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$19B Wiped Out in Crypto's Biggest Liquidation

exabrial

Am I missing something obvious? Bitcoin has moved between 120k <--> 110K pretty much continuously since July.

I don't really see the move Friday as a huge deal (in the scope of the Wild West crypto is), looks like business as usual.

candiddevmike

It's a big deal from the standpoint that tether stepped in, printed ~ a billion USDT over the past three days, and prevented further plunging. Someone should investigate that...

Reminder, if you're invested in crypto long term, you'd better say a prayer every night that Tether is actually backed by ~$180B of liquidity.

sidewndr46

Does anyone actually believe that Tether is backed by anything? I know there are at least a few companies that have to pretend Tether is backed by something. But I can't really believe anyone saying it. It'd be sort of like if someone just declared Madoff never really ran Ponzi scheme. It was just a big misunderstanding.

Furthermore does it even really matter if Tether is backed by anything? My understanding is they've always maintained an absolute veto on any redemption. So tehter could be backed by Trillions in assets and it'd be irrelevant.

monerozcash

At this point there's no reason to pretend that Tether isn't likely fully backed, they're printing absurd amounts of money without any need for fraud.

This is the most profitable business in the world by many metrics.

candiddevmike

Tether is the defacto central bank for Bitcoin. Since iFinex isn't a country, doesn't have a GDP, and doesn't have a military, MMT doesn't really apply to them. So yes, it's very important, especially during a significant Bitcoin contraction. Tether represents 8% of Bitcoin's (liquid) market cap, and BTC's market cap is already overly inflated due to wash trading.

scotty79

Assuming it happened, if Tether didn't de-peg due to this then it was probably the right thing to do. If they printed it and bought BTC in the dip they are massively ahead since BTC already regained a third of what it lost in the wipe.

ptero

> Reminder, if you're invested in crypto long term, you'd better say a prayer every night that Tether is actually backed by ~$180B of liquidity.

As a long-term holder of Bitcoin I do not see why I should lose any sleep due to Tether risks. Why should I care even if it de-pegs?

On the liquidation itself: leveraged bets gone wrong will get liquidated, whether the bets were on stocks, currencies, Treasuries, crypto or grain futures. BoJ, for example, regularly makes rapid large buys to shake out leveraged yen speculators. I do not see anything concerning or unusual with this week's crypto shakeout. My 2c.

kasey_junk

Presumably you should care because tether is (per the OP argument) pushing the value of the entire crypto ecosystem up and the Bitcoin price is a primary beneficiary of that.

wmf

There was a flash crash down to ~$104K that wiped out leveraged traders. Liquidation cascades are relatively uncommon and the last one was in 2021 IIRC.

factorialboy

For long-term holders, this hardly matters.

The real story here is insider trading and corruption by people close to President Trump, who knew, down to the exact minute, when to short BTC and ETH.

BTC, meanwhile, being a scarce asset, will recover as fiat supply increases with time.

postflopclarity

it happened really fast so a lot of positions were liquidated automatically by force, rather than voluntarily by the user. that's really the main distinction

Ekaros

These things happen when too many participants are leveraged... Not that I feel sad for them. They took a gamble where sometimes they do lose...

bluecalm

The wild moves occurred on alt coins, some went down 80%. Mr. President's own World Liberty Financial for example went down from 18c to even 6c in an instant.

exabrial

That too seems like business as usual though?

scotty79

Yeah, the commotion is a bit silly. "The crash" basically brought the price of BTC to the level it was comfortably at two weeks ago.

