Subway crime plummets as ridership jumps significantly in congestion pricing era
150 comments
·February 6, 2025throwaway519
bogantech
And only one of them was a person being burnt to death
janalsncm
This is true unfortunately.
https://apnews.com/article/new-york-subway-woman-fire-c946bb...
If there is a “bright” side it’s that they caught the guy almost immediately because of cameras. It will take some time, but my hope is that eventually criminals will understand that cameras now make escaping from a crime impossible.
Solve rate goes up -> crime rate goes down -> solve rate goes up even more.
bennettnate5
I'm not sure someone intent on burning a person to death in public is going to be very deterred by the knowledge that cameras are recording their acts.
kennysoona
> eventually criminals will understand that cameras now make escaping from a crime impossible.
In NYC most of the time the cameras are such low resolution that when they post a photo of someone wanted for a crime it's impossible to make them out at all.
kouru225
Hm I wonder if that had anything to do with the subway itself?
Is it possible that a crazy person could burn someone alive in any location?
seanmcdirmid
Generally the NYC subway puts you into closer contact with crazy people than you would get normally. It’s like the bus here in Seattle and Link train, a lot of people don’t ride them because they don’t feel safe with all crazy people riding them…only a few people get killed by these people a year but it still discourages ridership. (Note that neither Seattle nor NYC are known for homicide, so murders like these are really notable)
multiplegeorges
This happens in cars very often.
Surely you apply the same rigorous analysis to driving as you did to this, correct?
fullshark
Talk about a false equivalence
gcapu
There's people burned to death all over the US. Most of them were murdered by negligent road engineers.
Invictus0
And only one of them was a person being sparta-kicked onto the tracks
orionsbelt
And only one of them was a young woman having her face randomly shoved into the side of an arriving train rendering her a quadriplegic.
h0l0cube
Are you sure it wasn't a strawman?
drawkward
Safer than driving, you say?
kouru225
In NYC there are 250 traffic fatalities per year with 1 million daily drivers
There are 10 murders in the subway per year with 2 million daily riders
The cars are WAY more dangerous and it’s not even funny. Plus cars cause 50,000 injuries per year. The amount of money we waste on cars is insane.
maplant
I'm pretty sure one of the properties of cars is that they can catch on fire (due to all that gasoline, which is famously flammable), so I don't think you should start driving if you want to avoid burning to death
janalsncm
Chance of being in a car accident on the train is zero.
Chance of being the victim of a crime is low but not zero.
ceejayoz
A scenario that has never occurred a) outside the subway or b) outside NYC, yes?
bagels
There have to be at least 147 gate jumpers every morning. There's probably a delta between crime and reported crime that is pretty large.
wonnage
you gonna count speeding too
bagels
Not sure how speeding relates to the subway?
add-sub-mul-div
Yeah why does crime only count when it's poor person coded.
lr4444lr
That's about 1 out of every 4 stations getting hit once a month with something. Millions of people take the subway almost daily. Sounds like the chances of being close enough to witness a crime, even if not directly victimized, are pretty high.
Then you have situations like the Jordan Neely episode which, though perhaps not "reported crimes", terrorize an entire car full of people.
tehwebguy
So entering the subway gives you a 1 in 4 chance of being at a station that had one crime reported that month. I’m shaking in my boots here!
I’d guess this is astronomically lower than the chances of witnessing 100 car drivers violating the law on your way to work.
throw__away7391
In reality the number is far higher than that, it just doesn’t get reported. On any given ride you have a pretty high likelihood of have “an incident” with a deranged member of the public, and your odds skyrocket if you’re a woman. Multiple women I know get a random weirdo trying to corner them in the subway or follow them at least once a week. None of this gets reported.
jakelazaroff
For the people who don’t live in NYC: “incident with a deranged member of the public” is usually code for “sharing space with a homeless person minding their own business”.
That is (sadly) not infrequent. Incidents in which you’re actually in danger are vanishingly rare.
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edm0nd
Society is not going off the rails nor a crime ridden cesspool. It's thriving and doing well. We just seem drawn to when it does go off the rails and notice it more imo.
currymj
while the NYC subway is indeed quite safe, it's also undeniably true that there are a lot of stinking smells.
ants_everywhere
The elevators smell less like urine than they used to. I consider that a major improvement.
zaphirplane
On a subway I smell a lot more
mc32
Haven’t they put cops on the subway passenger cars of late?
xordon
The article says that every train between 9pm and 5am has a uniformed police officer on board.
rtkwe
AFAIK they're mostly watching the turnstiles.
refurb
If it’s anything like SF most crime goes unreported.
