How renewables are saving Texans billions
83 comments
·June 25, 2025AnotherGoodName
freddie_mercury
My understanding was that the companies aren't getting rich because competition has saturated the market and revenues from energy arbitrage have plummeted in 2025 because everyone needs to discharge during the same limited window.
"Vermillion said, adding that most battery operators in Texas earn the bulk of their revenue during a handful of extreme weather days, so “there might be 15 days over the year that matter for capturing revenue.”
https://www.ess-news.com/2025/05/15/is-texas-battery-landsca...
jl6
There’s still a fortune to be made by whoever can crack seasonal storage. This is the ur-problem of humanity: to pay for the winter using the summer.
bestouff
We're getting there. https://www.euronews.com/green/2025/06/15/sand-batteries-cou...
SideburnsOfDoom
> the companies aren't getting rich ... revenues from energy arbitrage have plummeted
To be fair, there is an upside for such a company no longer being able to extract huge amounts of money from the general public on a regular basis. An upside to the public.
Enron was in this business and in this state.
SlowTao
It was about 15 years back, I remember some reasonably smart but partially anti-renewables folk talking about this. By anti-renewable I would say they were just skeptical with a much higher bar to get over than others. Weren't saying it was impossible but where much more cynically inclined.
They argued there would be issues with renewables unless there was a big uptake in storage. That was the key to making it all happen. Well now we have a big uptake in storage and it is starting to look like the future in that sense is very bright.
Scale is funny like that, it looks like it won't happen for the longest time and then it suddenly become ubiquitous. There is still a long way to go but improvements are happening fast.
padjo
We’re still a long way from figuring out storage for renewables. Here in Ireland in winter we get weeks long periods of calm, cold, overcast weather where renewables generate almost nothing. There’s no known energy storage mechanism that can handle this, so we still have to burn fossil fuels. I don’t doubt we’ll figure it out, but I think skeptics still have a valid point on storage.
space_firmware
Yeah, it's a struggle. The upshot is most of the cost of combined cycle natural gas peaker plants are the fuel costs, so while storage solutions get figured out, or the renewable get massively overbuilt, you can maintain the FF infra for fairly cheap for the these days.
adrianN
You can always produce hydrogen or methane and use ordinary gas turbines to turn it back to electricity.
benrutter
I work for a UK company that manages grid scale batteries - they're awesome!
I wonder how they look in a US landscape that's hostile to renewables. Arbitrage works because solar and wind and very cheap and very indeterminate. The more gas, coal and biofuel (all much more expensive but more flexible) in the grid, the less opportunity for arbitrage.
AnotherGoodName
Yeah in South Australia where it’s over 70% renewables the batteries have been reported to have profit of $46million in a year on a $90million capital cost project.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornsdale_Power_Reserve
No doubt the profits will come down (as long as the free market can do its thing) but for now it’s a crazy market. There’s a reason graphs of battery installations are a hockey stick right now.
I will call out one thing for European readers. You’re suspiciously absent on lists of battery build outs. You guys don’t have lots or lobbying from legacy power providers wanting to maintain the ridiculously high peak prices by any chance?
As in everywhere in the world except europe has a hockey stick of battery build out growth happening right now. (Not a criticism just an Australian confused at why europe as a whole has fewer battaries than australia).
pjc50
Planning rules are just really onerous and inefficient. I've seen a number of reports of battery facilities denied planning permission in Scotland over concerns like "noise" and (slightly more reasonable) fire service access roads.
sveme
Cannot find a graph of battery capacity growth for Germany right away, but anecdotally (stories in the news and number of startups I‘m aware of), that market is super hot right now.
Edit: according to [1], numbers predict a coming tsunami of battery installations for Germany
[1] https://www.pv-magazine.de/2025/01/13/uebertragungsnetzbetre...
baq
Less renewables in the mix and useless politicians mean they aren’t as needed, or perceived as needed. Spain could use some ASAP, no idea why they haven’t built them.
danielscrubs
Why do you think we go to Australia for sun?
And our wind turbines seems to have crazy maintenance costs…
Don’t give our politicians more ideas, let the market just solve this please. They are already taxing energy to death because of ”fairness”.
protocolture
IIRC Musk was trying to get AEMO to reduce the time increment for trading power so they can do even higher frequency trading.
sofixa
> I will call out one thing for European readers. You’re suspiciously absent on lists of battery build outs. You guys don’t have lots or lobbying from legacy power providers wanting to maintain the ridiculously high peak prices by any chance?
