Tech takes the Pareto principle too far
50 comments
·January 23, 2025blululu
While I appreciate that the author put in the time and effort to write this, I have to say that I disagree with pretty much all of this.
Beyond quibbling about specific points, the MVP and the Vertical Slice are functionally similar they totally different in their purpose. Video Games are generally competing for a slice of a large preexisting market. The test is whether it can compete against existing products. A new to the world software start up is trying to serve a need that is currently unserved. The test is whether there is any market at all for this product (PMF). The 80/20 rule is about getting some validation that the thing you are building is worth building in the first place - not that it can be done, but that it should be done.
There aren't a ton of specific examples listed, but the images might insinuate some products that the author has in mind. I would just point out that Magic Leap, Humane were both hardware products that spent >5 years in development. They cam out as completed fully finished products that were complete by any standard. The problem wasn't that these products shipped with missing features, it was that nobody wanted what they were selling (see also the Apple Vision Pro, which is technically phenomenal in terms of design/engineering/manufacturing, but not really very useful). These products did the opposite of the Lean Methodology and show the risk of trying something brand new and not validating the assumptions as quickly as possible.
bruce511
>> A new to the world software start up is trying to serve a need that is currently unserved.
Well, yes in some cases. In lots of others it's just another implementation of existing software. Oh, you're building another food delivery app, because the current one is missing feature xxx?
This doesn't make them bad, the world is full of different contexts, and providing a solution tailored to a specific context is valuable.
But most startups are not "novel". Even in a novel space (like self driving cars) there are a bunch of companies in that space (basically competing for VC money. )
I'm very much in the MVP camp - if anything I'm more extreme- I'm in the "show me a market and how to reach them before coding anything" camp.
cjblomqvist
There are other parts than the product that can the innovation for a startup. Very few things are novel product wise when they hit it big. Innovation can be bringing existing business model to a new market for example. Then you should most likely 80/20 that new thing.
pflenker
I think it’s also worth mentioning that the author fundamentally misunderstands a MVP. A vertical slice video game presentation _is_ a kind of MVP, and there are tons of anecdotes e.g. from the E3 that tell us just how minimal these can be. MVPs take different shapes and forms, a polished but limited video game level is no different than a polished landing page with functionality limited to e.g. sign up.
caseyy
The most equivalent milestone to MVP in games is first playable (FP) or prototype. This is done at first pass/L1/greybox quality.
Vertical slice (VS) is a type of beautiful corner — this is done at production quality.
The purpose of FP is to prove the game loop and that a game is worth producing — that it is viable, or you could say that it has reached the minimum viable state. The purpose of VS is to try out the entire production process and test burndowns, etc.
I can confirm, as someone who has worked in games for decades, that the author understands it correctly.
FP in automotive would be a prototype car, VS in automotive would be the first factory produced car. VS in games often marks the end of pre-production and a shift of priorities from iterating and experimenting to producing bulk content. MVP would be much earlier.
Then in another sense, MVP is already marketable and commercially viable. But a game is that neither at VS nor FP. So if you look at MVP from that perspective, it is not even close to either VS or FP. It would be like somewhere beyond around alpha. In any case, MVP != VS :)
The MVP concept doesn’t work with game production that well because it’s a hit driven industry where most of the costs go into producing the hit. Like in movies, music, TV and book publishing — there are many stages of green-lighting before a product is first made available to the market as going from zero to market is where the bulk of the costs are. Going zero to market MVP as the first green-light check would be quite expensive ($50M for market leading VR/handheld, $100M for market leading console and Windows games minimum spent by the time a game is shown to the players) and risky. So instead, we start green-lighting and reviewing the prototype when <$2M is spent in most cases.
Cthulhu_
I'd argue that an MVP is a minimal game with limited features - say, a platform game where you can walk and jump and finish the game, whereas a vertical slice is the complete experience, walk, jump, collect items, fight, achievements, etc, but the story is just a concept and there's only one level.
In other software, MVP is what you can go live with to all of your customers (often replacing something existing and omitting half the existing features to much chagrin).
the_mitsuhiko
To deliver a vertical slice you also create hacks left and right and they quite often then later stand in the way of actually delivering a proper product. I remember the blog post by Ron Gilbert where he presented Da Vinci's Vertical Slice [1] and it still sits with me as one of the best way to present the issues.
A vertical slice is not an MVP because people would never consider it minimally viable. It's a tiny product but it's completely polished and it's for a consumer of one: the publisher.
TimK65
The complete polish is the author's very point, alongside the fact that most software products never get that complete polish.
globular-toast
> Video Games are generally competing for a slice of a large preexisting market. The test is whether it can compete against existing products. A new to the world software start up is trying to serve a need that is currently unserved.
