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Google to back three new nuclear projects

perihelions

Here's a better article:

https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/07/google_signs_another_...

> "Elementl didn't respond to questions by press time. Its public materials offer little clarity on its actual operations—aside from broad claims about providing "turn-key project development, financing and ownership solutions customized to meet our customers' needs while mitigating risks and maximizing benefit."

> "The nuclear developer, founded in 2022, presents itself as a facilitator of advanced reactor projects. But it has not built any reactors to date and describes itself as a "technology-agnostic nuclear power developer and independent power producer," signaling it does not back any specific reactor design."

> "This approach aligns with the background of Elementl's CEO and chairman, Christopher Colbert, who previously served as CFO, COO, and chief strategy officer at NuScale Power."

ertgbnm

> "meet our customers' needs while mitigating risks and maximizing benefit."

Holy corporate jargon batman! I love seeing example of phrases like this out in the wild. Stating this implies that minimizing risks and maximizing benefit is not a need of most customers? IMO, it's better not to say stuff like that at all. It's basically a meaningless phrase, it adds no information to the sentence. In fact, I'd go so far as to say it's generally a sign that they are doing the opposite of whatever the phrase means.

conception

Corporate equivalent of using a larger font and/or double spacing your term papers.

moffkalast

Corporate equivalent of acting like a douchebag who constantly makes up imaginary stories about how cool they are to distract from them being a complete loser.

JumpCrisscross

> Stating this implies that minimizing risks and maximizing benefit is not a need of most customers?

It’s not, at least for nuclear power. In Europe, for example, the debate is entirely emotional. So saying they’re working for a rational customer is sort of meaningful, even if corporate speakified.

kayodelycaon

> Stating this implies that minimizing risks and maximizing benefit is not a need of most customers?

I believe this should have meaning. It would mean risk mitigation is a primary objective of the company. And not every company decides to consider risk mitigation as a primary objective.

The problem is that risk mitigation is a long term objective. Who has time for that?

rdtsc

>> "meet our customers' needs while mitigating risks and maximizing benefit." > I love seeing example of phrases like this out in the wild

I can image that's the stuff kids would say when asked why is the candy bowl suddenly empty: "Well, you see, we were was just meeting our needs while mitigating risk and maximizing benefit".

dkarl

> Stating this implies that minimizing risks and maximizing benefit is not a need of most customers?

Honestly, I'd rather them explicitly commit to minimizing risks than say, "We're going to address the needs of our customers, and that probably includes minimizing risks, at least in most cases, right? Product will let us know when they've done the research."

It's better that they say these things than that they don't say them. The real problem is not that they say them, but that we can't be confident they'll live up to them.

libraryatnight

"We will appear to meet standards while extracting maximum profit"

ethbr1

'We at the Kurchatov Institute of Atomic Energy and NIKIET feel that the RBMK reactor design meets our customers' needs while mitigating risks and maximizing benefit.'

Animats

Oh, it's the NuScale guy again.

NuScale got far enough to get approval to build a test reactor at the Idaho Reactor Testing Station, which is in Outer Nowhere for good reasons. But they never got enough funding to build it.

The trouble with most of these small modular reactor schemes is that their big pitch is mostly "we don't need a big, strong, containment vessel because ... reasons."

There's no inherent problem in building a small nuclear reactor. Here's one from 1957, near Oakland, CA.[1] It's safety if something goes badly wrong that's a problem.

History:

- Chernobyl - meltdown and fire, no containment vessel, major disaster.

- Fukushima - meltdown, too-small containment vessel, large disaster.

- Three Mile Island - meltdown, big strong containment vessel, plant lost but no disaster.

Alternative reactor history:

- Fort St. Vrain - high temperature gas-cooled, subject to helium plumbing leaks in radioactive zone, shut down and plant converted to natural gas.

- AVR reactor, Germany - pebble bed reactor, had pebble jam, had to be shut down, extremely difficult to decommission.

- Sodium reactors - prone to fires.[3]

- Molten salt reactors [4] - require an attached chemical plant that reprocesses radioactive molten salt.

Most of the problems of nuclear reactors in practice involve plumbing. Everything in the radioactive zone has to last half a century or so without maintenance. That's possible with distilled water as the working fluid, but everything else tried has not worked well.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1O8xAB_FDI

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AVR_reactor

[3] https://www.nuclearsafety.gc.ca/eng/resources/research/techn...