Not to mention the knock on effect. A single criminal incident can result in thousands of people choosing not to use public transport.
But you are right, the crime aspect is overblown in places like NYC.
AyyEye
The last three times I called the police they made it clear they were only going to take a report so I could give it to insurance. One time the burglar was still inside (we let the police know this) and we watched the cop checked the door (locked) and left. We then watched the burglar walk into the room with the DVR and our cameras went out. The next day the dvr was gone so we couldn't even hold the cops accountable.
Another time we put up wanted posters, a couple of people ID'd him (they told us where he was squatting but didn't know his name) after a week of calls the cops finally go to check it out but by that point he'd left.
Anyway that's a long way of saying unless a third party needs a police report I don't bother wasting my time reporting anything.
catlikesshrimp
"We then watched the burglar walk into the room with the DVR and our cameras went out"
I must congratulate you on not using a cloud service for registering your surveillance videos. On the DVR note, mine is on the ceiling above a TV. Cables come down a short height to the TV.
"One time the burglar was still inside (we let the police know this) and we watched the cop checked the door (locked) and left"
Didn't the police take your key to unlock the door?
nla
Does 'throwaway519' live in NYC? Doubtful.
What 'throwaway519' doesn't know, because they don't work in an NYPD precinct, is that most subway crime is not reported, and if it is reported, it is downgraded, or outright dismissed. When a crime is committed and the suspect gets a DAT, once they have completed 6 months without another offense, the crime is deleted from the reported crime numbers. How do I know this? 14 years on the job in Manhattan--and I've never seen it this bad. We get 150 complaints a day at my precinct for Subway crime. 147 crimes... What. a. joke.
Larrikin
We get it, all facts and figure are to be ignored. The guy on the Internet feels it in his gut (if he even lives in the area) and has some little anecdote. So just take his word it's all terrible and you should be scared of everything.
djtango
When you collect data if it doesn't reflect what you know about reality, check again how you are collecting data.
If citizens no longer think reporting a crime will lead to justice, will they still report crimes?
My lived experience is that London is not as safe as it used to be. If the data tells me otherwise I will tell you a KPI driven org is gaslighting me
Larrikin
What if it's just someone lying on the internet.
hedora
It’s similar in our neighborhood in California.
Before we bought, we checked a crime statistics site, and it said the crime rate was zero near our place.
In reality, burglaries, etc, are extremely common, but the police don’t update the database.
gcapu
Crime reports are manipulated. A friend got hit in the head and NYPD refused to register it. Despite that, NYC is very safe compared to most of the US, and articles that say otherwise are just trying to manipulate you.
Nuzzerino
> A friend got hit in the head and NYPD refused to register it.
I think that's awful and hope your friend didn't get hurt too bad. I think anytime a victim (or a family member filing on behalf of a victim) makes a police report, it should be mandatory that they're provided a way to confirm the data and facts associated with it.
Also mandatory information on how to report a mistake or correction or complaint, and that process should be quick and painless, not something that takes any time at all. Because who is going to take hours out of their day to report a mistake if it already felt like a waste of time so far?
Some of the above may already exist, but without all of those components working well, it becomes dysfunctional.
I don't think the police are likely to implement something like the above in a way that works, and legislation mandating it will lack the flexibility, and only the bare minimum required will be done, if that.
To fix something dysfunctional often takes strong leadership that few have. Combine that with the negative incentives for running for public office when conditions are "just reasonably ok". Unless the conditions reach existential threat levels, we just end up with the usual career politicians willing and able to survive the inevitable scrutiny (and slander) regarding their personal lives. Some of that scrutiny is justified and necessary, much of it is not.
remram
You couldn't find the reply button?
screye
Most people are scared of violent crimes. If it is a felony, I doubt it gets removed after 6 months.
How many people are robbed, assaulted, violated or killed on the subway ?
Those are the numbers that matter. Talking about vague 'crimes' is a pointlessly low resolution.
Nuzzerino
This may be a naive take, and I haven't been to NYC in a decade, but I think that number should ideally stay close to zero. There's a concentrated amount of surveillance, a gated entry, and limited escape options. Combine that with potentially stiff penalties for violent crime, that should be a potent deterrence.
