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How big a solar battery do I need to store *all* my home's electricity?

IshKebab

Storing energy from the summer for the winter is a really inefficient way to do it. It's much better to massively over-provision the solar so you have enough energy - on average - for the winter. Then you only need a couple of week's worth of storage to account for extended cloudy periods.

Much cheaper, and you get a ton of extra free power in the summer. The only downside is a typical house roof doesn't have enough space. But a typical house doesn't have enough space for a 1 MWh battery either so...

newyankee

The thing is LFP or Sodium ion are both expected to have 5000+ useful cycles soon (or possibly even in production now). This means even if you use one full discharge overnight , this is like 15+ years of life of the battery, although I suspect calendar degradation will be much faster.

Higher the cycle life, lower the levelised cost of storage and this is what matters in my opinion. Best is to have some type of long term storage like a Diesel generator only for estimated 1-2 weeks of the year depending on location where it will be needed.

I feel V2G with 3 days backup and a house low power mode which can be utilised in emergencies might solve even this issue.

Oversizing solar to the extent possible for winter loads is also ideal because so far that does not seem to be the driving cost.

bob1029

> Best is to have some type of long term storage like a Diesel generator

LNG or propane would be far superior fuel types for long term standby generators. Periodically exercising a machine that runs on CH4 results in very minimal buildup on internal components. Liquid fuels are much dirtier and can also go bad.

Diesel is used in situations where you can afford all of the crazy maintenance. It's worth the trade off if you can.

epistasis

No, LFP is 8k-12k cycles, and sodium are expect to be 15k to perhaps 20k cycles. This is reflected in the manufacturer warranties, and many sources. Here's one:

https://www.volts.wtf/p/whats-the-deal-with-sodium-ion-batte...

newyankee

that makes calendar aging the limiting factor even more. I feel that so many cycles can also aid in smoothing solar & wind (at turbine level) output and increase their utility.

I feel that long term energy storage will be split between thermal and non thermal in interesting ways and the market for them will open up after first level of daily disruption

epistasis

No, it doesn't. You are just guessing about calendar aging, you are not using data.

20,000 daily cycles if 55 years. 10,000 daily cycles is 27 years. The expected usage case for these batteries is near daily usage.

I hadn't really thought about thermal tech in such extreme terms until your comment, but to me it appears to be the tape storage of our times. There will always be a fair amount of infrastructure hidden that almost nobody knows about, but it's going to be dwarfed in active usage by HDDs or SDDs.

The tech advantages really are that big for batters and other solid state energy tech over the moving parts thermal variety. Thermal tech hasn't had an upgrade like LTO-6 (or is it 7 now) and is pretty much at the end of its possible engineered capabilities, but batteries are just barely getting started on what they are capable of.

bluGill

Why go for a bigger battery when you can just put more panels on the roof to cover those winter days and waste the power the rest of the year?

I suspect the answer is somewhere in the middle - maybe two weeks of storage. Though of course prices change all the time so the correct action will change and you need to rerun the numbers as things degrade to decide your next action.

edent

(Author here) My roof is full on both sides. There simply isn't any more room.

I do say:

> As solar panels increase in efficiency, it might be more sensible to replace the panels on my roof, or add some onto a shed.

Even in the darkest days of winter, they still generate something (unless they're physically covered in snow) - but they'd need to be 20x as efficient to power my typical winter usage.

pandemic_region

In our part of the world, solar production during winter is incredibly low or 0 due to it being very cloudy, days being much shorter, sunlight angle on the panel very suboptimal. No amount of additional panels will get you through that streak.

yurishimo

It also depends somewhat on how much energy you use. I live in the Netherlands where everytime I bring it up, I'm told "that's just not possible, you will never make enough in winter", but these same people have no idea how much energy I use. On a bad day, I use maybe 10kWh and that's running the AC with the thermostat set to 19c overnight and a bit during the day at 22c. I don't have a giant fridge, I don't have any gaming PCs slurping 200W on standby, etc. My baseline usage is around 300-400W to run the old freezer that never turns off (70W), my network equipment, a fan in the garage to prevent moisture buildup, and some lights.

My 1.8kWh system at 20% output covers a great percentage of my baseline usage during the day! I'm probably going to add a small battery so I'm not penalized for sending energy back to the grid, but I'm not gonna need much until my kids get older and want new gadgets. The cool part about modern electronics is that we're generally getting more efficient too with newer tech. If I replace the old freezer, my baseline usage drops 20%+.

I don't disagree with your point that sometimes nature is simply just working too hard against your efforts, but I also wrote all this to say that some people need to really do the math and not rely on "common knowledge". Energy efficiency has come an extremely long way in the past decade and much of what was true when residential solar first started popping off is now outdated.