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molten-salt_reactor

perihelions

- "That's possible with distilled water as the working fluid"

Distilled water is pretty corrosive at high temperatures, isn't it? I'm no engineer but I've read that the water-chemistry management of nuclear reactors is a highly finicky topic.

Here's a crazy fact I can't get out of my head: the PWR types of reactors rely on lithium hydroxide in their nuclear water pipes, as a critical corrosion inhibitor. But the US can't make this (meaning, the isotopically enriched lithium of the correct flavor for nuclear reactors); it imports 100% of this key ingredient from foreign countries— currently, exclusively, China and Russia. Our top geopolitical adversaries could kneecap most of our nuclear power fleet, if they wanted, because of the difficult engineering minutae of "water is corrosive".

True story. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-13-716

epistasis

> But they never got enough funding to build it.

It's worth examining why they never went forward with builds. In 2023 their cost estimates for power went from a manageable $55/MWh to a barely-managable $93/MWh. And that was before all the additional cost increases that are typical for first projects.

They were unable to paint a story that was financially compelling.

Nuclear's problems are not TMI, it's Summer, and other failed builds. The government will insure catastrophic damages. It will not insure against construction cost overruns, and those may not kill people but they kill companies dead.

AlotOfReading

The vallecitos reactor site is still there to look for anyone in the bay area, at least for the next few years. It's along the 680 corridor just south of Pleasanton and it's been quietly producing medical isotopes since the 70s. They shut down the power factors after they discovered that the entire Pleasanton valley is a gigantic active fault zone called the calaveras fault, and the site itself is in a rift from from another, smaller fault called the positas fault.

Probably not the greatest placement in hindsight.

Animats

The long de-fueled reactor vessel was removed just last year.[1] Sent to Texas as a final resting place. The containment dome was still in place then. The next step is to restore the Vallecitos complex to "conditions suitable for productive reuse for other commercial or industrial purposes."[2]

So that's the aftermath of the first commercial small nuclear power reactor.

[1] https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Vallecitos-react...

[2] https://www.northstar.com/northstar-closes-ge-hitachi-vallec...

themaninthedark

Where did you see that the containment at Fukushima was too small? I thought that most of the release was done because there was not enough storage of contaminated water.

Animats

Fukishima containment.[1] The top of the containment vessel is shown in yellow, just above the red cylinder containing the reactor. The containment vessel was a heavy shell, but not much larger than the reactor. It had to contain any steam overpressure resulting from an accident, and didn't have enough volume that the steam pressure would decrease, and maybe condense. The surrounding building wasn't a pressure vessel and couldn't contain anything. Building panels blew out, leaving visible holes in the walls.

Three Mile Island containment.[2] The entire huge concrete and steel building around the reactor and support equipment is the containment vessel. When the reactor failed, radioactive steam escaped into the large containment vessel, where it was contained.

[1] https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/appendices/fuk...

[2] https://www.ans.org/news/article-3916/the-three-mile-island-...

concordDance

> Fukushima - meltdown, too-small containment vessel, large disaster.

Probably overselling the "large" there... at least on the scale of global power production.

lostlogin

You wouldn’t call Fukushima a large disaster?

The financial cost is at $180 billion US. That seems large.

epistasis

I'm not sure if nuclear has always been a field where charlatans proliferate, but it's certainly true of the past few decades. The Summer plant in South Carolina was completely fraudulent, sending the power executives to jail for their fraud. Billions spent and nothing to show except a hole in the ground. Vogtle was slightly better in that they powered through to construction completion so that nobody cared about the deception and grift that resulted in a cost 3x that of estimates.

The startups have been bad too, with some disingenuously starting regulatory processes and then not even responding to questions or attempting to follow through.

South Koreas is the most developed nation that has had success building, and even they send people to jail for construction fraud.

There are undoubtedly many honest and earnest people trying to build new nuclear. But it's hard to tell who until after billions have been sunk and misallocated.

Workaccount2

It's likely because the NRC is the most insanely regulatory body of the US government. Ostensibly, this is a good thing, nuclear power, meltdowns, radioactive waste, etc.

