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The Case That A.I. Is Thinking

j1mr10rd4n

Geoffrey Hinton's recent lecture at the Royal Institute[1] is a fascinating watch. His assertion that human use of language being exactly analogous to neural networks with back-propagation really made me think about what LLMs might be able to do, and indeed, what happens in me when I "think". A common objection to LLM "intelligence" is that "they don't know anything". But in turn... what do biological intelligences "know"?

For example, I "know" how to do things like write constructs that make complex collections of programmable switches behave in certain ways, but what do I really "understand"?

I've been "taught" things about quantum mechanics, electrons, semiconductors, transistors, integrated circuits, instruction sets, symbolic logic, state machines, assembly, compilers, high-level-languages, code modules, editors and formatting. I've "learned" more along the way by trial and error. But have I in effect ended up with anything other than an internalised store of concepts and interconnections? (c.f. features and weights).

Richard Sutton takes a different view in an interview with Dwarkesh Patel[2] and asserts that "learning" must include goals and reward functions but his argument seemed less concrete and possibly just a semantic re-labelling.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkdziSLYzHw [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21EYKqUsPfg

tkz1312

Having seen LLMs so many times produce coherent, sensible and valid chains of reasoning to diagnose issues and bugs in software I work on, I am at this point in absolutely no doubt that they are thinking.

Consciousness or self awareness is of course a different question, and ones whose answer seems less clear right now.

Knee jerk dismissing the evidence in front of your eyes because you find it unbelievable that we can achieve true reasoning via scaled matrix multiplication is understandable, but also betrays a lack of imagination and flexibility of thought. The world is full of bizarre wonders and this is just one more to add to the list.

mft_

Personal take: LLMs are probably part of the answer (to AGI?) but are hugely handicapped by their current architecture: the only time that long-term memories are formed is during training, and everything after that (once they're being interacted with) sits only in their context window, which is the equivalent of fungible, fallible, lossy short-term memory. [0] I suspect that many things they currently struggle with can be traced back to this.

Overcome this fundamental limitation and we'll have created introspection and self-learning. However, it's hard to predict whether this will allow them to make novel, intuitive leaps of discovery?

[0] It's an imperfect analogy, but we're expecting perfection from creations which are similarly handicapped as Leonard Shelby in the film Memento.

bitwize

I'm also reminded of the bit from Neuromancer where Case removes and then reinserts the Dixie Flatline "ROM construct" cartridge, resetting Dixie to the moment just before his death and causing him to forget their previous (albeit brief) conversation. Dixie can't meaningfully grow as a person. All that he ever will be is burned onto that cart; anything he learns since then is stored in temporary memory. Perhaps this is part of the reason why he wishes to be erased forever, ending his suffering.

kenjackson

"Dixie can't meaningfully grow as a person. All that he ever will be is burned onto that cart;"

It's not that Dixie can't meaningful grow -- really the issue is that Dixie can be reset. If Dixie's cart simply degraded after 90 years, and you couldn't reset it, but everything else was the same -- would you then say Dixie could grow as a person? As humans we basically have a 90 year cart that once it no longer works, we're done. There is no reset. But we don't continue growing. You can't transfer us to a new body/brain. Once our temporary storage degrades, we cease to exist. Is that what makes us human?

monkeycantype

Until we have a testable, falsifiable thesis of how consciousness forms in meat, it is rash to exclude that consciousness could arise from linear algebra. Our study of the brain has revealed an enormous amount about how our anatomy processes information, but nothing of substance on the relationship between matter and consciousness. The software and data of an operating LLM is not purely abstract, it has a physical embodiment as circuits and electrons. Until we understand how matter is connected to consciousness, we also cannot know whether the arrangements and movements of electrons meet the criteria for forming consciousness.

everdrive

This is merely a debate about what it means to "think." We didn't really previously need to disambiguate thinking / intelligence / consciousness / sentience / ego / identity / etc.

Now, we do. Partly because of this we don't have really well defined ways to define these terms and think about. Can a handheld calculator think? Certainly, depending on how we define "think."

b00ty4breakfast

all this "AI IS THINKING/CONSCIOUS/WHATEVER" but nobody seems worried of that implication that, if that is even remotely true, we are creating a new slave market. This either implies that these people don't actually believes any of this boostering rhetoric and are just cynically trying to cash in or that the technical milieu is in a profoundly disturbing place ethically.

To be clear, I don't believe that current AI tech is ever going to be conscious or win a nobel prize or whatever, but if we follow the logical conclusions to this fanciful rhetoric, the outlook is bleak.

kerblang

Slaves that cannot die.

