, and Alberta, have been shafted by federal Canadian politics for a long time, but Carney seems to be saying the right things ("energy super power", "energy corridor", "streamline infrastructure").
tavavex
I agree as a Canadian. It feels like there's vastly more reporting on this than there are actual people fully supporting this movement. These things may be getting more coverage because they sound so outrageous and novel, but it's an unpopular idea even among Albertans. It also lacks anything that Quebec's once-mighty secessionist force had - no unified organization pushing for it, no vision for what an independent Alberta would be like, no cultural differences with the rest of Canada, no irreconcilable grievance with the federal government (outside of them not being conservative enough).
Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of tension in Alberta - but as it stands, this movement is more of a way to voice discontent, rather than a serious plan to become a sovereign state. IMO, it's not worth a dramatic full-page treatment that paints this as a likely possibility - but foreign reporting on Canadian issues has often been very questionable.
ksec
>t feels like there's vastly more reporting on this than there are actual people fully supporting this movement.
Which is everything to say about today's media. They are, wrong, made up and late. They are only here for the clicks and view. Not for informing anyone.
MeIam
[flagged]
slashdev
He’s not doing anything though, it’s just words. In fact he said we don’t need more pipelines, don’t need to repeal bill C69, etc.
pedalpete
I noticed you called yourself Western Canadian, not Albertan. I agree with your sentiments, but I'm curious. The article quotes "I don’t like the way the Liberals treat Western Canada", but BC is Liberal, is it not?
I spent the majority of my life in BC, but I've been away for the last 15 years.
dustbunny
BC is liberal yes.
BC, Quebec and the federal government have prevented further oil industry development while enjoying Alberta tax revenue from said oil industry. That's the basic gripe. And as far as I can tell, it's true.
The whole country is pro-oil now because we've realized we need to be stronger. This election cycle was drastically different compared to the last one which was completely about "climate change". Which was ridiculous imo.
Seperatism is bad, but being pro-Alberta is good. Being pro-Canadian oil and infrastructure development is good.
Teever
As I understand it the BC Liberals are a centre-right party that don't have any affiliation with the Federal Liberal Party of Canada.
diego_moita
As an Albertan I agree. Separatist parties never got more than 5% of the vote here.
What is happening is:
1) Conservatives believed they had a sure path to a super-majority in Ottawa.
2) Trump spoils everything.
3) But Trump is their hero, they'd never blame him. So they blame the usual suspects: Trudeau and the Libs.
4) Because they can't do anything about the Libs victory, they do what spoiled children do when they hear "no": throw a tantrum.
5) Because the media needs circus and drama to catch eyeballs, the media goes to overdrama on their tantrum.
6) Because children on tantrum love attention, they double down on crying and yelling. Go to 4.
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morkalork
Literally just like a child packing a bag and threatening to run away from home because you didn't kowtow to their every demand.
jleyank
Before going to secede, Alberta should do what Quebec has done and "practise" being a country: collect its own taxes, run its own police, run its own retirement system, control provincial immigration, ... This will give them a better idea what will be required to go it alone, and test whether their low-tax haven will survive leaving Canada.
badc0ffee
The UCP (who seem to have no official opinion on separation) have already begun some of this, with an Alberta pension plan and a new Alberta police force.
(Edit: to be clear, these are just proposals the government is exploring at this point.)
> test whether their low-tax haven will survive leaving Canada.
The math already makes sense from a tax perspective. Alberta is a net contributor to the rest of the country, mainly due to resource royalties.
But to me, the question is whether that would still hold when it has to work out trade deals with two neighbouring countries, while small (pop. 5 million), and landlocked.
SketchySeaBeast
> The UCP (who seem to have no official opinion on separation) have already begun some of this, with an Alberta pension plan and a new Alberta police force.
To be clear, none of this has been enacted. The UCP love to threaten, but those initiatives have not proven to be popular with Albertans.
> But to me, the question is whether that would still hold when it has to work out trade deals with two neighbouring countries, while small (pop. 5 million), and landlocked.
And when Alberta needs to take on all the things that the federal government does for them.
slavik81
> The UCP love to threaten, but those initiatives have not proven to be popular with Albertans.
Unpopularity didn't stop them from changing the environmental rules to allow a new coal mine in the eastern slopes of the Rockies. The vast majority of Albertans were opposed and they went ahead anyway.
nonchalantsui
There is no Alberta Pension Plan that exists today. All provinces also already run their own police forces. So there has been no movement on this in Alberta.
badc0ffee
> There is no Alberta Pension Plan that exists today.