But really I cannot emphasize enough how strict and overbearing they are.

"Oh that 12V backup battery pack needs to be replaced? Better get the same one from the same manufacturer"

"They aren't in business anymore but we have this 12V battery the fits perfectly, same specs"

"Nope, not certified with that system. You can start recertification that will cost ~$40M if you like"

"...."

There is so much ass covering and not wanting to take responsibility that the market is basically in paralysis.

epistasis

I don't think that's an accurate depiction of NRC for builds like at Georgia's Vogtle. Even in California, entire reactors have been installed backwards and the regulatory problems were not the big problem.

Given that France's builds in both Finland and France itself have been similarly disastrous as the US builds, I don't think the NRC seems to be the likely cause. And France is much better at building big things than the US is, their infrastructure costs are a fraction of US costs. IMHO there's something deeper to the lack of success of nuclear as a technology. It's a mainframe trying to compete in the cloud era.

nolist_policy

Do you have a source?

ToucanLoucan

> I'm not sure if nuclear has always been a field where charlatans proliferate, but it's certainly true of the past few decades.

I think it's less an issue of anything to do with nuclear in particular, and more that we're just living in an absolute golden age of charlatans. It's like the 1980's all over again except instead of fraud being doable because of a lack of information, fraud is doable because everyone for whatever reason you'd like to describe is thoroughly committed to pretending it's the 1980's.

legulere

It's not necessarily malice, it's very easy to underestimate the difficulty building and running a real nuclear reactor. The 1953 'Paper Reactor' memo still applies fully today: https://whatisnuclear.com/rickover.html

cyberax

> South Koreas is the most developed nation that has had success building, and even they send people to jail for construction fraud.

That's why :)

Russia is also fairly successful at building reactors. Although, somehow their orders pipeline has been getting shorter and shorter (wonder why...).

os2warpman

>Elementl

Missing vowels + no plan + a leadership team stacked with MBAs, investment bankers, and FAMILY MEMBERS?!?= bullshit private equity "play".

Let me predict what is going to happen: a team of connected "playaz" are going to get real companies with cash and the government to give them money to shake up the nuclear market.

Then the leadership team is going to hire a token staff of scientists, engineers, and public policy folks.

They are going to have a groundbreaking ceremony for a facility (not a reactor, like an R&D facility or "rapid innovation incubator" or something) that is highly publicized and subsidized by state and local business development grants and credits but will either never be finished or never fully staffed.

Nothing will happen for four years until they either fade out of existence or declare defeat due to "regulatory and market conditions" with nothing to show but some powerpoints and press releases.

The hundreds of millions of dollars that flowed into the organization is never spoken of or seen again.

Then a couple of years later they'll register another .io domain with missing vowels and start all over again.

agos

this sounds like one of those Google PR moments where they desperately try to paint themselves as the good guys. Remember when they announced contact lenses to help people with diabetes?

Maybe this is related to the talk about splitting Google that's going around these days?

neuronexmachina

> Remember when they announced contact lenses to help people with diabetes?

For anyone curious about what happened with that: https://web.archive.org/web/20181117031510/https://blog.veri...

> Our clinical work on the glucose-sensing lens demonstrated that there was insufficient consistency in our measurements of the correlation between tear glucose and blood glucose concentrations to support the requirements of a medical device. In part, this was associated with the challenges of obtaining reliable tear glucose readings in the complex on-eye environment. For example, we found that interference from biomolecules in tears resulted in challenges in obtaining accurate glucose readings from the small quantities of glucose in the tear film. In addition, our clinical studies have demonstrated challenges in achieving the steady state conditions necessary for reliable tear glucose readings.

foota

It seems like these news articles about XYZ superscaler announce agreement to purchase power from nuclear startup come up every few months. My assumption is that there's very little needed from Google et al to sign these agreements, and the upside is very cheap power if the startup miraculously pulls it off, so they might as well.

rockemsockem

You don't think Google is interested in getting more energy for less money?

doublerabbit

You mean White Washing? How dare to think Google would think of such a thing. They're not evil after-all.

floxy

I suppose like anything there are multiple reasons, but what are the top 3 why California electric rates are so high (compared to the rest of the U.S.)?

https://www.chooseenergy.com/electricity-rates-by-state/

Why doesn't the state encourage more capacity to bring costs down? (to encourage electrification/EVs, etc.) Is it because they are phasing out natural gas? Is it to encourage roof top solar? Or trying to reduce consumption by having high prices? Or environmental permitting? "Lobbying" by entrenched incumbents? Or maybe the high price is due to taxes and not the price of generation?

ruined

california electric rates are so high because the state board keeps raising them

https://www.ewg.org/news-insights/statement/2025/02/pge-reco...

