California overtakes Japan to become the world's fourth largest economy
105 comments
·April 25, 2025pavlov
jandrewrogers
On a per capita basis, California still has some work to do. Washington, Massachusetts, and New York are all significantly higher. No one should get bonus points for having a large population.
threatofrain
Especially not China.
Afforess
California should acquire some nuclear weapons then.
smallnix
I doubt its realistic for powerful states like California to cecede. Is there a path from here to a near (think 50 years) future, where California and the US, sans California, exist?
fifilura
I don't want the US to break up.
But I wonder if it wouldn't be more healthy for you if the states grew a bit more independent.
It would give the president less power to decide exactly how schools and universities should be run or would open up for social welfare reforms in the states that want it.
anothernewdude
I doubt its realistic for powerful colonies like America to declare independence.
RobRivera
I don't think cessation was the implication
labster
Why secede when we can just get our state sold to Denmark?
kubb
They should promise him a cut.
aoanevdus
Supposedly there are hundreds in Concord.
Angostura
or some kompromat
panick21_
Nuclear weapons aren't a magical cloak that when you put it everybody has to do what you say. Its one of many consideration in foreign policy.
And the idea that you have to make 'Russia happy' because they have nukes, if fucking beyond dumb.
ninetyninenine
All our GDP is in software. We don't know how to make anything except AI and web apps. We wouldn't know what to do with a nuke.
cenamus
In that case, all of Russia GDP is oil and natural gas
bbarnett
Incredibly wrong.
Hollywood is still a thing. Manufacturing, yes manufacturing. Agriculture. The Bay Area is a fraction of that GDP, and a small geographical part of California.
rafale
Ask Nevada.
hackyhacky
California is anti-American and disloyal, because they voted for the other party. /s
Russia, on the other hand, supports the President, so they deserve to be rewarded.
grugagag
Plus they helped and continue to help the president dismantle or incapacitate his own government.
Ylpertnodi
>Russia, on the other hand, supports the President, so they deserve to be rewarded.
You forgot the /SS [Not being historical, damn autocorrect, i mean hysterical, but comments; comments, they're a beautiful thing, comments - i meant /sarcasm, sarcasm. Beautiful sarcasm, they had sarcasm-such a beautiful word - two hundred years ago...etc, etc.
captainmuon
It's funny that the list includes both California and the US.
It would be interesting to compare economies of the same scale, regardless of legal status: If you are considering the US and China, maybe you should include the whole of the EU. And if you are looking at Germany, Japan, ... It makes sense to not only include California, but also to split up other countries. I'm curious how high up Guandong or Shanghai would be for example.
The fact that the US and China show up as single countries (and not "continents"/regions) whereas the EU shows up as a bunch of "small" countries is source of a lot of inferiority complex in Europe.
carlmr
>The fact that the US and China show up as single countries (and not "continents"/regions) whereas the EU shows up as a bunch of "small" countries is source of a lot of inferiority complex in Europe.
On the one hand, yes, you're right, the EU is more powerful economically as a whole than as individual states. But on the other hand the individual states are a bit less unified than the US or China. So they are a bit more individual in the first place.
jillesvangurp
The EU is still fairly new. It's only been around in its current form for a few decades or so.
EU countries still have:
- their own laws and constitutions
- their own foreign policy, embassies, intelligence services, armies, etc.
- their own taxation; there actually is no EU tax (though there is some pressure to create such a thing)
- their own policies for education, healthcare, social security, taxation, trade, etc.
- their own currency in some cases (e.g. Denmark, Sweden, Poland and many other eastern European countries)
- border disputes like Cyprus, the Balkans (several former Yugoslav countries are members or aspiring to be). And though not part of it, you might count Greenland here as it is Danish with a special status.
As a trade block, the EU is pretty large. And the sphere of influence also includes former soviet states not part of the EU, Turkey, Northern Africa, etc. But it doesn't speak with one voice like the US and China tend to do. Also there is a lot of division on topics like e.g. the Ukraine war, energy, and a lot of other topics.
Symbiote
Each US state also has
- its own laws and constitution, search "Constitution of California"
- its own taxation (e.g. sales tax differs between states, just as VAT rates differ between EU countries; Americans pay income tax to their state as well as the federation)
- its own policies for education, healthcare (not sure about social security, and not for trade)
- some US states have border disputes with other states, e.g. Tennessee vs Georgia (Possibly the EU does not, they must be resolved before joining, though I can't find a good article on this).
- the USA as a whole has border disputes with Canada
The EU presents more division on more topics than the USA, but the USA isn't united on e.g. energy policy.