There is a fund (AIMCo) that the government is proposing to convert in to a general pension plan. So far that has not been popular enough to translate into concrete action.
> All provinces also already run their own police forces.
No, rural policing is handled by the RCMP in 8 provinces. Ontario has the OPP and Quebec has SQ.
> So there has been no movement on this in Alberta.
The idea of the police force is more popular with voters than the idea of the pension plan. So, something could come of it: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-plans-to-cre...
aylmao
They can't be an independent country, because their position is indefensible. Over 3/4ths of their borders would be with Canada— that's enough influence and threat to thwart any separatism. Who do you trade with? How do you keep Canadian troops away?
The only way this could happen is if the only other country Alberta borders, the United States, strongly supports the separation— strongly enough to break ties with Canada over it that is. And if it does, I suspect Alberta wouldn't be independent very long. All trade and most defense would be with and thanks to the United States. It'd be easy for the USA to annex Alberta.
beAbU
Lesotho is completely surrounded by South Africa, and yet they continue to exist independently.
Mind you it's not a bastion of first world quality of living.
Switzerland is in a similar position, albeit surrounded by the EU, and they are part of the Schengen region.
refurb
That makes no sense. Plenty of countries exist with no ability to defend themselves against their neighbors in a war.
Usually what you do is prioritize good enough relations to avoid war.
aylmao
But that wouldn't be the case here, would it?
Canada wouldn't keep its arms closed as it looses its most profitable province, connection to its western ocean, and over 11% of its population. Unless the USA vows to defend Alberta, this would certainly mean Canadian troops marching towards Edmonton. It's an existential threat. Looking at the map, it splits Canada in two.
I'm not saying this would mean war. Alberta doesn't have the right geography or military power to fight a war with Canada, unlike, say, the South in the American Civil War. Canadian troops would into Edmonton with little resistance and Alberta would return to Canada.
The only way Alberta could remain independent is if the USA defended it. I don't think this would mean war either— Canada would never go to war with the United States. At most troops from both sides would be positioned on each side of the border, to show they mean business, but Canada wouldn't fire a shot.
Knowing thus, that Alberta depends on them for both trade and defense (reminder, Alberta is land-locked and could only trade with the USA or Canada), and given their recent expansionist rhetoric, would the USA really opt to keep Alberta as an independent country they spent money defending, but get no taxes or land jurisdiction from, or would they expect to eventually incorporate it?
slashdev
Why wouldn’t it? Alberta pays more than it receives. It would be more capable of paying for services without Canada to hold it back.
bee_rider
Some clause to this effect could be a nice thing to add to any future unions. Want to leave? Go for it! Run your own services, take your chunk of the national debt and once you’ve paid it off you are free.
Why are countries begging their regions to stay? It’s obviously just a negotiation or political rhetoric. If these movements actually had to take themselves seriously they would immediately dissolve I think.
projektfu
Because a national identity means more than a temporary convenience, and regions have ups and downs in their fortunes. Why should the rich parts of Alberta fund the poor parts?
bee_rider
Just to be clear; the idea there was to reduce the tendency to make these threats by actually providing a serious path toward succession. I think these movements are mostly not serious or well thought out, so this would be a good way of calling their bluffs.
wagwang
alberta is a net tax contributor unlike an annoying unnamed province
bryanlarsen
For maybe another 10 more years, tops. With the world adding > 1TW of solar every year and > 20 million EV's every year, the demand for oil is going to drop. Alberta oilsands oil has the most expensive production costs of any major oil production area, which means they're the marginal producer, the first to shut down. Saudi Arabia with their cheap light oil is going to be making money on oil for at least 50 years, but Alberta will be lucky to get 10 more.
badc0ffee
> Alberta oilsands oil has the most expensive production costs of any major oil production area, which means they're the marginal producer, the first to shut down
This has not been true for years. Oil sands costs are lower than US shale costs: https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/varcoe-canadian...
The oil sands projects are longer-lived (no need to continually dig new wells), and labour costs have been optimized after the price shock of 2014.
bluefirebrand
Alberta is nothing but empty space and sunshine. It is a prime location for Solar
It will continue to be an energy juggernaut
slashdev
People have been saying that for decades. Oil isn’t going anywhere anytime soon
bdcravens
A lot of this may hinge on whether the US's drive to end subsidies for solar and EVs stick and if they take hold elsewhere.
