U.S. bombs Iranian nuclear sites
1817 comments
·June 22, 2025cakealert
simonh
It's not so much them being a theocracy IMHO. It's that they believe they have a religious duty to destroy the state of Israel.
Put those Israeli shoes on. There's a state armed with ballistic missiles in easy range of you, they have the facilities necessary to enrich weapons grade Uranium, recently acquired more advanced centrifuges, they have the uranium already enriched far beyond what's necessary for civilian use, they have far more of it than they credibly need for such civilian use, and they believe god has ordered them to destroy you.
How well would you sleep at night?
FilosofumRex
Iran opposition to Israel's occupation of Muslim lands and territories, predates the current government of Iran. All rational non-racists, non-Zionistic people oppose Israel's occupation including the vast majority of UN member states.
9dev
These positions are not mutually exclusive though. You can both be in favor of stripping Irans ability to build nukes and oppose Israel’s settlements.
golol
You can oppose something or you can create terorrist militias to attack Israel and destabilize its neighboring countries.
dismalaf
Occupation of "Muslim lands"?
Under the Ottoman Empire it was (relatively) scarcely populated and a fairly even mix of Jews, Christians and Muslims.
Before the Ottomans and various Islamic conquests it was almost entirely Christian/Roman (as was the whole Middle East). Before that Jewish.
And keep in mind Zionism started during the Ottoman era, with Jews simply immigrating there.
Also let's not forget that the partition plan for Palestine was proposed by the UN which you reference.
alex1138
False.
farzd
Same way Palestines in Gaza sleep at night. You seem completely oblivious to history and current state of affairs.
throw310822
Anybody who would throw a nuke at Israel would be incinerated a minute later. To suggest Iran would do it anyway is equivalent to saying that they're completely, crazy, fanatical, genocidal and stupid, which is a deeply racist, dehumanising statement.
9dev
You’d need to make a distinction between the Iranian regime, a corrupt band of thieves in charge of the government, infused by religion, and the Iranian people, who have been suffering through this for almost half a century. Any criticism is directed against the former, and fully valid: These people are fanatical idiots, albeit dangerous.
sreekanth850
That is why they formed the Axis of Resistance. They will act through their proxies. And imagine if Hezbollah or the Houthis got nuclear weapons, the whole world would be threatened.
dotancohen
> To suggest Iran would do it anyway is equivalent to saying that they're completely, crazy, fanatical, genocidal and stupid
It's the Iranian government saying they'd do it, not westerners. And you seem to have some sort of culture complex. Their culture is different than yours (not better, not worse, but different) and for them dying to liberate land from infidels is not crazy, it is the highest honour their society bestows.There is nothing racist or dehumanising about acknowledging cultures different from your own. In fact, I would say that assuming everybody adheres to your cultural values is the racist position.
JodieBenitez
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jhanschoo
The first thing I would want to do after wearing Israeli shoes would be to find a way to flee immediately and disassociate myself from being complicit with the ongoing genocide (or to resist it if I were in such a position), Iran's hostility be damned.
In which case, I suppose that any resistance I might do would have the state call me an anti-Semite.
asadm
... so you preemptively attack every neighbor and commit genocide?
lostmsu
Was this bombing a genocide?
tharmas
Israel has nukes, so why would they be afraid of Iran?
raffraffraff
There's "having nukes" and there's "using nukes".
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QgkUVIj3KWY
The trouble with a regime like Iran is that they are a death cult. The price the put on human life (their own people as much as anyone else) is low, and they're all for martyrdom. With Iran, you cannot assume it's a just a deterrent in a cold war. You have to assume an increased likelihood that they will actually use them.
deepsun
The main point of having nukes is not using them. The moment one uses them -- they lost.
Nukes are good as a deterrent, not good as a weapon.
dismalaf
Because Iran isn't afraid of the MAD aspect, because of religion. They'd use a nuke in Israel, and Israel is tiny so it'd be devastating.
snapetom
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motorest
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recroad
Why are you assuming that Iran wants to destroy Israel? Everything I’ve actually seen is the complete opposite: it’s Israel that clearly wants to destroy Israel.
The whole “preemptive strike” stuff is BS and not a serious argument.
intermerda
> Why are you assuming that Iran wants to destroy Israel?
I'm guessing from the words and actions of Iranian leaders: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_of_Israel_in_Irani...
motorest
> Why are you assuming that Iran wants to destroy Israel? Everything I’ve actually seen is the complete opposite: it’s Israel that clearly wants to destroy Israel.
Even by your own logic, do you believe that having a country threaten your existence is not reason enough to want them destroyed?
whatshisface
I'm not sure where to start with this, but if you're imagining Iran's theocracy as a bunch of priests making the strategic decisions, you haven't seen the people that Israel prioritized the assassination of (all secular leaders).
FilosofumRex
Israel defines itself as a "jewish" state, and at least 50% of members of current governing parties in parliament are from religious parties and zionist parties.
In what sense Israel is not a theocracy.
9dev
Maybe the fact that every single one of these representatives has been appointed in a fair democratic vote?
tsimionescu
Iran became a theocracy through a popular uprising, too. Democracy and theocracy are quite compatible, as long as the people are religious enough.
epolanski
> Iran never had the deterrent North Korea had.
I feel very conflicted about what's happening.
On one side it is clear that no country should give up their WMD projects. You lack that deterrent you get attacked, as simple as that. Libya, Syria, Iraq gave up their WMD projects eventually got bombed/attacked.
> What happened today likely saved millions of Iranian lives.
That's speculation. Since you name NK that's a clear example of a country having nuclear deterrent actually saving the region from a conflict.
recroad
Thank you, great liberator. Please bomb us more to save our lives.
hackerknew
You’d be surprised, but the people of Iran have been waiting for this moment for years. There are 80 million people who want the end of the regime.
Whether this fulfills that goal, we will see, but anything that weakens the regime is good for the Iranian people.
deepsun
I know a similar precedent from Belarus, an Eastern European country. The population is way smaller, and their main problem is Moscow in the east, but it's the same sentiment -- please bomb us as we cannot throw out this regime ourselves, yes.
Internet used to joke about US "freedom bombs", but it's taken quite seriously and positively there.
recroad
You hear and read about it, but it’s still surreal to see the effects of propaganda in real life. I’m glad I’m old enough to have seen this show before live.
gattilorenz
Even those who want a regime change tend to dislike getting bombs on their heads.
And if anything, the last 20 years taught us that revolutions imposed from the outside never work
dimator
how does this do anything except strengthen the resolve of those thugs in power? even those against the regime will want retribution for an attack on their home land.
regime change has never worked, not with actual boots on the ground, let alone targeted air strikes.
vasco
How many Iranians do you know that told you that?
pjpyao
Truly amazing to see how fucking stupid the average HN user is.
tsimionescu
This is incredibly idiotic. Imagine a terrorist attack against the Trump admin in the following weeks, and someone coming in to say "you'd be surprised, but the people of the USA have been waiting for this moment for months. There are 100 million people who want an end to Trump".
People never, ever, under any circumstances, want to be attacked and bombed by another country. Not even the biggest dissidents rotting in regime jails would welcome this. Not even a little bit.
jandrewrogers
North Korea is a Chinese client state. As a general rule, client states are treated as extensions of the countries that control them. Iran is not a client state.
yard2010
Iran is more like a server state, it serves terror and death through their proxies. It's like a vpn of destruction.
alkyon
If anything, the lack of competence is on the other side.
Was enriched uranium destroyed? I doubt it.
Have they even "obliterated" Fordow site buried 90 m deep inside the mountain? I have serious doubts.
Iran's nuclear program was set back some months if anything.
birn559
Care to elaborate? A random person doubting things doesn't help other people or bringing a discussion forward.
fifilura
I agree with the gp.
