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US F-16s lose out as Thai Air Force seals US$600M deal for Swedish Gripen jets

sureglymop

Switzerland also has an open fixed-price deal for 36 F-35s.

The US are trying to alter the deal and raise the price to ~1 billion USD more than agreed to.

I wish Switzerland would do the same and cancel the deal.

On top of that Switzerland should go a step further and impose a tax on gold exported to the united states if they don't stop with their silly little 39% tariffs on imported Swiss goods. Just ridiculous and embarrassing to sever long running trade relationships out of ignorance.

mcmcmc

There is no such thing as a tariff on exports. Tariffs are specifically an import tax intended to increase domestic demand for domestically produced goods by shifting it away from imported goods

mrandish

> There is no such thing as a tariff on exports.

That's correct, or at least it was until this week. Did you happen to see the recent announcement where NVidia and AMD are now apparently required to pay 15% of the revenue from GPUs exported to China to the U.S. government? This is apparently GPUs which were, prior to this new 15% payment, "too harmful to our national security" to export to China.

Frankly, I only saw the headlines and haven't looked into it myself yet - mostly because it makes my head hurt trying to even tally the laws, policies and trade agreements doing this would probably violate. So, I'm admittedly unclear on the details but it sure sounds like an "export tariff".

blktiger

I think he meant export taxes or export duties.

refulgentis

I'm American and kinda stunned how little salience the issue has. Please punish us as much as possible.

It feel like we're gonna full on Erdogan inflation speed run out of this. i.e. multiple years of lunacy, coupled to forced interest rate decreases that make the inflation worse. I have no idea why US markets rallied earlier in the week on the idea they'd be lowered. We're full on in "well, if Herr Daddy says he fixed it, we can all say it's fixed, in fact it'd be damaging not to" territory.

Edit: also, for the historians, it's absolutely stunning how little power the legal system has. This is obviously illegal, and yet, many months will proceed by the time it gets judge, appealed, and then a 65/35 shot at the supreme court saying "well, gee, are we sure the constitution was against this instance of being a king?"

dragonwriter

> Edit: also, for the historians, it's absolutely stunning how little power the legal system has.

For historians (and political scientists, for similar reasons), it is not stunning at all. It might be stunning for other people, but people who study history are likely to be very aware that the legal system isn’t magic and is ultimately only a notional agreement about what society will tolerate which has only the weight that people refusing to tolerate violations gives it.

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petcat

> I'm American and kinda stunned how little salience the issue has. Please punish us as much as possible.

The EU has already agreed to one of the most lopsided trade deals in history as a result of all of this. It's a business arrangement just like any other, and at this point it's pretty clear where the leverage is. It's not with the EU.

ants_everywhere

The EU recognized that the US placed a large tax on American consumers and saw no reason to place a similar tax on European consumers.

They'll just ramp up economic production and turn toward China like we're seeing with BYD penetration.

refulgentis

Let's accept that.

Then my mind turns to a couple things.

America was founded on the intellectual rejection of one man taxes on imports.

Demonstrations of power are not an end unto themselves, they are theater and province of the weak minded.

verdverm

A lot of countries are learning lessons from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the world's reaponses

pimlottc

What do you mean specifically here?

glial

“Selling the F-35, or American systems for that matter, will certainly become more complicated for American companies,” said Gesine Weber, a Paris-based fellow at transatlantic think tank German Marshall Fund.

“An important factor in the purchase of the F-35 by European governments was the idea that European defense would be built on a transatlantic basis in terms of strategy, institutions and capabilities,” she said, adding that “the Trump administration is in the process of dissolving the transatlantic link, and the purchase of American systems will therefore no longer have any added value for Europeans.”

“If you keep punching your allies in the face, eventually they’re going to stop wanting to buy weapons from you,” said a Western European defense official, granted anonymity to discuss the matter candidly. “Right now we have limited options outside of U.S. platforms, but in the long run? That could change in the coming decades if this combativeness keeps up.”

[1] https://www.politico.eu/article/punching-allies-in-the-face-...

mrits

“Could change” “ coming decades” what a statement

varispeed

US has become an unreliable ally. Siding with war criminal, lack of intelligence services response, potential leaks to the hostile states and ability to ground planes and other weapons remotely, means US equipment has become a non-starter.