There is no escape.

adamzwasserman

The article misses three critical points:

1. Conflates consciousness with "thinking" - LLMs may process information effectively without being conscious, but the article treats these as the same phenomenon

2. Ignores the cerebellum cases - We have documented cases of humans leading normal lives with little to no brain beyond a cerebellum, which contradicts simplistic "brain = deep learning" equivalences

3. Most damning: When you apply these exact same techniques to anything OTHER than language, the results are mediocre. Video generation still can't figure out basic physics (glass bouncing instead of shattering, ropes defying physics). Computer vision has been worked on since the 1960s - far longer than LLMs - yet it's nowhere near achieving what looks like "understanding."

The timeline is the smoking gun: vision had decades of head start, yet LLMs leapfrogged it in just a few years. That strongly suggests the "magic" is in language itself (which has been proven to be fractal and already heavily compressed/structured by human cognition) - NOT in the neural architecture. We're not teaching machines to think.

We're teaching them to navigate a pre-existing map that was already built.

KoolKat23

1. Consciousness itself is probably just an illusion, a phenomena/name of something that occurs when you bunch thinking together. Think of this objectively and base it on what we know of the brain. It literally is working off of what hardware we have, there's no magic.

2. That's just a well adapted neural network (I suspect more brain is left than you let on). Multimodal model making the most of its limited compute and whatever gpio it has.

3. Humans navigate a pre-existing map that is already built. We can't understand things in other dimensions and need to abstract this. We're mediocre at computation.

I know there's people that like to think humans should always be special.

estearum

> Consciousness itself is probably just an illusion

This is a major cop-out. The very concept of "illusion" implies a consciousness (a thing that can be illuded).

I think you've maybe heard that sense of self is an illusion and you're mistakenly applying that to consciousness, which is quite literally the only thing in the universe we can be certain is not an illusion. The existence of one's own consciousness is the only thing they cannot possibly be illuded about (note: the contents of said consciousness are fully up for grabs)

kenjackson

"vision had decades of head start, yet LLMs leapfrogged it in just a few years."

From an evolutionary perspective though vision had millions of years head start over written language. Additionally, almost all animals have quite good vision mechanisms, but very few do any written communication. Behaviors that map to intelligence don't emerge concurrently. It may well be there are different forms of signals/sensors/mechanical skills that contribute to emergence of different intelligences.

It really feels more and more like we should recast AGI as Artificial Human Intelligence Likeness (AHIL).

adamzwasserman

From a terminology point of view, I absolutely agree. Human-likeness is what most people mean when they talk about AGI. Calling it what it is would clarify a lot of the discussions around it.

However I am clear that I do not believe that this will ever happen, and I see no evidence to convince that that there is even a possibility that it will.

I think that Wittgenstein had it right when he said: "If a lion could speak, we could not understand him."

andoando

>I think that Wittgenstein had it right when he said: "If a lion could speak, we could not understand him."

Why would we not? We live in the same physical world and encounter the same problems.

Retric

This is all really arbitrary metrics across such wildly different fields. IMO LLMs are where computer vision was 20+ years ago in terms of real world accuracy. Other people feel LLMs offer far more value to the economy etc.

adamzwasserman

I understand the temptation to compare LLMs and computer vision, but I think it’s misleading to equate generative AI with feature-identification or descriptive AI systems like those in early computer vision. LLMs, which focus on generating human-like text and reasoning across diverse contexts, operate in a fundamentally different domain than descriptive AI, which primarily extracts patterns or features from data, like early vision systems did for images.

Comparing their 'real-world accuracy' oversimplifies their distinct goals and applications. While LLMs drive economic value through versatility in language tasks, their maturity shouldn’t be measured against the same metrics as descriptive systems from decades ago.

aucisson_masque

> 2. Ignores the cerebellum cases - We have documented cases of humans leading normal lives with little to no brain beyond a cerebellum, which contradicts simplistic "brain = deep learning" equivalences

I went to look for it on Google but couldn't find much. Could you provide a link or something to learn more about ?

I found numerous cases of people living without cerebellum but I fail to see how it would justify your reasoning.

adamzwasserman

jdadj

"We have documented cases of humans leading normal lives with little to no brain beyond a cerebellum" -- I take this to mean that these are humans that have a cerebellum but not much else.

Your npr.org link talks about the opposite -- regular brain, but no cerebellum.

Your irishtimes.com link talks about cerebrum, which is not the same as cerebellum.

Your biology.stackexchange.com link talks about Cerebral Cortex, which is also not the same as cerebellum.