PR staff will talk about the insurance liability and mandated action to improve infrastructure (wildfires keep starting on power lines and then burning down cities) but it's hard to look away from the record profits

jandrese

My impression was that the California utilities were being operated in revenue extraction mode for decades and prioritized paying shareholders over infrastructure maintenance leading to the crisis situation we are in today. The enormous costs today are due to the need to keep paying owners as well as catching up on the deferred maintenance, and in classic fashion the owners are still gobbling up most of the money and starving the operations budgets.

chermi

PG&E is guaranteed a rate of return, meaning its profit margin is basically state-guaranteed. A large share of blame falls on CPUC and the structuring of the utilities. CPUC must decide whether they approve of rate before pge implements them, and I think it almost always does.

I'm by no means excusing pge, they were pretty clearly negligent and failed to meet their obligations. But it's a state-backed operation, which pretty much always means less punishment for failure to operate effectively.

skybrian

The dividends were probably ok until they went bankrupt, which resulted in not so great a deal for shareholders after all.

Where did the money go? Paying for wildfire damage.

Aloisius

Spending more money on infrastructure means profits will increase.

There's not really any way around that. Capital expenditures are profit.

cryptonector

Well, no, capital expenditures can create future profit. Emphasis on _can_ and _future_.

ViewTrick1002

The average wholesale prices in California is nothing special.

The costs come from the wildfires and a derelict grid requiring large infrastructure upgrades.

olalonde

I can see a derelict grid and wildfires increasing power outages but how does it increase the cost of electricity itself?

ViewTrick1002

Those costs include grid fees?

Grid fees pay for damage caused by wildfires.

cryptonector

That's all? California has the economic might to not have that problem.

epistasis

I'm not sure excatly what you mean by "that problem," but economic might means having the ability to maintain massive infrastructure in sparsely populated, difficult terrain. It means paying massive amounts of money to inspect, clear brush, and replace 100 year old equipment piecemeal.

Additionally, that economic might means that we have very high labor costs, and the ways of fixing things that are cheapest may be different for California than other parts of the country. But the utility is incentivized to spend as much as possible on these efforts (they take a fixed percentage of costs as profit), and the regulators have no clue what's going on. So proposing a method that's the cheapest elsewhere will get a rubber stamp.

guywithahat

It's largely forest fires and regulation. Electricity prices are regulated by the state, and at the same time they mandate certain green energy goals. To hit these goals, electric companies have to ignore infrastructure to build renewable energy sources. If the infrastructure gets too old, it risks starting a fire, which could cost the company billions. When the state sees them lose money after a fire, the state lets them raise prices.

It is a very silly cycle which could be ended by either removing green energy goals so they could improve infrastructure, and to not hold electric companies directly liable for all damage from a fire.

JumpCrisscross

> It's largely forest fires and regulation

It’s PG&E and regulatory capture. Santa Clara County is off PG&E and has normal energy tariffs.

neural_thing

It's because the California government doesn't believe in markets, prices as incentives or anything like that. California govt believes in state mandates

lern_too_spel

California famously deregulated its electricity market at the end of the 20th century, becoming the first state to do so. https://paylesspower.com/blog/deregulated-energy-states/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000%E2%80%932001_California_e...

chermi

You understand there are multiple types of regulation, right? The deregulation you're referring to was with respect to generators being able to sell into the grid.

The relevant regulation here is the state-backed guarantees on returns for pge under authority of CPUC. CPUC approves basically any rate increases pge approves. It doesn't need to do this. It could hold pge accountable based on what they determine qualifies as operating expenses vs. infrastructure improvements. PGE wants everything to count as infrastructure improvement because they're guaranteed a rate of return on infrastructure projects.

Obviously it's difficult to determine what "infrastructure improvements" were actually due to poor management and maintenance vs. what infrastructure improvements are required purely to meet demand (for example) or from "normal wear and tear".

