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The era of jobs is ending

The era of jobs is ending

135 comments

·December 8, 2025

PoorRustDev

"They haven’t seen the latest models that quietly chew through documents, write code, design websites, summarize legal contracts, and generate decent strategy decks faster than a middle manager can clear their throat.

They haven’t seen a model hold a complex conversation, remember context, suggest workflows, generate visuals, write scripts, and debug itself in one continuous flow."

You're absolutely right! I haven't seen these.

sevensor

Hogwash. Find me a “lights out” factory. They don’t exist.

All your stuff is made by people. Often people with fancy machines, but people nonetheless. And the higher the degree of automation, the more non fungible skills you require of those people.

The pump in a vat of yogurt is cavitating. You can’t slow it down without endangering food safety. You can’t adjust the mix without affecting the final product. Somebody who understands all that needs to install a new impeller.

Stamped aircraft parts are coming off the line 500 microns thick. Somebody has to recognize that there’s a problem with the hydraulic cushion and fix it.

I could go on and on and on. There are few things I get ranty about on the internet, but pretending that physical world problems are solved by automation is one of them. You’re replacing a hard problem with another hard problem, with a side effect of higher productivity. Pretending Morlocks don’t exist doesn’t make them go away.

kevlened

> Find me a “lights out” factory. They don’t exist.

"Inside China's 'dark factories' where robots run the production lines" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftY-MH5mdbw

"China’s Dark Factories: So Automated, They Don't Need Lights" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCBdcNA_FsI

sevensor

Seriously? They show people on the floor within the first 30 seconds of the video. I guess it’s technically “lights out” if you make people work in the dark, but I meant, and the article implied, production without jobs.

AbstractH24

Your job won't be replaced by AI, it'll be replaced by someone who knows how to use AI.

There is still a whole market for clothing; its just not led by people who use a loom.

_DeadFred_

Huh? The facilities guy at the local nationally distributed yogurt based product company just swaps out impellers when told by the machine as it identifies there is an issue. He has less skill than your typical HVAC guy, and zero interests in the nuance and zero input about 'best yogurt cavitating' practices.

The aircraft part is measured by Faro or some other tool. The person wielding the Faro just follows the QA instructions and marks if things are red/green. Another FARO type product measures the fixtures/etc for compliance. If they don't match, a fixtures consultant is brought in to make them match.

Other than those that happened to do the initial setup/machine/fixture construction, the people in the actual plant don't really have much non-fungible skills in your example, and they definitely don't have power/permission to go tweaking things using their personal non-fungible skills.

sevensor

I’m confused about how you’ve characterized factory work. It’s nothing like the factories I’ve been in, so I’m assuming this is an imagined future state? Hope do you propose we get there?

_DeadFred_

My experience if anything is dated and historical 2010s era.

mid-kid

This post is AI sludge and by the third bullet list I couldn't keep reading. This is stuff I deeply resonate with but jesus christ please respect my time and don't drown me in extremely verbose prose goop.

frizlab

Jokes on the article, I open it in Safari reader and use the Summarize (with AI) button.

hellisothers

What indicates that to you?

aoeusnth1

Lots of "it's not X. It's Y."

Bullet points I can forgive, it's a common blog post writing style. But the ranty prose here definitely has a whiff of silicon.

marcus_holmes

taps the sign:

"Humans do not exist to be economic assets. The economy exists to provide for humans"

tbrownaw

The economy is an abstraction over humans interacting with eachother.

deepfriedchokes

Not according to our current economic system.

In Capitalism, the economy exists to provide for Capital.

marcus_holmes

We can fix that. The usual method is war and/or revolution. See Piketty [0] for details.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_in_the_Twenty-First_Ce...

Ferret7446

The economy is not a charity, nor is it a person. But if we're going to personify it, then it exists for the benefit of those who actively participate in it. It is indifferent to those who do not participate in it.

Most humans do not see themselves as existing to provide for others who either cannot or won't provide for themselves. As stated above, the economy is not a charity, it is about equal exchange. Those who have nothing to offer will receive nothing in return.