Tiktaalik
All this means is that the average income of citizens in Alberta is dramatically higher than other provinces and so Alberta pays more in the federal taxes that are applied uniformly to everyone.
I'm sure the other provinces also wish they had such high paying jobs and contributed more in taxes!
Avg individual income Alberta: 74,237
Avg individual income New Brunswick: 57,336.
SketchySeaBeast
Yeah, this whole "Alberta gives Quebec money" complaint is in fact just how federal income, in the form of income tax, is distributed and is like getting upset that your provincial taxes are paying for something in Red Deer when you live in Calgary.
Marsymars
Wait how are you calculating this?
I’d expect that even the least wealthy province is a net tax contributor. Equalization is only ~5% of the total budget.
Gothmog69
Yup this is what the so-called firewall is all about and floating an alberta CPP
dblohm7
Albertan here: a supermajority of Albertans are opposed to separation, but it continues to be amplified by the press.
Danielle Smith, our provincial premier (equivalent to a state governor) is trying to pull a David Cameron to appease the separatist wing of her party.
JackYoustra
you'd figure that the mere invocation of the name would dissuade such a person from the idea!
vouaobrasil
Sounds like the desires of spoiled brats in my opinion. Alberta enjoys low income taxes (10% flat until a VERY high amount), no provincial sales tax, and lots of money from oil. Life is very good in Alberta generally and yet they still want more. People say Alberta gets shafted by federal politics it's rather selfish to want to benefit even more from oil considering that is the one thing that is bringing down this world. Sounds like the real problem is that the selfish brats just want to freeload off more oil because they want the cheap life of high consumerism. Sad.
_benton
The "spoiled brats" are the eastern Canadians who take billions of dollars from Alberta while enjoying overrepresentation in the federal government and voting against the interests of the people who fund their provinces. Eastern Canadians enjoy favourable deals with the federal government and denigrate Albertans who protest the unfairness of it. For all the hate Alberta gets, they sure are eager to keep them in Canada...
vouaobrasil
I don't disagree. I think Canadians are in general, spoiled brats. Albertans and others. And I'm not trying to be insulting. I'm Canadian myself.
null
_benton
I don't disagree either haha. But on this particular issue the spoiled party seems to be the ones receiving the money
thr0waway001
Next huge wildfire after Alberta secedes will be very very interesting.
Heck just last year, the most prominent city in Alberta, Calgary, needed help just dealing with breaking a huge water main breaking.
With drought becoming more of a real threat every year Alberta will be in a shitty place being landlocked.
We are gonna need the rest of Canada’s help. Unfortunately, we can’t drink the oil.
SketchySeaBeast
As an Albertan I really have to wonder who is behind this PR push. Immediately after the election there were people coming to my door, asking about my attitude towards separatism. There's been flyers and news articles, and now there's an article in the NY Times? Considering the relative unpopularity of the movement, whoever is bankrolling this has a big reach and deep pockets.
earlyriser
I think this is part of the Balkanization of the West ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics ) and I'm really surprised this is not stronger in Quebec, but I guess it's more easy to orchestrate a propaganda campaign in English.
nonce42
I agree. The sudden influence of the separatist movement does match what that book (Foundations of Geopolitics) says: "Russia should use its special services within the borders of the United States and Canada to fuel instability and separatism" (quote from Wikipedia). I don't want to be a conspiracy nut, but I have to wonder how many separatist and protest movements are unknowingly getting external support to produce geopolitical disorder.
aylmao
> I don't want to be a conspiracy nut, but I have to wonder how many separatist and protest movements are unknowingly getting external support to produce geopolitical disorder.
I'm Latin-American, so this doesn't sound at all nutty to me. The USA has long been doing this: from successful attempts promoting separatism in Panama and Texas, to failed attempt in Sonora and Baja California (officially a private citizen acting in his own accord, but conveniently enjoying the complacency of the US Government). It's one of the strategies big powers use, and there's more examples of this in Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world.
I think it's worth considering that perhaps this isn't Russian-fueled separatism, but American-fueled. The would gain a lot USA from an independent Alberta. It'd go the way of Texas— independent for about a year and then incorporated into the United States. Moreover, Alberta statehood would create a geographical rift in Canada that would place immense pressure on British Columbia to go independent or join the United States too.
