Circuit breaker triggered in Japan for stock futures trading

If they do some corrections, the big guys will use it as a window to get rid of high risk investments onto smaller inexperienced investors riding the hype. That'll just blast the market further.

The confidence is gone. The risk is high whatever happens. The lowest risk strategy is now betting on market failure.

I would love it if you would. I can't promise how it will be viewed in this space but I find the best way to educate myself is to be wrong on the internet. :)

Not if you use put options like almost everyone. 99% of WSB are options trading.

He didn't do those things, or he couldn't? Not too familiar with American politics, but AIUI his majority was much weaker last time round, possibly resulting in some of his crazy being kept under control?

I hear this repeated, “we don’t want manufacturing jobs, they suck”. I work in manufacturing, and my job definitely does NOT suck! That short sighted western leadership were so eager to ship off manufacturing jobs to China has been a disaster for the west. I can’t be the only one who sees this?

The exception, of course, are the poor and lower working class who have no technical expertise or training, or would be unable to learn same... for those individuals the prospect of a manufacturing job is a step-up.

Just wait until we ramp up the t shirt manufacturing. Dozens of dollars will flow. DOZENS!

>We have an infinite renewable resource which costs nearly nothing to reproduce infinitely. We have a defacto monopoly on technology and digital services.

That doesn't work for ever. And Trump was voted by the blue collars. So he wants to create more blue collar jobs.

I’m about to sound like a China shill, but China reacts and executes very fast when they need to. A stupid example is both implementation and removal of pandemic protocols. The second society started protesting, they acted pretty fast.

> will today wake up with a portfolio loss of >5% without the market even reopening.

That's pretty much irrelevant unless you opt out next reopening. If you have your portfolio down 15%, 20% or 30% it does not matter. That's the short term picture. If you're investing and looking at how those numbers fluctuate to make decisions and panic you will lose money for sure. No different like going to the casino. You're supposed to buy and hold forever, regardless the market crashes or rises. That's Bogle's advice and I believe is sound advice. So, there could be an opportunity to buy lower now if you are playing the long game.

To be honest, “buy the dip” is generally cope that people tell themselves.

The average investor isn’t sitting on a pile of cash just waiting to move it into the market. People investing periodically over decades have far more in the market than out. The “buy the dip” stuff ends up being a little bit here or there so they can convince themselves not to worry, not an appreciable swing in their portfolio.

Statistics say sitting members of Congress and their families are pretty good at knowing when the best time is to buy and sell. I wonder why...

>>This isn’t a normal drawdown. This is a crisis with the leadership of the United States.

>The same thing happened just 4 short years ago when covid hit.

If by "same thing" you mean the market crashing, then yes, it's similar. But the cause of this isn't the "same thing" at all. For the next 4 years, the USA will have a president who wants to annex Greenland and Canada, who hates most (all?) US traditional allies and trading partners, who doesn't believe in free trade. The effects on the world economy are going to be slower to take effect compared to COVID, but they're going to be much deeper and long lasting.

Who intervenes if it’s the leadership manufacturing the crisis?

> The same thing happened just 4 short years ago when covid hit.

COVID was a natural disaster. Leadership responded to it.

This is the opposite. Markets were going well. Leadership intervened to crash them.

Do you see the difference? It’s not the same.

> You are overestimating the cautiousness of the market.

You are underestimating the impacts of risk premia.

This administration just showed that they don’t know what they’re doing, but they’re willing to go all-in on disastrous economic policy. They’ve already waffled on previous policy and then came back and doubled down. They’re still talking about more tariffs.

This isn’t a little “oopsie” any more. It’s a pattern. It’s going to be a long 4 years until we can get back to stability.

> Unless there are better returns offered in some other investment

You are so close. It’s not just returns, it’s risk. Trump just made the market hyper risky.

The covid crisis was an actual event in physical reality not caused by admin policies.

This crisis is the admin taking a sledgehammer to international capitalism. No obvious intervention other than "stop doing that".

I'm sure at some point the fed would have some kind of response but inflation of tariffs is a huge risk and that limits what the fed can do unless they have co-ordination with the admin.

COVID keeps getting brought up.

Let's remember that it was much worse than it had to be, because the same President actively causing this current catastrophe thought he could just ignore the problem and it would go away.

