Countries across the world see food price shocks from climate extremes
61 comments
·July 23, 2025danielscrubs
boudin
That's part of the equation for sure but extreme weather events have a massive impact where I live. Talking to producers, they are losing way more of their production way more frequently due to intense rain or dry events. As an exemple, someone who manages orchards was telling me that the norm now is to lose 1 year of harvest every 5 years when it was every 10 years 20 years ago.
Talking with small scale organic veg growers who are less dependent on russian oil, managing weather events is the hardest part of their job. Currently, the soil is as dry as it usually is end of august where i am.
worldsayshi
> the norm now is to lose 1 year of harvest every 5 years when it was every 10 years 20 years ago.
That sounds apocalyptic given that these things have only just begun.
bostik
> apocalyptic
Bingo. Wars are already expanding, and the world is preparing for more. With food production suffering from climate change impacts, we are witnessing famine gaining ground in real time. The breed of politicians in power are doing their best to give pestilence a newfound hold on populace at large.
And the fourth horseman is comfortably trotting in the wake of the other three.
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astahlx
We should not rely on gas for producing mineral fertilizers: https://www.carbonbrief.org/fertiliser-emissions-could-be-cu...
lazide
Should == I wish.
everyone
Climate change will cause more wars also.
astahlx
I see the war in Ukraine as one of them. They have huge areas of farm land, valuable in times where climate change makes farming impossible in other regions. And many big companies and countries are already invested in there. You can already see how dependent some countries are on this base on the different price spikes. (While the question remains if farm products should be traded on stock markets).
vidarh
I see the war in Ukraine as more of a war for people that has gone badly wrong. Russia (the same applies to Ukraine) has birth rates far below replacement, and faces total demographic collapse if they can't reverse it.
Russia also won't need more farmland. Russia has far more land. Especially as climate change if anything is likely to open up regions further north where farming has not been practical - in that respect, Russia is better placed that most other countries (including Ukraine) to see off the worst effects of climate change -, but also because their crashing population will reduce their agricultural demand.
Doesn't mean Putin doesn't also want the land and resources, but if taking over Ukraine were to shore up Russia's population and buy them decades to solve the demographic problem, I think that would be far more economically valuable to him.
See e.g. also the large-scale abduction of children from the occupied areas, that while a classic way to try to destroy an enemy is also a move that "makes sense" (though of course reprehensible) to someone who is worried about the very perpetuation of his people.
Of course, then he failed to get the quick win, and the potential win is literally bleeding away on the battlefield, to the point where there's every reason to question whether Russia will survive the after-effects of this as a country 20-30 years down the line.
phtrivier
I can also be interpreted as an "energy-transition" war, given how the territories captured by Russia "just happen" to contain the mines... [1]
So if we stop buying oil & gas from Russia, and instead buy batteries made in part out of "Russian" minerals from Eastern-Ukraine... yaay progress, I guess ?
[1] https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-ukraines-mineral-res...
jajko
There are massive oil, gas and metal reserves on eastern Ukraine. Sure, russia has those too but as a nation they are the very definition of greedy. When you have parts of their mafia state fighting for a bigger grab of money and power, you end up with such wars.
jizzypants
Ofc it is "climate change". You forgot to prefix "man-made".
ManBeardPc
We will see much more of this. Consequences of climate change start to really ramp up. We have been seeing temperature records year after year way beyond expectations. It’s coming fast and it is happening now, not just affecting our children and grandchildren. Recommend the „time is up“ talks from Mark Benecke (most are in German, subtitles and looking at the graphs should give you the gist though).
LightBug1
Yep, but don't forget to blame immigrants for causing these issues. That's really what's at the heart of this.
ManBeardPc
Of course. And don’t look up. I’m always amazed at how good we humans are at denying reality.
luckys
In the little corner of Europe where I live food became more noticeably expensive with the Ukraine war. Not everything but a number of items. At one point, the price of olive oil was raised because vegetable oil had to be cheaper than olive oil!
astahlx
Evidence? Olive oil got more expensive because of weather extremes https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20231218-why-olive-oil-pr... . Who sets the rule that one oil must be cheaper than the other? Which country? Which type of olive oil?
bigthymer
Ukraine is the largest exporter of sunflower oil with Russia being #2. They are still #1 as of 2023 [1] so the war appears not to have completely interrupted supply but may have made it more expensive to distribute. WSJ reports that the war's effect on sunflower oil is causing a rise in price of all cooking oils.
[1] - https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/sunflower-seed-or-safflower-... [2] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rtWDmo0rKg
mk89
We're talking about mainly 4 countries in the Mediterranean Sea.
The way I see it is that while it's true that there is an issue with the weather, they increased the prices in 2022 due to old high-demand/low-offer law (other cheaper oil not available, buy whatever is there: olive oil). The prices never decreased though, or if they did, it's unnoticeable. This pattern I have seen multiple times in my life: once companies realize people are going to pay for something for a certain price, why reduce it?
luckys
Portugal. You would have to live here I guess. It was about 2 years ago and I don't have any sources to give you. Ask the locals if you know any.