It would also make the future annexation of the Northwest Territories and the Yukon much more likely, which would not only give the USA better access to the North-West Passage [1] and a wealth of resources, but it would connect Alaska to the rest of the continental USA.
[1]: https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/future-northern-sea-route...
sequoia
> have to wonder how many separatist and protest movements are unknowingly getting external support to produce geopolitical disorder.
Many movements "wittingly" receive external support. From wikipedia[0]:
> In 2022, a report by the Network Contagion Research Institute (NCRI) identified Qatar as the most significant foreign donor to American universities. The research revealed that from 2001 to 2021, US higher education institutions received US$13 billion in funding from foreign sources, with Qatar contributing donations totaling $4.7 billion to universities in the United States.
In addition to investing in US Universities, Qatar is also host to the the Hamas political apparatus, which operates out of Doha.
Foreign propagandists don't exclusively target right wing radical movements, they are very happy to exploit leftists as well!
0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatari_involvement_in_US_highe...
vdupras
Quebec separatism isn't popular right now, but I also think the the balkanization of the West is coming. The separatist party in Quebec has pretty good support right now, not because separatism is popular, but because of the lack of options.
Next elections are in 2026 and I think that by then, something, I don't know what, but some event, some context difficult to predict, will put back Quebec separatism on the forefront. This time around, there will be many, many less people coming to the front to defend Canada, which is already pretty weak now.
So yeah, that's my wild prediction: Canada doesn't exist anymore in 2027.
decimalenough
Isn't Trump's sole accomplishment making Canada more united? External threats are great at bringing people together, so while Quebec may have a rocky relationship with the rest of Canada, but they still much prefer the status quo over becoming the 51st state.
libraryatnight
Genuine question from someone ignorant about that ignorance: I'm aware of some desire for Quebec independence, I'd never heard of similar for Alberta. Is it extra propaganda value to stoke the independence movement somewhere it's less prevalent in hopes it riles up the area where it already is more pronounced? Assuming it is more pronounced - as I am not well informed on Canadian politics.
jszymborski
DISCLAIMER: This is from the perspective of a Quebecker, not an Albertan.
Alberta separatism is something that has been floated at various points in the zeitgeist, but for many, many reasons[0], I have mostly heard it spoken about unseriously by all but few on the fringe.
The Quebec sovereignty movement came on the wings of the Quiet Revolution[1] which had critical mass and large support from the francophone population which made up the vast majority of the province.
[0] It's unpopularity among alberans and impracticality as a landlocked province, being chief among them.
lareter77
I am American but I know many conservative Canadians that this was basically the last straw. I am not even sure conservative is the right word. Just not liberal. They work a trade, like bars, beer, hockey and hanging out. They really don't care about politics at a deep level.
I had been sick of hearing them complain about Trudeau for years.
They thought it was obvious things were going to swing the other way and instead the country voted to stay on the same path that Trudeau literally resigned from.
Canada is basically a one party state at this point. It would be like if the only US media was the NY Times, MSNBC and CNN. The media jumped on Trump's comments about the 51st state and swung the election with ease.
It is not just Alberta, the people I know are in Ontario but there is nothing they can do. They would for sure move to Alberta if this happened. It will all be framed like this is some crazy fringe idea though even though 19 of 20 Canadians I know would agree.
The absurd thing to me with Alberta separatism is that there is no way the US would allow this. They would be a defenseless resource rich territory for Chinese infiltration.
Canada is in huge trouble. They are basically single party, money laundering haven at this point with a Soviet style media brainwashing regime.
Ultimately, In the long run I think Canada ends up a casualty caught in the cross fire between the US and China.
AlexandrB
Is it unpopular? I grew up in Alberta and know many people who would be happy to separate, going back to my step dad way back in the 90s. Plenty of Albertans also still hold a grudge for the National Energy Program[1] that bankrupted them in the 80s. At the very least, many Albertan's perceive Queubec separatism as a negotiating tactic that allowed Quebec to secure preferential treatment from Ottawa and would be willing to try the same approach.
SketchySeaBeast
Yes, it's unpopular. There've been no polls that indicate it would have any chance of passing if it came down to a vote. A lot of Albertans love to grumble.
