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Shor's algorithm: the one quantum algo that ends RSA/ECC tomorrow

Shor's algorithm: the one quantum algo that ends RSA/ECC tomorrow

5 comments

·November 28, 2025
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fnands

*ends as soon as practical quantum computers, something which might never happen, exist.

The author mentions: > RSA-2048: ~4096 logical qubits, 20-30 million physical qubits > 256-bit ECC: ~2330 logical qubits, 12-15 million physical qubits

For reference, we are at ~100 physical qubits right now. There is a bit of nuance in the logical to physical correlation though.

Scepticism aside, the author does mention that it might be a while in the future, and it is probably smart to start switching to quantum resistant cryptography for long-running, critical systems, but I'm not a huge fan of the fear-mongering tone.

brohee

And no clear quantum Moore law emerging for the yearly increase in qbits (https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.15547)... The quantum panic pushes people to deploy immature solutions, and the remedy sure sometimes looks worse than the illness...

nottorp

You mean it will come right when AGI comes?

LadyCailin

Fusion powered AGI!

thrance

...and 100, quite useless qubits too, with insane error rates and extremely fast decoherence times.