Iran is a huge country and USA and Israel has been pointing their finger on this exakt spot for weeks.
Either they dug further down or they just transported things away.
Leaving it all there just seems like a really weird thing to do.
motorest
> Care to elaborate? A random person doubting things doesn't help other people or bringing a discussion forward.
I don't know if you noticed, but what you are arguing for is in fact for mindlessly accepting unverified claims and extrapolate them to an optimal outcome. This is the opposite of critical thinking, and goes well beyond wishful thinking.
Meanwhile, if you pay attention to OP's point, you'll understand that Iran's nuclear sites have been continuously designed and developed for decades, while subjected to an almost evolutionary pressure, to continue operations even after withstanding direct attacks in scenarios matching exactly Trump's attacks.
In the very least, you must assess the effect of those strikes before making any sort of claim.
Another factor which it seems you somehow missed was the fact that Russia, another nuclear-capable totalitarian regime, is nowadays heavily dependent on Iran to conduct it's imperialist agenda. If Russia was negotiating handing over nuclear capabilities to North Korea in exchange for supporting it's war effort, do you believe Russia now has no interest to speed up Iran's nuclear weapons programmes?
hackerknew
Even if it is only set back by a few months, that is enough time to put pressure on Iran to abandon it altogether.
Keep in mind, Israel has full aerial control over Iran and has taken out hundreds of their missile launchers.
We can keep pounding the various nuclear facilities and hinder ant chances of rebuilding, making any effort futile.
disgruntledphd2
This would be a really risky strategy as it will push the Iranians into a corner with potentially large impacts on the oil price (which will change US public opinion).
stickfigure
I'm willing to bet that the Americans can build another one of those GBU-57 bombs every some months if they had to.
nmca
How do you purport to know this?
coffeebeqn
The layout of Fordow from what we’ve seen is not a single site. Depending on how many runs they did maybe it is all but destroyed or maybe it’s 1/3 destroyed. I’m sure Israel’s intelligence on it is pretty accurate (probably not public at this point)
adventured
The US, Israel and possibly Britain will install a no-fly zone over Iran. Israel is going to be entirely unwilling to allow Iran to go right back to building again what just got destroyed. This was a once in decades shot for Israel to take against Iran, in its very weakened state (with its proxies out of commission, Syria knocked over, and Russia very preoccupied). They'll attempt the post Gulf War I approach against Iraq (as an invasion will never be on the table). Sanctions and no-fly zone. They'll retain control over Iran's sky and in doing so will be free to bomb as they see fit if Iran attempts to build or re-start something like Fordow. If they attempt to install new air defenses, they'll simply bomb them. Whether that one bombing took care of Fordow is going to be moot, they'll hit it ten more times if that's what it takes, and destroy anything that attempts to move in or out of there. Israel can't maintain a no-fly zone over Iran so the US will be enlisted to do the heavy lifting on that.
400thecat
aiding regime change would be much easier, and would solve all these problems better. At some point in the next few days, the regime will be so weakened that the Iranian people will overthrow it themselves
seydor
> by having a theocracy they
Religion is just another ideology, and it s not like Islam has a specific position about nuclear energy
ebb_earl_co
In my view, religion is the set of ideologies that plays the children’s game of one-upping each other’s numbers until one of the children says “infinity” and sticks fingers in ears, sayin the game is over.
By this I mean the religious ideological move is eternal punishment for what they deem unsatisfactory or eternal bliss for compliance, no other branch.
Other ideologies invoke similar (infinite growth in capitalism, e.g.) but those are hyperbole for proselytization. An ideology that attempts to persuade with either the most egregious stick possible or the most delicious carrot possible makes religion the least palatable of ideologies.
FilosofumRex
There are 4 common misconceptions perpetuated by Israel and its 5th column in US media to skew public opinion in its favor and justify its war crimes:
1. Israel's nukes were provided by US to protect its ally - France secretly armed Israel to help it fight arab nationalists (Morocco, Lebanon, Algeria and Egypt) https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/the-us-discovery-is...
2. Iran's nukes were Khomeini's fanatical plot to attack Israel and US - U.S. Atoms for Peace program and the late Shah started the nuclear program by funding MIT/Lincoln Lab's research https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-united-states-nuclear-program-k...
3. Highly enriched U-235 is only for weapons - Modern medical, propulsion and research reactors use HEU https://wx1.ans.org/pi/ps/docs/ps72.pdf https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/expanding-nuclear-prop...
4. NPT Treaty bans production and use of HEU by member states - Article IV of NPT clearly allows production and use of HEU for non-weapon uses https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferatio...
EvgeniyZh
3. You can use highly enriched uranium (HEU) for things other than weapons, but the weapons are the only things that require HEU. Medical isotopes and propulsion can be done with LEU. For instance, Argentina produces medical Mo99 from LEU [1]. US Navy wants to switch to LEU for submarines [2]. One of the reasons for these developments is exactly proliferation risk management.
[1] https://inis.iaea.org/records/fe51q-17w28/files/35015774.pdf
motorest
> 3. You can use highly enriched uranium (HEU) for things other than weapons, but the weapons are the only things that require HEU.
OP seems to expect everyone to believe that any regime invests years and small fortunes in research sites built in networks of bomb-proof bunkers buried inside mountains, right next to their network of ballistic missiles, to research medical applications.
tomtom1337
I suggest you wrap the misconceptions in quotation marks to make it clearer what is the misconception and what is not. Took me two passes to realize what was what.
VoidWhisperer
Regarding #3, I haven't kept up with this specific issue lately, but wasn't the issue with their use and creation of HEU, atleast for a while, that they wouldn't allow UN nuclear energy inspectors to monitor what was being created at the reactors? There are AP articles from 2023[1] saying that Iran had barred 1/3 of the most experienced inspectors the UN had there from monitoring it, and a news article from the UN itself from this year[2] says that Iran has been actively impeding their ability to monitor its nuclear program.
[1]: https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-un-inspectors-b82c92... [2]: https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/06/1164291
mgiampapa
Presumably if you allow monitors for non-weapons uses, the accounting of where the material goes is relatively straightforward. Therefore monitoring could not be allowed, ipso facto, they are doing it for weapons.
9dev
> Modern medical, propulsion and research reactors use HEU
This blanket statement is so inaccurate it is useless. HEU is a range, medical or research applications usually use 20–30% enriched Uranium, not the >60% Iran is (has been?) currently working on.
ebb_earl_co
What is a fifth column? For that matter, what are the preceding four columns?
fifilura
A fifth column is a group of embedded traitors.
I am not sure the word is suitably used here.
Franco (loosely). "We'll be marching towards Madrid in four columns. The fifth column is already in the city".
vincnetas
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_column
A fifth column is a group of people who undermine a larger group or nation from within, usually in favor of an enemy group or another nation.
null
NoImmatureAdHom
To me, the only point that matters is #3 and to the best of my knowledge it isn't true any longer.
Iran has produced a large amount of >60% U-235 (enriched), probably hundreds of kilograms, way more than would be required for any peaceful purpose. I don't think any modern medical uses actually require enriched uranium any more. And anyway, how much medical imaging or radiation treatment could you possibly be doing? And they could be developing propulsion systems, that wouldn't be a peaceful purpose (it would be a military ship).
Put all this together and it seems abundantly clear that the sole purpose of Iran's HEU program is the production of nuclear weapons. HEU isn't required in any significant amount for peaceful purposes.
karmakurtisaani
> Put all this together and it seems abundantly clear that the sole purpose of Iran's HEU program is the production of nuclear weapons.