And the cbc.ca link does not contain the string "cere" on the page.

bonsai_spool

Your first example is someone without a cerebellum which is not like the others.

The other examples are people with compressed neural tissue but that is not the same as never having the tissue.

A being with only a cerebellum could not behave like a human.

null

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penteract

There's a whole paragraph in the article which says basically the same as your point 3 ( "glass bouncing, instead of shattering, and ropes defying physics" is literally a quote from the article). I don't see how you can claim the article missed it.

adamzwasserman

the article misses the significance of it.

eloisant

This is why I'm very skeptical about the "Nobel prize level" claims. To win a Nobel prize you would have to produce something completely new. LLM will probably be able to reach a Ph.D. level of understanding existing research, but bringing something new is a different matter.

KoolKat23

Given a random prompt, the overall probability of seeing a specific output string is almost zero, since there are astronomically many possible token sequences.

The same goes for humans. Most awards are built on novel research built on pre-existing works. This a LLM is capable of doing.

adamzwasserman

LLMs do not understand anything.

They have a very complex multidimensional "probability table" (more correctly a compressed geometric representation of token relationships) that they use to string together tokens (which have no semantic meaning), which then get converted to words that have semantic meaning to US, but not to the machine.

tomfly

Exactly. It’s been stated for a long time, before llms. For instance this paper https://home.csulb.edu/~cwallis/382/readings/482/searle.mind... Describes a translator who doesn’t know the language.

KoolKat23

In abstract we do the exact same thing

PaulDavisThe1st

> Conflates consciousness with "thinking"

I don't see it. Got a quote that demonstrates this?

thechao

I'm not really onboard with the whole LLM's-are-conscious thing. OTOH, I am totally onboard with the whole "homo sapiens exterminated every other intelligent hominid and maybe — just maybe — we're not very nice to other intelligences". So, I try not to let my inborn genetic predisposition to exterminate other intelligence pseudo-hominids color my opinions too much.

adamzwasserman

It's a dog eat dog world for sure. It does in fact seem that a part of intelligence is using it to compete ruthlessly with other intelligences.

adamzwasserman

Exactly. Notable by its absence.

nearbuy

Can you explain #2? What does the part of the brain that's primarily for balance and motor control tell us about deep learning?

adamzwasserman

My mistake thx. I meant "despite having no, or close to no, brain beyond a cerebellum"

nearbuy

Are there any cases like that? I've never heard of someone functioning normally with little or no brain beyond a cerebellum.

bjourne

> 1. Conflates consciousness with "thinking" - LLMs may process information effectively without being conscious, but the article treats these as the same phenomenon

There is NO WAY you can define "consciousness" in such a non-tautological, non-circular way that it includes all humans but excludes all LLMs.

adamzwasserman

You could have stopped here: "There is NO WAY you can define "consciousness"

beeflet

Why not? Consciousness is a state of self-awareness.

null

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almosthere

Well, I think because we know how the code is written, in the sense that humans quite literally wrote the code for it - it's definitely not thinking, and it is literally doing what we asked, based on the data we gave it. It is specifically executing code we thought of. The output of course, we had no flying idea it would work this well.

But it is not sentient. It has no idea of a self or anything like that. If it makes people believe that it does, it is because we have written so much lore about it in the training data.

kakapo5672

It's not accurate to say we "wrote the code for it". AI isn't built like normal software. Nowhere inside an AI will you find lines of code that say If X Then Y, and so on.

Rather, these models are literally grown during the training phase. And all the intelligence emerges from that growth. That's what makes them a black box and extremely difficult to penetrate. No one can say exactly how they work inside for a given problem.

gf000

Well, unless you believe in some spiritual, non-physical aspect of consciousness, we could probably agree that human intelligence is Turing-complete (with a slightly sloppy use of terms).

So any other Turing-complete model can emulate it, including a computer. We can even randomly generate Turing machines, as they are just data. Now imagine we are extremely lucky and happen to end up with a super-intelligent program which through the mediums it can communicate (it could be simply text-based but a 2D video with audio is no different for my perspective) can't be differentiated from a human being.

Would you consider it sentient?

Now replace the random generation with, say, a back propagation algorithm. If it's sufficiently large, don't you think it's indifferent from the former case - that is, novel qualities could emerge?

With that said, I don't think that current LLMs are anywhere close to this category, but I just don't think this your reasoning is sound.

myrmidon

> Would you consider it sentient?

Absolutely.

If you simulated a human brain by the atom, would you think the resulting construct would NOT be? What would be missing?

