Brexit reduced UK GDP by 6-8%, investments by 12-18% [pdf]
33 comments
·November 14, 2025jasoneckert
advisedwang
The paper just came out. I would assume they're posting it because it's interesting to a generally economically curious audience, and Brits in particular. No need for posting to be some targeted snipe at America.
ares623
Hopefully it leads to more investments in other places. That way the voters will eventually get what they want in a monkey’s paw way. Less immigration because the home countries get more investments and more opportunities.
justinzollars
someone needs a Jump to Conclusions Mat
nrhrjrjrjtntbt
That would make sense. Less trade. Fewer workers in UK etc. Was it worth it?
(Dont know... dont have too much dog in fight)
simonw
As a British citizen I also lost the right to live and work in 27 countries in the EU. Thanks for that.
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A_D_E_P_T
> Was it worth it?
Though I know yours is a rhetorical question, I'll answer: No. Brexit was essentially an anti-immigration and pro-deregulation movement. Simple small-c conservatism. (It was also anti-status-quo, but that was implicit.)
The, uh, "Conservatives" who were tasked with implementing Brexit supercharged immigration and, with considerable assistance from the EU, doubled down on ridiculous social and business regulations, paperwork, and red tape. There was no upside. They just made everything much worse. I know that they expected the Brexit vote to fail, and I think there's a term for their subsequent actions: "Malicious compliance."
Now England is a powder keg if there ever was one. If things are going to kick off, it'll happen there first. As Weimar as America is these days, England is worse.
TheOtherHobbes
The immigration betrayal was obvious to anyone familiar with UK history.
It's how the ruling class works. They import cheap labour from the (former) colonies to drive down wages. Then they pay their puppet politicians to hyperventilate about how terrible immigration is, how filthy these foreigners are, and how it Must Be Stopped.
It's been happening for centuries - the same scam, over and over.
naIak
The same people who tell you that GDP means nothing to the average person and that investments only go to the rich will tell you that Brexit was bad because it reduced GDP and investments.
david38
GDP is a meaningless measure for all but governments and the very elite.
How about some metrics on issue that led to Brexit?
yongjik
I remember someone on HN complaining that there were places selling authentic Polish sausages in London, and somehow it sounded they were deeply unhappy about it.
I don't know if average Londoners can still afford authentic Polish sausages, but if they can't, I hope the original commenter is happy now.
newfriend
But what about the food though!
georgeecollins
>> GDP is a meaningless measure for all but governments and the very elite.
Source?
The top three GDP per capita are: Lichtenstein, Luxembourg, Bermuda. The bottom three are: Afghanistan, Yemen, South Sedan. As an average person I would rather live in the top countries of the list than the bottom but that's just anecdote.
ttoinou
Taking maximas and minimas is only saying that the scale of GDP figures is interesting to look at. Like does it have 3 figured or 6 figures ? But that metric is easily done with others measures than GDP.
And yeah, if you study GDP its easy to see it’s a giant scam and the economy cannot be put into numbers. Qualities are better than quantities
christophilus
Your point is a serious one, and well taken. But “South Sedan” made me smile. Seemed like a reference to rusting sedans on cinder blocks in the low-gdp rural south.
ekhaliul
Well this just tells you that if you play by someone else's rules you get money and investment pouring in and GDP going up. If you don't then its the opposite. The main question is do you prefer to play by your own rules or rules imposed by investment interests.
Edit: For an average person its not always true that an illusion of prosperity is always good. Eventually there might be a payback for all this capital.
make3
this is such a bad way to evaluate a metric. we want something that can distinguish small percentage changes in affordability for the people who live there
Hikikomori
I steal all your shit, you get reimbursement from insurance, gdp goes up.
werds
The metrics for that were pretty much: 2 World Wars and 1 World Cup.
tomlockwood
If you have a look at figure 2 here: https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/lo...
You'll see that immigration was at record levels post Brexit.
rhaps0dy
Yeah, but long term it will increase GDP due to the UK being able to have better (fewer) regulations than those allowed by the EU. It does require Parliament getting it together.
advisedwang
The UK will get 6% GDP recovery from curved bananas alone!
bad_haircut72
Enjoy your chlorinated chickens guv!
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rhaps0dy
I'm vegan, I don't eat tortured animals. Thanks though.
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colechristensen
Ok but the current vibe in the UK is Parliament wants to watch you while you sleep so they can judge your worthiness. Not exactly an "efficient regulations" regime.
I'm assuming this was posted to draw a parallel with current U.S. international policy, such as tariffs and protectionist measures, which share some fundamental similarities with Brexit.