Not true. One simple reason could be just to keep the appearance of the program ongoing in order to gain leverage in negotiations. Remember that Trump pulled US out of the negotiations on his first term, this could easily just be Iran's response to it.
dismalaf
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epolanski
The two things aren't mutually exclusive.
wpm
Excellent refutation!
Come on you gotta at least try
dismalaf
None of the points matter when Iran literally states their goal is nuclear weapons and using them on Israel, over and over again. Straight from the horse's mouth.
Yet it's framed as "misconceptions perpetuated by Israel and its 5th column in US media"
motorest
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garbagewoman
The torrent of downvotes might be related to the lack of substance in your comment
motorest
My point is to underline the fact that the comment had no purpose other than to shoehorn wild claims of "Israel and its 5th column". Do you dispute this fact?
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tptacek
I think Netanyahu belongs in prison, and Trump, the less said the better, but: couldn't have happened to a nicer unauthorized weapons-grade uranium enrichment facility dug into the side of a mountain hours outside of population centers.
If you haven't already, I highly recommend reading up on the GBU-57 "bunker buster" bomb, because it is some Merrie Melodies Acme brand munitions. It's deliberately as heavy as they can make a bomb, not with explosives but just with mass. They should have shaped it like a giant piano.
rich_sasha
> unauthorized
It's a weird one. I don't disagree with your post, still, what is "approved" nukes? A bunch of countries got them, then decided that no one else is allowed them. Then Israel also got them, also "unauthorized", but countries who don't mind pretend they don't know.
In the end there is no authorized and unauthorized nukes, only a calculus of power.
motorest
> It's a weird one. I don't disagree with your post, still, what is "approved" nukes?
1. Check this list
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_we...
2. Cross out the countries which are attacked for having nuclear weapons.
Here's your definition of approved nukes.
tptacek
Correct. That is how sovereign states relate to each other, though.
rich_sasha
Sort of. I think there was an effort to put a rules-based framework, still skewed towards the "great powers", but a framework nonetheless.
Invasion of Afghanistan only happened after diplomatic efforts to get the Taliban to surrender Bin Laden. Iraq invasion was pushed through UN. Likewise, the Balkan war in 1990s was UN-sanctioned.
This? I mean, never mind the question of nukes, I don't think anyone declared war. Iran is a buffet of pick-your-own-target, in the middle of a negotiation that was supposed to end the nuclear program peacefully. I'm not saying it because I like Iran (I don't) but because it sets the tone where countries just do what they want, if they can get away with it. It's a step back from a world, where at least in theory we were supposed to stay within the frameworks of principle-based laws.
You might argue that this was always a façade only, and the powerful did whatever they wanted, bending the law around it. Maybe. But I'd like to think it set a limit to how far they can bend it. Now? I'm not so sure.
JohnBooty
I don't know that it's the best or fairest situation, but I do know I like it better than "every country is allowed to have nukes."
seydor
recent events show that instead, every country should have nukes if they want to be safe.
Russia attacked ukraine because they didn't. Iran got attacked because it didn't. North korea isnt attacked because they have. That's the moral of the story.
It's "make nukes first, ask questions later"
ignoramous
Probably because the country you live in has one or is under unconditional protection of one.
reissbaker
Israel isn't even close to the most recent country that got nukes (and they never signed the non-proliferation treaty) so I'm not sure why you have beef with them in particular.
rich_sasha
I'm not saying I have beef with it. I would be happier with a world where fewer countries, including Iran and Israel, have nukes. I'm saying legality of nukes seems 100% derived from a calculus of power, not first principles - that includes US, UK, Russia, China, everyone.
If a mafia boss defines anything he gets away with as legal, that's not aligned with what we commonly think of as legal justice and thus a pointless distinction.
octo888
Isr ael is literally involved with bombing Iran right now and this is a post about it. How could you expect them not to be mentioned?
snapetom
You 100% know why.
hearsathought
> I think Netanyahu belongs in prison
Didn't Netanyahu perjure himself to congress about iraq's wmds two decades? Isn't that grounds for arrest? It's amazing how our media never mentions that netanyahu is a habitual liar when they push netanyahu's iran's wmds spiel.
At this point our media companies are israel's PR department. Fox news should be banned like RT for being a foreign mouthpiece.
NekkoDroid
> Fox news should be banned like RT for being a foreign mouthpiece.
You forget that it is also US state media. Republicans would be banning their own version of RT.
benrutter
> Isn't that grounds for arrest?
Maybe, but worth saying the ICC have issued a warrant for Netanyahu for war crimes. The reason he hasn't been arrested is:
- The ICC is just a court, not a police department. Only countries have those, and while Netanyahu is in Israel, his own police probably won't arrest him.
- Authoritarian governments like Trump, Orban, Putin are actively undermining the ICC, which makes enforcement even less likely.
birn559
I believe no US administration ever acknowledged the ICC. By the way, the German chancellor just said he wouldn't arrest Netanyahu if he came to Germany.
It's not just a Trump thing.
jahewson
Why should anybody care what some upstarts with zero moral authority at the ICC think? Nobody voted for them.
D-Coder
"Perjure"? Was he testifying under oath?
mynameisash
"Providing a false statement to Congress is a crime, regardless of whether you are under oath."[0]
[0] https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2019/04/five-...
yencabulator
Trump sanctioned ICC judges after ICC issued a warrant for Netanyahu. It's a lot more than just PR.
Beefin
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idiotsecant
If Israel wasn't there, there would be terrorists on my doorstep? That's your actual, honest claim here?
fakedang
Be the cause of the terrorism, then talk of how you're the "tip of the spear" in preventing terrorism. You'd need to be special to be that kind of deluded.
With these strikes, it seems more like Israel has ample intelligence on the US government than it has on the Middle East, since even DNI concurred that there was no proof of WMDs.
ImJamal
I don't know what Netanyahu said so he may have perjured himself, but Iraq technically had WMD. They weren't nukes, but the chemical variety and most of them weren't stored properly.
rsingel
They had jack. Zero. Nada.
It was ginned up BS that led to the worst foreign policy blunder in 100 years, directly creating ISIS, deaths of 500k Iraqis and kicking off the migrant crisis.
idiotsecant
Sure glad we spent a generation of lives and treasure, and maybe the golden years of the American hegemony on that boondoggle to take care of a few crappy chemical weapons in some dusty sand pit of a country.
eastbound
Chemicals are usually less efficient than normal bombs. They’re too local. You can do the same with explosives. “Iraq had explosives.”
motorest
I don't know who is downvoting PP but here's Wikipedia's article on Iraq WMDs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_and_weapons_of_mass_destr...
mrtksn
Let’s hope that the destruction of facilities comes with the regime change in Iran. otherwise it may have just given a brief pause and further escalation.
If the regime survives, now Iranian people have a very good reasons to ignore its shortcomings and tyranny and Do a proper sacrifice. It’s a natural resources rich nation of 90 million people. If they want to get serious, they can get serious.
riffraff
Can you think of a regime that was bombed by foreigners and quickly fell?
I cannot. Ground occupation, yes. But afaict bombing just reinforces the regime.
YZF
I don't think we have a historical precedence to what is happening here. The closest would be Israel's attack on Hezbollah which literally collapsed and led to the collapse of the Syrian regime as well.
The Iranian regime is very centralized and with Israel and the USA having air superiority and having penetrated it completely from an intelligence perspective (see Israel's perfect knowledge of the whereabouts of the previous chief of staff and the newly appointed chief of staff) it's going to be very hard for it to survive if a decision is made to remove it. There are a handful of key people that once gone there is not going to be any continuity.
The current regime is allowed to continue because of fear of chaos if it is removed, not because there isn't a capability to remove it.
necklesspen
It didn't literally cause a regime change but the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia was essentially the last nail in the coffin for the Milosevic regime.