The European power grid has multiple interconnections between the various countries, and some of those counties already have their grid scale storage (mostly pumped hydro). So it's much less needed.
So why would the countries heavy on renewables in their mix invest a lot in batteries? For instance the UK can rely on French nuclear and Norwegian hydro as a grid scale alternative source. While sometimes there are continent wide issues (we've had twice a month of low winds + overcast which impacted negatively wind and solar), the grid is sufficiently diverse and dispersed that it works pretty well.
As the recent outage in Iberia showed, it's slightly more complicated than that and batteries could still have a part to play to smooth demand ups and downs. And there are still a bunch of battery projects, even in France that doesn't have that much renewables in its energy mix, being heavy on nuclear.
petesergeant
> I will call out one thing for European readers. You’re suspiciously absent on lists of battery build outs
If I had to pull reasons out of my ass for this, I'd suggest South Australia and Texas both have a great deal of land with shitty agricultural output (as compared to Europe) and a lot more sunlight. I suspect building batteries is obviously very profitable today in Australia and Texas today, and companies will target Europe when the tech is a bit cheaper and the most profitable markets have been saturated.
ggm
I'd love to know if the decision to burn other economies wood pellets in Drax could be ended, and if Batteries can do the job!
benrutter
Yeah me too! Drax seem to share not just the name, but the morals of a certain Bond villain.
Probably not yet though, the UK government seems fairly keen for Biofuel in their net zero policy.
Banning Drax from using woodpellets from important nature (ancient forests, rainforests etc) is probably a route that'll be more likely to havesuccess.
dismalaf
Is there anywhere that's truly hostile to renewables? I live in Alberta, the oil producing region of Canada with a reputation for hating renewables, and we have the most solar and wind power in the country. We just have unfortunately topography that doesn't allow hydro and the powers that be never gave us a nuclear plant so we also use natural gas and a few legacy coal plants...
No one here is against solar panels on their home and few are against wind farms, there's just also the realisation that for many applications, oil will remain for the time being. Aircraft, boats, tractors, and cars in many regions of the world are simply unsuitable for electric power with the current state of electric storage (batteries are heavy relative to energy stored).
WaxProlix
ERCOT has done a great job of setting up incentives, getting out of the way, and letting markets solve their problems. Working with CAISO and then going to set up batteries in ERCOT was such a breath of fresh air for an old team of mine.
whatever1
And tax payers pay for their F ups and then some additional bonuses to the gas traders of BP when Texas freezes.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-27/bp-emerge...
bz_bz_bz
Aside from shutting down some compressor stations that gas companies failed to properly register as essential equipment, ERCOT had almost nothing to do with NG prices.
Gas and power are intertwined but still very separate markets.
Natural gas would have gone even higher had ERCOT not shed load, so if you want to make reductionist statements about complex issues, you could say that ERCOT actually took away from the bonuses of BP gas traders who were long.
whatever1
They did not do their job to regulate the market. Set aside their failure to check for winterization and the complete failure of demand forecasting or execution of rolling blackouts (that ended up being uncontrolled week long power losses that literally killed people).
They had almost uncapped max wholesale prices for energy during the blackouts. At some point it had reached 10k per megawatthour! Of course companies went bankrupt, and of course BP traders held bonus parties. The taxpayers apart from these they also had to bail out the bankrupt retailers.
postpawl
You're technically right about ERCOT's limited role in gas pricing and the regulatory distinctions. But ERCOT did have some direct failures beyond just being a scapegoat, like ignoring federal winterization warnings, the $16 billion overcharging scandal where they kept prices at maximum for two days after outages mostly ended, and poor crisis communication. Even if PUCT and the Railroad Commission should have mandated better reserves and winterization, ERCOT still mismanaged what was within their control.
WaxProlix
That's largely true, but on the flipside at least some of the rush of batteries into Texas to do ancillary services and provide redundancy are a result of greedy capitalists seeing the profits a few hundred MWh can get you in Texas (at taxpayer expense!) and rushing in to get a piece of the pie. So, markets!
bee_rider
Wait, how does it work? If the government is using taxpayer money to buy services… that’s not really a free market solution in the conventional sense, right?