We have access to crime data, but what about the data on failure rates of specific crime mitigation tools? Is there any way for the public to audit things such as the reliability of security cameras, or crimes that were solved with the help of surveillance footage, good samaritans, etc? If not, when was the last time someone tried to get that implemented? It probably wouldn't do much in the short term, but over time could drive optimizations.
I think it is an accumulation of small failures over time that don't seem worth mentioning individually, but in aggregate can have the most impact on the crime rate.
Take my ideas with a grain of salt though, I'm only a layman on the subject.
djtango
I think this happens in London too. Crime is so normalised that both the residents and police see a creep in their threshold for what is a "serious" crime.
My apartment block sees package theft almost daily and there was a parking spot that was getting hit by smash and grabs almost daily at one point. We have up reporting them because the police were pretty nonchalant about doing anything about it. The only reason I think most crime at this level ever gets filed is for insurance claims. But if people are so squeezed they don't have insurance they wouldn't report them
arcticbull
Obviously there's some sampling bias in your response.
That aside, we can assume that the ratio of crimes to reports remained constant - because there's no reason to think otherwise. So if the ratio of reports to daily riders is now lower, even if there are billions of un-reported crimes as long as the ratio improved it did become safer on a per-ride basis.
Note that also you have a roughly 1% lifetime risk of dying in a car accident in the United States and your risk of dying on a train rounds to zero. So on balance, I strongly suspect you're safer even if there's a lot of unreported petty crime.
My understanding is that per person-hour, the subway doesn't get much more crime than any other outdoor public space.
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scarface_74
I have to admit that while I never believed the hysteria of “crime ridden cities” and my wife and I started traveling a lot post Covid - including “crime ridden” [sic] places like Seattle and San Francisco - I have to admit that I always thought the subway system in NYC would be some dystopian nightmare.
When I went there in 2023 during the US Open, we rode the subway everywhere and I didn’t feel the least bit nervous.
susodapop
As a NYC resident and white man, I found the subway broadly safe from _violent_ crime. My female and/or asian friends had significantly worse experiences: some were grabbed, others followed, some verbally harassed. It's not a dystopian nightmare — at the end of the day everyone just has somewhere to be — but regular ridership (particularly in Brooklyn and Queens) increments the bad experience counter regularly.
peterbonney
Thank you. The New York City subway has its issues, but most of them boil down to the fact that the system is really old and hard to modernize.
It also has unique strengths arising from the extreme population density and the inherent 24/7-ness of NYC (not to mention Manhattan's unique geography) but people don't talk about them as much as its flaws.
If your only reference point is transit in other US cities it's hard to grasp how different the NYC subway experience is, at least in Manhattan. Trains come every 5-10 minutes even at off-peak hours, and it's almost always busy. It's just not a very conducive environment for crime, unless you're riding in the middle of the night and/or at the tail ends of the system where density is lower.
When it comes to thinking about my own personal safety, I don't worry about crime on the subway, I worry about getting hit by a truck or e-bike rider.
drekipus
Police vigilance rises during special events. It's not an ever day occurrence
add-sub-mul-div
Living in fear is a choice. There's many ways to interpret crime statistics and the one you choose is often a reflection of yourself more so than the situation.
scarface_74
This is just like some people feel they have to carry a gun to protect themselves.
I have never in 50 years thought that I would feel safer if I carried a gun. Now I have thought about getting one for my home briefly and if I lived in a less safe area of an isolated area pI would have one at home.
Sparkyte
I say let that money pay for the public transportation and make that free.
remram
It would be nice to see some of that money go towards subway improvements. This is still the worst subway system I have used anywhere in the world: it is loud, it is slow, it is unreliable. Even Boston's right next door is so much cleaner, roomier, and more modern. Surely if the city taxes people into using the subway, they will do something to improve the subway?
Safety is a start I guess but is hard to judge when it had been declining for years. I am hopefully.
wibbily
The T is nicer, sure. It's also a fraction the size of the MTA, ass slow, and doesn't run past bedtime. Plus we're barely two years out from when it was often (literally) on fire.
Excuse my jadedness, but at least when I'm in NY the subway will get me where I'm going - and usually on time too
jakelazaroff
You’re in luck! The revenue from congestion pricing directly funds the MTA’s Capital Plan. https://www.mta.info/document/133541
threeseed
You see this time and time again.