The key element is where the will of the people points - Milosevic was already unpopular and the bombing further united the people against him.
The few Iranians I know are against the regime, but I don't know how the wider picture looks.
coffeebeqn
Not necessarily but this is also not the end of the campaign. If Israel and US take out their ultimate bargaining chip and have air supremacy then the room to maneuver for the ayatollah is quite small. What happens next inside Iran is anyone’s guess. There have been multiple waves of very large protests in the past five years. What’s stopping mossad from delivering rifles to them from Syria or an airdrop at this point of escalation
400thecat
Argentinian Junta fell after they lost the Falkland war in 1982
aksss
Japan
llmthrow103
You think America can occupy a country as big land-wise as Iran with a population approaching 100 million and an actual military?
This is more likely to be the end of the American empire than an actual change in Iran.
YZF
The US has no desire or intent to occupy Iran. It would take a year just to move enough forces to even contemplate it. Iran is mountainous which makes this a lot harder than Iraq.
It is also completely unnecessary. There are two options. Either the current regime makes a "deal" or it's going to get crippled to the point of irrelevance or removed.
Iran and Iraq are very different. Different culture, people and history. It's also worth remembering Iran is not homogeneous, only 61% of the population are Persians. There are Azeri, there are Kurds and various other ethnic/region minorities.
Iran is extremely vulnerable. It has internal issues, constantly oppressing/suppressing its people. Its economy is in terrible shape. Most of its economic engine can be easily taken out (its main oil terminals). The bulk of its military can be destroyed from the air, it has little defensive or offensive capability. They know it.
nirav72
Don’t think the current guy in the white house is much into nation building. Also after Iraq and 20 years wasted in Afghanistan - Americans are less likely to care about rebuilding a country.
mrtksn
Well, its done now. All we can do is to hope for the better outcome and ever more powerful ideological regime is not the better outcome. Trump might just guaranteed that though. He isn’t good at this international relations and peacemakings stuff.
djfivyvusn
At least 60% of the 90 million are closet Christians or atheists in a country where you get the death penalty for renouncing islam.
You think we need to occupy them? This isn't Iraq.
Tika2234
It is ending a bit like Ming dynasty and Rome towards the end. Corruptions rife everywhere. Leaders try to be competent and yet ended making more mess. You can already see China is doing 5nm. Best camera phone is Huawei. Best EV in both variants models and quality and total volume sales, BYD. Tesla get decimated. Even AI China is on par. In terms of talents, you can see how well Americans read and count. In 30 years time, you need to learn Chinese and maybe Russian. I dont see America will be much viable pass the next 30 years. If you get a Dem prez, the country will be saturated with illegals. If you get JD, debrs will spiral out of control while opening a warfront in the middle east with Iran and China. This is basically empire ending scenario.
WaxProlix
Even if the regime doesn't survive, what's our track record in Iranian regime change like? What are the chances people there swallow their pride and roll over? If anything, Khomeini is probably a moderate compared to a lot of what we could end up with after 'regime change' (lol)
jvm___
What are the chances that the peaceful, think it through, be reasonable crowd is ready to organize the next regime. Or maybe the hotheads with guns are ready to shoot first aim later.
Perhaps forcing regime changes on other countries shouldn't be a quick decision.
devcpp
Saying "Khomeini" on current day Iran casts a large doubt on how much you know on the topic.
mrtksn
I guess it’s all about how it’s handled afterwards. Germany and Japan have become huge US allies after some proper bombings.
Just recently Trump tried to troll the Germany’s leader for it and only got a “Thank you for defeating us”.
The truth is that Iran’s regime is indeed a very shitty one and a lot of people have grievances with it but the problem is, this is about Israel and they are not any better and didn’t stand at a higher moral ground with their illegal occupation and actions that many consider genocidal.
birn559
Iranian people won't suddenly start to like the regime just because certain sites were destroyed.
rich_sasha
My conclusion from the last 30 years of regime changes in ME is, be careful what you wish for. Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt - they all had their regimes "improved" by well-meaning (?) external powers, and they all went pretty badly.
That's not to endorse any of these regimes, including the current Iranian one, just saying the variance is enormous around these events.
petre
Sure. It's nice to hope though. The Iranian establishment is even more rabid now.
CommanderData
Regime change is what the US and Israel has been doing for the last 40 years in the middle east.
That is literally the ultimate ambition of this war.
There's a long list of middle eastern countries where we've installed our stooges.
mahkeiro
They don’t care about the regime, they only want it to be aligned with the US and Israel. The Saudi absolute monarchy regime (something that is way worst than the Iranian one) that is directly coming from middle ages, doesn’t get the same journalistic treatment in the US. Women rights in Iran are lightyears ahead of what is happening in Saudi Arabia. But who cares? Talking about Iran regime change only is pure hypocrisy when your best friend in the region can kill anyone by just deciding it.
YZF
Israel hasn't really engaged in regime change. If anything the opposite. There was a single failed attempt to get the Christians into power in Lebanon. But mostly sort of the devil I know. We have Hussein in Jordan. We had Assad in Syria. Egypt had its own turmoils but not much Israeli involvement. The PA and Hamas were also viewed as a stabler alternative to chaos. Saudi and the emirates pretty stable. Turkey (not quite middle east but whatever) also have their internal turmoil. Iran has been stable as well.
jordanb
I'm sure if we keep trying we'll get it right eventually.
johnfirus
[dead]
sodality2
Let’s hope whatever intel that says Iran really does have nukes is true, given its propensity as a scapegoat for previous wars. Don’t forget that less than 2 months ago, senior intelligence officials said conclusively Iran was not close to having nuclear weapons.
Edit: 3 months, and source: https://www.newsweek.com/tulsi-gabbard-iran-nuclear-weapon-2...
1659447091
Another source, from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence[0]
On that page you can download an unclassified 2025 Annual Threat Assessment [pdf] where on page 26 it states:
>> We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so. In the past year, there has been an erosion of a decades-long taboo on discussing nuclear weapons in public that has emboldened nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decisionmaking apparatus. Khamenei remains the final decisionmaker over Iran’s nuclear program, to include any decision to develop nuclear weapons.
I also think there is more reading in there that may interest people here.
[0] https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/reports-publications/...
[pdf] https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-202...
tripletao
Leaving aside the accuracy of this claim, "building a weapon" here means "taking the uranium they've already enriched almost to weapons-grade, and completing final assembly into a working device".
The nuclear physicists got the glory for the Manhattan Project, but the enrichment was the vast majority of the time and cost[1]. Similar ratios apply today. There is zero question that Iran's government is spending a significant fraction of its GDP on enrichment activity that would be economically absurd except as a step towards nuclear weapons--they acknowledge it proudly!
That doesn't mean these strikes were necessarily a good idea. There's no question that Iran was working actively towards a bomb though, even if "building a weapon" gets redefined narrowly to exclude almost all the actual effort.
1. https://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2013/05/17/the-price-of-the-...
econ
Bibi has repeatedly informed us the bomb would be ready in the next few months for 23 years or so.
Saddam also had WMDs, we just don't know where.
Etc
birn559
Israel has also been sabotaging their program and murdering scientists for the same time. Maybe it's an instance of the prevention paradox? Together with the fact that things sometimes naturally need MUCH more time than anticipated?
krona
> Saddam also had WMDs, we just don't know where.
Presumably if Saddam had built a large reinforced concrete bunker deep in the side of a mountain hours from the nearest city, that might be a place fairly high on your checklist?
nsingh2
He's been saying this since 1992, so 33 years so far.
jiggawatts
"Will be done in 'x' months" vs "Could be ready within 'x' months" are distinct statements.