Dagonfly
> I'm curious how high up Guandong or Shanghai would be for example
Surprisingly far down: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first-level_administra...
California, Texas, England, New York, Guangdong, Jiangsu. Both with slightly smaller GDP than Russia, the 11th largest economy.
More interesting is the PPP table where Guangdong is close to California.
eGP9jDq_nw
>The fact that the US and China show up as single countries (and not "continents"/regions) whereas the EU shows up as a bunch of "small" countries is source of a lot of inferiority complex in Europe. is it? I've only ever seen USians push the "country of europe" thing
standardUser
The EU is very frequently included in data comparing nation states, along with it's individual members. It's the only supranational organization usually included on those kinds of lists, though sometimes you'll see groups like the G20.
simonask
The EU is also the only organization of its kind on the planet. It's not a federal state, but it's also way, way more integrated and unified than something like the G20, OECD, etc.
It's also the only thing that can work in Europe. Anything smaller would make Europe irrelevant on the global stage, and something much more invasive would erase Europe as we know it.
The current mood in smaller European countries is that even though many are skeptical of French and German influence, our interests align most of the time, especially now that the US has succumbed to fascism and stupidity.
ksajadi
I wish we had the same outsized influence over the US federal policy as well.
NewJazz
What, 12% of the population, 14% of the economy. 2% of the voting power in the Senate. Pretty similar for Texas, New York, Florida. Malapportionment is a disease.
Manfred
Tying economic output to political power gets hairy pretty quickly. You incentivize states to put economic outcome before the wellbeing of the citizens and give states with rare natural resources more power than those that rely on value produced by a workforce.
dyauspitr
Tying population to political power definitely makes sense though.
simonask
In general yes, but all democracies have this guiding principle, including the EU, where small nations have much more electoral power per capita than larger nations.
For example, each Maltese member of the European Parliament is elected by 90,000 voters in Malta. Each German member is elected by ~878,000 voters in German, meaning each Maltese citizen has about 10x more power than each German citizen.
In this case, the German "bloc" is still vastly more powerful, but the disproportionate representation is important to ensure the loyalty of small nations, who are always incentivized to navigate much narrower interests.
platevoltage
I wouldn't say the US Senate and Electoral College make much sense.
null
null
raverbashing
Honestly 80% of California's problems are self-inflicted
NIMBYs limiting growth.
Crazy crime handling policies in SF (which are getting reverted now).
Cities outside the main centers (SFBA, LA, etc) dying.
Complete political ineptitude for things like HSR
No wonder they're losing population
janalsncm
I agree with you about many of those problems but those things are also true in any other US state. It’s not like Texas or Tennessee or Minnesota have huge HSR networks that California doesn’t.
Austin is quickly building more housing though, which I am a fan of.
udev4096
And Japan is still the most peaceful place to live!
maxglute
Or how JP "plummeted" from 6 trillion economy to 4 trillion because their FX went from 100:1 USD to 160:1 (at peak last year) now 140:1. Still eaking slow growth in yen terms.
JP can still be 1/3 larger than california US compels them to appreciate. I think 140 is probably a good balance for JP exports (high tech) and imports (energy, commodities/inputs).
Or Trump makes USD weaker.
ninetyninenine
The title almost implies that CA had some unnatural acceleration to put it past japan. I think it's more that japan has been declining.
This won't last once the US population starts declining. We've been held afloat by immigration but even that's running out.
Japan was ahead of the curve in terms of modernity. Looking at them is almost like looking at our own future.
throwaway473825
In 2023, Germany overtook Japan as the world's third largest economy. This year, India is projected to overtake Japan as the world's fourth largest economy. I wonder if the article has taken India into account.
rsynnott
It's not even really that, I think; given that it's nominal GDP, it's likely mostly currency fluctuations, likely taken at end of 2024. If so, the nominal GDP situation has likely reverted, as the dollar has fallen about 9% vs the yen since the start of the year.
This is one of the reasons that nominal GDP isn't all that useful a metric.
Aeolun
Japan’s population will start declining faster than the US though xD we have maybe 10 years before basically the entirety rural population starts dying from old age.
Ylpertnodi
>We've been held afloat by immigration but even that's running out.
'Running out' - cute euphemism for 'you're not welcome', and very much worser: 'deportation'.