See what a coincidence that Trump becomes a president and few months later Patriots can't intercept Russian missiles.

alephnerd

He's implying the Gripen deal was a result of Trump.

In reality, the US-Thailand relationship has been dead since the Junta took over in Thailand, and for domestic brownie points we decided to make an example out of them and Cambodia for democratic backsliding during the Biden admin [3]

Edit: cannot reply below (@Dang am I being rate limited)

The US has consistently rejected Thailand's F-35 request under the Biden admin [0][1]. If forced to buy a 4th gen jet, may as well buy the cheapest option on the market, which is the Gripen, as they have been using the Gripen for decades [2].

European affairs have little to do with affairs in Asia.

[0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/thailand-...

[1] - https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/thailand-f35-02162022...

[2] - https://www.reuters.com/article/business/autos-transportatio...

[3] - https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/turbulent-thailand/thailand...

culi

But Thailand is far from alone in this move away from US weapons. Spain cancelled their bid for F-35s and Switzerland is looking into doing the same. Denmark recently expressed regret over their purchase of F-35s. Portugal and Canada also both lost interest in American F-35s recently.

It could just be tariff backlash—aircraft have historically been the US' largest export. But I do wonder if the recent tests of US military tech in Russia/Iran had any hand in this

impossiblefork

The advantage of the Gripen isn't that it's cheap. The F-16 is cheaper.

But Gripen has Meteor and can fly really well. Now, I'm a Swede, but there are claims of practical experiments in Norway trying out old some Gripen planes vs F-15C and F-16 have shown that the Gripen is simply better at air-to-air stuff.

The F-16 is obviously bigger though, so if you want to bomb somebody a lot and whoever that is doesn't have anything to put up against it then maybe it's reasonable to get one of those instead, but I don't think that's a problem Thailand has. I think they want an air force that can challenge another air force if required.

It's also nice since one can actually fly with it without breaking the bank.

bamboozled

The USA has left Ukraine in the lurch after signing the Budapest memorandum. They should’ve kept their Nukes and Russia wouldn’t have been able to invade and steal all their land, kidnap and auction off children , commit massacres etc.

Because America is currently an untrustworthy ally who is 100% American first and thinks deploying the military on home soil and applying harsh tariffs to its allies is more important than anything else, it’s best to countries no longer rely on the USA for basically anything. That will probably mean the end of the USD as a global reserve currency at some point too. Which is fine because it’s what the majority of voting Americans wanted. Isolationist, American first policies.

Go look at how Zelensky was treated in the interview with Trump and Vance and how the literal red carpet is rolled out for Putin and other world leaders with a brain see that and say, no thanks…

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dh2022

Re: Ukraine defending itself with the nukes it gave up as part of Budapest memorandum - the nuclear code required to activate the warheads never left Moscow.

Maybe the Ukrainians could have tinkered with these warheads and find out how to enable them.... but that is quite risky.

fabian2k

No idea what the reasons are in this specific case, but these kinds of military procurements are inherently tied to the political side.

Planes like this quickly become paperweights if you can't get replacements parts, support and ammunition. And most buyers won't be able to get significant parts of the construction into their countries. So you must trust the political stability of the country you're buying from, that they're still your friend in a decade or a few and support your planes.

Trump and his administration are anything but reliable partners.

alephnerd

Thailand wanted the F-35 [0], but the we will not give it to them given how close the Thai government has become to China after the junta [1].

Their junta and King wants to keep Thailand as an authoritarian illiberal democracy. The Biden admin on the other hand strongly opposed democratic backsliding in Thailand [2]

As a result, they - like Cambodia - decided to flip to China.

[0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/thailand-...

[1] - https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/17/china-thailand-submarin...

[2] - https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/turbulent-thailand/thailand...

axus

Interesting that Cambodia is the recent adversary they want the jets for. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cambodia%E2%80%93Thailand...

My brief research says Cambodia was using old Soviet and Chinese stuff, with some UAV support.

alephnerd

Yep! They are!

But in the 2010s we helped Cambodia transition into a democracy, build an independent press (a number of Cambodian journalists used to be HN users back in the day), invest in rural healthcare expansion, and even sponsored Hun Sen's son to study in the US.

The Cambodian leadership didn't want any of that. They wanted to continue to rule as an oligarchy, and Western development funds came with oversight requirements and American firms followed the FCPA.