> (...) the capital is going to pile back in if something like tariff deals start getting announced.

What leads you to believe that scenario is realistic?

I mean, the list of US trading partners is dominated by less than a dozen trading blocks: EU, Mexico, Canada, ASEAN, China. That's it. Trade with India is as significant as trade with Italy alone, and a massive deal with them would barely move the needle in this trade war.

Unless the US somehow makes it's own trade war go away with the likes of Canada and the EU, there is no bright outlook for the market and economy. Trump's administration is repeatedly threatening both with annexation.

To make matters worse, do you really believe any trading block will move back to preserve economic ties with the US after this mess? Not a chance in hell.

The EU, which thanks to the Trump administration is already scrambling to prepare for a war with Russia, is excluding the US from supplying them arms. This is the extent to which these trading blocks are going to shed ties with the US.

Do you think things will just go back to how things were 6 months ago? The Trump administration ensured this is impossible.

> Indeed. That's especially true on the NATO side. This is a historical event on the scale of the breakup of the USSR.

Exaggeration isn't helpful. Whatever "this" is, you can't possibly make an assessment of that kind until years after the fact.

In March 2020, people were convincing themselves that the global economy was flying straight into the ground, but people who didn't lose their minds made a lot of money, quickly.

IMO, there was a better case for that panic, given the context (they were partly right! the lockdown stuff was incredibly costly!), than there is that this particular spasm is meaningful. Only time will tell.

Yeah really, Truss really is the most salient yardstick, with the complication that any analogous action in the mechanisms of american politics feels slightly unfathomable. And I was shocked enough at Truss' ouster.

It's all so divisive, but it frustrates me to no end that likely the biggest end that people trying to defend this, without any admission this is a crisis of confidence waiting to happen if it's not already there.

The amount of political capital immolated for the sake of this course of action is flatly embarrassing. It doesn't really matter what they want or how long they think it's going to take to get it, the damage is already done.

> I think we’re going to start seeing Republicans test the waters with breaking rank with Trump soon though.

This is already happening. The snag is, until the break adds up to a 2/3 majority in both House and Senate, a presidential veto of a bill reversing the tariffs cannot be overridden. And to get to 2/3, a lot more pain is going to have to be felt in Trumpland.

> I think we’re going to start seeing Republicans test the waters with breaking rank with Trump soon though.

Been hearing that weekly for 8 years. If everything before this didn't trigger significant action, I doubt this will.

I strongly suspect they still wouldn’t admit they were wrong.

The alternative is to not spend and not invest and not hire because confidence is down and policy uncertainty is high, leading to a recession.

It will affect if people buy a Honda they don't 100% need right now, or keep emergency money in case things go worse. Which on larger scale will still affect prices of everything.

This is different. It was entirely avoidable. Entirely predictable. Entirely preventable.

Hell, it’s mostly reversible if the administration would own their mistake. But they won’t.

That’s the problem: This is not a natural disaster or even a reaction to a market-created crash. It was orchestrated by the people who were supposed to be doing the opposite.

I don’t believe claims that the United States is doomed or other hyperbole. I do believe that this is firmly different than anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes though.

After the initial COVID phases nothing major really changed long term as far as the world balance goes though. Everyone got affected, everyone started recovering. Things may have been uneven, but not like now, right?

A disease did that. Nobody knew the details, there was fear it wouldn't stop. The markets groaned and creaked under the weight of the fear and uncertainty. But with the vaccine and the reduced lethality of new strains, a disease becomes a nothing. Recovery began because nothing was in the way, the bad thing was gone.

The people in charge of the government did this. The people who will still be in charge of the government. The bad thing is not gone. The bad thing has no end in sight. And the bad thing is doubling down.

At the time, there was trust that the government wanted to assist the recovery. They have lost the benefit of the doubt. This actually feels malicious.

With Covid, recovery came as Covid was removed. With Trump, recovery can come with…

> Trade deficit aside, we shouldn’t

US has been very successfully exporting its debt (quite literally, almost no other country can run such high deficits for so long) and services.

What do you think happens with all that money if Americans can’t buy those cheap imported goods anymore?

Also other countries like China or Japan won’t be able to continue buying US bonds. Basically Americans are getting free stuff funded by debt they are never going to pay back and still you have people whinning…

> larger %

US decided to charge e.g. 15 times higher tariffs on the EU than the EU does. You believe that’s even remotely reasonable?