BobbyJo

> The economy is not a charity, nor is it a person. But if we're going to personify it, then it exists for the benefit of those who actively participate in it. It is indifferent to those who do not participate in it.

I think this completely ignores the role of government in the economy. By virtue of being born today, you are forced to participate in the economy. The government spends tax dollars in the economy, which it either collects from you, or spends on you, and the voting body has decided that, to some degree, the economy is indeed a charity.

> Most humans do not see themselves as existing to provide for others who either cannot or won't provide for themselves.

I'd disagree with the first part of that statement. Most people see themselves as good, and therefore see some level of responsibility for helping those that cannot provide for themselves.

> As stated above, the economy is not a charity, it is about equal exchange. Those who have nothing to offer will receive nothing in return.

Again, this ignores that the economy is, at least partially, structured by a government.

ausbah

sorry i was born disabled, or purposely excluded from the economy due to societal discrimination

fpia

disabled how? you clearly can read and write

majormajor

> The economy is not a charity, nor is it a person. But if we're going to personify it, then it exists for the benefit of those who actively participate in it. It is indifferent to those who do not participate in it.

> Most humans do not see themselves as existing to provide for others who either cannot or won't provide for themselves. As stated above, the economy is not a charity, it is about equal exchange. Those who have nothing to offer will receive nothing in return.

The problem that this has run into throughout history has been the existence of those who don't take kindly to rules that appear to be there just to push them aside.

An economy that chooses to exclude the majority of the population as "no longer needed" as so much dystopian AI-true-believer babble these days does is going to lead to some major issues when the excluded decide they don't want to simply be excluded.

Society historically does not help those that the economy leaves behind exclusively out of the goodness of its heart - it also does it for self-preservation.

satisfice

You want a world where the streets are safe and clean, not choked with homeless people and corpses thereof. So, this “tough love” bullshit is not going to fly.

The slums of Mumbai are just a taste of what’s to come in America, at this rate.

Billionaires, take heed.

jonahbenton

Yeah, jobs suck, and AI can do all kinds of things, but this really misunderstands...just about everything.

Pluribus is a more interesting meditation.

OgsyedIE

The point of jobs is for those who don't own appreciating assets to sell their work in exchange for income in the form of payment from those who do own appreciating assets.

This article misses the key problem with the end of jobs. How else are 98% of the human population going to get income? With the coming of drones and old-timey 1900s chemical weapons they are probably no longer equipped as a class to win a military contest over redistribution against the asset holders.

Much like replacing religion with nothing has turned out, replacing jobs with nothing is going to be bad at best.

tbrownaw

> The point of jobs is for those who don't own appreciating assets to sell their work in exchange for income in the form of payment from those who do own appreciating assets.

As an obvious trivial counter-example, plenty of people have jobs doing lawn care for other people who's income also comes from a job.

palmotea

>> The point of jobs is for those who don't own appreciating assets to sell their work in exchange for income in the form of payment from those who do own appreciating assets.

> As an obvious trivial counter-example, plenty of people have jobs doing lawn care for other people who's income also comes from a job.

That's not a counter-example, it's just nit-picking on the phrasing and missing the point: the lawn-care people get their income from "those who do own appreciating assets," just with a middleman or two in between.

garbawarb

Who needs jobs if you have food and internet entertainment in abundance?

bluSCALE4

What food? You mean ultra processed garbage that will kill you?

majormajor

A whole shit-ton of people in developed countries would not be happy with that, demonstrated by those:

1) choose not to simply coast on the social safety net, and seek out jobs for status and additional things than those. why do they do those when by historical standards they could be wildly comfortable without the bullshit work?

2) do coast (opting to just go on disability, say) but are generally extremely unhappy about it in ways that frequently cause problems for the rest of the people

3) opt out entirely from the social safety net and chose to try to live on the streets instead, whether for a desire for some sort of freedom or because of poor impulse control caused by addiction or similar (which also frequently leads to problems for the rest of the people)

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s3r3nity

Can't tell if this is sarcasm or not.

These don't magically appear - people have to create / store / distribute those things, and/or develop the science / engineering to do so.

