Brexit Hit to UK Economy Double Official Estimate, Study Finds
92 comments
·November 21, 2025cjs_ac
Brexit was an economic policy decided on emotional terms: most Britons voted on the basis of I like Europe or I don't like foreigners, and economic forecasts about potential effects were just throwaway talking points to bolster those preconceived opinions. Unlike the US, we have no common vision of a destiny to manifest; unlike the Russians, we have no expansionist goals; unlike the French, our political system is an outcome of a thousand years of compromise, not blazes of revolutionary zeal. We are just an archipelago of people quietly bumbling our way from cradle to grave, buffeted by the winds of change, and taking the advantages they afford us while we can.
Brexit was a mistake, but there is no way back to the privileged position we once held in the EU, and so anyone who still wants to talk about it is just a pointless shit-stirrer.
graemep
I think you are right about people's motives, but there is more to it than economic policy. There are a lot of implications to "ever closer union".
Esophagus4
One of the proposed benefits was cutting bureaucracy and regulation (retained EU laws) that made the EU one of the worst investment and business growth environments in the world, which was a drag on UK/EU economies.
But it seems like the UK lost their political will to drop the hammer on regulation after Brexit, and they actually kept most of those legacy EU laws and only nixed a few.
UK experts: why was that? What made them lose their will?
It seemed to me once you were in for a penny, you were in for a pound and you had to go all the way to realize the benefits.
Now you just have a situation with even more regulatory complexity due to differences between the UK/EU, but the UK got none of the benefits. They’ve fallen between two stools.
shrubble
What is the impact of the “Boriswave” immigration policy on the economy, I wonder?
abm53
I’m trying to figure out if you’re asking a leading question and if so, in which direction…
epicureanideal
And especially importantly, on per capita GDP. Immigration would almost certainly cause GDP to go up, but the per capita effects are important, especially on the original population. (Qualifier added because if the original population experienced an increase in per capita median GDP they might consider it net positive even if the recent arrivals had a lower than median per capita income, who might also be satisfied if that’s still 3x what they were earning elsewhere.)
HPsquared
PPP per capita is what matters for QoL. This took a massive hit in 2008 and took years to recover, and has been pretty flat since 2019.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locat...
epicureanideal
I agree, directionally. To be even more precise we probably want an even better metric, but that’s closer yeah.
By a better metric I mean something that would even more accurately capture quality of life, healthcare outcomes, social ties, productivity within the home or family that isn’t tied to an income from an employer, etc.
graemep
Also the effects of skilled vs unskilled immigration.
One thing from the Brexit debate that people forget is that both Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage said they favour allowing skilled immigration.
echelon_musk
One thing that frustrated me around this time was that the UK's "stop the boats" campaign (although launched under Sunak) was just a lazy clone of an anti-immigration slogan first launched in Five Eyes partner Australia back in ~2013.
At the time I remember seeing a meme of Captain Cook's ship off the coast of Australia with 'Stop the Boats' stamped beneath it to highlight the hypocrisy.
nailer
To be fair the migrants on the Endeavor did have a devastating effect on the locals in much the same way some migrants to the UK have.
Edit due to rate limit: I’m unsure whether the IAmBroom person below thinks Europeans didn’t have a devastating effect on natives or whether the grooming gangs and incest related birth defects aren’t happening but either way they’re very easily proven wrong. Perhaps they just don’t understand what racism is?
IAmBroom
Anything but fair. Eggregiously racist, more like.
Havoc
Doubt it has a big impact.
Immigrants from richer western nations are net contributors to budget while those from poor countries are on average a drain. Uk locals land somewhere in between.
Brexit lead to more immigrants from poor countries but I doubt it moves the needle overall
graemep
So an unskilled worker from the EU contributes more to the economy than an African doctor?
The big change has been that it has shifted the balance from unskilled to skilled immigration. Generally you need money or skills to get a UK residence visa. Brexit removed a huge exemption to that for people from the EU.
Havoc
> So an unskilled worker from the EU contributes more to the economy than an African doctor?
Is that really what you got from my post? A brain dead apples and orange comparison?
My comment was in aggregate by origin regardless of profession or skill…
webdevver
i now buy deliveroo slop basically every day, and every day the delivery driver is a barely literate global south immigrant.
in other words, its a huge positive impact. unfortunately for the delivery driver, well, hes basically an indentured servant... i have no idea how these guys survive. especially now in 0 degree weather.
i recently started tipping them in the hopes that they don't dekulakize me in some future bolshevik overhaul (that they would be entirely justified to!)
erikgahner
Interesting to see far-right terminology being used unironically at HN.
pjc50
Can't escape it anywhere, sadly.
neogodless
Related: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45933317 Brexit reduced UK GDP by 6-8%, investments by 12-18% [pdf] (nber.org)
6 days ago | 157 comments
cuuupid
Not to just say “skill issue” but… isn’t this just a skill issue?