It's hard to reconcile 1) the fact that there's pretty broad consensus that PGE fucked up and didn't fulfill its obligations, especially maintenance and 2) reporting record profits. Clearly there's something wrong with the system, particularly the CPUC-utility relationship. AKA, regulation.

ryan93

Wow no regulations in California. First I’m hearing of this

ryan93

Wow no regulations in California. First I’m hearing of this

brettermeier

Not believing in "free" markets but in state mandates would lead to stable prices.

selfselfgo

And there’s no richer state in the union.

outside1234

If anything the renewable sources are keeping rates in check.

California is raising rates to build out infrastructure for electrification and mitigation of the dangers that now exist due to climate change.

anon6362

While I was going to community college in the late 90's, I had an IT consulting biz where I serviced mechanical engineers and folks in the US nuclear industry who were ex-General Electric (GE NE). I learned nuclear was heavily-regulated (rightfully so) and costly but the main barriers to new sites were insurance, the huge capital investment, and the very long project cycles. As such, these are just too risky for most business people and investors. Nowadays, even with SMRs, the ROI still doesn't make sense given the massive, massive advances in renewables and regional grid storage. Very few Americans want an unproven, fly-by-night startup SMR in their neighborhood or in their county. I'd be okay with just a few mega reactors in fixed sites in very remote areas that would be heavily defended with perimeter security and anti-aircraft/-drone emplacements. I'm not okay with SMRs on flatbed trailers with minimal security in urban areas.

bpodgursky

Every compute company knows that power shortage is a looming crisis. They don't have nuclear expertise in-house and are desperately looking for somewhere to put their money that seems to have experience and capability

This is a good thing, but will be fruitless unless the US NRC modernizes in parallel with the industry to actually approve a new reactor in less than geologic time.

philipkglass

The NRC isn't the bottleneck. For the recently completed Vogtle Unit 3 reactor, construction work and permitting work ran in tandem. Early construction work started in 2009 and all NRC approvals were completed by 2012. Neither NRC regulations nor lawsuits ever halted construction. Vogtle 3 was originally supposed to be ready in 2016. It suffered enormous cost overruns and delays due to the companies actually building it before finally entering service in 2023.

https://www.powermag.com/vogtle-3-reaches-initial-criticalit...

The identical AP1000 reactors under construction at VC Summer in South Carolina also suffered enormous cost overruns and delays, again not caused by the NRC or lawsuits. The construction problems were so severe at the VC Summer project that the project halted after spending over $9 billion, it led to the largest business failure in the history of South Carolina, and a couple of company executives went to prison for securities fraud:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nukegate_scandal

pitaj

NRC is holding back new designs, not existing ones.

philipkglass

The AP1000 was a new design when Vogtle 3 and 4 were planned. It was certified by the NRC in 2005. NuScale had its small modular reactor design certified by the NRC just a couple of years ago:

https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nrc-certifies-first-us-sm...

If you mean that the NRC holds back designs that are more exotic than plain old light water reactors, maybe so, but that isn't relevant to the "looming power crisis" mentioned by bpodgursky up-thread. Light water reactors are the most affordable and fastest to build everywhere in the world. Pressurized heavy water reactors (like CANDU) are also mature designs. Everything else is slower and more expensive to build, with very limited operational history compared to the dominant water based reactor designs.

delusional

Ignoring AI (don't @ me) what are we doing with all that compute? Google (the search engine) hasn't meaningfully changed. Shopping is still largely the same as when Amazon first started out. Websites are pretty much the same. I don't understand what we're doing with all those operations.

I guess VOD is new, but does that really demand that amount of compute?

rockemsockem

More people and more companies engaging in digital services which are backed by Google cloud or another cloud?