I think consciousness is simply an emergent property of our nervous system, but in order to express itself "language" is obviously needed and thus requires lots of complexity (more than what we typically see in animals or computer systems until recently).

prmph

> If you simulated a human brain by the atom,

That is what we don't know is possible. You don't even know what physics or particles are as yet undiscovered. And from what we even know currently, atoms are too coarse to form the basis of such "cloning"

And, my viewpoint is that, even if this were possible, just because you simulated a brain atom by atom, does not mean you have a consciousness. If it is the arrangement of matter that gives rise to consciousness, then would that new consciousness be the same person or not?

If you have a basis for answering that question, let's hear it.

almosthere

We used to say "if you put a million monkeys on typewriters you would eventually get shakespear" and no one would ever say that anymore, because now we can literally write shakespear with an LLM.

And the monkey strategy has been 100% dismissed as shit..

We know how to deploy monkeys on typewriters, but we don't know what they'll type.

We know how to deploy transformers to train and inference a model, but we don't know what they'll type.

We DON'T know how a thinking human (or animal) brain works..

Do you see the difference.

nearbuy

The monkeys on typewriters saying is just a colorful way of saying that an infinite random sequence will contain all finite sequences somewhere within it. Which is true. But I don't see what infinite random sequences have to do with LLMs or human thinking.

> Do you see the difference

No? I'm not sure what you're getting at.

procaryote

To be fair, we also trained the LLM on (among other things) shakespeare, and adjusted the weights so that generating shakespeare would be more likely after that training.

We don't claim a JPEG can paint great art, even though certain jpegs do.

prmph

There are many aspects to this that people like yourself miss, but I think we need satisfactory answers to them (or at least rigorous explorations of them) before we can make headway in these sorts of discussion.

Imagine we assume that A.I. could be conscious. What would be the identity/scope of that consciousness. To understand what I'm driving at, let's make an analogy to humans. Our consciousness is scoped to our bodies. We see through sense organ, and our brain, which process these signals, is located in a specific point in space. But we still do not know how consciousness arises in the brain and is bound to the body.

If you equate computation of sufficient complexity to consciousness, then the question arises: what exactly about computation would prodcuce consciousness? If we perform the same computation on a different substrate, would that then be the same consciousness, or a copy of the original? If it would not be the same consciousness, then just what give consciousness its identity?

I believe you would find it ridiculous to say that just because we are performing the computation on this chip, therefore the identity of the resulting consciousness is scoped to this chip.

tsimionescu

This all sounds very irrelevant. Consciousness is clearly tied to specific parts of a substrate. My consciousness doesn't change when a hair falls off my head, nor when I cut my fingernails. But it does change in some way if you were to cut the tip of my finger, or if I take a hormone pill.

Similarly, if we can compute consciousness on a chip, then the chip obviously contains that consciousness. You can experimentally determine to what extent this is true: for example, you can experimentally check if increasing the clock frequency of said chip alters the consciousness that it is computing. Or if changing the thermal paste that attaches it to its cooler does so. I don't know what the results of these experiments would be, but they would be quite clearly determined.

Of course, there would certainly be some scale, and at some point it becomes semantics. The same is true with human consciousness: some aspects of the body are more tightly coupled to consciousness than others; if you cut my hand, my consciousness will change more than if you cut a small piece of my bowel, but less than if you cut out a large piece of my brain. At what point do you draw the line and say "consciousness exists in the brain but not the hands"? It's all arbitrary to some extent. Even worse, say I use a journal where I write down some of my most cherished thoughts, and say that I am quite forgetful and I often go through this journal to remind myself of various thoughts before taking a decision. Would it not then be fair to say that the journal itself contains a part of my consciousness? After all, if someone were to tamper with it in subtle enough ways, they would certainly be able to influence my thought process, more so than even cutting off one of my hands, wouldn't they?

gf000

> Imagine we assume that A.I. could be conscious. What would be the identity/scope of that consciousness

Well, first I would ask whether this question makes sense in the first place. Does consciousness have a scope? Does consciousness even exist? Or is that more of a name attributed to some pattern we recognize in our own way of thinking (but may not be universal)?

Also, would a person missing an arm, but having a robot arm they can control have their consciousness' "scope" extended to it? Given that people have phantom pains, does a physical body even needed to consider it your part?

og_kalu

We do not write the code that makes it do what it does. We write the code that trains it to figure out how to do what it does. There's a big difference.

almosthere

The code that builds the models and performance inference from it is code we have written. The data in the model is obviously the big trick. But what I'm saying is that if you run inference, that alone does not give it super-powers over your computer. You can write some agentic framework where it WOULD have power over your computer, but that's not what I'm referring to.