Or do you actually trust Donald’s table that they made to confuse clueless idiots?

The “reciprocal” tariffs are nothing close to reciprocal. I hope you know by now that the numbers Trump presented were not actual tariff numbers that other countries put on us.

The trust issue is domestic, too. Businesses just got slapped with the largest tax increase in history at home. Pointing fingers at other countries is a distraction. It’s ridiculous to think that this will encourage companies to start building factories here when even the raw materials are now heavily taxed on their way in to the country. Any sane company is going to pause US factory investment until there is some clarity and predictability.

> Trade deficit aside, we shouldn’t let others collect a larger % of their imports from America than we collect of our imports from them.

Why should you care how much another country charges its residents to import stuff from the US?

Just sell at the price you want to sell at and who cares what goes on after your goods land.

> I expect the American feds to pursue the best interests of Americans (though these policies aren’t in those best interests

I think that's the thing — you plan in business for people to operate in _their own_ best interests. If people stop doing that & their behaviour is volatile, then you're going to put your own mid-term plans on pause until you know what's what.

> Trade deficit aside, we shouldn’t let others collect a larger % of their imports from America than we collect of our imports from them.

Is that happening, trade deficit aside, & when you factor in services as well as goods?

You could start making stuff we're willing to buy. I'll give you a qick rundown of what Europeans might want:

* no junk food, no weird GMO garbage. * road-legal automobiles, no EPA-workaround trucks with shoulder-high hoods. * advanced tech hardware gadgets. * entertainment * no, we're not particularly interested in guns.

Tell me what exactly what aren't we already buying from the US, when it's competitive: quality food we have our own, sorry; cars, well you've gone down a crazy path since I can remember; hardware, well we do, except you chose to offshore manufacturing; entertainment, we do... a lot; guns, be honest, you know you have a problem, not us.

So what's the point of this tantrum?

If you had a balanced portfolio a week ago, you're almost certainly overweight bonds today. Rebalance to your target weights and you'll be buying equities.

> Where does the cash come from if you’re invested?

The next paycheck. I don't go all in to one thing, but shift where it goes depending on what's generally going on.

Yeah. I have 5 years salary in cash, and know many people who also pulled out of the market over the last 6 months.

Hell, warren buffet is sitting on 350 billion in cash waiting for this exact scenario.

You of course sold all your stocks beginning of November because you knew a deep crash was coming and wanted to be ready to buy into it. And now you have a lot of cash.

> The market is still pricing in the optimistic scenario of tariffs being repealed

"The market" has no idea what the impact of the proposed changes are. Setting aside the obvious questions about whether or not this stuff will even happen, it's just not possible for something this complex to be evaluated so quickly.

This is panic. People are wildly guessing about the "worst case scenario", without any detailed understanding (or even data) on what might happen [1,2]. It's all speculation, but lots and lots of people love to write horror stories for clicks and points.

[1] Just for example: what does it even mean for an "X% tarrif on all products from country Y" to be imposed? The Harmonized Tariff Schedule is hundreds of thousands of line items, each with a different rate. Are they all being replaced with a single number? Is that line item number being multiplied by a factor? Something else? I guarantee that almost nobody knows the answer to that question right now. I'm not even sure an answer exists.

[2] This is the only thing I've found that comes close to answering the question: https://hts.usitc.gov/reststop/file?release=currentRelease&f...

Starting just from the first line item leads to a branching set of changes, many of which have exceptions and dependencies on other changes:

https://hts.usitc.gov/search?query=9903.01.25

Working through that changeset is a non-trivial operation, and then, working through the impact on something as detailed as a supply chain for any non-trivial product is immensely complicated. Now do it for every product.

Right.

> 13 more Republican defectors

In the Senate, but we still need an even bigger chunk in the House.

How do you dry out a desert?

Part of what’s going on is that there’s an aura of incompetence and chaos that has everyone confused. Vance is part of that, and he’s on top of it very young so he can’t even claim to have the experience to handle the current crisis, nor would he ever have been elected to do so as POTUS. So to the extent markets are reacting to that aura, Vance does nothing to assuage it.

Honestly the team with the experience, knowledge, and relationships to right this ship was just kicked out of the White House.