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Why does raising the retirement age hurt young people?

daveland

Full Title : Why Does Raising the Retirement Age Hurt Young People? What Would It Take to Start/Restart Their Careers?

Turns out trying to get people to retire later is a bad idea

general1726

Unless you are having state pensions and taking money from taxable population and giving it to pensioners. This group keeps getting bigger thanks to constantly improving medical care, while taxable population is getting smaller thanks to declining birthrates.

Cutting pensions would probably cause massive riots, so raising retirement age is only logical way forward to keep this social pyramid scheme alive a little bit longer.

conception

There are lots of ways. Looking at ss specifically - https://www.crfb.org/socialsecurityreformer/

Social Security will be solvent over the next 75 years, but 16% of the gap between spending and revenue remains in the 75th year, meaning the program is not yet sustainable.

YOUR POLICY SELECTIONS % OF GAP CLOSED

Slow Benefit Growth for Top 20% Of Earners 11% Limit Spousal Benefits for High Earners 3% Create Minimum Benefit at 125% of Poverty -3% Means-Test Benefits for Higher Earners 16% Tax All Wages Above $400,000 67% Apply the Payroll Tax to "Cafeteria Plans" 10% TOTAL 104%

And I increased benefits.

rvz

Governments and career politicians do not care and will do anything to try to make the situation worse.

tomrod

Nah. FDR and the reorganization or the government and the economy, JFK/LBJ and the great society. Lincoln. There have been good folks.

pelagicAustral

Oh, this is so incredibly coordinated to what I was doing just a minute ago, which is checking one of my Pension funds and realizing it recovered from a massive hit back in March. I was thinking about how futile the whole thing is... I just know this money will never be mine, and I will work until I die (if I'm lucky enough). Oh well, I guess better get some sleep, back to the office tomorrow...

BLKNSLVR

For the last 10-odd years I've been putting money away / aside, making regular small contributions to investments for retirement, such that I think I'm somewhat ahead of my age cohort.

And yet, the more I look at it, the more I get the feeling that I might still have to get lucky to be able to retire at retirement age.

gigatree

I would look at the real value of the dollar before assuming the real value of it went up. With how bad [actual] inflation is/will be, it wouldn’t be surprising if your pension actually dropped in real value.

reactordev

Pension? Job? What’s that like? /s

WalterBright

I'm very skeptical of this. It smacks of burning half your crops so the price of the remainder gets bid up.

We can also examine it by pushing it further. What if the mandatory retirement age was 30? The wages for those under 30 will be higher because of supply and demand, but they'd also have to support all those people over 30 who are not contributing anything to the economy.

In the net, early retirement will lower the standard of living of those still in the workplace.

hiAndrewQuinn

Interesting claim - let's see if it passes the sniff test.

It's very unlikely that we are actually currently at an ideal retirement age on the margin where a move in either direction hurts. If raising the retirement age hurts young people, then lowering the retirement age probably helps young people.

Does that sound correct to you? Would lowering the retirement age now help young people?

felipeerias

If pensions depend exclusively on what each person has contributed during their working years, then lowering the retirement age might theoretically help young people by opening up more senior positions for them.

However, in many developed countries today’s pensions are mainly paid for by today’s workers, often through a combination of social contributions and taxes.

In Spain, for example, the social security has a large structural deficit that gets covered by large taxes on salaries, taking money from other social services, and sovereign debt.

In other words, young workers are forced to support retirees through means that make it much harder for them to build a future of their own.

This system is kept in place because pensioners are a huge 1-issue voting block that no political party wants to antagonise. I believe that this is somehow downstream of cultural changes that have made all of society more individualistic and self-centred, incapable to work together for a common future.

davidgay

> However, in many developed countries today’s pensions are mainly paid for by today’s workers, often through a combination of social contributions and taxes.

If one accepts this hypothesis, then raising the retirement age is good for all previously-working people, as they now have less people to support and more workers providing that support...

hiAndrewQuinn

Taken to its logical conclusion one could even argue that ending government backed retirement pensions entirely and letting people make their own decisions is the best idea.

Some people might plan to work until the day they drop, which is obviously a laudable goal. It's good to contribute to the economy.

Others may purchase an annuity for a target date years or decades in the future, which pay out in basically the same way as social security tends to.