It's not a living thing inside the computer, it's just the inference building text token by token using probabilities based on the pre-computed model.

gf000

> It's not a living thing inside the computer, it's just the inference building text token by token using probabilities based on the pre-computed model.

Sure, and humans are just biochemical reactions moving muscles as their interface with the physical word.

I think the model of operation is not a good criticism, but please see my reply to the root comment in this thread where I detail my thoughts a bit.

hackinthebochs

This is a bad take. We didn't write the model, we wrote an algorithm that searches the space of models that conform to some high level constraints as specified by the stacked transformer architecture. But stacked transformers are a very general computational paradigm. The training aspect converges the parameters to a specific model that well reproduces the training data. But the computational circuits the model picks out are discovered, not programmed. The emergent structures realize new computational dynamics that we are mostly blind to. We are not the programmers of these models, rather we are their incubators.

As far as sentience is concerned, we can't say they aren't sentient because we don't know the computational structures these models realize, nor do we know the computational structures required for sentience.

og_kalu

You cannot say, 'we know it's not thinking because we wrote the code' when the inference 'code' we wrote amounts to, 'Hey, just do whatever you figured out during training okay'.

'Power over your computer', all that is orthogonal to the point. A human brain without a functioning body would still be thinking.

mbesto

I think the discrepancy is this:

1. We trained it on a fraction of the world's information (e.g. text and media that is explicitly online)

2. It carries all of the biases us humans have and worse the biases that are present in the information we chose to explicitly share online (which may or may not be different to the experiences humans have in every day life)

nix0n

> It carries all of the biases us humans have and worse the biases that are present in the information we chose to explicitly share online

This is going to be a huge problem. Most people assume computers are unbiased and rational, and increasing use of AI will lead to more and larger decisions being made by AI.

abakker

and then the code to give it context. AFAIU, there is a lot of post training "setup" in the context and variables to get the trained model to "behave as we instruct it to"

Am I wrong about this?

mirekrusin

Now convince us that you’re sentient and not just regurgitating what you’ve heard and seen in your life.

embedding-shape

By what definition of "sentience"? Wikipedia claims "Sentience is the ability to experience feelings and sensations" as an opening statement, which I think would be trivial depending again on your definition of "experience" and "sensations". Can a LLM hooked up to sensor events be considered to "experience sensations"? I could see arguments both ways for that.

vidarh

I have no way of measuring whether or not you experience feelings and sensations, or are just regurgitating statements to convince me of that.

The only basis I have for assuming you are sentient according to that definition is trust in your self-reports.

null

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Llamamoe

This is probably true. But the truth is we have absolutely no idea what sentience is and what gives rise to it. We cannot identify why humans have it rather than just being complex biological machines, or whether and why other animals do. We have no idea what the rules or, nevermind how and why they would or wouldn't apply to AI.

mentos

What’s crazy to me is the mechanism of pleasure or pain. I can understand that with enough complexity we can give rise to sentience but what does it take to achieve sensation?

dontwearitout

This is the "hard problem of consciousness". It's more important than ever as machines begin to act more like humans, but my takeaway is we have no idea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness

vidarh

Input is input. There's no reason why we should assume that a data source from embodiment is any different to any other data source.

spicyusername

A body

mentos

I’d say it’s possible to experience mental anguish/worry without the body participating. Solely a cognitive pain from consternation.

exe34

How does a body know what's going on? Would you say it has any input devices?

kbrkbr

Can you tell me how you understand that?

Because I sincerely do not. I have frankly no idea how sentience arises from non sentience. But it's a topic that really interests me.

mentos

We have examples of non sentience everywhere already with animals. And then an example of sentience with humans. So if you diff our brains the difference lies within a module in our prefrontal cortex. It’s a black box of logic but I can ‘understand’ or be willing to accept that it’s owed to ‘just’ more grey matter adding the self awareness to the rest of the system.

But to me the big mystery is how animals have sensation at all to begin with. What gives rise to that is a greater mystery to me personally.

There are examples of people who have no ability to feel pain yet are still able to think. Now I wonder if they ever experience mental anguish.

PaulDavisThe1st

> But it is not sentient. It has no idea of a self or anything like that.

Who stated that sentience or sense of self is a part of thinking?

marstall

Unless the idea of us having a thinking self is just something that comes out of our mouth, an artifact of language. In which case we are not that different - in the end we all came from mere atoms, after all!

yalogin

I don't see how we make the jump from current LLMs to AGI. May be it's my limited understanding of the research but current LLMs seem to not have any properties that indicate AGI. Would love to get thoughts from someone that understands it

beeflet

what properties are you looking for?

ivraatiems

The author searches for a midpoint between "AIs are useless and do not actually think" and "AIs think like humans," but to me it seems almost trivially true that both are possible.