My project managers often ask how long a project would take. I might say something like "two weeks after we're approved to start".
The PMs will wait a few months, approve the project, and then look flabbergasted when it is not instantaneously completed! "But you had all this time! Months ago you said it would take weeks!"
biglyburrito
You would have thought folks would have learned from the Iraq War that the US lies. I'm no fan of Khomeini's sabre-rattling, but if people are really buying into the narrative that we did this because they had nukes, idk what to tell you besides go read your history.
_heimdall
It isn't just the US that lies, its politicians and leaders. People in charge want to keep power, and the only ones willing to fight their way to the top don't deserve the power of office.
verisimi
Folks do know. Folks knew before the Iraq war too.
But what does this generic knowledge have to do with anything, when the military action is already decided for geo-political reasons? The only decision to make is what pretext to use.
In a way, the 'iraq wmd' justification has proven it's value as a pretext - so why not tweak it and use it again?
dj_gitmo
If they thought Iran had nukes they wouldn’t be attacking them. Nobody thinks Iran had a nuclear weapon, or that they are even trying that hard to get one.
trebligdivad
I don't understand this argument; why would you have a large, acknowledged, underground nuclear purification unit if it wasn't for bombs? Why wouldn't you cooperate with their regular IAEA inspection if it wasn't for bombs?
jordanb
Everyone in Iran who decided to follow international law and not pursue nuclear weapons including Khamenei look like clowns right now.
kelnos
"Not close" doesn't mean they're not working on it. I think it's reasonable to expect that unspoken bit is "... but their current avenue of work is going to eventually succeed".
I'm tired of the US playing puppetmaster (poorly) around the world, getting involved in conflicts that have nothing to do with us (or rather, creating conflicts when it has to do with access to oil or something). And it's not like we haven't messed up Iran enough already.
But I do not want a nuclear-armed Iran to be a thing. If they were working on it and had a solid program that was likely to bear fruit, I hate to say it, but this was probably the right move. But this is a big "if"; I don't trust this administration to tell the truth about any of this, no more than I trusted Bush Jr when he said Iraq had nukes.
nradov
No one in the US government was claiming that Iran had nuclear weapons. The stated reason is that they were close to having nuclear weapons based on the current rate of uranium enrichment, anywhere from a few weeks to a few months. Of course we may never know whether that's really true.
1659447091
> The stated reason is that they were close to having nuclear weapons
No the US was claiming: "We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so." in it's 2025 Threat Assessment. The reports believes they were not working on them and Khamenei has the final authority to restart the program which he had not done. However, they believe there was growing pressured to do so.
Trump just gave the guy reason to green light a weapons project he had so far not wanted.
[pdf] https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-202...
uhhhd
The photos of the facilities are literally all over the internet. The IAEA knew about it and knew Iran was enriching weapons grade uranium. This isn't Iraq 2.
sodality2
Flies in the face of the US intelligence community’s report at the end of March [0], but, I am not floored if true. Do you have any sources?
Edit: If you mean "Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015)" [1], that report explicitly mentions up to 60% which is not weapons grade.
[0]: https://www.newsweek.com/tulsi-gabbard-iran-nuclear-weapon-2... [1]: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-24.pd...
dj_gitmo
> Iran was enriching weapons grade uranium
Do you have a citation for this?
tmnvix
Are there other uses for highly enriched uranium? Wikipedia mentions 'research' I think.
Has the Iranian government ever explained why they are enriching uranium?
eastbound
Iran has “Death to America” as an hymn. It is commonly accepted that a nation directly threatening others of death deserves the war.
SillyUsername
Funny you should say that. The US has Bomb Iran as a parody of Barbara Ann, available on CD:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bomb_Iran
So apparently it's humourous to kill.
It's not like for like, but if you have a rabid population with low education being told to say stuff like this, they will, just because of social pressure and brainwashing.
Related, example of that brainwashing at scale:
- Killing people bad, but patriotic as a soldier.
- Killing people fine on TV, procreational entertainment bad.
- People told what to wear bad, but telling people they must be clothed, good.
- Religion says no killing, or protect those not of the same religion. People still kill, seen as no conflict of interest at all.
- Hording wealth seen as successful, yet society and the world has people suffering and illegal immigration as a consequence of not having it.
- People who don't work are grifters, but most people secretly want to quit their job and not work. Told to see the non workers as people sponging off society.
- Forced to work until your health fails, seen as acceptable.
Point being, no moral high ground because we're all brainwashed.
shmoe
From what I read, they likely still couldn't penetrate the halls at Fordow, which are about 260 feet underground and encased in 30000psi concrete. Did we even do anything there?
crystal_revenge
Which is precisely what makes the calculus of this so dangerous, something I don't think many people understand.
Iran isn't actually a nation of pure evil, they are looking out for their own interests and on any given Sunday, are not particularly interested in starting a nuclear conflict. At the same time, understandably, their adversaries are not particularly interested in them having that option.
The risk is when they are backed into a corner where using a nuclear weapon increasingly makes sense. In this case, if you bomb Fordow and can completely eradicate the nuclear weapons, you do eliminate the immediate nuclear risk (though not without creating a slew of new problems to deal with). But, if you fail you have now backed them into a corner where this might become an increasingly reasonable option.
Either way the events of today are very likely to unfold in ways that forever change not only the dynamics of the middle east but global politics as a whole.
Ancapistani
This is a great comment IMO :)
> Iran isn't actually a nation of pure evil, they are looking out for their own interests
Exactly. I do my best to consider them an "adversary", not an "enemy" for just that reason.
> The risk is when they are backed into a corner where using a nuclear weapon increasingly makes sense.
I'd argue there are two risks: one is that this puts Iran in a position where, if the regime survives, they will feel (and rightfully so) that the only way to secure their position is to possess them.
It also makes the same statement to other countries in similar positions.
I don't think we have a better option, sadly, but it is a consequence of this action.
Also, I don't think this makes a rational case for use. For possession, yes. For threatening to use them under certain conditions, yes - but the only rational use case for deploying nuclear weapons is if your opponent has already done the same. This became the case when the thermonuclear bomb was invented.
lostlogin
Is there a good write up somewhere on what a nuclear Iran would mean?
I don’t wish for more nuclear weapons, but to date, the states with them, usually (a nice apply word) don’t use them.
tus666
260ft is around 79m. The bombs can penetrate around 60m of concrete. So one bomb, probably not, but they are able to follow each other in quick succession meaning 2 or three should be able to do the job quite easily, with accurate GPS positioning.
400thecat
you don't actually need to completely destroy all the underground levels in Fordow. It is enough to cause enough damage so that the stored uranium contaminates the site, while being sealed from the outside world under the collapsed site.
missedthecue
They can penetrate 60m of soil. They cannot penetrate 60m of concrete. Reinforced concrete at about 5000psi would only get penetration of 8-15m.
The facility is beneath 80m of limestone which in the Qom formation is roughly equivalent to about 5000psi concrete.
Beneath the limestone, sits the facility itself which is encased in high performance concrete. So these bombs need to pen 80m of 5000psi material and then a unknown depth of high performance concrete.
jen729w
Also, surely – I have no expertise – but you don't need to totally destroy the bunker to render the operation basically dead, right?
The land, roads, ingress points, elevators, security, everything around here is now FUBAR. Okay so you didn't "destroy the bunker", but how many years until it's functional again?
margalabargala
Media is reporting that 12 were dropped on Fordow
sdenton4
The bombs don't dig a hole, removing all matter for the next bomb to dig its way deeper...
shmoe
ahh.. in my mind it was multiple hits spread over an area. This does make more sense.
ruined
AP quoting Iranian officials reports no radiological contamination, which suggests the facilities weren't penetrated https://apnews.com/live/israel-iran-war-updates#00000197-95a...
tptacek
You wouldn't expect significant radiological contamination from bombing an HEU facility deep underground? This isn't like exposed reactor core material.
jandrewrogers
That does not follow. It is not like it is an active reactor. There is no reason there should be significant radiological contamination.
null
arandomusername
What does "unauthorized" mean here? Who needs to authorize weapons-grade uranium enrichment?