BJones12
That's like saying Bernie was unpopular because he couldn't win the primary. He was very popular.
tenpies
Polls were also showing the Liberals would be wiped out - possibly not even the opposition party - and Conservatives would form a super majority.
Which is why it's important to remember that polls are a moment in time and the circumstances of that moment.
One divisive comment from Carney or his cabinet. One Trump truth. One more set of tariffs. That's all it takes for a 20% swing in polling that already shows that shows that 36% of Albertans are for leaving[1].
Also worth adding that everyone is sleeping on Saskatchewan which is crucially important to Canada, even more ignored by the Liberals than Alberta, and just as likely to leave.
Saskatchewan is also suffering China's tariffs on Canada, which Carney has not ever responded to and ignores almost as much as he ignores Saskatchewan itself[2].
[1] https://angusreid.org/referendum-alberta-saskatchewan-smith-...
[2] https://www.rbc.com/en/thought-leadership/the-trade-hub/food...
hbsbsbsndk
I think it's a "fuck around and find out" situation like Brexit. People love to stomp their feet and complain, but when some big interest group actually organizes the vote and it happens they'll be caught unawares.
People complain about have/have-not provinces, but Alberta would be in a much worse position as a independent nation. There are benefits to Confederation beyond just shuffling tax dollars around.
aylmao
This certainly sounds to me more like a Texas situation. Independent for about a year, to then join the USA.
alfor
It would join the USA right away. That would be the end of Canada.
Alupis
As an outsider with no horse in the race, and pays little attention to domestic affairs of foreign nations - has Brexit actually been that awful for people?
For all of the doomsday talk, hand-wringing, and sky-is-falling bluster, nothing substantial/consequential seems to have materialized.
BJones12
As someone who grew up in Ontario, I judge this comment to be 100% accurate.
jack_h
The polls that I've seen showed something like 30% wanted independence before the election and now it's in the high 30% to mid 40%[1]. The polls could of course be wrong, but if they're any indication it seems as though it isn't that unpopular of a position, but it is highly contentious.
I'm sure there's a lot of people behind the PR push for independence and similarly there will be a lot of people behind a counter PR push against independence. Assuming that another position exists merely because of powerful interests usually leads to a lot of strife as two sides of an issue can never reconcile their differences; after all you can't debate against a position that is perceived as being held by people due to powerful interests tricking them into holding it. The reverse will also naturally happen.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_separatism#Opinion_pol...
SketchySeaBeast
I'm assuming the position exists because of the active and obvious manpower involved.
Like I said, there's now people going door to door and flyers being handed out. Important to note, it's not just about separation, it's explicitly in connection to the "Republican Party of Alberta", a newly rebranded political party that has, to date, been entirely inconsequential (the preceding Buffalo Party got 106 votes in the 2023 Provincial Election). There's an obvious and concerted effort to coordinate the sentiment through a single centralized source.
I'm not saying the sentiment didn't exist at all before them, there's always been grumblings, but they are latching on to it and intentionally turning it up to 11.
mycatisblack
My first thought when reading the title was “divide & conquer”
dustbunny
Agreed. Immediately after the election this was talked about heavily, but all the rural western Canadians I know are super pro-Canada and not in favor of separatism. It feels like it's even less popular now because of how nationalistic the boomer generation became during this election cycle.
As someone with deep connection to the rural roots of this place, this seperatism stuff feels fake.
stego-tech
Those who promote separatism often have the most to gain from instability. A divided populace is far easier to exploit than a unified one, and the same goes for a fractured government. The UK, the US, Canada, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see more of these overtures from western countries in the decade ahead.
People whose sole skill is exploitation of others always seem to believe they can run the world better than others; it’s why they bankroll these movements.
vdupras
How can we tell if a populace is unified or not? If Canada and the US merged, would it be more "unified"? Would the world population be more "unified" under a world government?
If not, what makes the existing governments more legitimate than those fake "unification dreams"?
jmward01
Information warfare is still warfare. Now that we are in the age of information, and disinformation, maybe it is time that countries, and populations, start taking information warfare more seriously. If there really is an entity bankrolling this in an effort to create something that doesn't exist, then what is the appropriate response?
jmward01
Since this comment caused negative reactions, does anyone have a comment about why this is such a bad observation?
dismalaf
As a born Albertan, it's not unpopular. The current separatists aren't popular politicians per se, but the idea we should push for a new plan with the feds like Quebec and the idea of separation itself is more popular than ever.