On the other hand, Chinese vendors were fine paying bribes to leadership in Cambodia and ignoring rising criminality (it was a win-win for China as well - they were able to "convince" organized crime to leave China).

China's elite centric approach [0][1] to foreign relations is better than grassroots democracy promotion that a subset of Americans believed in.

If Cambodia or Serbia or Thailand's leadership want to remain a dictatorship or oligarchy, let them. It's not our problem. Our commitment to democracy should be within our borders. Let other countries be dictatorships or democracies as long as they align with our interests. This is what China and Russia does.

[0] - https://www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/iseas-perspec...

[1] - https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/lost-translati...

Hikikomori

I for one welcome our new Chinese overloads.

alephnerd

It's a side effect of democracy promotion.

We the US cannot have a values based foreign policy - all that matters is power.

Cambodian and Thai leadership wants to retain power, so they decided to work with the Chinese - who don't care if you are an autocracy or a democracy, while we tried to make an example out of Thailand (and Cambodia) for regressing into authoritarian military governments.

We the US need to return to the same mercenary foreign policy. We are starting to do that again with rappoachment to Pakistan, shielding Israel, and arm twisting the Europeans.

Welcome to a multipolar world - only the powerful can set the rules.

mensetmanusman

Good, the EU needs its own defense industry.

zppln

More specifically, we could use our own engine. Gripen E still rely on the GE F414. Europe has nothing to rival the P&W F135.

cm2187

My limited understanding is that the F135 is massively over-powered to be capable of VTOL + push through the bulky shape of the F35, resulting in a disappointing range. I don't know that it would make sense to use it on a different platform.

adgjlsfhk1

That just means it's the right size engine for a bigger plane without vtol.

zppln

I was thinking more in terms of it being a newer design.

From what I've gathered there's some work being done on new engine designs within the FCAS program, but I have no idea how it's going.

daveaiello

This deal is for four (4) jets, according to the SCMP.

With respect to everybody reading this, I'm not prepared to read anything into a purchase of four jets.

John23832

Total thai airfare is 112 capable aircraft. That includes the various types. 4 fighters in the context of a small airforce is a lot.

daveaiello

I can appreciate that perspective as well.

Animats

The Gripen is a good choice for geographically small countries. It's able to operate from airstrips that are no more than roads, with modest mobile ground equipment for support. Saab commercial for the Gripen: [1]

The USAF's force model involves basing at big, well-equipped, well-protected air bases. Those are now hard to protect from drone attacks, as Russia recently found out. From now on, air forces have to be able to operate from improvised bases, or build very strong bunkers at major bases.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyD0liioY8E

echelon

> It's able to operate from airstrips that are no more than roads

I can understand this argument.

> The USAF's force model involves basing at big, well-equipped, well-protected air bases.

But I don't understand this one. Isn't a drone attack a drone attack? The same drones that could take out F-16s could take out Gripens. You'd have to defend your expensive weapon systems in either case.

Don't we need a new strategy that isn't entirely reliant upon extremely powerful, but extremely expensive hardware? I'd imagine you still want your expensive pieces, but that you want a compliment of inexpensive combat items and fortified bunkers as a line of defense to protect them when not deployed.

nxobject

Looks like Thailand's no longer in a rush to get a "final" tariff deal, even if we're stuck at a 19% rate. (I think our flag carrier might be refreshing its fleet exclusively with Boeing to sweeten the deal.)

namuol

Cambodia nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize for his administration’s apparent role in their recent ceasefire negotiations with Thailand: https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501734313/cambodia-officially-n...

Unclear if this is some kind of reactionary retaliation for perceived favorability toward Cambodia or if Trump’s apparently favorability toward Cambodia is retaliation for what he may have already known about Thailand’s shift toward EU weaponry. They’re hardly the first country to start shopping around, so the latter wouldn’t surprise me.

throwaway5752

This is not some reciprocal action, it's just logical fallout that the US is no longer reliable as a military ally under this administration, and capable of electing similar leadership in the future. Much, much more of this is ahead. It will impact the USD.

reactordev

I mean, I would buy a Gripen over an F-16 anyday. However, the view from the F-16 cockpit is matched only by the F-22/F-35. damn near 360 degree bubble view.

more_corn

I wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that nobody wants to do business with a damned bully.

deadbabe

How does one become a broker for military jets and does it pay well?

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