Olive oil may be more expensive in general now because of poor harvests but at the time local production had been good and there was no reason to raise the price. The rationale? I guess it was profit.
hnhg
I feel across Europe at least companies are using data to optimise price by demand closely - large corporate suppliers almost definitely have the staff at hand to increase prices using data in the same way that "surge" pricing is calculated these days. They have every incentive to do so since they want to maximise profit.
graemep
> at the time local production had been good
Ye,s but prices are not just local. In general these are world prices as it can easily be imported or exported. Even more so within the EU single market which IS your national market.
On top of that its entirely normal for the prices of products that can substitute for each other to move together. If one oil goes up in price so will all the others. This is market forces acting as expected.
mk89
There was a huge spike in demand, due to the lack of cheaper alternatives.
Sadly enough, the prices have stayed the same, although the demand has very likely normalized, now that people can buy "again" sunflower and other vegetable oil.
nudgeOrnurture
have you been on the grounds of the olive oil producers? they had to increase prices because crisis talk and civil conflicts increased prices elsewhere. even unrelated prices cause increases up the graphs in all directions. it's mostly lies, of course, but they catch up.
don't take my word on it, obviously, but the math checks out "if you follow the money". essentially, logistical cost increases as well as oil and insurance prices were the determining factors, not extreme weather. despite zero change in the scarcity of any of the factors. (they found more oil etc)
crisis talk was also the reason for increased demand in some countries as idiots started to stock up and panic buy. I remember buying flour at a local producer and she said "they are all fucking crazy, nothing changes". the Russians were still stuck for days in front of the border in a long convoy, wahahaha, according to the news.
aivisol
Can confirm this. I think it was sunflower oil which went through the roof when war started not vegetable though.
mk89
As well as rapeseed oil. Here in Germany it reached the prices of olive oil, which was insane.
jizzypants
There's enough rapeseed available in Germany (actually most of the EU). It's being produced by illegal migrants who relentlessly hunt women there.
Kichererbsen
(canola oil i think is what americans might know it as. or something similar)
OfficeChad
Olive Groves were hit by Xylella fastidiosa.
willvarfar
The UN previewed a report yesterday on food price rises 2020-24 https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/07/1165468
PeterStuer
Over here yield is extremely variable. For fruit, last year was extremely poor due to a late (one night) freeze that killed of all the flowers and buds. This year, biggest bumper crop I have ever witnessed.
9rx
I started farming 15 years ago. It is mind boggling how much yields have jumped since I began. What was once cause for celebration is now considered failure. Some of that is attributable to improved technology, to be sure, but it mainly seems to be a result of climate change.
vidarh
Indeed, I looked up OECD numbers, and the indicate primary crop outputs are on average expected to grow by 1.4% each year, outpacing population growth.
A lot of what is causing concerns over famines etc., though, is that we're seeing dramatic variability that drives cost that is likely to see a lot of people priced out of access in bad years even as overall food production goes from height to height.
soco
I assume the populations living on subsistence agriculture are also the ones much more exposed to these climate risks.
dzink
Cherries, Apricots, and Peaches produced no fruit this year in the Balkans (and possibly elsewhere in Europe), due to an early winter warm followed by a frost that destroyed all blooms. That will likely impact a lot of european canning and food producers.
astahlx
I do not understand all the relativations here: If we crash the climate, we destroy the foundations for living on this planet, at least for most of us (billions). Sure, the current question is why we suddenly have none for weapons and even mightier AI while this would better be spend to get away from fossil fuels.
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vlckohoh
I wonder if more and more food production will shift to giant, climate-controlled greenhouses?
Where I’m from we get fresh locally produced tomatoes and cucumbers in winter, although it’s freezing outside. It seems like an obvious band-aid if food prices rise enough to make it economical for more crops.
ManBeardPc
Lack of water and extreme weather events (hurricanes, landslides, strong floods, long droughts, heat, cold) will play a major role in the future. Locations/facilities that protect from these problems will be desired and fought for. War and crime probably will also be an issue, as such locations are sparse compared to how much we need to feed the world.
octo888
Makes you wonder if these climate-driven food shocks would have happened if COVID/ZIRP ending hadn't ...
Are there any comparable periods of weather extremes resulting in such widespread price hikes?
9rx
There was a price shock following the 2013 derecho that ravaged the US breadbasket.
But the 2020s shock was far more shocking because of the triple whammy. It started with the 2019 derecho again ravaging the US breadbasket much like in 2013, but continued with EU fertilizer plant shutdowns, soon followed by Russia attacking Ukraine — which also cut off access to Russian fertilizer and constrained access to Ukraine food production. COVID/ZIRP might have also played into it, but there isn't much to suggest it was a significant factor.
brador
We need to stop relying on the sun for our food security.
daft_pink
It’s just inflation to be honest.
If you ask a metrologist you will get this answer. But from what I’ve heard from eu farmers are: Russian fertilisers and gas dependence have caused quite a blow to the market, it will need time to normalise.
Not trying to downplay extreme weather though!