Squeeze2664

Can you imagine someone willing to do those things because of some reason other than monetary gain, as it would be in OP's world? How many people currently stuck in Jobs would work toward accomplishing these things with the idea of ending world hunger, because they _want_ to do it, instead of having to do it because they have student loans and bills to pay?

OgsyedIE

People have to have the buying power to support the chain you describe. If the buying power of a population vanishes, such as by being made superfluous, they get a large population reduction whether they like it or not.

skeledrew

And eventually all this will be primarily automated, with a few humans contributing because they love to develop things in science, engineering, etc.

goatlover

Who is paying for the food (including delivery or transportation) and various streaming services?

nextworddev

Internet entertainment will be abundant on purpose.

Not sure about quality food.

garbawarb

Who said anything about quality? Preserved and processed foods are necessarily lower-quality but they sure are economically efficient.

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nrhrjrjrjtntbt

Their point is there is not "nothing"

As an analogy imagine you had a 6 hour driving commute each day (3 each way)

Imagine if now you move next to the office.

Will it be bad you get those 6 hours back?

If 15->9 is good then 9->0 is even better!

The problem is adjusting to that at scale. Will we get addicts or people who never leave the home? Maybe.

OgsyedIE

That's a completely incorrect mischaracterisation of the analogy.

I'm not talking about replacing a block of time with nothing, people will still have 24 hours in the day. My worry is about replacing income with nothing, because most people don't have the power to seize any income that isn't freely available.

The public takes what they're offered and can't have anything that isn't on offer. If the offer of access to food is withdrawn, the public has no recourse.

nrhrjrjrjtntbt

Right lack of income has to be dealt with UBI, or worse handouts from big companies. Why do big companies hand out? Well... we get to a point where that is ther smarter thing to do than lose consumers altogether. The incentive to be rich is to have your ideas forfilled rather than to own a home and have security (as that can be provided for all).

If you think this is madness, the analogy (yes another) is you are playing uno with people you met. They have no money. You can say well never mind we wont play. Or you can just deal the cards because they are so cheap it costs you nothing just to do that. And that is more fun. This is what post scarcity could look like.

sbinnee

I actually believe that the era of lives will come. But I can't wait for UBI. Nobody can't. Even if the era of jobs ends, for us who are living in this era, the event is not going to be a period but an ellipsis. I can't wait to see how it unfolds. Yet, I doubt that I would see the end happening in my lifetime.

skeledrew

This really hits, solidifies and expands on thoughts I've been having for a while now. So many refuse to see or acknowledge it, but we're quickly approaching a point of reckoning which will require a major overhaul of the current dominant economic system.

The labour for wage model is rapidly becoming obsolete for the many, and a way forward that doesn't necessitate people working in order to gain access to the necessities of - modern - living needs to be paved. Otherwise it'll be grim for the vast majority when global automation of value creation gets upwards of say 85%. It's already pretty grim for an appreciable, though still relatively limited, number.

jleyank

Can’t read the article due to bandwidth. If the era of jobs is over, what’s going to support the masses of people who consume? Without those people, there’s no profit from making stuff. Star Trek looks great, but there’s a whole lot of time, politics and physics that has to occur to get there.

itake

its not though... there is literally an infinite amount of work. If humans become 10,000x more efficient, then we still have infinite amount of work to do.

BobbyJo

Not necessarily true. There are non-human bottlenecks to productivity, like energy, land area, available raw materials, etc. You're assuming humans can find ways to meaningfully contribute that do not bump up against any of those constraints. R&D is probably the only area not bottlenecked by one of the above out of the gate, and most humans are ill suited for that line of work.

9rx

> most humans are ill suited for that line of work.

Based on what? Certainly there are humans with crippling disabilities that remove them from pretty much any kind of work, but of the "normally functioning" population?

Most lack the necessary attention directed towards R&D as they're too busy living out other lives in other jobs. If that's what you mean, that is a fair point. But if those jobs went away as suggested earlier, they'd have nothing else to do but turn their attention towards R&D. That current world model wouldn't apply anymore.

itake

Jobs functions will change over time. Not everyone will be able to do research roles, but robotics is far away from replacing human hands in any meaningful way. Humans need plumbers, home construction, healthcare professionals [0], teachers, judges, relationship driven roles (sales, account managers).