IshKebab

I wouldn't say no amount. I think about 100kW of solar would still produce enough for the average house even in the depths of cloudy British winter.

Way too much to fit on a house though.

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pyrale

A small addendum on the conclusions:

- every household, can do that, _if_ they have a roof. appartment buildings may not have enough roof for all the people in it.

- for those who can't access that, (that includes people, but also the industry, your mobile phone provider, etc.) prices will get worse.

- the fire brigade will love industrial-size battery fires in the neighbourhood.

jszymborski

Germans seem to be rather fond of balcony solar

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balcony_solar_power

mynti

Balcony solar is absolute awesome in germany. I get about 30% return on investment per year on my small solar panel. Hard not to do it. I have no idea why it is still a little niche

destitude

For some reason in the USA there is only a single state that has approved that (Utah).

brazzy

That's just low hanging fruit, the easiest and cheapest way to produce some solar power. But even if fully utilized, that is not going to come anywhere close to meeting most households' needs.

destitude

You forgot to mention anybody who has a yard that gets full sun can mount panels there as well. As far as fires you can say same thing about all the fires that currently occur because of propane, gas, and heating oil. Those have become some engrained in society for so long that you don't even think of that as a "fire hazard therefore you shouldn't even have it".

lostlogin

The fire thing is funny with cars. If an EV burns, it’s important news. An ICE car burning is unremarkable.

pyrale

> You forgot to mention anybody who has a yard that gets full sun can mount panels there as well.

The overlap with people who have their own solar-compatible roof is probably large.

oezi

Solar and renewables in general are starting to reduce generation costs.

So once the improvements in power transmission are done prices should come down for everyone.

pyrale

Solar and renewables alone don't make a grid. You would also need grid-scale batteries, and the cost is not the same.

The "improvements" in power transmission is about building more lines, these lines are not going to be significantly cheaper to maintain than previous generations, and if these investment/maintenance costs are shared among less, that means more expensive electricity. Currently, in my country, electricity transport and distribution are about one third of total cost.

gnfargbl

Something that isn't spoken about enough is that in developed Western countries, grids are actually significantly oversized due to reductions in electricity usage over time [1]. That link says 16% over, but the peak demand in the UK in 2024 was actually only 45MW [2], which I make more like a 30% reduction from the all-time peak.

Because of this, it feels like we should already have enough transmission capacity in a decent part of the network to cope with a re-organisation of where the sources and sinks are placed. Yes, we might need to do some work in the last mile, especially if V2G takes off, but things aren't nearly as bad as one might naively assume.

[1] https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero-sto...

[2] https://www.neso.energy/news/britains-electricity-explained-...

pjc50

The trouble is the capacity is in the wrong place; the UK closed coal plants in (defunct) coalfields in the middle of the country, and built offshore wind farms which tend to be further north. There's plans for an offshore north-south connector to help with this.

gnfargbl

True, but don't forget you can put BESS on the sites of the old coal plants: https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20240927-how-coal-fired...

rswail

I think this is something that may happen in the next decade.

The interesting impact will be on the grid itself. Why connect to the grid if you are self-sufficient?

Then the grid starts to degrade due to lack of maintenance, and the people that can't afford local storage become dependent essentially on a government maintained service.

Or should we be planning localized storage and grids at the same time, so we get the benefits of both scale and resiliency and redundancy.

People will be parking a mobile 100kWh battery at their house every night. We need integrated V2G and grid upgrades to make the most of this opportunity.

yannyu

> Then the grid starts to degrade due to lack of maintenance, and the people that can't afford local storage become dependent essentially on a government maintained service.

Many services that we use in our daily lives are government maintained services, so electricity is no different than water, sewage, internet, roads, railroads, post, emergency services, public education, public health systems, trash and recycling services, parks and recreational spaces, disaster relief and response, and others.

We should absolutely ensure these services continue to be funded and maintained, because they're often not profitable to deliver. Especially to the sprawling population of the United States. That’s exactly why government support exists and should exist: to guarantee access to essential services that markets alone won’t reliably or equitably provide.

KaiserPro

> Why connect to the grid if you are self-sufficient?

I think that starts to bleed into the "pre paid meter" vs contract argument.

but practically the difference between total self sufficiency and 90% is willingness to fork out cash.

I currently have a 13kwhr battery, which covers my domestic power needs for 75% of the year. (we'll start to draw on the grid in the next few weeks.) but in the dead of winter it'll only cover 20-50% of my daily need (excluding the car)

but for car power, thats a different beast. Even though I don't commute by car, with the charging at home, I now use around the same amount of power as the uk average house. (even with solar and storage. pre electic car era. )

pjc50

There's a certain type of person who fantasizes about being off-grid, but the few that actually live it know the hassle and generally want to get back on if feasible.

