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We Can Terraform the American West

We Can Terraform the American West

27 comments

·October 26, 2024

Animats

Didn't we have the super-cheap solar powered desalinization guy on HN about two months ago?

Each year, MIT announces they solved solar desalination:

- 2021 [1]

- 2022 [2]

- 2023 [3]

- 2024 [4]

[1] https://news.mit.edu/2020/passive-solar-powered-water-desali...

[2] https://news.mit.edu/2022/solar-desalination-system-inexpens...

[3] https://news.mit.edu/2023/desalination-system-could-produce-...

[4] https://news.mit.edu/2024/solar-powered-desalination-system-...

aporetics

Yikes. The sheer, unacknowledged hubris of this is bewildering. Let’s just remake the arid west?

jackyinger

Truly, even if we were to disregard the ecological and social impacts on existing inhabitants, the energy required would be extreme. And thankfully that alone is enough to make this simply a fantasy.

I actually quite like the arid west, if anything we should be letting it return to aridity as current water use (I.e. rerouting a lot of the Colorado River to California) is well known to be on shaky ground at the least. If you don’t like arid areas move somewhere else.

johnnyjeans

It wasn't the lack of water that made Florida inhospitable, it was the climate. Florida's population explosion precisely coincides with the adoption of air conditioning in American households, in the post-war period[1]. Very few people want to live in a place where it's so hot and humid all the time.

> During the last ice age, only 10,000 years ago

We're still in an ice age. An ice age is simply when the earth's poles have an ice cover.

[1] - https://countrydigest.org/florida-population/

jefftk

> An ice age is simply when the earth's poles have an ice cover.

Are you sure? I'm not seeing that definition anywhere, and it looks like even in interglacial periods there's permanent ice in both hemispheres: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age#Glacials_and_interglac...

johnnyjeans

Interglacial periods are a part of ice ages. Even tells you right at the beginning of that article.

> Individual pulses of cold climate within an ice age are termed glacial periods (glacials, glaciations, glacial stages, stadials, stades, or colloquially, ice ages), and intermittent warm periods within an ice age are called interglacials or interstadials.

You can actually see the definition (albeit a little verbose) as the first sentence of that article:

> An ice age is a long period of reduction in the temperature of Earth's surface and atmosphere, resulting in the presence or expansion of continental and polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers.

On a technicality, you can get me for not mentioning the snow capped mountains part, I'd concede on that. That part is actually news to me. All the same, the earth is colder than it usually is. [1]

An interesting thing I like to bounce around in my head: Could we live in the interior of the Pangean super continent if we had to? Interesting stepping stone between Earth's current, very mild climate, and trying to live in a place like Venus. Definitely would have to live like mole people.

[1] - https://www.climate.gov/media/11332

jefftk

Mmm, looks like you're right. Sorry!

alehlopeh

The problem with South Florida is that it had too much water.

quickthrowman

> Florida's population explosion precisely coincides with the adoption of air conditioning in American households

This is also the case for Arizona, Phoenix in particular.

Air conditioning is one of the great inventions of the 20th century, it’s up there with the airplane, antibiotics, transistor, and shipping container.

kbutler

Especially if you include refrigeration for foods.

OutOfHere

No, thanks. People are destructive to the planet in every way possible, and we don't need more. It's not as if we'll solve the mysteries of existence twice as fast by having twice as many people. If anything, having double the consequential pollution will halve the speed of discovery.

johnnyjeans

I agree. Megaprojects that make large changes to highly chaotic systems never end well. From Mao's Four Pests to the ongoing wildfire crises that plague the west coast thanks to all the terraforming California has undergone (exacerbated by ongoing climate change)

To say nothing of the fact that this is wanton environmental destruction. Just because something is arid, it's alright to completely change it? And for what? Having lived in Dallas, which is not unlike Nevada but more humid and wet, it's not a proper place to live. People jump from pool of air conditioning to pool of air conditioning. You go outside and walk for just 5 minutes, and you're completely soaked in sweat. Shade does not help. Lack of concrete does not help, you can drive 2 hours into the middle of nowhere and it's still like being in a preheated oven. You can't really do anything fun outside for half the year because you'll get heat stroke, or generally just be extremely stinky.

If you want to make use of empty land, going to the miserably cold uninhabited swaths of Canada are far wiser. You can always bundle up, but you can only take off so many layers of clothing.

Bjorkbat

Kind of reminds me of an idle thought I have every now and then. Between the sheer difficulty of establishing any kind of foothold on Mars, and the vast amount of uninhabited land, it’s curious that more thought hasn’t been given into the much easier task of making the empty parts of the planet more bearable.

Alas, the list of reasons to live in the Great Plains is very short, which is also why I’m kind of skeptical of terraforming the American West. You can make existing major cities more livable, sure, but don’t expect a surge of people moving to Montana or Wyoming.

By contrast, Los Angeles and Miami have ocean access. Terraforming coastline is a no-brainer.

xnx

Colonizing Mars is a joke. Earth was more habitable the day after the asteroid hit that Mars is now.

jamiek88

Wow. What a project that would be!

Really interesting read, and while the numbers are a little hand wavy even if they were out on the cost by an order of magnitude it would still be very cheap.

The USA has lost its appetite for these mega projects, sadly.

c0nfused

I think the issue is that when you look at it from the modern perspective of profit the economics don't work out.

If look at it as a way to spend huge piles of money to subsidize a lifestyle it suddenly is less charming

Mistletoe

Good? Do you understand the ecosystems and national parks that would be destroyed by this? Once those are gone they are gone. We don’t even need this nonsense, the population is contracting. We will have nothing but empty space in inhabited spaces already.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59899

jarebear6expepj

Won’t somebody please think of the sage grouse?

siliconc0w

I love Casey's stuff - just incredibly detailed, ambitious and reminds you of what the country used to do when it set its mind to it. His new company is across the street where they built the SR-71 which is fitting.

runako

> We’re missing 300 million Americans

I love this idea, and would be comfortable pushing the number even higher. The cool part about the US is it's relatively unpopulated as compared to European countries.

We could probably fit another 200 million or so people in the eastern half of the country, just by bringing it to the level of density of, say, the UK. If we were willing to live as densely as the Dutch, perhaps we could add 300 million in the eastern half.

akira2501

> of, say, the UK.

of, say, any small island. These dynamics are unnatural modes of compensation for other inconveniences.

> as densely as the Dutch

or, say, people who live under the level of the sea itself.

akamaka

Your proposal is fairly modest compared to some of the ideas out there.

In his wildly enthusiastic 1860 book The Central Gold Region, William Gilpin claimed that the Mississipi Basin could support at population of 1.2 billion people, and was destined to become the “world’s amphitheatre”, with all of the world’s trade running through it in a grand “Asiatic and European Railway”.

kibwen

Why? Honestly, why? There's so much uninhabited land out that isn't uninhabitable, which is already more land than we'll ever need for the sake of putting human habitats on. Go move to the great lakes if you want a combination of remote wilderness and an infinite supply of free fresh water.

Sabinus

Modern desal uses chemicals in the water to help prevent mineral buildup within the plant, and these chemicals are present in the effluent. I wonder if the author has accounted for this pollution?

hindsightbias

The cartels should just build nukes in Mexico and pump desalinated water north. Win-win.

downvotetruth

The foreign legion should just build nukes in France and transfer electricity east across the Maginot Line.