Some (maybe most) would just save more for retirement, because they know if they don't no one will.

Realistically I suspect most people would hedge their bets dynamically go for a combination of these things. Which isn't all that different from the current system, where SS despite being over 20% of the federal budget is considered by most to be woefully inadequate even in the current day for a retirement plan.

nemothekid

>Does that sound correct to you?

Yes? I'm not sure if I'm missing something you think is obvious. Lowering the retirement age will open up high seniority jobs that younger people can now promote into. You can see this in congress - despite millenials being in the 40s now they are rarely seen in high level political positions due to boomers and older sticking to their jobs.

brandonmenc

> Newly elected Representatives in the 119th Congress had a median age of 47.8 years.

> Similar to the House, the incoming class of Senators in the 119th Congress was also younger, with a median age of 50.4 years.

> The average age of Representatives is 57.9 years.

lenerdenator

At this point I just want the debt incurred by the electoral decisions of the last fifty years paid off. If that means retirement gets pushed back, well, shrugs.

Buttons840

Why do you want the debt paid off?

The debt has been growing for 50 years, has life gotten worse during those 50 years?

What happens if we don't pay off the debt?

missedthecue

Eventually the interest payments crowd out most other government spending, or require significant across the board tax increases to maintain current levels of spend.

The US is currently at $1T+ a year in tax revenues that instantly go right out the door toward paying bond interest. It will likely be $2T within 10 years, even fewer if rates don't come down in that time. It's compounding and therefore exponential.

Situations like Japan are even more dire. A small increase in the interest rate results in a HUGE increase in interest expense at 260% debt to GDP ratios. Worse, their population is naturally shrinking a million people a year on account of their decades-long birth rate implosion. Hard to outgrow that.

fsckboy

>Eventually the interest payments crowd out most other government spending

false.

you are neglecting economic growth which increases tax receipts but does not increase the debt.

if government expenditure grows faster than economic growth, yes, bankruptcy is in the future.

Buttons840

So lets raise taxes now and pay it off. Who should we tax? Should we squeeze blood from stones and try to get the poor to pay more taxes, or should we tax the wealthy?

Who am I kidding. The current administration showed us--what was it? last week?--that they prefer cutting taxes for the wealthy and increasing the deficit.

Republicans ALWAYS increase the deficit. Democrats usually do, but not always.

It looks like we'll probably let the generation that created this mess retire like normal, and instead try to fix it by making their children and grandchildren work until death.

maxerickson

It's more fun to think that it's the deficit that is going to the interest payments.

nradov

The retirement age has already been pushed back about as far as it can be, barring major advancements in medicine. Maybe some of us will still be fully capable of doing software work at age 67 but those who have spent their lives doing manual labor have usually accumulated some significant disabilities by that age. They need a break.

BLKNSLVR

Interesting that the current President is 79 years old (and will be 82 by the end of his term) and he took over from someone who was also 82 at the end of their term.

Given that, software work at 67 should be well within cognitive limits.

(I'm actually not sure if I'm being sarcastic)

Qem

They have lots of supporting staff, mostly younger than themselves, to do the heavy lifting. Some politicians developing dementia while holding office must practically be puppeteered through term by their staff. See https://theintercept.com/2023/09/12/national-security-dement...

RickJWagner

If we put our senior devs on it, we can finally beat Medicare!

defrost

Hell of trope there.

I live in a rural community filled with farmers and FiFo workers (fly in | fly out mine and rig workers) with a median age of ~ 60 years.

My father has worked hard manual labour his entire life, he only recently stopped splitting wood and climbing ladders. He was born in 1935.

He's not unusual here, many 60 and 70 year olds, 80 year olds even, are still active on the land here.

Rephrased, it's just as problematic, albeit with a kernel of truthiness:

  Clearly some of us are still fully capable of doing manual labour at 67 but those who have spent their lives doing software "engineering" have usually accumulated some significant mental burn out by that age. They need a break.

noah_buddy

You see those who have survived the job, not those who don’t. Have you ever asked your father about people he’s worked with who are now dead? Probably a whole lot of em.

XorNot

Pretty significant selection bias in that observation.

reactordev

I think they reverse mortgaged it.

lenerdenator

More-or-less, but...