Battery costs might go down, but the space they take up on your property costs money as well, which only gets more expensive the more urban you are.

The island of Eigg has a micro-grid. Not individual houses, a micro-grid.

The UK is going to be a wind power island not a solar power island, and definitely not an individual solar power island.

kccqzy

I do not think this will happen. Getting most households to be self-sufficient is probably not as cost effective as centralized grid. One there's the economy of scale. Second, any peaks and troughs will generally be balanced out between households and the overall buffer (aka reserve) needed could be lower.

mr_toad

If local storage becomes cheaper than the grid but some people can’t afford it (why, capital costs?) then the government would be better off addressing those capital costs directly.

However, you need to consider industrial and commercial use as well as domestic. Can you power a smelter using local solar?

epistasis

It's not the way that it was originally meant, but this is another interpretation of the phrase "energy too cheap to meter".

destitude

I'm fully off grid today with no issues, even had power company remove power poles. I do heat with wood however. AC in the summer is no issue since that is when I get the most sun anyways.

floatrock

This doom-loop is often repeated, but reality is far more complicated.

Very few people go fully off-grid, reality is people don't want that. Cost/benefit just isn't there unless you live off in the woods.

So instead, market structures react when penetration % becomes non-neglible. First you start seeing things like fixed-fees (minimum prices to maintain a grid connection, or "first x kWh are included"). And then you start seeing like what's in California with NEM3: the grid-export prices drop to "we don't want your excess solar" so people are incentivized to buy batteries. But because batteries make a system more complicated and expensive, people buy smaller systems overall.

So the "too much solar creates a disconnection spiral and the system falls apart" thing is a bit of fear-mongering. The system adapts, the changes in pricing create different cost/benefit ratios, and if nothing else, new AI datacenters will gobble up any power that doesn't need to flow to neighborhoods.

destitude

In case you didn't realize he is looking to store ALL of the summer generation into a battery and generate zero power in winter.. so rely entirely off of a battery during winter.. which is absolutely no feasible for a normal person and nobody would ever do.

fdsfdsfdsaasd

I once did a related calculation on "How much of my garden do I need to dedicate to coppiced willow to heat my house for a week per year?"

I concluded that we're all going to need much bigger gardens.

SirFatty

Why worry about panels and batteries when you can have an Egg?

https://enron.com/pages/the-egg?srsltid=AfmBOoqW03cqyIhQ0OlG...

destitude

And the price of the egg?

pyrale

The egg itself is extremely cheap. The only expensive part is the subscription to disable remote control rights from Enron's traders.

MisterTea

I always thought about this myself in terms of personal sized long term, high density energy storage. Compressed hydrogen with a fuel cell is the obvious solution. Excess electric is used in a electrolysis cell and a matched compressor fills a bank of storage cylinders. More cylinders = more storage. Though likely very inefficient with a risk of fire or explosion.

Are there any other long term high density electric storage technologies that can fit in someones basement, garage, or even apartment closet?

Tade0

> Compressed hydrogen with a fuel cell is the obvious solution.

To achieve volumetric energy density of hydrogen at room temperature that's on par with batteries (and that's charitably assuming you're using inefficient resistance heating with batteries) you need to store it at a pressure in the order of 100 bar.

You're better off with batteries realistically speaking.

fdsfdsfdsaasd

Compressed hydrogen is no joke. It can escape most containers, actively degrades many grades of steel, has a very low ignition energy, and will explode over an enormous range of air/fuel ratios. Definitely not something to keep anywhere where you care about the roof :)

PinguTS

The HTW Berlin has a autarchy calculator. Unfortunately only in German language: https://solar.htw-berlin.de/rechner/unabhaengigkeitsrechner/

They also test and publish yearly the latest battery combos.

bootsmann

Extremely underrated how important just a small battery is for autarchy, very useful site.

dgacmu

An odd thing about this article is that it ignores the deeper question: what balance of solar over-provisonioning + battery would most cost-effectively cover anticipated yearly needs?

I suspect that something like 3x'ing the solar (under 100k) would then let the author get away with much, much less battery, and result in a net cost savings.

scotty79

I think he can't imagine 3x'ing because he already has his house covered and only the shed roof remains empty.

But that is a super interesting question that immediately comes to mind.

I am pretty sceptical about batteries and see overbuilding renewables plus bitcoin mining to monetize excess as a more viable solution.

superbaconman

I'm considering buying enough batteries for my day usage, then recharging off the grid during off-peak hours. I can add solar later on.