I think disproportional media interest in last two weeks of appreciation and "the crash" is a failed attempt to finally kickstart this BTC bull or bear market. Somebody is getting impatient with last two years of steady growth.

daft_pink

Shocker. At least tulip bulbs could be planted.

tantalor

Fun fact: they're edible too

> In addition to the rationing system, the government provided food through soup kitchens in the cities. As the intensity of the famine increased, the reliance on soup kitchens increased. In April 1945, 1.8 million people in the cities were served daily. One pint of soup per person was the normal ration. The quality of the soup deteriorated over time and some people considered it inedible. The caloric content of a soup ration diminished from 483 calories to 268 calories. The soup served was often made from sugar beets, tulip bulbs, and potato peels. Pet dogs and cats were sometimes eaten.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hongerwinter

drcode

Just give us a date/year/etc in which you think the value of bitcoin will go to zero

If you are unable to do that, then you implicitly agree, as pretty much everyone does now, that bitcoin has an intrinsic market value that will remain over an indefinite time horizon

scotty79

The funniest thing is that BTC is 100k EUR +-5k for some time now and appreciating very slowly and linearly (at the rate about +300% over 2 years).

If you see BTC rising faster when you look at its price in dollars you don't see the appreciation of BTC. You see the decline of the dollar.

lawlessone

Thought i was the only one noticing that , people celebrating the rise in dollars they get for it. Then i check the euro price and it hasn't budged.

And it's not like the euro hasn't been inflating..

Is there anything people can actually use to see what's going on ? Gold? eggs?

grues-dinner

"Miscommunication" is when you see mineral water on the bill when you thought it was tap water. Being that ignorant of the positions during a trade war that you started and doing it in public on Twitter is more like holding Uno cards face-out during your own game of poker.

> Amid the market's downturn on Friday, our view was that the 100% tariff announcement by Trump was a bargaining chip.

> After China's statement last night, we believe the odds of Trump's 100% tariff on China going into effect are extremely low.

"Does nothing, wins" is getting a bit out of hand: they're going back in time and winning 26 hours before they even start.

dboreham

Why does "orange guy doing random thing" cause Bitcoin to go down in value? I mean, whatever the random thing was, it seems to have nothing whatever to do with Bitcoin.

candiddevmike

Because Bitcoin is far, far more correlated with the stock market than the proponents want to admit. Notice that gold didn't budge, "digital gold" my ass.

When folks get scared, pure speculation instruments like BTC will tank.

liquidise

Gold fell on Friday and recovered over the weekend. BTC certainly remains a more speculative asset than physical gold, but the comparison is not as unhinged as you make it sound.

nutjob2

Gold is the, uh, gold standard of safety bets and has run up lately to due comprehensive craziness around the world and especially in the US.

How is BTC not the exact opposite of gold? It has no fundamentals whatsoever, no uses outside its transactability, and is widely used to speculate.

SoftTalker

Gold has intrinsic value. Bitcoin are just... bits.

rahen

Isn't money just bits too nowadays?

As far as I understand, Bitcoin is backed by energy and scarcity, much like gold: it requires significant energy to "mine" a Bitcoin, and it can't be easily duplicated, if at all. That's its intrinsic value, unlike fiat currencies that can be printed easily (correct me if I'm wrong).

I also believe that even gold has little intrinsic value, perhaps even less than steel. Ultimately, it's really a question of how valuable something is as a medium of exchange. Bitcoin is durable, portable, divisible, scarce, verifiable, and decentralized, which makes it a valuable form of currency. I suppose that's its exchange value.

ajross

Gold's "intrinsic" value is limited to electronics contact plating and a comparatively small ("one tech company" worth of revenue) global jewelry market.

Gold's perceived value may be higher, but that's only because it's perceived, incorrectly, to have "intrinsic" value.

mindcandy

At a logical level, Bitcoin should be decorrelated from stocks. The fundamentals of Bitcoin network adoption and utilization are largely separate and independent.

But, at an emotional level, Bitcoin is considered a high-risk asset. So, whenever fear gets heavy in the fear/greed equation, Bitcoin is one of the first places people pull money out of as they flee to safety. It's also the "High Risk-High Return" spot for folks to plunk their "spare change" when they are feeling safe. So, in practice short term moves in Bitcoin are highly correlated to short term moves in equities.