It's not just the age at which the government lets you claim OASDI and Medicare. It's also the fact that in the US at least, we've basically set up the entire economy around the idea of paying retirement/pension funds first and foremost, C-suites second, and the people creating the actual value third.

jmyeet

The debt has ballooned because massive tax cuts have been given to the already ultra-wealthy.

In the most recent bill, the rules for writing off private jets changed such that you can take the entire write-off in one year instead of over the life of the plane. This alone is set to cost hundreds of billions of dollars [1].

Of the ~433T in debt over the entire life of the US, ~$8T of that came from Trump's first term [2].

Some people physically break their bodies and risk their lives doing necessary but relatively low-paid work. But telling baggage handlers, construction workers, agricultural workers, firemen, commeercial fishermen and agricultural workers that they need to work to 70 instead of 65 so the debt doesn't balloon while allowing Jeff Bezos a much bigger tax break in buying his 3rd private jet is utterly bananas.

[1]: https://inequality.org/article/the-big-beautiful-bill-would-...

[2]: https://www.crfb.org/blogs/how-much-did-president-trump-add-...

latentsea

Ah yes, the mental anguish of knowing you'll never retire because you'll either die before retirement age or they'll just keep pushing it up, so that you do.

missedthecue

Retirement is not an age, it's a financial position. Both my parents and grandparents were able to retire before qualifying for social security payments (and neither ever earned top 30 percentile incomes at any point in their lives).

Diligently save away and invest a portion of your income and you'll be alright.

danaris

Retirement used to be an age, when we had defined-benefit pensions.

As long as you were at least (say) 65, if you retired, you got $X/month for the rest of your life.

None of this "you only get to retire if you were lucky enough to make enough your whole life to save enough that it won't run out before you die—and don't guess wrong about when that happens!" None of this "too bad, the stock market crashed just when you were starting to pull out benefits."

schrodinger

Yes, this. I know this type of comment is discouraged by Hacker News but I really want to help you emphasize that retirement used to be a guarantee by the US government after paying into social security all your life. Now… I don't know.

gadflyinyoureye

To be fair, the original SS age was at the high end of the actuary tables. As science extended life, society failed to move the line of retirement.

betaby

To be fair, at that time personal taxes were not at that level and sales taxes mostly didn't exist.

clipsy

Taxes on the very wealthy were dramatically higher: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revenue_Act_of_1935

alephnerd

The Israel example doesn't pass the sniff test.

While Israel didn't build the next "Intel", it built the next Cisco (Palo Alto Networks), Symantec (Wiz), Akamai, and it's own "Intel" (Tower Semiconductors), and Israeli VC has absolutely cornered the Enterprise SaaS and cybersecurity industry.

Yet, concentrating on business creation seems to ignore the fact that high value industries like much of tech just don't generate that much employment.

The high-tech sector only represents a little over 11% of overall employment in Israel [0]

Median gross salary is around $2800/mo [1] yet tech salaries are around $10,000/mo [2]

While the tech industry is extremely prominent in Israel, it isn't a major employment generator. Most Israelis don't work in tech and are impacted by extremely high CoL - Israel has some of the highest cost of living among OECD countries [3]

This article posits that additional industrial policy can help rebuild large employment industries. While I am strongly in favor of industrial policy, most high value industries are high value EXPLICITLY because they are heavily automated or have low headcount requirements.

Industrial policy for the sake of generating employment simply doesn't work when high value jobs have significant barriers to entry (no, not everyone can code and not everyone can synthesize biopharmaceuticals).

[0] - https://innovationisrael.org.il/en/press_release/2025-high-t...

[1] - https://www.xn----1hcmgxnk8ede.co.il/%D7%9B%D7%9E%D7%94-%D7%...

[2] - https://www.bizportal.co.il/general/news/article/20017760

[3] - https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/icp/data

andsoitis

"There's no solution except higher birth rates or rapid productivity growth."

BLKNSLVR

or a slowing of progress or a regression of the current lifestyles to which most have become accustomed.

The peeling off of some of the more recent layers that have been applied, made possible due to the abundances provided to western society by its ownership of the advanced industrialisation and information ages.

jmyeet

All of this is by design. You get:

- Lower taxes for the ultra-wealthy

- People working longer to make the ultra-wealthy slightly wealthier; and

- Younger people getting padi less, again making the ultra-wealthy slightly more wealthy.