I feel like it's completely the opposite. A new game doesn't need to "replace" old games. People have played those games. It only needs to be new and good enough to get people's attention.
But tools usually are replacing something existing. Tech that actually creates new possibilities is few and far between. The internet is one example of that. Can you think of another? I think most new tech is aiming to replace older tech that is currently used for those problems.
awesome_dude
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dang
Let's not bother with that please. We want curious conversation here. Posting interesting and curious things matters infinitely more than spelling.
Of course it's always fine to ask for clarification when necessary.
awesome_dude
I want to be clear on what the idea being conveyed is, I'm guessing one thing, but the poster says another.
That's a bad thing?
blululu
Fair point. I could have and should have done better. Sadly the edit window has passed otherwise I would clean up the original. In a sense, this more or less represents the core purpose of an MVP in action. The author might take the same lesson and revisit this essay in light of the feedback here (or just abandon it as a misstep that is not worth the effort to refine). I was sincere in saying that I appreciate the effort to get something out and start a conversation. While I disagree with most of the essay, there is certainly something to be said for striving to produce high quality work in everything we do. An MVP mindset can be an excuse for not holding ourselves to the highest standard (case in point, me posting a thing with half a dozen typos).
awesome_dude
Thanks, I didn't mean it as a dig, I just wanted to be sure that what I was guessing was being said was what you actually meant.
isoprophlex
Who cares. The meaning is apparent and the structure is coherent. A well written comment, so these things seem too minor to call out IMO.
What's more, these days if you include some strategic typos, you help convince me that you're not a lazy slop-poster, or an outright bot.
awesome_dude
ChatGPT can you write me a response that includes enough typos to look human, but not enough that I look like a prince from Nigeria tracking down relatives to give them money?
throwup238
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niemandhier
Software that is critical is not build like that.
Medical device control software is not build like that, drone flight control is not build like that, power plant safety is not build like that.
The problem that I noticed in the recent years is: People see the fast dev cycles for non critical software and think they can replicate it in areas where it really does not fit.
I guess that’s how we ended up with Teslas self driving.
I am a bit worried that ai seems to be build like that, using development cycles fit for a convenience appliance for what could be used as a weapon.
mrkeen
I always wonder where the devs come from who end up doing important work.
Seniority doesn't mean anything if a dev's 20 years has been spent flinging crap over the wall and then wondering how to keep up with all the support tickets being filed.
How does one get onto the "software is suppose to work" career track.
Cthulhu_
> How does one get onto the "software is suppose to work" career track.
Boring companies that have had IT for a long time; industries like government, taxes, energy, administration, CRM, insurance, pensions, banking, etc. You won't get recruiters knocking on your doorstep to come and work for those though, and you'll possibly be working with 10+ year old tech and development practices.
Animats
Go into database internals, or flight control, or hard real time operating systems. Those are areas where it has to work.
lsy
There’s a conflation going on here. Pareto can be good engineering—a product that solves 80% of use cases at 20% of the cost is a great efficiency: tax prep software for simple tax returns only; a minimalist photo sharing site with few social features; a phone with a great UI and no user-installable apps.
This gets conflated with products that are 80% reliable across all their tasks (LLMs, brittle software). That makes it difficult for users to rely on the product, because occasionally a failure will happen, and the user can’t build a mental model of what works and doesn’t.
MisterKent
That's not pareto. That's just finding a niche of people who would prefer more focused products.
Tax prep software for simple returns only is an entire product. Adding support for the other 20% would lose your initial base's interest.
Tax software that aims to solve all problems whose MVP is it handles 80% of people's tax returns is the pareto the author is talking about. But the real complexity is the other 20%.
Pareto as a minimalism process for focused product development is not engineering (good or bad).
Forgetting pareto and believing (or lying) that you are truly 80% of the way there is a big problem in engineering and funding. The author is correct in that.
shswkna
In terms of economics and utility, the last 80% of effort produces 20% of the result. But the last 80% give us something much more that isn’t quantified: The feeling of having completed something of value, and having done it properly, carries an inherent value that surpasses the last 20% output. It is unquantifiable and priceless. This is when work or products become timeless and truly valuable. Not to mention that feeling of satisfaction and completeness of taking an accomplishment to that level.
ffitch
this satisfaction sells. there are companies built on the premise that after the last 1% of effort the sales skyrocket. the marketing narrative of having a complete, high quality product helps to stand out.
jwrallie
Exactly, the extra effort to complete it is worth it, but it is costly. I think this can be explored in a positive way by selling incomplete things cheaper to the end user while using this money to sustain the development of the last 20%. I think Minecraft is a well known example of applying this model that was fair for both the developers and end users.