Of course if we have to pretend it is to get Texas to do it… fine I guess.
bob1029
I moved from ERCOT to MISO/Entergy (still in Texas) and my electricity costs have dropped by nearly 50%.
The part that is really shocking to me is the cost to maintain transmission infrastructure is dramatically higher in this area too (power lines in the forest).
I think it's hard to compete with a certain combination of fuel mix and fully amortized 20th century plants.
ProllyInfamous
Texas needs more (any?) pumped-storage hydro (a non-chemical, gravity-fed battery) to store all this renewable energy.
TVA (similar in size to ERCOT, mostly within Tennessee) is about to begin its second such facility, after Raccoon Mountain [0]. Run-of-the-river facilities exist (including two in TVA's jurisdiction), which are capable of pumping water "up" the dam (for later use during peak loads) — perhaps LCRA might explore the feasibility of this?
Regardless of how the energy is stored, it might also (eventually) make sense to join Eastern/Western interconnects (and thereby "store" the energy outside of Texas). But I know ego/"Texus"/pride mentality exists (having grown up in Austin), so I won't hold my breath on accepting Federal regulations...
[0] wikipedia.org/wiki/Raccoon_Mountain_Pumped-Storage_Plant
epistasis
Why would pumped storage be better than the massive amounts of batteries being added right now? Batteries scale small, scale big, can be put where there's already transmission, can be put at either sides of grid congestion to lower that congestion, can regulate frequency, deliver reactive power, and be moved to new locations if the grid changes and they could be better deployed elsewhere. Literally a Swiss Army knife that can grow to whatever size is needed, and they can be thrown up in months as opposed to years.
I'm not sure if hydro could compete on price any more, either. Batteries are so cheap.
typewithrhythm
I don't really know if there is somewhere in Texas that works geographically; but the idea is if you have a good spot you essentially get an arbitrarily large store for the price of one dam.
At some point you get limited by fill/discharge rate, but the cost of storage in a big pumped hydro is still pretty cheap.
null
MobiusHorizons
Pumped hydro is a pretty cool solution, but it requires very specific geography and water supply combinations that are unfortunately relatively rare. I'm not that familiar with Texas's water and elevation situation, but it seems less obviously a good candidate than the TVA. Don't get me wrong, pumped hydro is an awesome solution where it works, but it's not easily deployable in the way that batteries are.
dylan604
What happens to your battery when you are in the middle of a drought and your "battery" doesn't have enough water in it to operate as a battery?
AndrewDucker
You don't need to use a river for pumped storage, you can even have a (mostly) closed-state solution that pumps water back and forth between two holding tanks.
bz_bz_bz
ERCOT is roughly 3x bigger than TVA in terms of both energy demand and service area.
dylan604
They said similar. Similar in the same way a flat arid landscape that is the second largest in size in the union compares to a mid-sized state with mountains and more annual rain fall and is heavily forested with an average temp 20° lower. You know, not the same, but similar. Maybe they meant simile?
gregwebs
Texas is one of the best climates in the US for renewables but in locations with less sun and wind the math will be different. That math includes batteries for load shifting of which Texas is installing a lot.
As renewable generation increases past a certain level grid stability does require additional effort and that’s a lot more difficult to price in. In Texas their grid is isolated from the rest of the US. This may create a lower ceiling on renewables since they can’t send excess generation anywhere other than their own batteries .
yieldcrv
I think people misunderstand the aggregate conservative position:
They just dont want the state to fund the cause and don’t consider it the state’s role or problem or the state as a solution to a problem that isnt wholly solved by the proposed expensive solution
People outside of that group attribute the disagreement to insanity
When in reality as soon as an economical and private sector solution is there, republicans are on board
I see a way to bridge consensus so maybe I’ll run for office eventually since this is still too abstract for most
standardUser
> When in reality as soon as an economical and private sector solution is there, republicans are on board
The leader of the conservative party has claimed that windmills kill whales, cause cancer, are "garbage" and pledged to prevent any being built in his second term.
eigen
> They just dont want the state to fund the cause and don’t consider it the state’s role or problem or the state as a solution to a problem that isnt wholly solved by the proposed expensive solution
Texas Senate Bill 819 "relating to renewable energy generation facilities; authorizing fees." would have made it the states role to create an expensive solution.