The GBU-57 is dope. Really curious to see how well it worked here
nradov
Unauthorized in the sense of a violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which Iran is a signatory. Whether Iran is actually violating the treaty is a matter of some dispute.
tguvot
it's declared to be in violation https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iaea-board-declares-iran...
tptacek
It's literally an anvil they drop out of the sky hoping to punch through structures like an aerial drilling platform. I guess it's dope, but it seems like cartoon armament to me.
trhway
> I guess it's dope, but it seems like cartoon armament to me.
The first bunker-buster :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disney_bomb
"According to an anecdote, the idea arose after a group of Royal Navy officers saw a similar, but fictional, bomb depicted in the 1943 Walt Disney animated propaganda film Victory Through Air Power,[Note 10] and the name Disney was consequently given to the weapon."
cwmoore
Curious too. I can’t even imagine driving a 16ton nail through hundreds of feet of hard rock and reinforced concrete.
missedthecue
Not physically possible. You can get through hundreds of feet of loosely compacted soil and gravel but high performance concrete? 8-15m max.
If they built the facility out of 30,000psi concrete, they'd be lucky to pen 4 meters with a direct hit, nevermind the 80m of limestone above it.
__MatrixMan__
I know 30,000 lbs is a lot, but I'm still surprised that terminal velocity is fast enough for it to penetrate concrete as deeply as they say it can.
hansvm
I'm a little surprised too. Even at the speed of sound in granite (6km/s) where you can start to consider crater-forming dynamics you only get an impact depth of 200ft. Treating it as a Newtonian impactor you get a depth of 60ft. I'd wager the cone shape pushing material to the side is hugely important to the outcome.
BaudouinVH
here is more about that bomb : https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-b#394257unker-buster-a...
apu
Incredible to see the bloodlust and warmongering here, cloaked in the language of technical interest.
buangakun
As usual, the people who like war are the people who've never gone to war.
They cower behind their the comfort of their home, AC, keyboards, western paycheck and standards of living while trying to be (seen) as "rational" and "stoic".
They talk like there is good sides and bad sides in war, right sides and wrong sides.
Most of them are these small powerless men who dream of power fantasy.
I wonder, will today's children who is seeing this spectacles of war in 4K, all gore and guts and destruction, will grow up to be better leaders for all?
Or are they going to grow up just like their parents, small powerless trigger-happy men filled with mid-life crisis.
khazhoux
Why do you see it as bloodlust though?
If (if) this destroyed a nuclear weapons program, that is good for the world.
No one can predict the downstream consequences of today, but I fail to see an argument for why the world benefits from another nation getting the bomb.
LAC-Tech
The only nation in the middle east with a nuclear weapons program is Israel. Why not destroy that one? It's objectively more of a threat to the region than Iran's.
einpoklum
[flagged]
GuardianCaveman
[flagged]
viccis
>extremist Muslims or familiarity with what the Quran and hadiths
You can easily find stuff in the Bible and the Torah or Talmud that would shock you. And Israel even acts on the latter. But conveniently it's just the Muslim world, one beset with colonial extraction for centuries, that you care about. Not the people in the US who supported wars killings hundreds of thousands over the last few decades for religious reasons. Hmm.
null
EvgeniyZh
> the Muslim world, one beset with colonial extraction for centuries
Surely you mean on the side of extractors? The Ottoman Empire practiced mass movement of people (sürgün), basically settler colonialism; earlier Umayyad and Abbasid caliphates are among the largest empires in history, and their population was mass converted to Islam.
timeon
> acting like we can just be nice and everyone will get along
"We"? As far as I know US is not part of that region. Also I remember current president was campaigning on not starting wars. And yet here we are.
adhamsalama
Bro just one more war in the middle east bro it'll be good this time bro they're terrorists bro just believe me bro
LAC-Tech
It feels disingenuous to talk of extremist muslims when we have extremist jews bombing 4 countries in 2 years, and committing a genocide.
Iran has killed a lot less civilians than Israel and it isn't even close. I'm much less worried about them getting the bomb than I am about the fact Israel already has it.
ACCount36
[flagged]
nsingh2
Empathy for the Iranian people, whose budding democratic movement was crushed by the United States, for oil. The ones who are trying to fight for their own freedom from a repressive government, in the middle of this whole mess.
All these events risk spiraling the whole region into chaos, and creating another ISIS-like militancy, the brutality of which is going to be felt by the Iranians first and foremost.
tupac_speedrap
[flagged]
jhanschoo
Internally theocratic countries can also be diplomatically reasonable when it comes to the use of arms. The measured retaliation against the unprovoked bombing of its Iranian consulate in Syria leads me to see that it is quite reasonable in its actions.
BartjeD
Bombing another country is literally a declaration of war. With explosions.
Isn't an act of congress required for this, in the US?
riffraff
Countries stopped doing declarations of war decades ago, cause you know, war is not something _we_ do, it's something bad people do.
_We_ do special operations, interventions, liberations, preventive strikes, weapon destructions.
IceHegel
Any reasonable understanding of the term "war" obviously includes bombing a country's strategic military sites.
Today Congressmen's main job is soliciting bribes. I expect they want their name on as few pieces of paper connecting them to a conflict as possible. They are not in charge of the government.
GuardianCaveman
Obama bombed a lot of countries with no act of congress: Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, Syria, etc. I don’t know the legality but plenty of precedent besides him.
ignoramous
> Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, Syria ...
Interesting. Bombing Muslim-majority countries seems to be accepted exception?
PeterHolzwarth
By the body of American legislative tradition, no this is not an act of war. In fact, we haven't declared one since WWII.
einpoklum
https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI-S8-C11-2...
Use of military force requires congressional approval.
Well, in principle. In practice, the US executive does not observe this restriction, or at most - makes a flimsy connection the 2001 AUMF following the twin towers attack. The courts do not enjoin it from using military force pretty much arbitraly; and congress does not impeach nor even adopt declarative denunciations of this behavior.
Refreeze5224
George Washington was the first president to take military action without congressional approval, so on the sense of precedent providing legality, it's quite an old concept.
BartjeD
Next you'll tell me Hiroshima and Nagasaki weren't acts of war either!
PeterHolzwarth
WWII was the last time American declared war.
khazhoux
We were already at a declared war at that time.
blahyawnblah
No. The president is the commander in chief. I can't remember the president or the situation but a long time ago a president attacked and said "I'm sending the troops" then senate/congress had to approve it or troops would be stranded.
BLKNSLVR
The US, as rational thinking US citizens may have thought it to be, no longer exists.
In fact, it may never have actually existed.
lotyrin
Intelligent, rational, empathetic people need to realize that when they are doing theory of mind for others (and especially groups) they are projecting their own qualities where they do not exist.
khazhoux
That ship sailed decades ago, my friend.
lerp-io
moral of the story: if you don’t make the nuke to wipe everyone out fast enough, you will eventually get bombed and no amount of diplomacy will save you from game theory.
_heimdall
I do agree with the sentiment here, but "no amount of diplomacy" isn't really a description of Iran's government.
