Oil hits 4-year low, coffee falls as trade war escalates

So many questions, but first off the bat: how are you getting onto HN, and what are you getting from this community to help you as a homeless guy in a minivan?

What does your rig look like? If you've got solar panels and battery and able to live somewhat comfortably, where would you draw the line between homeless and "van living"?

Hope your fortunes improve and that you ride this one out OK, godspeed!

You can get land with water in America for under $1000 an acre. Strongly recommend investing in land with water. Electricity can be pulled in via solar, trucked in with diesel fuel for generation, starlink can be arranged, sewage can be collected in containers and disposed of periodically (worst case), but having a place to stay legally with a water connection shouldn't be underestimated. I lived in a van I converted to solar too for six months before finding employment in a city and consequently a cheap apartment. This was before remote work was more accepted.

The article is focused on global commodity price trends rather than being exclusively about U.S. prices.

Coffee will get more expensive in the United States which is great for Puerto Rico -- although the kids in San Juan would prefer a protectionist strategy of growing crops that they consume themselves than exporting to the mainland.

Because the price of imported goods will increase in the United States driving down demand within the United States, exporters will have more supply which will drive down price to the other 100+ countries they trade with.

Once countries like Thailand and Peru start to trade more amongst themselves there probably isn't a return to same trading with the United States who will be like the kid on the playground nobody wants to play with.

Your understanding about OIL is very out of date. The US is the worlds largest oil producer and a net exporter of oil and oil based products.

The US does import some low quality cheaper crudes (heavy, sour) to be processed by US refineries that have much higher complexity and capital investment than other regions. Effectively people send their OIL to the US to be refined and that is where most of our imports come from.

Coffee futures prices do not include tariffs. They reflect the base market price of coffee for delivery at a future date, typically free on board (FOB) at a specified origin port (e.g., Brazil or Colombia). Tariffs, import duties, and local taxes are added later by the importer based on destination country policies.

Prices including tariffs might well go up but that's not what the article is about.

Since prices for consumers go up due to tariffs, demand goes down, hence prices ex-tariff go down. Standard stuff with tariffs, they make things cheaper on the outside.

Because coffee, as awesome as it is, is a consumer discretionary, not a consumer staple. You don't need coffee in the same vein you need a house, reliable transportation, a phone, sustenance food, etc.

Producers will lower prices if they fear that consumers will stop buying completely.

The expectation is that US consumers will reduce consumption rather than absorb higher prices.

Interesting effects for the rest of us with the cheap oil, though. I doubt it will offset the effects of reduced exports to the US but it usually has a positive effect on the economy.

Coffee will be more expensive in the US. So Americans are expected to drink less, leaving more in the global market. So the commodities markets (which are effectively "futures" trading by nature of the industry) are dropping.

Global demand is lower because US demand is lower, supply in the US is lower because prices are up.

Ends up making things cheaper globally but more expensive in the US.

It would get more expensive in the US, which means there's going to be less demand for it, which means the wholesale producer price is likely to fall due to oversupply.