If you want to reduce crime in an area simply make it busier.
kristjansson
Jane’s been right all along
djoldman
Jane Jacobs' "The Death and Life of Great American Cities"?
hnburnsy
Yeah, it is busy with police...
>Mayor Eric Adams attributed the decline in subway crime to a number of factors, including the massive surge of 1,200 additional NYPD officers in the subway system, as well as an additional 300 officers patrolling overnight trains
icnexbe7
[flagged]
ceejayoz
That'll show you a slightly lower rate of death-by-murder, but a significant increase in overall death-in-an-untimely-fashion.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-07/is-new...
scarface_74
icnexbe7
LOL you are using a website selling home security products as a source?
user_7832
I’m curious and not sure I’m understanding you right, is per capita crime significantly higher there?
AlotOfReading
Rural counties tend to have more crime per capita than urban centers in the US, yes. A few cities show up despite the trend like St Louis and DC, but those are pretty extreme outliers.
affinepplan
the mortality rate is significantly higher
hnburnsy
>Mayor Eric Adams attributed the decline in subway crime to a number of factors, including the massive surge of 1,200 additional NYPD officers in the subway system, as well as an additional 300 officers patrolling overnight trains
So which is the cause of the lower crime, congestion pricing, increased ridership, or the 1,500 additional officer surge? How long will this surge be sustained?
donohoe
Time will tell but I suspect its the increased ridership (helped by congestion pricing). The NYPD have been in the system for months and it didn't make much of a difference in the stats as far as I recall.
Congestion pricing is the most recent and significant changed variable.
debacle
You are spot on. The surge is I believe expected for the next 6 months. I read there are 6 on each route.
resters
I predicted this:
blindriver
So is congestion pricing working? I can't get a straight answer from googling.
LeafItAlone
>So is congestion pricing working? I can't get a straight answer from googling.
There are so many aspects of a policy like this, you have to be specific on what you mean by “working”.
Also, IMO, it’s too early to tell what the effects are going to be. Like everything else, people will react one way initially and then may soften later on.
donohoe
I would say Yes but its still very early days.
objektif
I was very skeptical of the congestion pricing policy but I have to confess that it frigging worked. Based on my observations it significantly reduced traffic not only in lower Manhattan but also in NJ coming into Holland Tunnel. It does not change the fact though that this was done more so as a money grab by the MTA.
righthand
I think this “it’s a money grab by the MTA” mentality is ignorant of the fact that no one thinks it was ever not a money grab. There is money to be grabbed by charging the drivers who put wear and tear on the streets. Manhattanites said “yes do this we don’t want the health effects from constant traffic, incentivize them not too drive in”. Drivers said “you can’t grab my money”. Manhattanites said “fine then don’t drive in”.
A money grab isn’t a bad thing, it’s a smart move for a highly romanticized city where space is precious.
objektif
It is a bad thing if you are simply going to waste it. I am happy to be proven wrong again but MTA has a consistent track record of doing that.
n144q
> It does not change the fact though that this was done more so as a money grab by the MTA.
Even if that were true, I have absolutely no problem with MTA grabbing some well deserved money.
mjmsmith
It charges people for the privilege of driving their car into the densest part of the largest city in the country. They could take all the money and burn it, and it still would have been worth doing.
savrajsingh
As far as I can tell, no money goes to improving transit between New Jersey and New York
donohoe
I think that was because NJ rejected the revenue deal as they pushed back against congestion pricing.
For example: https://nyc.streetsblog.org/2024/12/18/nj-refusing-generous-...
My hope is this will change as NJ accepts the outcome and benefits from it too.
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mjmsmith
Perhaps that will change when the price goes up in a few years, assuming Phil Murphy gives up on frivolous lawsuits and asking the president to stick his nose in.
zombiwoof
When does Trump claim he fixed it
dhdjruf
Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, or celebrities, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. Videos of pratfalls or disasters, or cute animal pictures. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic.
Karma please. I think crime is down on NY subways because Daniel penny got aquited of his murder charge. Showing that you too can murder obnoxious drug addicts and only be financially ruined but not imprisoned.
147 reported crimes in a month in NYC's very busy subway. That's it.
Don't let social media fool you. The US is not becoming a crime ridden cesspool, the only stinking I smell is from scaremongers that profit from your fear.