The Iranian government has frequently reference a goal of destroying Israel, a sovereign nation, and referred to the US in very disparaging (and biblical) terms. That doesn't justify direct attack, but it also isn't diplomatic.
azinman2
Disparaging? They literally chant death to America. Is that not also calling for its destruction?
lunarboy
I'm sure the decades of CIA meddling in the Middle East and endless wars had no effect on raising generations of US hatred. To hit someone, then call them dangerous when they say "I hate you" is real hero stuff
LAC-Tech
I do agree with the sentiment here, but "no amount of diplomacy" isn't really a description of Iran's government.
That's completely unfair to Iran. They had IAEA inspectors in their country and they were negotiating with the US (a nation who has put crippling sanctions on them).
Then a country that doesn't have IAEA inspectors bombed them, killing the people that very people who were negotiating with the US. Their message since than has been reasonable; "we won't negotiate while Israel is attacking us".
How much more diplomatic would you like them to be? They can't just roll over and take it, or they'll be finished.
ggm
I wonder if the bunker buster was used. It has a somewhat indirect lineage to the ww2 grand slam designed by Barnes Wallis.
Iran has massive earthquake risks. For reasons unassociated with nuclear bunkers they do a lot of research into (fibre, and other) strengthened cement construction. With obvious applications to their nuclear industry of course.
Another unrelated point, a significant number of Iranian civil engineering graduates are women. A somewhat dichotomous economy, when you consider the theocratic restrictions on costume and behaviour.
hwillis
> Another unrelated point, a significant number of Iranian civil engineering graduates are women. A somewhat dichotomous economy, when you consider the theocratic restrictions on costume and behaviour.
Iran does not have the same degree of sexist restrictions as eg Saudi Arabia. It's a very different climate from places where salafism is more common. Female education in particular is highly supported eg: https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/1869369086142296490
tbrownaw
> Another unrelated point, a significant number of Iranian civil engineering graduates are women. A somewhat dichotomous economy, when you consider the theocratic restrictions on costume and behaviour.
I thought it was generally known that richer societies with me equal treatment - where people are generally more able to choose jobs they like rather than needing to take whatever's a ticket to a decent life - are the places with higher disparities in well-paying occupations?
missedthecue
By a wide margin, the majority of Iranian university students are women. The ratio is over 60/40
coliveira
Bunker buster is not necessarily a solution for this. It was created for normal bunkers, WW2 style of construction. What they have in Iran are construction sites very deep in the mountains. I wouldn't be surprised if this type of bombs can't do more than superficial damage to the sites.
pigbearpig
Right...the GBU-57 having been placed into service in 2011 was surely created to destroy 65-year old bunker designs.
null
trhway
GBU-57 reaches 200ft depth, Fordow is 300ft. The seismic wave of explosion at 200ft of several tons of TNT would reach 300ft with pretty damaging energy.
And, if it weren't enough, you can always put a second bomb into the hole made by the first one.
To the commenters below:
- nobody would let Iran to come even close to remilitarizing again. No centrifuges, and no placing them or anything similar under ground, etc.
- I do think that US may get involved in enforcement of no-fly zone over Iran. The no-fly is necessary, and Israel just doesn't have enough resources. The further scenario that i see is https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44343063
- jugding by, for example, the precise drone strikes on the top military commanders, Israel has had very good intelligence from Iran, so i'm pretty sure that general parameters like the depth were well known to them (the public statement of 300ft may be a lie, yet the point is that US and Israel know the depth and thus weapons to use)
missedthecue
GBU-57 reaches 200ft of soil and gravel. Not 200ft of 5000psi limestone typical of the Qom formation in that area of Iran.
crazylogger
I imagine Iran will just pick a 1000-meter mountain to dig under then?
SllX
Supposedly we dropped six, but I'm interested in any information that comes out about the final damage to see if this was sufficient. Ideally this would be the beginning and end of our direct engagements in this conflict.
EDIT: I kind of wish you had broken your "commenters below" piece into separate replies, but I assume this one was directed at me:
> - I do think that US may get involved in enforcement of no-fly zone over Iran. The no-fly is necessary, and Israel just doesn't have enough resources. The further scenario that i see is https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44343063
I didn't even consider a no-fly zone, and perhaps. I mean at this point, the current Iranian regime is in the most precarious situation it has ever been in whether they go for the kill against Ali Khamenei or just keep picking out the people below him and the IRGC's ability to fight. But if we do this, then we, and I guess I mean we now that we've actually bombed them, then we're committing to more than just taking out their nuclear capabilities, but we're committing to seeing a full regime change come to fruition.
To be blunt, given our most recent history in Iraq and Afghanistan, I'm still very much of the opinion that the least amount of American involvement, the better. If our bombs help curtail Iran's nuclear weapon R&D and we didn't lose a single B-2 in the process, then great, we've done some good for the world[1], but our track record on seeing regime changes through to the end has been less than fabulous.
[1] Still waiting to see how successful the mission was towards this goal by the way.
coliveira
> Fordow is 300ft
You seem to believe they really have accurate information about these installations. I doubt it.
cryptonector
Why a no-fly zone?
tguvot
no fly or not no fly, but iranian foreign minister had to ask permission from idf in order to fly out to geneva
arandomusername
> I wonder if the bunker buster was used
Most certainly was. It's underground (Fordow is ~60m?) so it's either that or nukes.
ggm
As I understand it enrichment is by gas centrifuge or thermal diffusion. An earthquake bomb would disrupt both. You wouldn't be starting the feed cycle up rapidly, but since we're told Iran has stockpiles, this goes to sustainable delivery of materials more than specific short term risk.
As a strategy, I see this as flawed. A dirty bomb remains viable with partially enriched materials.
(This does not mean to imply I support either bombing or production of weapons grade materiel. It's a comment to outcome, not wisdom)
AnthonyMouse
> A dirty bomb remains viable with partially enriched materials.
A dirty bomb is basically Hollywood nonsense, and wouldn't use uranium to begin with because it isn't very radioactive.
The premise is that you put radioactive materials into a conventional explosive to spread it around. But spreading a kilogram of something over a small area is boring because you can fully vaporize a small area using conventional explosives, spreading a kilogram of something over a large area is useless because you'd be diluting it so much it wouldn't matter, and spreading several tons of something over a large area is back to "you could do more damage by just using several tons of far cheaper conventional explosives".
gh02t
Uranium, especially highly enriched uranium, is not very radioactive. That's one of the reasons its useful for weapons. UF6 is chemically really nasty, but it's heavy and also you have criticality issues that limit how much you can pack into a confined space before it explosively disassembles. That is to say, it would make an extremely poor dirty bomb that would do very little. It'd scare people of course but there are far easier things they could use to achieve that.
Far more concerning is the possibility that they give it away to someone else. Enrichment is nonlinear, going from 60% to the 90% needed for weapons is a fairly trivial amount of work.
rudedogg
> earthquake bomb
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_bomb for others who haven't heard the term
cryptonector
> As I understand it enrichment is by gas centrifuge or thermal diffusion.
Centrifuges. They got them via the A. Q. Khan network. We learned about if circa 2005 from Qaddaffi who gave up his to secure peace and his safety (and it didn't turn out well for him because Obama did not respect the gentleman's deal Qaddaffi had with Bush).
neves
Remember that Israel had more nuclear bombs than China and never signed any international as tmy treaty.
arandomusername
Iran is prone to earthquakes, would an earthquake bomb do more damage than that?