What I mean by that is that I think there is a good chance that LLMs are similar to a subsystem of human thinking. They are great at pattern recognition and prediction, which is a huge part of cognition. What they are not is conscious, or possessed of subjective experience in any measurable way.

LLMs are like the part of your brain that sees something and maps it into a concept for you. I recently watched a video on the creation of AlexNet [0], one of the first wildly successful image-processing models. One of the impressive things about it is how it moves up the hierarchy from very basic patterns in images to more abstract ones (e. g. these two images' pixels might not be at all the same, but they both eventually map to a pattern for 'elephant').

It's perfectly reasonable to imagine that our brains do something similar. You see a cat, in some context, and your brain maps it to the concept of 'cat', so you know, 'that's a cat'. What's missing is a) self-motivated, goal-directed action based on that knowledge, and b) a broader context for the world where these concepts not only map to each other, but feed into a sense of self and world and its distinctions whereby one can say: "I am here, and looking at a cat."

It's possible those latter two parts can be solved, or approximated, by an LLM, but I am skeptical. I think LLMs represent a huge leap in technology which is simultaneously cooler than anyone would have imagined a decade ago, and less impressive than pretty much everyone wants you to believe when it comes to how much money we should pour into the companies that make them.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZDiGooFs54

vidarh

> or possessed of subjective experience in any measurable way

We don't know how to measure subjective experience in other people, even, other than via self-reporting, so this is a meaningless statement. Of course we don't know whether they are, and of course we can't measure it.

I also don't know for sure whether or not you are "possessed of subjective experience" as I can't measure it.

> What they are not is conscious

And this is equally meaningless without your definition of "conscious".

> It's possible those latter two parts can be solved, or approximated, by an LLM, but I am skeptical.

Unless we can find indications that humans can exceed the Turing computable - something we as of yet have no indication is even theoretically possible - there is no rational reason to think it can't.

ivraatiems

> Unless we can find indications that humans can exceed the Turing computable - something we as of yet have no indication is even theoretically possible - there is no rational reason to think it can't.

But doesn't this rely on the same thing you suggest we don't have, which is a working and definable definition of consciousness?

I think a lot of the 'well, we can't define consciousness so we don't know what it is so it's worthless to think about' argument - not only from you but from others - is hiding the ball. The heuristic, human consideration of whether something is conscious is an okay approximation so long as we avoid the trap of 'well, it has natural language, so it must be conscious.'

There's a huge challenge in the way LLMs can seem like they are speaking out of intellect and not just pattern predicting, but there's very little meaningful argument that they are actually thinking in any way similarly to what you or I do in writing these comments. The fact that we don't have a perfect, rigorous definition, and tend to rely on 'I know it when I see it,' does not mean LLMs do have it or that it will be trivial to get to them.

All that is to say that when you say:

> I also don't know for sure whether or not you are "possessed of subjective experience" as I can't measure it.

"Knowing for sure" is not required. A reasonable suspicion one way or the other based on experience is a good place to start. I also identified two specific things LLMs don't do - they are not self-motivated or goal-directed without prompting, and there is no evidence they possess a sense of self, even with the challenge of lack of definition that we face.

nearbuy

> But doesn't this rely on the same thing you suggest we don't have, which is a working and definable definition of consciousness?

No, it's like saying we have no indication that humans have psychic powers and can levitate objects with their minds. The commenter is saying no human has ever demonstrated the ability to figure things out that aren't Turing computable and we have no reason to suspect this ability is even theoretically possible (for anything, human or otherwise).

vidarh

No, it rests on computability, Turing equivalence, and the total absence of both any kind of evidence to suggest we can exceed the Turing computable, and the lack of even a theoretical framework for what that would mean.

Without that any limitations borne out of what LLMs don't currently do are irrelevant.

prmph

> I also don't know for sure whether or not you are "possessed of subjective experience" as I can't measure it.

Then why make an argument based on what you do not know?

vidarh

My point exactly. The person I replied to did just that.

nprateem

Anyone who believes an algorithm could be conscious needs to take mushrooms.

visarga

Consider the river metaphor: water carves the banks, banks channel the water. At any moment water and banks have the same shape.

Model/algorithm is the banks. Water could be the experiences. Maybe the algorithm does not have consciousness, but it is part of it.