Hilift

Ludicrous. You can't build a reactor in the US for less than $10 billion. Combine that with natural gas at prices five times less than Europe and that means that no-one will loan money for a project. If they do, it is usually subsidized by naive taxpayers. Meanwhile a windmill can transported on the Interstate in Kansas unattended and installed in two days.

muth02446

I view nuclear as a prudent diversification of energy sources: What happens if some supervolcano erupts, and because of the ashes significantly less sunlight reaches the surface of the earth. Presumably, there will also be less wind then.

seatac76

If that is your concern, then the thing to worry about is dramatic loss in food production before energy becomes an issue.

raron

Plats survive some time (days) without light. If there is not enough backup power source (peaker gas plats, not nuclear though) the grid could quickly collapse causing a continent-wide blackout from what it would be really hard and it would take a long time to bring the grid up. Cities would be uninhabitable within a few days (no water, not sewage processing, no heating).

ehnto

Not to be too simple about it, but this does happen every night. We already require (and achieve) sufficient grid diversification, without batteries and all the cool stuff coming in future.

I am not against nuclear, but I do believe we would be fine without it too.

looofooo0

we can make food from oil, gas and other hydrocarbons.

biophysboy

I think we would have a harder time finding food and clean water in this scenario

delusional

Even on a dead earth the AI must consume and indescribable amount of power.

cryptonector

Shades of Isaac Asimov's The Last Question.

Plot twist: the computer's last act at the end of The Last Question was just an LLM's hallucination.

YokoZar

If your worry is volcanoes, geothermal power can remove energy from them before they explode. On a sufficient scale they could even prevent them.

croes

Are we playing What-if?

What if hackers/terrorist attack the power plants?

What if the operating companies values profit over security?

What if an earthquake or Tsunami hits nuclear power plant?

throwaway2037

Am I stupid or naive to ask:

    > What if hackers/terrorist attack the power plants?
Are most power plants in 2025 air-gapped? I assume yes.

croes

And hackers can’t beat air gaps

https://www.missionsecure.com/blog/cyber-attack-india-larges...

The Iranian nuclear program was also air gapped.

Didn’t stop Stuxnet.

It’s interesting what you can do with USB drives.

And more power plants means more possibilities for human errors.

sschueller

Even without I think wind will become too expensive eventually to make it worth while. Especially when solar gets more efficient and cheaper.

Wind has down sides like moving parts and requiring giant concrete poors. Birds strikes, noise as well as ground vibration are also issues.

bhelkey

> Wind has down sides like ...Birds strikes

Many birds die as a result of human activity. In the US, the leading cause of these deaths is cats [1]. Cats cause four times more bird deaths than the next anthropogenic cause of death, flying into windows.

Cats cause ~1000x more bird deaths than collisions with wind turbines.

[1] https://www.statista.com/chart/15195/wind-turbines-are-not-k...

gcheong

By sheer numbers, yes, but the kinds of birds killed are different. Larger, slower reproducing birds such as eagles, condors, etc. are more at risk being killed by wind turbines because deaths in those groups have a much larger effect whereas cats kill a much larger number of birds but they tend to be smaller, faster reproducing species and as such their numbers overall aren't as much at risk.

bhelkey

> Cats cause ~1000x more bird deaths than collisions with wind turbines.

Edit: this should be Cats cause ~10,000x more bird deaths than collisions with wind turbines.

Ylpertnodi

>Birds strikes...are also issues.

Unless you're vegetarian, or vegan, how so?

aziaziazi

There’s plenty meat eaters that care of birds for multiple reasons and perceive their diminution as an issue. One of them might be other animal (that they care less) regulation, like mosquitos and mouses. Another one is the delight to see them flying and singing around. And another one: seeds dispersions that contribute to the flora health.

aziaziazi

You can add (no) recycling of huge composite balades.

megaman821

That just isn't a real problem. A single large American landfill could take 100 years worth of wind turbine blades and not even be 25% full. If we were so inclined, we could also shred them and add them to concrete for sidewalks or the like.

natmaka

Recyclable blades are gaining traction: RecyclableBlade, ZEBRA, PECAN...

There even are efforts to recycle existing ones: https://www.offshorewind.biz/2023/02/08/newly-discovered-che...

In most advanced nations landfilling them is prohibited, and many are now burnt in cement kilns.

pfdietz

So what? Even if every wind turbine blade were landfilled it would add only slightly to waste streams already in existence.