Cthulhu_
While I don't believe Minecraft was the first, it did set the stage for the early access model of development, which fits in great with agile development practices and sustainable practices as the developers can release their vertical slice or MVP, then continue development and correct it based on customer feedback. One example of that is Factorio that has been in development for over a decade now, providing value (enjoyable gameplay) the whole time while also getting continuous development and new features as well as a huge and lively modding community, which in itself translated into their major DLC (based on one of the bigger and more popular mods, they hired the developer and probably a few more people from the modding community).
They're "finished" with it now though, after years of weekly updates they've gone quiet in November. But, they're also working on a new game.
fmbb
Minecraft has been rebuilt multiple times (Java, PS3, Bedrock) and is still not done.
I have not seen the code bases from the inside but I would be very surprised if not a lot of it has been touched in recent years.
I firmly believe any sense of accomplishment comes from what you give players, not how ”complete” your implementation is.
latency-guy2
For yourself, sure. But likely not for your users. In fact, I would bet Pareto is not extreme enough in this scenario.
E.g. Excel or git, or their potential eventual successors. Former and latter has largely being the same commands and feature set used by 99% of users since V1. They are now old, storied projects with enhancements and features/improvements that go decades long, and even inspired or spun out new products/projects out of the ideas built within.
For the article itself, Pareto exists as a reminder that work expended is rarely if ever equal to results produced. There are instances where it pays off. But you always pay a price. Make sure you're willing to pay that price.
Sometimes a chair with 3 legs is all you need or care for. That 4th leg might give you more balance in an uneven plane, but I work in a decently flat garage and I'm not paying the premium for that 4th leg.
bigmattystyles
I feel like every concept can be taken too far or is expected to perfectly encapsulate every situation.
The few principles I live by are vague to avoid that predicament-
1. Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good 2. Under promise, over deliver 3. Graveyards are full of indispensable men
1 took me a long time to really learn
2 In my case, where I've sucked at estimations, it's really not over deliver, but deliver my under promise.
3 is a De Gaulle quote and my favorite - when I think I can't be replaced because I've had an ego boost from a recent accomplishment. Alternatively, it can also be interpreted as 'the world goes on'.
froddd
That quote is Georges Clemenceau, not Charles De Gaulle. He was a French politician, but long before De Gaulle.
openrisk
Good post even if only for making the term "vertical slice" more broadly known.
Clearly the applicability of this alternative in other domains might not be as direct as in gaming software but its an interesting way to think about how to structure deliverables on the way to the "1.0" release.
In other words thinking of horizontal and vertical slice chunks of work, where horizontal means perfecting one functionality that applies across all product components (may not be visible to end-user), while vertical is perfecting all functionalities of one component that is visible to the end user.
knowhy
> I think that the Pareto Principle is technically true in a lot of fields, but I also feel our society would be a lot better off if we didn’t know about it.
I doubt that. From what I understand Vilfredo Pareto introduced it to describe the existing allocation of wealth in Italy on the brink of fascism. He claimed that the crops in his garden followed this principle. I highly doubt that that can be replicated. Ever since people refer to the Pareto principle when they observe a 80/20 distribution. Like it is some kind of natural law. But it is not. At least I have yet to see a scientific explanation why a 80/20 distribution would have any kind of special meaning. Just because some distributions are 80/20 doesn't mean there is anything special about it, a lot of distributions are not 80/20.
So I think society would be better off if people would stop acting like it is a natural law and there is nothing to change about it.
Paereto distribution is dangerous since it is applied to justify hierarchies in society. And it is just not a good justification.
gunian
If I had around 8-12 weeks to live and have a project that is 5% complete what would the right allocation of resources be?
Justta
First 20% of effort will finish 80% of the work. Second 20% effort will finish 16% of the 20% left.Totally 96% will be finished.
scarab92
If the MVP finds product market fit and the market is large enough, then the economic incentive to finish the remaining 20% will exist.
If the market isn’t large enough, then the customer still got 80% of the value whereas in the authors idealised world, they likely wouldn’t have gotten anything at all, since the minimum cost to develop it was 5x higher (assuming 80/20 holds).
Overall it seems we’re better off with startups following the Pareto principal than not following it, and the authors real issue is just with bad product management decisions afterwards.
emsal
Doesn't this fundamentally misunderstand the Pareto principle? The 80% and 20% of causes in standard examples don't refer to portions of a sequential effort, but rather slices of competing agents/producers/customers in an economic system. Like, 20% of clients account for 80% of sales, that kind of thing.
minitoar
Seems analogous to me. “20% of the functionality (in a product) is 80% of the work (to implement it)”
video games are guilty of this too, and the proliferation of Unity and Unreal is partly due to an overoptimization for prototypes