> (1) for a solar power facility, ensure that all facility equipment is located at least: (A) 100 feet from any property line, unless the applicant has obtained a written waiver from each owner of property located less than 100 feet from the facility; and (B) 200 feet from any habitable structure, unless the applicant has obtained a written waiver from each owner of the habitable structure; and
> (2)for a wind power facility, ensure that all facility equipment is located at least 1,000 feet from the property line of each property that borders the property on which the facility is located, unless the applicant has obtained a written waiver from each owner of property located less than 1,000 feet from the facility
Texas Senate Bill 388 "relating to the legislature’s goals for electric generation capacity in this state." would have made it the states role to create an expensive solution.
> (a) It is the intent of the legislature that 50 percent of the megawatts of generating capacity installed in the ERCOT power region [this state] after January 1, 2026 [2000], be sourced from dispatchable generation [use natural gas].
are the Texas bill sponsors not part of the aggregate conservative position?
benrutter
I think this seems at odds from what I hear from republicans using retoric that's anti-renewable, anti-climate change and pro-oil.
Ignoring that though, energy is a market defined by government policy.
To give an example, solar assets can't control when they output, so many countries have contracts where solar gets a fixed price. Without that, peak solar times might even have negative pricing.
Those are two seperate ways to frame a market, one making renewables profitable and one making them uneconomic.
We can shrug and say "make them profitable under the current conditions" but that ignores the fact that fixed prices for output makes energy cheaper and cleaner as a whole.
My point is, there is no "true market", its something governments define and control. The question should be what outcomes you want.
I'd argue for cheaper, cleaner and more diverse energy, but I'm not in the US.
energy123
One of the roles of the state in a mixed economy is to cautiously intervene when there's market failure. Whether through tax policy or industrial policy. Republicans don't want to stop the market failure because they don't believe there is market failure. It's not only a disagreement in values it's a disagreement about basic scientific and economic facts.
brookst
Now do oil. How do Repubkicans feel about subsidies for oil?
yieldcrv
If it passes and they benefit from it then they wont avoid being beneficiaries of it and they’ll keep it
While if they dont know they are beneficiaries of a policy then they’ll proverbially eat their face by removing it
sremani
Without Oil is there is no modern civilization. I do not care about your politics.
Even if you replace Oil as source of energy the pervasive petrochemicals in the modern world are not easily replaceable.
America burns 12 calories of energy to transport 1 calorie of food. without Oil subsidies, everything will be expensive and especially food would take a large chunck of American household expenditure.
Quality of life is inversely proportional to the cost of food and energy. The lower the cost the better the life.
DarmokJalad1701
> the pervasive petrochemicals in the modern world are not easily replaceable
Then let's use the finite amount of oil for that, instead of burning it.
pjc50
Global warming also affects the feasible latitudes for food production.
Teever
The US throws away between 30–40% of its food supply.
The US has policies that are outright hostile to mass-transit.
The US has policies that produce some of the ugliest and grossly inefficient suburban environments that have ever existed.
Sure, oil is a critical part of modern civilization, but we could still have modern civilization, and a hell of a better one at that with better policies that end up using far less oil.
ec109685
How is this getting out of the way:
“In markets like Texas, the wholesale price of electricity is set equal to the price of electricity from the most expensive generator needed to meet demand, often referred to as the marginal generator.”
moooo99
I‘m not sure why people are often confused about this. Electricity is at a basic level a commodity. A kWh from solar isn‘t any different than 1 kWh obtained by burning coal.
If the current market situation allows for a price of 12ct/kWh, why should I - just because I have the more effective technology - get less than the fossil guy?
Generally this is even beneficial because it could increase margins for renewable and grid scale batteries
adgjlsfhk1
This is great for renewable energy. It means that solar plants and batteries can get payed at coal/nuclear rates, and during the middle of the day, fossil fuel plants have to turn off since they can't compete with solar prices.
bpodgursky
Texas is only ahead in renewables by certain biased metrics.
If you instead measure how much people talk about renewable energy, California comes out far ahead.
reillyse
Why the hate on California apparently it’s 11th in the country with 43% renewable
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_renew...
Lot of others that could be complained about (like Florida and Arizona)
envoked
I feel like Washington state doesn’t get enough credit. 72%+ from renewables and water reservoirs are the original grid scale battery.
masklinn
That’s because hydro does not deserve credit: if you can do hydro you already do because it’s cheap and reliable, and if you can’t do hydro that’s it. It is thus of next to no interest. Same with geothermal heating.
kortilla
No, they deserve credit. Otherwise protestors get the upper hand and get the dams decommissioned.