Axsuul
The US has immigration
platevoltage
Japan might want to consider it soon too.
ninetyninenine
Japan already is. Going to Japan today you’ll see that it’s an extremely multicultural country loaded with tourists and immigrants.
remarkEon
Why?
remarkEon
Magically, immigration is the _one_ supply shock that has zero impact on wages. Or, the _one_ demand shock that has zero impact on housing prices. The only impact it apparently does have is to make the GDP number go up.
aaron695
[dead]
up2isomorphism
[flagged]
NewJazz
Have you looked in Temecula?
refurb
While a low effort comment, it does touch on an important topic.
Imagine if CA was run with the kind of efficiency that Singapore or South Korea was run. Clean, safe streets. Modern infrastructure.
Instead we get a state government that is going to waste the goose that laid the golden egg. The high taxes paid disappear in a black hole centered in Sacramento.
CA reminds me of New Jersey. Other states used to be jealous of New Jersey's economy, yet the riches were frittered away by an inefficient government.
zdragnar
Panhandling / begging and sleeping in public places is punishable with prison time (assuming you can't pay the massive fine) in Singapore.
California wouldn't be California if it was run like Singapore or if it had the 9-9 chaebol work culture like South Korea.
janalsncm
> punishable with prison time
The police can force you to stay in a shelter, yes. But they have them available. Most very poor people in SG stay in subsidized housing.
In SF there literally are not enough shelter beds. If you were homeless today you would have to sleep on the street.
Ylpertnodi
[flagged]
iagooar
I have probably never felt more insecure (and disgusted at the same time) in a Western country, the way I felt on the streets of LA. Not all of them, of course, some are obviously well guarded - which in turn makes me think the government and city council is not doing a great job really.
Is the situation as bad in San Francisco?
Axsuul
LA is gigantic. There are more safe streets there than most major cities in the world.
Aeolun
Tokyo begs to differ
I was going to use some numbers but because Japan doesn’t really do street names it wasn’t really comparable.
Tokyo has 25k km of streets. LA has 9k miles.
Edit: Missed the ‘most’, sorry.
RobRivera
SF is better than I remember 6 years ago.
Purely anecdotal
ninetyninenine
LA is freaking large. Depending on where you are some places are more disgusting then others while other places are completely pristine.
SF is worse. But SF is also tiny.
suraci
[flagged]
AngryData
That would be silly, California is what it is today because it is part of the United States. The ports by themselves bring in a lot of money and being another country introduces two new borders that the United States would want to avoid and go around. It also has a lot of money in the financial sector, which would gain significant extra barriers and costs with the rest of US businesses if it wasn't part of the US. Plus the only places where you get majority support for that sort of thing in more dense urban areas and losing large chunks of the state's landmass would definitely hurt the California economy.
kryptiskt
California's economy is so big because it's part of the American economy. California gets credited for Google, but most of the suckers clicking on ads and making Google rich aren't in California, most of Google's workers aren't in California. Cutting off California from that would be way dumber than Brexit.
atarian
And then China steps in to protect California from getting annexed by the United States.
oblio
China isn't annexing Germany any time soon, for example. California could afford a solid defensive military.
hurray-sandbag
If California separated from the US, most of California would separate from California and rejoin the US.
Read about the "State of Jefferson" movement, etc. The Coastal cities in California are really a completely different place from the rest of the state, and the rest of the state is pretty dissatisfied with this union.
zippyman55
The people in Jefferson County come off as pretty loony.
oblio
That thing only has an estimated 3 million people, and that's including a lot of Oregon.
Surprisingly, those Coastal cities have a lot of people (common theme in the US).
RobRivera
>Like Taiwan
I see what you did there.
ninetyninenine
Taiwan is not free.
VincentEvans
It may have been a subtle joke. Eg US would then consider it a break-away territory and president would declare a timeline of bringing back into the fold.
ex-leper
Come over here and visit during election season. Even in the country town where I live there are traffic stopping rallies by multiple polical parties.
wordofx
Why?
platevoltage
The USA won't even commit to referring to them as free.
suraci
I suppose it’s because there’s a political massacre happening there.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3306215/tai...
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%A4%A7%E7%BD%B7%E5%85%8D (Chinese)
derelicta
I personally yearn for the balkanisation of the US. That's unironically why I think a TEXIT would be very beneficial to the rest of the world. The more the Empire fights itself, the weaker it is, and the freer the world becomes.
swarnie
One good earthquake and you might get your wish.
Mountain_Skies
Otisburg is going to be the new place to be.
suraci
why, i don't want anyone to get hurt
California’s GDP is now twice as large as Russia’s.
Yet the President of the United States seems to spend a lot of time trying to make Russians happy, and zero time making Californians happy.