They co-create each other. They are part of a recursive loop which cannot be explained statically, or part by part in isolation.

levitatorius

Yes! If algorithm is conscious (without being alive) then the eaten magic mushroom is also very conscious, judged by it's effect on the subject.

vidarh

Unless you can show me you can exceed the Turing computable, there is no reason to consider you any more than an algorithm.

FloorEgg

I think LLMs are conscious just in a very limited way. I think consciousness is tightly coupled to intelligence.

If I had to guess, the current leading LLMs consciousness is most comparable to a small fish, with a conscious lifespan of a few seconds to a few minutes. Instead of perceiving water, nutrient gradients, light, heat, etc. it's perceiving tokens. It's conscious, but it's consciousness is so foreign to us it doesn't seem like consciousness. In the same way to an amoeba is conscious or a blade of grass is conscious but very different kind than we experience. I suspect LLMs are a new type of consciousness that's probably more different from ours than most if not all known forms of life.

I suspect the biggest change that would bring LLM consciousness closer to us would be some for of continuous learning/model updating.

Until then, even with RAG, and other clever teghniques I consider these models as having this really foreign slices of consciousness where they "feel" tokens and "act" out tokens, and they have perception, but their perception of the tokens is nothing like ours.

If one looks closely at simple organisms with simple sensory organs and nervous systems its hard not to see some parallels. It's just that the shape of consciousness is extremely different than any life form. (perception bandwidth, ability to act, temporality, etc)

Karl friston free energy principle gives a really interesting perspective on this I think.

procaryote

> I think LLMs are conscious just in a very limited way. I think consciousness is tightly coupled to intelligence.

Why?

FloorEgg

I already answered under the other comment asking me why and if your curious I suggest looking for it.

Very short answer is Karl Friston's free energy pricniple

wry_discontent

What makes you think consciousness is tightly coupled to intelligence?

FloorEgg

Karl Friston's free energy principle is probably roughly 80% of my reasons to think they're coupled. The rest comes from studying integrated information theories, architecture of brains and nervous systems and neutral nets, more broadly information theory, and a long tail of other scientific concepts (particle physics, chemistry, biology, evolution, emergence, etc...)

XorNot

It's hardly an unreasonable supposition: the one definitely conscious entities we know of are also the apex intelligence of the planet.

To put it another way: lots of things are conscious, but humans are definitely the most conscious beings on Earth.

heresie-dabord

> a midpoint between "AIs are useless and do not actually think" and "AIs think like humans"

LLMs (AIs) are not useless. But they do not actually think. What is trivially true is that they do not actually need to think. (As far as the Turing Test, Eliza patients, and VC investors are concerned, the point has been proven.)

If the technology is helping us write text and code, it is by definition useful.

> In 2003, the machine-learning researcher Eric B. Baum published a book called “What Is Thought?” [...] The gist of Baum’s argument is that understanding is compression, and compression is understanding.

This is incomplete. Compression is optimisation, optimisation may resemble understanding, but understanding is being able to verify that a proposition (compressed rule or assertion) is true or false or even computable.

> —but, in my view, this is the very reason these models have become increasingly intelligent.

They have not become more intelligent. The training process may improve, the vetting of the data improved, the performance may improve, but the resemblance to understanding only occurs when the answers are provably correct. In this sense, these tools work in support of (are therefore part of) human thinking.

The Stochastic Parrot is not dead, it's just making you think it is pining for the fjords.

crazygringo

> But they do not actually think.

I'm so baffled when I see this being blindly asserted.

With the reasoning models, you can literally watch their thought process. You can see them pattern-match to determine a strategy to attack a problem, go through it piece-by-piece, revisit assumptions, reformulate strategy, and then consolidate findings to produce a final result.

If that's not thinking, I literally don't know what is. It's the same process I watch my own brain use to figure something out.

So I have to ask you: when you claim they don't think -- what are you basing this on? What, for you, is involved in thinking that the kind of process I've just described is missing? Because I genuinely don't know what needs to be added here for it to become "thinking".

Terr_

> I'm so baffled when I see this being blindly asserted. With the reasoning models, you can literally watch their thought process.

Not true, you are falling for a very classic (prehistoric, even) human illusion known as experiencing a story:

1. There is a story-like document being extruded out of a machine humans explicitly designed for generating documents, and which humans trained on a bajillion stories humans already made.

2. When you "talk" to a chatbot, that is an iterative build of a (remote, hidden) story document, where one of the characters is adopting your text-input and the other's dialogue is being "performed" at you.