The entire policy and government appratus of the US in particular is designed as a massive wealth transfer from the poor and young to the old and wealthy.

There is no reason why the wealthiest countries on earth can't afford to let people who are 60 years old retire. Other than of course the wealthy would have to pay slightly more in taxes.

I can't find it now but I saw an article talking about all the social and policy ideas that unwittingly got tested in the Covid pandemic. The effects of giving money to poor people (it's not the moral hazard it's made out to be), how schools increase the spread of disease and a whole host of others.

lenerdenator

> There is no reason why the wealthiest countries on earth can't afford to let people who are 60 years old retire.

There is, though.

The 60+ year-olds wanting to retire spent the last four-to-six decades racking up a metric crapload of public and private debt. Not only did they spend a lot, they seriously weakened the ability for revenues to cover said debts. Severe bureaucratic handicapping of revenue agencies, means that an estimated hundreds of billions of dollars in tax go uncollected every year in the United States alone [1]. Imagine what the federal deficit looks like if the US had to borrow a few hundred billion less each year. It's far from zero, but it's better than it looks now.

Retirement isn't a right, it's a math problem. For most of human history, if you lived long enough to get too old to do labor, you were expected to do something (usually helping with childrearing or teaching skills to younger generations) in order to lessen the burden of your existence to others, mainly your family. Now that most labor isn't actually physical and people are living longer, there's less excuse for doing nothing for 10+ years off of savings besides just wanting to. Unfortunately, given the size of deficits in lots of Western nations and the stagnating wages of the younger generations, those retirement accounts are becoming more attractive as a way to pay off debt that the people holding those accounts created.

[1] https://www.pgpf.org/article/the-united-states-forgoes-hundr...

Buttons840

> Retirement isn't a right

Society decides what people's rights are. Why should we not decide that retirement is a right?

The wealthy not paying a wealth tax is not a right.

SchemaLoad

The math still has to check out. Yes I agree getting rid of the ultra wealthy improves the situation a lot and should be done. But at some point you still have too many retired people for the working population to support.

At that point it's going to have to be considered that a 60 year old is still perfectly capable of working low physical demand jobs rather than spending 10-30 years on cruise ships.

lenerdenator

Oh, I'd definitely tax the wealthy.

But that's not going to do enough. The Boomers didn't have enough kids, and the ones that they did have face stagnant wages and international competition for jobs.

Detrytus

There is nothing wrong with living off of your savings. After all it’s the money you earned so you don’t owe anyone anything for it, and you can spend it as you see fit.

The problem with retirement schemes today is that most people’s savings are not enough to pay for their retirement so the younger generations need to chip in.

Marsymars

“Savings” are just an abstraction - people can’t literally live off their savings - they trade their savings for labour, and the system is rigged so that those doing the labour have disproportionately little power to set the exchange rate, and the value of savings get juiced to benefit those holding them.

We could shuffle some numbers around with fiscal, monetary and labour policies in ways that would result in far more wealth flowing from the old to the young, rather than from the young to the old as is happening now, and it would still be true that “people earned their savings and can spend it how they see fit”.

lenerdenator

Well, they could be enough for retirement for a lot of people. That'll mean downsizing and reining in expectations, though.

As for the younger generations, they have even less wealth than those of retirement age. Why should they chip in?

xyzzy123

> how schools increase the spread of disease

I would want to think hard about the second-order effects of preventing transmission of regular school colds & flus before trying to suppress them, which would be that people would miss out on training their immune systems while they are young & resilient.

It would be nice to get sick less often and environmental suppression in schools seems like such an obvious win... but I don't have enough understanding to know if it would really be a good thing one way or the other.

jmclnx

For the US only:

Because due to the current brain dead policies of the GOP in the US, life expectancies in the US are falling.

So instead of storing up Social Security by making the ultra rich pay their fair share, people who do real work to enrich these people will have to work longer. That means they will have a shorter and less healthy retirement.

Now, I am guessing about 40% of people in the US will never be able to retire. I know a couple in that situation right now.

The GOP has been trying to kill of Social Security for almost 50 years, I fully expect they will succeed in 10 years or so.

WalterBright

The growth in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid entitlements is unsustainable.