If you downplay the right thing, the wrong thing for energy gets selected for other reasons.
envoked
Valid point.
bpodgursky
Washington is actively tearing down dams for salmon runs.
All their hydro was built 60 years ago, by the federal government. The state deserves absolutely no credit.
readthenotes1
"how much people talk"
Is hot air a useful commodity?
steveklabnik
I believe your parent was making a sarcastic comment, and you two agree.
skippyboxedhero
Wrong because the underlying assumption is that we are moving from a system where energy can be brought on as required to an equivalent system.
One of the big issues with renewables that the author is, I can only assume, is deliberately eliding is that energy cannot be brought on as required. Even in Texas, you still need non-renewables to fill the gap and you still need to recover the costs of running those assets in the price...Texas is the absolute best case scenario, and it isn't working (as the comments show, it is quite easy to see why: people are obsessed with politics and reality matters less than your political enemies being wrong, companies have also realized that the subsidies in this area are incredible if you tell politicians they are right). The same thing is happening with battery operators.
You also see the same thing in other countries that invested heavily in renewables (UK is one example, they are mothballed a lot of non-renewable sources ten years ago, the government had to introduce massive subsidies for retail consumers because electricity prices are so high due to the need to recover costs of the remaining non-renewable sources when the wind happens to stop blowing): it has to increase the cost of energy because you have to pay for renewables and pay for the battery operators to do nothing and pay for the gas operators to do nothing.
Dylan16807
> it has to increase the cost of energy because you have to pay for renewables and pay for the battery operators to do nothing and pay for the gas operators to do nothing.
No, it doesn't have to increase the cost.
If you have a town powered by gas, the cost of maintaining and staffing the gas plant is locked in.
But most of the cost of that gas plant is the fuel.
If the total cost per kWh of a solar or solar+battery installation is lower than the fuel cost of the gas plant, then you build it. It saves you money even though you're paying the gas operators to do nothing part of the time.
If it's not cheaper than fuel, you don't build it. No harm no foul.
Follow that strategy and you'll end up with lots of renewables without wasting a penny.
Though honestly some idle gas plants don't cost that much. How many kilowatts do you need? 4? Okay, the fixed costs for 4 kilowatts of combined cycle gas power are $50 per year. That's all it takes to have backup production for the entire grid, even with no base load plants anywhere.
SlowTao
This has been a reasonable point to bring up. Renewables when they are first coming into the system represent only a small part of the energy supply. But as they get bigger, the swings in availability end up swinging the entire system around to a larger degree. This is usually where Gas plants take up the slack trying to balance out the system. Storage is the key.
I suspect this is an issue that looks worse in 'intuitive' foresight but not so bad in educated retrospective but we will not know until we pass through that point. I am but an armchair "expert" on this. Usually when something like this comes up, 15 people who know better than me will highlight something I was not aware of.
antupis
The issues with Texas and the UK are that their grids are relatively isolated. Like here in Finland, we have a bigger share of renewables than the UK or Texas, but electricity is still cheaper than UK and pretty much the same as in Texas.
defrost
> Texas is the absolute best case scenario,
Better examples around the globe and within North America are non isolated grids - Texas is in a weak position to share it's excess and to get back energy from wind blowing in other states.
acyou
Hurrah for heavy metals! Hurrah for gigawatt AI datacenters! Hurrah for battery materials mining! Hurrah for Chinese manufactured solar panels! Hurrah for megawatt air conditioning! Hurrah for overall peak power demand in Texas up 20% in the last 10 years!
Yeah, when the panels degrade, seriously, what will happen to runoff into streams and groundwater? Have we all been on a farm and seen what weather does to abandoned vehicles and structures?
Still, remarkable how much solar capacity has been installed, I had no idea. 18 GW seems like quite a lot. Is that figure for electrical power, or does that also generously include all solar gain on all structures?
The best thing happening right now are the grid scale batteries. They make the companies that build them rich through better arbitration of power prices at the same time they vastly lower power prices for everyone.
No more peaks of power costing ridiculous amounts (and troughs of negative power prices).
You can be anti green for all it matters on this one. The batteries are massively profitable. They are coming on mass everywhere and there’s no stopping them.
https://comptroller.texas.gov/economy/fiscal-notes/infrastru...