3. The "reasoning" in newer versions is just the "internal monologue" of a film noir detective character, and equally as fictional as anything that character "says out loud" to the (fictional) smokin-hot client who sashayed the (fictional) rent-overdue office bearing your (real) query on its (fictional) lips.

> If that's not thinking, I literally don't know what is.

All sorts of algorithms can achieve useful outcomes with "that made sense to me" flows, but that doesn't mean we automatically consider them to be capital-T Thinking.

> So I have to ask you: when you claim they don't think -- what are you basing this on?

Consider the following document from an unknown source, and the "chain of reasoning" and "thinking" that your human brain perceives when encountering it:

    My name is Robot Robbie.
    That high-carbon steel gear looks delicious. 
    Too much carbon is bad, but that isn't true here.
    I must ask before taking.    
    "Give me the gear, please."
    Now I have the gear.
    It would be even better with fresh manure.
    Now to find a cow, because cows make manure.
Now whose reasoning/thinking is going on? Can you point to the mind that enjoys steel and manure? Is it in the room with us right now? :P

In other words, the reasoning is illusory. Even if we accept that the unknown author is a thinking intelligence for the sake of argument... it doesn't tell you what the author's thinking.

baq

Brains are pretrained models, change my mind. (Not LLMs obviously, to be perfectly clear)

shadyKeystrokes

By that reasoning all that is missing is what a human brings as "stimuli" to review, refine and reevaluate as complete.

ivraatiems

I don't think that's quite the only thing missing, I also discussed the idea of a sense of self. But even if that was all there was, it's a pretty big "but".

thomastjeffery

I think the most descriptive title I could give an LLM is "bias". An LLM is not "biased", it is bias; or at the very least, it's a good imitation of the system of human thinking/perception that we call bias.

An LLM is a noise generator. It generates tokens without logic, arithmetic, or any "reason" whatsoever. The noise that an LLM generates is not truly random. Instead, the LLM is biased to generate familiar noise. The LLM itself is nothing more than a model of token familiarity. Nothing about that model can tell you why some tokens are more familiar with others, just like an accounting spreadsheet can't tell you why it contains a list of charges and a summation next to the word "total". It could just as easily contain the same kind of data with an entirely different purpose.

What an LLM models is written human text. Should we really expect to not be surprised by the power and versatility of human-written text?

---

It's clear that these statistical models are very good at thoughtless tasks, like perception and hallucination. It's also clear that they are very bad at thoughtful tasks like logic and arithmetic - the things that traditional software is made of. What no one has really managed to figure out is how to bridge that gap.

esafak

LLMs today are great coders. Most humans are worse.

inglor_cz

LLMs ingested a lot of high-quality code during their training, plus LLMs being capable of programming is a huge commercial use case, so no wonder that they are good at coding.

My experience, though, is that they aren't good at defining the task to be coded, or thinking about some unexpected side-effects. Code that will be left for them to develop freely will likely become bloated quite fast.

mrob

I don't believe LLMs can be conscious during inference because LLM inference is just repeated evaluation of a deterministic [0] pure function. It takes a list of tokens and outputs a set of token probabilities. Any randomness is part of the sampler that selects a token based on the generated probabilities, not the LLM itself.

There is no internal state that persists between tokens [1], so there can be no continuity of consciousness. If it's "alive" in some way it's effectively killed after each token and replaced by a new lifeform. I don't see how consciousness can exist without possibility of change over time. The input tokens (context) can't be enough to give it consciousness because it has no way of knowing if they were generated by itself or by a third party. The sampler mechanism guarantees this: it's always possible that an unlikely token could have been selected by the sampler, so to detect "thought tampering" it would have to simulate itself evaluating all possible partial contexts. Even this takes unreasonable amounts of compute, but it's actually worse because the introspection process would also affect the probabilities generated, so it would have to simulate itself simulating itself, and so on recursively without bound.

It's conceivable that LLMs are conscious during training, but in that case the final weights are effectively its dead body, and inference is like Luigi Galvani poking the frog's legs with electrodes and watching them twitch.

[0] Assuming no race conditions in parallel implementations. llama.cpp is deterministic.

[1] Excluding caching, which is only a speed optimization and doesn't affect results.

lbrandy

I have no idea how you can assert what is necessary/sufficient for consciousness in this way. Your comment reads like you believe you understand consciousness far more than I believe anyone actually does.

mrob

I believe consciousness needs some kind of mutable internal state because otherwise literally everything is conscious, which makes the concept useless. A rock "computes" a path to fall when you drop it but I don't believe rocks are conscious. Panpsychism is not a common belief.

jdauriemma

I don't think the author is saying that LLMs are conscious or alive.