Russia's Hidden War Debt

It means official Russian shipment of oil has decreased, but what takes its place is the growth of ‘shadow’ tankers. And that reduces G7+ shipping industry’s leverage over Russia. It's in the article linked above. Most of the shadow tankers have helped Russia's oil trade stay alive https://apnews.com/article/russia-sanctions-shadow-fleet-oil..., mainly due to Chinese entities. But recently EU has put more sanctions on China for that https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-adopts-new-russia-sa...

The co-mingling of Russian and Chinese naval forces is also very evident recently, with the recent cutting of European underwater cable. Are Russia and China conducting undersea sabotage? | DW News https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ObgVV-HJtI

The US started this war ~$30 trillion in debt, with the worlds largest military budget by a big margin. Colour me sceptical that billions more dollars will help. The US tried that, it didn't work out. Last I saw, the interest on the debt was higher than its military spending; from the peanut gallery it looks more like more spending will get them a classic over-extension and collapse.

The US wants to live in a backwards world where massive debtors can sustain wars indefinitely but creditors will get exhausted. It'd be great for them if that works, but I'd tag that sort of thinking as a big contributing factor in Trump returning to the White House. They don't seem to have the juice to pull a war with Russia off.

Why are you testing loyalties? What roenxi does is the same speculation that is done daily by the U.S. state department and the CIA. It is tiresome in 2025.

Well I suppose the ideal state would be that people conclude war is expensive and brutal then we enter a sort of global pacifist state. But if you want me to get myself in to trouble I'm happy to oblige because someone has to keep saying it:

1) Ukraine shouldn't have been stationing CIA bases and taking military aid from the US before the war. It was stupid strategy and eventually got them invaded.

2) They should have surrendered on day 1. That would have gotten them a bad deal but not so many people dying.

3) They should still surrender on day 1,050. That'd get them a much worse deal and they've suffered who knows how many 100,000s of casualties for nothing. But it'd at least be over.

4) If we extrapolate from the poor quality of the Ukrainian leadership's decisions so far the worst case is the other side of the coin flip on things like:

> The U.S. intelligence pointed to a 50% chance that Putin would use tactical nukes...

~ https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-putin-biden-nu...

and there are a lot of deaths. I mean, hopefully Bob Woodward is a known liar because that is not a can of worms to open over questions like whether Moscow controls Kyiv. Many of us have lived in a world where Moscow controled Kyiv, it isn't that wildly new. While terrible it just isn't that big an issue. We've coped with the US invading multiple random countries in the Middle East, and while it is icky and unpleasant it is not as bad as the tactical nuke taboo breaking or something like the million casualties we're seeing in the Ukraine war from the West's policy of escalation.

I actually think the current approach was a deliberate strategy.

Rather than help Ukraine quickly win the war they prefer to slow bleed Russia to help their aims in Syria, Iran, Taiwan etc.

This directly conflicts with numerous firsthand accounts of the Biden administration, as reported by journalist Bob Woodward in his most recent book War. In his reporting, Biden is hands on and directly involved with foreign policy. In one account, Jake Sullivan's own wife listened in on a daily briefing call with the President and came away from it saying she wished the world could "see this version of the president," because he was so sharp and focused.

Regarding Ukraine, Biden was the one who made the decision not to get the US directly involved in the war. Sullivan even had to play devil's advocate in Biden's decision, because he and the CIA chief thought it was a horrible idea to announce to the world that we were committing to zero troops on the ground. One of Biden's biggest beliefs is that "great powers don't bluff," though, so it was important for Biden to clearly communicate the limits of US engagement in the conflict.

He wanted the Ukrainians to know (according to the reporting in the book) that the US would supply and support them, but the cavalry would not be charging over the hill to save the day. If some horrible event happened in Ukraine, he knew that his generals, the media, and the public would look to him and say "well, don't you think now is the time we should get American boots on the ground? Why aren't you acting?"

Could you share a link to the article, please?

Russia didn't invade until Trump left office because Trump was doing his best to weaken or destroy NATO.

> the US national debt grew rapidly when it made the mistake of directly invading countries instead of just financing partners

What does this refer to? We invaded Canada in 1812 [1] and Mexico in 1846 [2]. We’ve been “directly invading countries” for longer than we’ve been on fiat.

Debt:GDP spiked in WWII and then began a more-gradual increase from the 1980s [3]. Our debt has more-diverse causes than military spending.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_1812#Invasions_of_Upp...

[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican%E2%80%93American_War

[3] https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/natio...

> tell me more about 20%

They said they “don’t think USA is dealing with 20%+ interest rates like Russia is,” emphasis mine.

(Russian mortgage rates are around 30% for general population and 3 to 6% for “IT workers, families with young children and buyers in Russia's far east” eligible for state-subsidised mortgages, which comprise “70% of all mortgage loans” [1].)

> 85square apartment costs around 100k$, it's not a problem

That’s 7x average salary [2]. The equivalent in America is $440k [3]. That’s $1,300/sq ft, comparable to New York City [4].

[1] https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/imminent-russian-rate...

[2] https://www.timechamp.io/blogs/the-average-salary-in-russia-...

[3] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/AWI.html

[4] https://www.silive.com/data/2024/12/nyc-has-most-expensive-h...

> $100k in Russia in cash

> its not a problem

Look, mom, I’m trolling!