Even if it just damages the centrifuges, as far as I see it, it would just delay their enrichment process, severely less than total destruction of their underground base.
tehjoker
the bunker buster, if used, will almost certainly be nuclear. estimated tonnage: 300 kt
p_ing
MOP is a conventional weapon, 30,000 lbs. Only the B-2 is rated to carry it.
arandomusername
The GBU-57 was most likely used, which is non nuclear
ggm
This is nonsense.
tehjoker
those of you hating on this comment, the conventional weapons could not possibly work, the facility is too deep
ranger_danger
> almost certainly be nuclear
Source:
tiffanyh
Yes, bunker buster was used. Per a different source:
> It included a strike on the heavily-fortified Fordo nuclear site, according to Trump, which is located roughly 300 feet under a mountain about 100 miles south of Tehran. It's a move that Israel has been lobbying the U.S. to carry out, given that only the U.S. has the kind of powerful "bunker buster" bomb capable of reaching the site. Known as the GBU-57 MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator), the bomb can only be transported by one specific U.S. warplane, the B-2 stealth bomber, due to its immense 30,000 pound weight.
https://www.npr.org/2025/06/21/nx-s1-5441127/iran-us-strike-...
throwaway2037
I read the article in full. There is no confirmation of using GBU-57 in the strike. Re-read your quoted section. The English is a bit convoluted, but does do not confirm usage.
Tin foil hat engaged: For all we know special forces detonated plastic explosives deep on site after doors were blown off.
More seriously: Nothing has been confirmed except a Truth Social post.
firesteelrain
It’s the only bomb types that make sense given how deep Fordow is buried
tptacek
CNN reports 12 GBU-57s were dropped on Fordow.
Can I say again how deeply silly this munition is? What's special about a GBU-57 isn't its explosive force. It's that the bomb casing is made out of special high-density ultra-heavy steel; it's deliberately just a super heavy bomb with a delayed fuse. It is literally like them dropping cartoon anvils out of the sky.
From what I've read, the idea is that they keep dropping bombs into the same bomb-hole that previous sorties left, each round of bombs drilling deeper into the structure.
stogot
So many armchair quarterbacks in this thread. You haven’t defined how silly this is beyond your feelings. Are you a munition expert? If you were an AF general given this order, what tactic would you choose excluding a nuke?
The same bomb hole tactic is an untested theory (which may be ineffective but not silly) but we’ll know more later this week once MAXAR surveillance and other independent or IAEA analysis rolls in.
tptacek
I'm not an expert. I just think dropping giant anvils from the sky is Loony Toons tactics. Maybe it works great! I don't know! But it's worth knowing how these things work, and how they work is: they're just super super heavy.
Dylan16807
You are reading the wordy "silly" incorrectly.
Havoc
Yup. Twelve at main site two at Natanz
benwills
I've heard 6 at Fordow, and 30 or so Tomahawks across Natanz and Isfahan.
_heimdall
I heard the same as well, the reference was to an interview Trump gave on Fox.
My expectation is that it was 3 rounds of 2 MOPs, hedging bets and potentially cresting a larger hole than drilling a hole one bomb at a time.
crossroadsguy
As someone who absolutely hates American bullying of a hegemony. This is one case where I believe people of Iran might get out beneficial out of it. In the long term? I am not sure.
But will that happen? I doubt it. A country like America likes authoritarian regimes that like to listen to America. So Iranian things in the best interest of America would be the same theocracy but docile to America at least in the near future.
However I just hope (it's too much to hope for) for the sake of Iran - it ends up getting a democracy after all (maybe).
However there is one thing clear - there is no rule based foreign relations, business, diplomacy anymore in this post truth world of hours. It's plain simple - you look after your own hind lest you find it someone at the door wanting to take it; might be an ally just as well.
Just as a side note: I can't thank four of my country's ex PMs [0] enough to ensure we had nukes inspite of stringent sanctions from other nations which ironically, among them, almost all already had nukes :D
The point is - we wish there were no nukes in our heating beautiful world; but tough luck, so you better get your own and get it soon.
[0] esp. Indira Ghandhi - probably the only head of sate that actually succeeded in "selling freedom" which America specialises in and uses as a premise to reduce various parts of the world to rubble but a positive outcome of it that its defence industry gets push from it and of course it goes about trying to re-build it (giving push to other industries) half or quarter way and then finds other places to subject to this routine.
koevet
But wasn't Iran already docile to America? Sure, it wasn't a crystal clear ally like Saudi or the Gulf states, but behind the anti-Zionist propaganda and "evil US" blabbering, there were decades of backchannel negotiations, regional pragmatism, and even moments of cooperation — especially when mutual interests aligned, like in post-Taliban Afghanistan or the fight against ISIS.
PeterHolzwarth
America and the broader west (and even much of the not-west) has been working to counter Iran's nuclear ambitions for decades. A nuclear armed Iran means much the middle east, which considers Iran a dire enemy, would feel compelled to immediately launch their own nuclear weapons programs.
fakedang
They could if they wanted to acquire nuclear weapons though. The Saudis explicitly funded the Pakistani nuclear programme with the option of access to nukes if required.
PeterHolzwarth
"A country like America likes authoritarian regimes that like to listen to America."
I dunno. America seems to like Norway, and they don't seem particularly authoritarian.
vbezhenar
Trump will declare that his BIG BEAUTIFUL BOMBS won the war, nuclear facilities are no more. Israel cannot claim otherwise, because that would be against big brother. Iran will continue covertly making nuclear bomb, but that will take more years, and will continue peace talks for now. Trump will get Nobel peace prize for peaceful bombing and will be happy.
fakedang
> The point is - we wish there were no nukes in our heating beautiful world; but tough luck, so you better get your own and get it soon.
Exactly my thoughts. We were absolutely blessed to have been developing our own nuclear capabilities at a time of intense international scrutiny. We were sanctioned to oblivion by the West for that until they realized (after Pakistan too developed their nukes, comfortably) that you can't simply ignore the elephant in the room. And we paid for it dearly too (with the assassinations of leaders in our nuclear programme).
At this point, it should be expected of any rational self-serving sovereign nation that they should develop nukes, especially if they have a record of historical non-aggression. South Korea, modern Japan, the EU (especially those in direct threat of Russia like Poland)... I don't expect Germany to grow a pair to not rely on the US, any time in the near future.
null
s_ting765
Which nuclear sites?
jameslk
This is not the end. This is the beginning of another Iraq war, set up exactly the same way: claiming, with dubious proof, an imminent risk from weapons of mass destruction.
Iran’s options here are to bomb US bases, which are a lot closer by, mine the Strait of Hormuz, blow up oil infrastructure in nearby countries who are harboring US bases.
This might risk Iran a much larger war but the alternative of doing nothing and showing the world they won’t defend themselves is worse.
The US will again bankroll another big, more expensive war to the tune of trillions more in debt. Another decade of war ahead with no end in sight.
Meanwhile, new enemies will be made for the US as a young generation grows up living through this. The cycle repeats.
PeterHolzwarth
Dubious proof?! Iran has been blatantly pursuing nuclear weapons for decades - and the west (along with much of the rest of the world and the middle east) has been working to counter it the whole time.
Remember that in the middle east, Iran is considered a dire enemy.
jameslk
Yes, dubious proof. A quick Google search can reveal this claim has been bs for decades, consistently evaluated by the US’ own intelligence, up until a few days ago
But that doesn’t matter anymore
totetsu
And meanwhile the biggest threat to all our security, the climate crisis goes unaddressed.
Iran never had the deterrent North Korea had. And by being a theocracy they heavily skewed any threat calculus against themselves.
What they were doing, inching towards nukes, was a horrible move. In their position, you either sprint covertly and not play at all.
I suspect that after their nuclear program was discovered and set back they fell victim to the sunk cost fallacy and convinced themselves they could repurpose it as leverage. But they are a theocratic regime and their messaging (whether genuine or not) made that a non-viable option in reality.
This is probably what happens when your government isn't very competent and you don't have mathematicians doing game theoretic simulations for you? Theocracy with nukes screams nuke them first if you can't destroy their capability by other means. What happened today likely saved millions of Iranian lives.