[0] - if robotics/ai can replace healthcare, healthcare costs would drop to zero...

skeledrew

It's not about the existence of work. It's about decoupling work from access to necessary resources.

mothballed

Sure but at some point if literally everything tangible and essentially every imaginable commercial service can be done by robots and also designed by AI better than a human, humans are basically relegated to what kind of work? Something like being the exotic dancer or baby factory for a robot factory heir, or maybe a meat sacrifice on a Ukraine-esque battlefield to fight the other group of capital holders.

marcus_holmes

UBI appears to work, in small-scale trials at least. We should try that out.

Avicebron

Has anyone figured out how to avoid everything mysteriously being repriced to account for UBI?

tbrownaw

Increase Total Factor Productivity so that there's still just as much stuff to go around even with fewer people putting in less work to make the stuff.

skeledrew

Forget UBI and implement UBS instead. Income is an unnecessary artifact in accessing services.

9rx

Every basic income trial I come across ends up being GBI rather than UBI. Which UBI trials are you looking at?

marcus_holmes

tbh I'm not sure of the difference between UBI and GBI.

Does it change the point? If we say "GBI appears to work, let's try that" is that different?

raincom

Whatever people make goes to rent/mortgage, health insurance, auto insurance, etc. The zoning rules and strict enforcement in the West make it hard to start shanty towns across countries. What is left?

GeoAtreides

>Camus talked about imagining Sisyphus happy. Maybe the point now is to take away the rock and see what he does when he’s no longer condemned to push it. Does he climb the mountain just for the view? Does he build an observatory? Does he lie in the grass and finally sleep?

Removing jobs is not like taking away the rock, it's more like making the rock way heavier.

Only God can make the rock disappear. And God is dead.

palmotea

> Democratize the machines. Public or cooperative ownership of major AI and robotics infrastructure.

If you haven't socialized the means of production when you could strike and make it stop, there's no way you're going to do so when it doesn't need you anymore.

> We can choose to be the last generation that spent its best hours under fluorescent lights, pretending this was the height of civilization.

> Or we can be the first generation that looked at the robots walking onto the factory floor, looked at the models spinning up in the cloud, and said:

>> “Good. Take the work. We’ll take the world back.”

This article is stupid. How would Mr. Economically Irrelevant Former-worker "take the world back?" He just lost whatever power over that world that he had.

This is 15 pages of trying to put lipstick on a pig.

skeledrew

> If you haven't socialized the means of production when you could strike and make it stop, there's no way you're going to do so when it doesn't need you anymore.

Way I see it, there isn't really a choice here. Once humanity gets to the point where they are literally no longer needed to produce value due to automation, the means of production will be - logically - accessible to all who survive. Those who don't have access will die. And the fewer the survivors, the less relevant the purpose of said means. The means will always "need" people to validate its continued existence.

palmotea

> Once humanity gets to the point where they are literally no longer needed to produce value due to automation, the means of production will be - logically - accessible to all who survive. Those who don't have access will die.

And that's the part that the AI optimists in these discussions skip over. They want to talk about this new and glorious AI-infested future, but not mention the holocaust that will happen to get there. For most people, the holocaust is the only relevant part, because they'll be destroyed in it [1]. The glorious future of abundance without work is one they'll never see [2].

[1] Most likely through grinding poverty and deprivation, which is how capitalism does it. Not gas chambers or anything.

[2] That future, like you said, a smaller group. I think eventually it will roughly consist of the nepo babies of some billionaires and a smallish group of Lumon-employees (the cultists, not the severed) who must worship them to survive.

skeledrew

Maybe I haven't encountered enough of these discussions, but I can't recall any where such was skipped over. More likely that they thought it obvious that humans would freely provide access, as there's no reason not to. Or because those deprived of access is always orders more than those with access, they'll just help themselves to the means, and the outcome will be the same. Unless those with access try to stubbornly continue the restriction. It's just a very illogical thought in an era of abundance, and so only really worth mentioning for completion.