Electric vehicle sales are booming in South America – without Tesla

I think it’s less “pivoting is hard” and more “we know what’s right and we’re not going to pivot”.

It’s not hard to have smaller R&D teams work on these problems to keep the innovation going, but most executives are out there prioritizing cost cuttings so that the shareholders get the quarterly dopamine boosts on the earnings calls.

As a general rule, the free market is not that good at basic R&D, and especially bad at infrastructure. Electric cars combine both.

I think #1 will probably play out to a certain extent. Perhaps as an oscillation between low and high as each wave knocks more gas stations out of business and refinery capacity offline. But I have to say, even low prices on gas won't make me go back -- I prefer my EVs in all regards to the ICE equivalents, with the sole exception of marathon (>450 miles per day) road trips, which is not my use case.

I hope #2 won't be the future. It's not as easy to just jack up electric prices because EVs are charging, because they are regulated, and electricity is used for way more than cars (if my napkin math is right, on average people will use around 30% more electricity if they go full electric).

I expect that as a practical matter #3 is here now, it just hasn't filtered down to retail car sales in the US yet.

I've got a Lightning and I think I like the 'converted to electric' aspect. Everything that fits on a regular ICE F-150 fits on my truck. The interior is the same (okay, some trims have a big screen, but not all do). It would be nice if it had a bit more range, but when I look at the efficiency of an R1T or a CT, I don't see that being purpose-built would automatically be a win for Ford. Pickups are not ever going to be competitive with sedans and CUVs for efficiency.

"Americans only want trucks and SUVs." (I hear people say.)

Cool. Then allow BYD non-trucks, non-SUVs into the U.S. then.

The Japanese back in the 70's showed U.S. automakers that price and mileage (in that decade anyway) were important to Americans. I suspect price is still important.

Ford is a bad example because they’ve pretty much abandoned all their non truck and transit van segments for years. Even if EVs weren’t a thing, they do not compete in any of the segments and haven’t for almost a decade. First it was Japanese and German companies eating their lunch, now it’s the Chinese.

Also, F150 lightening is such a failure. There was a recent video of it trying to haul very minimal load and it pretty much drained the battery in less than 100 miles.

> a Ford Mustang converted to electric

I agree with your comment, but I'll be a little pedantic for a minute:

As a Charger Daytona owner, I'd love to call the Mach-E a mustang, but it's really just borrowing the brand. Ford has said unequivocally that they'll never make an all-electric muscle car, which is a real shame. The Mach-E is a great car if you're turned off by a Model Y, but you wouldn't choose it over a mustang GT or a charger Daytona or a Camaro.

> a Ford Mustang converted to electric

The Mustang Mach-e isn't like any other Mustang. It just has the Mustang branding.

the mustang mach e is a purpose built EV. not a mustang with a battery back stuck in.

Yep. My Lightning is the first vehicle I've had with a spare in a number of years. Even donut spares are getting much less common, not just on EVs.

Colombians are asking that question too. My guess is that Tesla is selling them at a loss to compete against BYD. They may be sending unsold inventory from the US/Mexico market as well.

I own three electric motorcycles and respectfully disagree. You can't make tube and canvas that let a passenger survive getting t-boned by a Yukon Denali or an F-250. One high-profile accident with a mother and her child getting peeled off the road with a coal shovel are all it'll take to kill such a form factor forever.

The problem isn't the form factor you're describing, it's that you can't put those on the road with 1000+ horsepower machines that are 50 times heavier. And on top of that, a lot of people just don't want to give up their heated massage seats and connected infotainment and removable third row or whatever crap they pack in minivans these days.

Your first three paragraphs are sound.

But surely the problem with the final paragraph is the transition? Assuming the old style of vehicle remains on the road, then my lightweight one is at risk of being crushed. Only a niche minority would choose that (as a cargo bike owner, I'm also one, but I recognise most are not, with good reason.)

Unless we built a whole separate infrastructure.... We already see a lot of electric scooters using cycle lanes.

The Smart for Two existed with an internal combustion engine.

> The only reason why cars are the size and shape they are is because ICE engines couldn't be made smaller. Electric engines on the other hand are small enough that I can have the chassis of a fully functioning car be light enough to lift by one man.

Nope, the Smart existed for quite a while. Safety standards made cars slightly bigger (e.g. the new Renault Twingo is bigger than the original), but modern American "cars" are massive because that's what marketing has convinced Americans it's what they need. American vehicle manufacturers are pretty terrible at everything, and efficiency standards nudge them that way anyways, so making massive cars with high margins is a good deal for them.

In Europe there are SUVs, but the average car is a VW Golf or a Renault Clio sized. They are pretty decently sized, good visibility, can fit a family of 4, etc. Yeah, you can't haul a 50 ton campervan offroading up to Kilimanjaro, sure, but that's not what 99% of car trips are for.

> I think we will see small, light weight and intrinsically pedestrian safe cars made of tubes and canvas replace the heavy monstrosities we have now.

Renault Twizy ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Twizy ) exists, but doesn't sell all that well (compared to "normal" cars).

The Citroen Ami ( https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citro%C3%ABn_Ami_(2020) ) is pretty popular in certain places (saw a ton of them in Amsterdam and semi-rural areas in France).