The main negative impact seems to be trade but the UK already has free trade agreements post-Brexit with the EU. Most of the remaining differences in hurdles are paperwork, which seems like an opportunity for automation that should be almost trivial with AI. The US has successfully automated most compliance based hurdles in the last couple years from finance to law to contracting.
Looking at the positive impacts and lack of growth from those… also skill issue?
Not having to follow regulations from the EU is also a huge boon yet the UK seems to have taken no advantage of this. Which to me is especially concerning because for years we have been hearing that Europe is lagging behind in development because of over-regulation in fields like AI, yet when freed of those shackles the UK seems to be lagging just the same.
The other positive impact heavily touted was reduced net immigration. This >could< have had a short term positive impact (heavily debatable long term cutting off access to talent pools) yet they have almost 3x’ed the reduction in immigration from the EU with an increase in immigration from other sources. The effects of this are pretty palpable as the UK now has its own flavor of nationalist movement, has not seen wage increases in advanced sectors due to supply forces in their labor market, and universities are relying on overseas students to increase tuition revenue - training a labor force that will largely churn.
The last one I’ll hit is not having to follow EU laws. After Brexit, instead of taking advantage of legislative sovereignty, the UK temporarily codified all EU law to avoid disruption. Parliament has had ~5 years to review the laws but from what I can tell has made almost no progress (~10%) and extended the expiration because… they haven’t had time to read the other laws.
So overall while I’m no type of economic analyst it would seem the problems of Brexit are not actually Brexit, but almost all competency issues. If there’s British tech talent in this thread there’s probably a billion pound opportunity in just easily automating trade paperwork or helping UKG review the remaining EU laws.
pjc50
Regulatory divergence is a cost all of its own. The main impact of Brexit is that manufacturers have to check three sets of rules rather than two and print "UKCA" next to "CE" on goods. As well as all the customs checks which appear because of divergence, including those within the UK because of the NI farming question.
The idea of growth through liberalization should have been subject to the question "which rules, exactly" before getting to the point of the referendum.
IAmBroom
Agreed, but we all know the voters didn't choose growth through liberalization; they chose "get those EU gits out of our hair - BRITANNIA FOREVER!".
wateralien
Rejoin.
surgical_fire
The thing about rejoining is that the UK would likely not get the same preferential treatment, exemptions and so forth it used to enjoy before Brexit.
jjbinx007
True, but it's still better than what we have now.
neom
"So again, these are ludicrous scare – these are scare stories that are being put up. Even if sterling, even if sterling were to fall a few percentage points after Brexit, so what?" - Nigel Farage 2016.
It's down what? 15/20% from pre-brexit? I really wonder how people like Nigel Farage sleep at night. Just fine I suppose, but I really do wonder how.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum...
OgsyedIE
Snugly and enjoying the sense of contentment engendered by the many past profits from them (or their friends) short-selling UK-based instruments, I would assume.
It's the same as the Ruble 11 years ago. Intentionally damage your own country to personally profit from short-selling the currency (or bonds, etc.). Countries are just imaginary social constructs after all, so who cares?
Doches
Presumably most of Farage's personal income at this point is ultimately denominated in USD, so he's probably benefiting just fine from sterling's fall...
Lapel2742
> I really wonder how people like Nigel Farage sleep at night.
These people have no morals or ethics. They are psychopaths that only care for themselves. Even if it comes at devastating costs for others.
Brexit was a complete success, for Nigel Farage. The last thing I heard is that his party leads the polls in the UK.
In my country the spokesperson of the far-right party (AfD) was caught saying: "The worse things get for Germany, the better it is for the AfD". That's their mindset.
surgical_fire
It's the same story with all far right figures, everywhere. It's okay of the whole country suffers, as long as they benefit themselves, and that the people they hate suffer more.
It's also why they are typically comically incompetent at actually managing a country.
croes
They blame immigrants
pjc50
As you can see from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45996860 , blaming immigrants is a magic ticket to being able to do whatever you want.
null
JKCalhoun
Not British but asking, is there anyone in the U.K. defending Brexit at this point? I mean it sounds like we're just debating how bad it was, not whether it was bad.
richrichardsson
What a lot of the pro-Brexit crowd finally admitted is that Brexit was always going to be a bitter pill to swallow and they knew it. Conveniently none of them wanted to say that in the lead up to the vote. 5 years ago when they began admitting this, they claimed it was going to be a 10 year process before the "benefits" of Brexit can be felt. Here we are. I guess Brexit benefits will be like Fusion Energy or Full-Self-Driving; always a few years into the future.
dlahoda
let meet here and discuss status of eu newfascism in 5 years. uk will not be part of it.
gpderetta
indeed, with Mr Brexit on track to become next PM, UK will have its own brand of it.
pjc50
No, the UK will have its own indigenous fascism with a little Union Jack printed on it.
blipvert
Ahem, in 5 years Nigel Farage will have persuaded the idiots to willingly up their human rights, as enshrined in the ECHR. Churchill’s great achievement to prevent the horrors of the Nazi regime happening again.