Meanwhile, if you actually run the numbers, Bitcoin has out performed the SP500 (or even the SP10) by a large multiple over the past decade while having a volatility usually around the median of the SP500-top-10 that everyone is currently betting heavily into. People just have a hard time getting out of linear thinking and so they look at the big dips as short-term linear disasters while on a long-term, logarithmic view they have been rather boring. https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fd...

ajross

> At a logical level, Bitcoin should be decorrelated from stocks

I don't see how you get to that logic. BTC is a speculative growth asset held by the same people who speculate on securities, and for the same reason. In fact by virtue of being "pure" speculation, it should be expected to be even "stockier" than stocks! You don't buy bitcoin to influence corporate governance or derive dividend income. The only reason anyone purchases crypto is to sell it later at a higher price.

So if you need to dump an asset to backstop other debts, it's going to be your crypto wallet you reach for first. It'll crash harder, almost by definition.

KronisLV

> I mean, whatever the random thing was, it seems to have nothing whatever to do with Bitcoin.

I recently reviewed my investments and wrote about it on my blog, curiously around the time when US announced its tariffs around April, pretty much everything dropped, including crypto like BTC and ETH.

bdcravens

The same psychological forces that drive the stock market drive crypto. It used to be fairly disconnected, but that ship sailed long ago.

stavros

I guess because it's random things that cause anything to go up or down nowadays, so it fits.

chasebank

From what I’ve read it’s because there is a massive amount of Chinese investment in US equities and crypto markets.

DesiLurker

there were a couple of reasons

1) there is a lot of circumstantial evidence of insider trading before the timing of presidential tariff announcement. further the accounts that traded on hyperliquid DEX were funded 24hours before even the first tweet by the president indicating fore-knowledge.

2) crypto exchanges have a feature called auto-deleveraging which closes long and short positions to 'preserve the solvency & integrity of exchange'. apparently this got kicked in when some of the thinly traded coins just didnt have a market maker & basically floor fell out of price.

3) looks like some screwup happened (likely intentional unknown atm) with the price reporting oracle between decentrralized exchanges like hyperliquid and Centralized exchange used (binance). people are claiming intentional sabotage by binance because they have a competing dex called aster. who knows.

4) leverage play, everybody was levered up because of up-tober expectations. so even small movements wiped out peoples saving.

nroets

Here's more speculation that the price manipulation was rife:

https://x.com/ElonTrades/status/1977340254047649966

bluecalm

As many assets are held by leveraged players their prices crash when it's difficult to secure future loans at the same price. This is why seemingly random things like central bank of Japan raising rates can cause double digit crash on Nasdaq.

There is nothing to worry about if you are happy to hold the assets long term. It's an opportunity if you have spare cash. It's only a problem for those leveraged players and people who need to sell right now for whatever reason.

jmyeet

While it's fascinating to watch crypto bros learn exactly why the financial system is like it is, kinda like the kid eating baking chocolate, that's boring. It happens basically every day.

What's more interesting is how massive hte insider trader problem is already and it's only going to get worse. At some point it's going to undermine the financial markets themselves because nobody is going to trust it. Libertarians might get mad but financial markets, like all markets, require strong regulation to function.

A consequence of the presidential immunity decision is that Trump and his orbiters are allowed to insider trade with absolutely no repercussions. If somebody in his orbit does get in trouble, no problem. Just sell another pardon.

The US control and influence over the global financial system is a key pillar of its global power. As much as we might hear platitudes like "America First", this administration has done more to destroy the global power and influence of the US than any in living memory and it's not even close.

unit149

[dead]

josefritzishere

Biggest crash in the history of crypto. I'm surprised this isn't on network news.

bdcravens

A lot of the value was wiped out from non-Bitcoin, and the percentages weren't the biggest, only the absolute value.

ramesh31

>Biggest crash in the history of crypto. I'm surprised this isn't on network news.

In dollar terms sure, but it's a meaningless blip percentage wise. The NASDAQ shed more than its entire market cap in the 2000s this year in a few days and it went right back up. We are in a fantasy world where numbers don't mean anything anymore.