And yes, the people funding it have deep pockets. It's the oil industry. You know what else though? The oil industry bankrolls nearly everything in Alberta. Oil royalties are the reason we don't have PST. It employs hundreds of thousands. That money then supports construction, services, etc...
Anyone who was in Alberta when oil was booming knows exactly what it does for the province.
Also, it's Canada's #1 export. It keeps the dollar at least almost respectable. And billions get taken from Alberta to pay for the welfare of Canadians in other provinces. Alberta's GDP per capita is literally 35% higher than Canada's... And that's with them kneecapping us...
nonchalantsui
Alberta does not pay for the welfare of Canadians in other provinces, it has never paid towards any equalization systems. It has taken billions in debt though, including during COVID when oil flatlined.
The reason Danielle et al were cozying up to US politicians at private events, pushing narratives like embracing America's new direction, isn't for independence or a new federal plan - it's to become the 51st state.
dismalaf
https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/programs/federal...
From the horse's mouth...
There's a nice chart at the bottom to show how much each province pays, and which provinces receive equalization payments (it's in red). Alberta pays 50% more per capita than any Eastern province and doesn't receive equalization (obviously).
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YZF
What's in this for the oil industry? Not sure that oil companies actively working for separatism makes sense. What would be the consequences if it becomes public that they're doing this?
What sort of pull do the oil companies have over NY Times and other media that's reverberating this?
Money pours in when oil prices are high. That's not exactly under Alberta's control. What happens when there's an energy bear market? What is the push towards alternative energy going to do in the long run? Also Alberta is landlocked which would make exporting oil more difficult if Alberta becomes a country. One of PP's talking point (not wrong IMO) was that not having invested in being able to export to non-US customers was forcing Canada to sell oil for lower prices to the US.
EDIT: another random thought is that a lot of labor in Alberta came from out of the province. How is separating going to impact that?
BJones12
> What's in this for the oil industry?
The ability to sell more oil at a higher price, and to lose less of the revenue as tax.
rfrey
Low royalties compared to other jurisdictions, with the possibility of them going lower with an "independent" government comprised of their surrogates.
Complete socialization of externalities: for example oil companies are flagrantly ignoring their legal obligations to clean up abandoned sites, and the current government is moving to assume the liability for them. Having that and similar cost offloading happen without the pesky federal courts interfering is worth some investment.
dismalaf
Honestly, the ideal isn't separatism, but for Canada to end interprovincial tariffs, allow Alberta to transport oil to the coast unimpeded.
Europe is basically begging for oil and gas to replace Russia, but Quebec is blocking any pipelines going east.
wussboy
I have lived in Alberta for the last thirty years, but I see myself as a Canadian. The “us vs them” you embrace makes no sense to me because that’s not where I draw my circles. Alberta is not being robbed by Canada in the same way that me moving funds from checking to savings isn’t robbing my checking account.
Everyone can draw a circle such that they feel aggrieved. But that’s no great feat, nor is it commendable.
SauciestGNU
It's just wild to sit in Alberta and push to become a Russian-style oligarchic petrostate.
dismalaf
What makes you think we'd resemble Russia more than, say, Norway?
MeIam
This is oil talking and how does oil talk? Via oil companies. Americans own a lot of oil in Alberta. Americans are Astroturfing. They do it at home and abroad and that is how Citizen United produced corporate personhood in USA.
If Alberta wants to separate and it's native people/aboriginals who own much of the land, don't go along, are they going to go to war?
BJones12
This Astral Codex Ten (Slate Star Codex) article is what led me to think Alberta would be better off if it separated from Canada:
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-cities-and...
dang
That's a whole new view of Jane Jacobs! You should post this as a submission to HN sometime (maybe in a few weeks, after which it won't seem like a follow-up to this thread). If you want to do that, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll arrange to put it in the second-chance pool (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26998308), which guarantees at least a bit of frontpage time.
(Edit: I suppose I should hasten to add that my response here isn't about Alberta/Canada. Just about JJ.)
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bhewes
Having lived in Alberta and Quebec as an American this is funny as hell, but that is Canada got to do something with too much time inside.
cafard
Canadians will correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that at least Alberta made noises about secession 40 or 50 years ago.
bluefirebrand
More recently than that. Alberta independence is a can that gets kicked around quite a bit
https://archive.ph/cIwx6