Let’s see how that work out.
retsibsi
> eu newfascism
What do you mean by this, concretely? Or in other words, if we check back in 5 years, what would cause you to say 'yeah I was wrong, eu newfascism {doesn't exist || hasn't progressed as badly as I expected}'?
edit: to the downvoters, what do you object to here?? I'm trying to pin down the meaning of the parent comment, because without some kind of definition, a phrase like 'eu newfascism' is all heat and no light. My 'in other words...' framing was not based on the assumption that the parent commenter will be proven wrong; I'm just asking 'what would it take to falsify this?'
7952
People will defend the idea of Brexit but condemn the implementation. And people avoid debating it directly anyway.
Cthulhu_
They would've been better off if they could have set up an agreement with the EU, but they didn't get one that satisfied all parties - plus they had a weak negotiating position.
Normal_gaussian
It was particularly weakened by obvious issues with the UK's political leadership - the EU knew that the UK didn't know what it really wanted and didn't have negotiators with the mandate to get it.
krona
Nobody I know of who voted for Brexit did it because they thought it would make the country (or themselves) any richer or poorer.
skeletal88
Why did they vote for it?
Normal_gaussian
A lot of people voted for it as a point of 'control'. The UK might be in a pretty messed up place politically right now, but it does have full control over its laws. The buck stops with someone you can reasonably drive to and shout at. The EU was a slow and constant move into more and more centralised control in Europe.
Some of these people think this means they can influence the country more for their own gain; some think it protects them from people influencing the country unduly.
Either way, its hard to argue against brexit having given the UK has more on paper long term control, and its hard to argue against brexit being costly both theoretically and in practice, and its hard to argue that the UK wouldn't currently be better off in the EU. Its hard, but people are doing it.
graemep
Its mostly a matter of identity. Do you feel European or British? Its much like any secessionist movement. This partly explains the high ethnic minority vote for Brexit, because its hard to feel European if you are not of European origin.
It is also a matter of class identity. Being a remainer is a lot posher than being a leaver.
tonyedgecombe
Xenophobia.
nprateem
For some it was a protest vote. And some people are idiots.
greener_grass
There are. The rhetorical strategy is to argue that Brexit was a good idea, but it has not been implemented properly. Look for the phrases "Brexit means Brexit" and "proper Brexit".
JKCalhoun
Sounds similar to the things I hear about Communism. It's purportedly the best system… just that no one yet has done it right.
jaccola
Yes. Many people still support it. Even if Brexit is objectively bad this is self-evidently obvious, people are very bad at changing their minds and lots of people voted for it.
Maybe over half would now vote to remain, but most pundits thought this would be the case before 2015, so who can say for certain (e.g. Nigel Farage is more popular than ever and he is Mr Brexit).
It is way too early to judge the success or failure of leaving the EU, and part of it will be down to chance. There are also intangible reasons (e.g. feeling of national identity, distaste for bureaucracy) people voted leave and, while I don't think they make up for the loss, I don't think they should be poo-pooed.
I personally would have liked to remain in the EU but I don't think the EU is obviously good, or leaving the EU is obviously a terrible idea.
nprateem
Unless you obviously want to benefit by eg retiring/ moving there.
blipvert
“There was a better Brexit, but it goes to a different school” is the mentality.
Sophistry incarnate, that bunch.
michaelbuckbee
The poll mentioned in the article has 56% of respondents saying that Brexit was a bad idea, so roughly half seem ok with it.
reedf1
It is completely verboten for the political class to mention Brexit or its reversal.
mananaysiempre
Original paper: https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459 (semi-paywalled, download counts are per IP address).
frankest
Brexit was the proof that Putin can influence first world countries via social media. That effort is now franchised to in every country. Plant panic and fear, sow division and erode the EU in a first step to dismantle it.
Step two was funding greens to reduce Nuclear and increase dependence on his energy products so he can fund his military and oligarchs. By spreading extreme left policies that seem unreasonable to normal people he opens the door to install his own populists at the helm of any country over time.
Step three is war to leave his permanent mark by re-expanding Russia and avoiding jail. God knows what else motivates him to do damage.
His apparatus works too well because social media is perfect for spreading fear. Humans evolved socially to protect themselves and the #1 thing they want to spread is things that others should be watching out for. Now the lions at the river are largely manufactured to keep the flock contained and obedient.
For the benefit of those outside of the UK, Nigel (Mr. Brexit) Farage’s right hand man in Wales, Nathan Gill was just jailed for taking bribes from Kremlin stooges to parrot their propaganda in the EU parliament.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/21/nathan-gill...