The US produces hundreds of millions of tons of construction and demolition waste per year.

frollogaston

It's not even a what-if, it's just cheaper than solar for what you get. Especially compared to residential solar, which is also quite dangerous.

brrwind

How is residential solar dangerous?

therealdrag0

Mostly people falling of roofs I think. When you have lowest bid contractors going up and down millions roofs each for a measly 10kw of power. The aggregate deaths per kw are worse for residential than other power sources.

barbazoo

Related: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43927371

> Ontario set to begin construction of Canada's first mini nuclear power plant

_aavaa_

4x300 MWe for 20.9B CAD for this vs Vogtle 3 and 4 are 2x 1117 MWe for 36.8B USD.

So the starting stated price is only 20% cheaper than that train wreck. Will love to see how high this number gets given it's a first of its kind.

epistasis

It will likely be more expensive than Vogtle, smaller reactors are just more expensive and they go big because it's more cost effective.

What's slightly different is the financial risk profile. Failing on a 1x 300WM $5B project is slightly easier than a $18B 1GW project.

My personal hypothesis is that nuclear decisions are made almost entirely along financial lines, instead of the safety concerns that dominate most debate about nuclear.

_aavaa_

I think this is actually backwards. The reactors are build big to get economies of scale. Building 4 small ones, each of which will also go over budget, only to produce a more expensive product out of each (electricity) puts your economics backwards.

bryanlarsen

$20B for 300MW, and that's before the inevitable massive cost overruns. Continuing the Ontario provincial government's history of lighting taxpayer money on fire for electricity.

chickenbig

> $20B for 300MW

Estimated 20B CAD for 4 x 300MW power stations.

throwaway2037

Is that competitive compared to solar/wind + battery? I doubt it.

dfilppi

Nuclear (hopefully fusion at some point) is the only plausible way to meet energy needs in the future (that we currently know of). Fear of nuclear waste isn't irrational, but highly overblown because catastrophic events are more emotionally compelling than the slow degradation of either living standards and/or environment caused by competing technology.

leoapagano

30 years ago, I would have said the same thing. But right now solar is seeing technological advances at an exponential rate, such that by the time we build a nuclear power plant, get it approved, and get it running, solar will be both cheaper and safer while using less space.

7e

Solar isn’t dispatchable and adding 24 hour storage doubles the cost. Adding seasonal storage increases the cost by 150x.

notTooFarGone

So you claim that and that one "paper" from 2019 calculating worst case and with 2019 battery prices. Bad thing is battery prices are falling through the floor and 6 years make all the difference.

Please get your prices to 2025.

pfdietz

> Nuclear (hopefully fusion at some point) is the only plausible way to meet energy needs in the future (that we currently know of).

This is simply false. At this point, its falsity has been sufficiently well demonstrated and communicated that you should have known it was false. If you are not deliberately lying, it's only because you steered yourself away from learning the truth.

rockemsockem

I think you probably just disagree with OP about the levels of our energy needs in the future.

If we just sustain human life and pleasure then yeah renewables are probably fine. If we want to pursue highly energy intensive applications and then further if we want to pursue those applications with mobility then we need nuclear.

pfdietz

We can pursue high energy intensive activities with renewables, higher than if we use fusion.

On Earth, solar allows high energy use before we run into limits from direct thermal pollution, since it uses energy already hitting the planet rather than introducing new energy.

In space, the energy available from sunlight vastly exceeds any available from fusion, and the feasibility difference tilts even more toward solar.

For mobility in space, beamed power will be best, and solar works with that just fine, even out to interstellar distances.

7e

Solar and wind aren’t reliable energy sources. They’re not dispatchable 24x7 and fluctuate along various timescales. Storing renewable energy for 24 hours doubles the cost. Storing it seasonally increases the cost 150x. Show me any place, anywhere, which is using renewable for baseline energy production 24x7.

At this point, that’s sufficiently well known that you should have known it. If you’re not deliberately lying, it’s only because you steered yourself away from learning the truth.

doublerabbit

Life spans of reactors can cause instability. Nuclear requires unstable mines for unstable materials which are unstably finite. Controlled by unstable governments and where by a nuclear explosion causes a very unstable aftermath. I see nothing stable about nuclear.

Unless, you mean renewable being "unstable" in the sense of no wind, no sun equates to no power. Then yes, but only until the fuel is spent.

However, renewables are stable when resources are available, stable in providing consistent clean fuel and stable in cost on upkeep than say one of a nuclear reactor.

Which is why you combine all three.

> Show me any place, anywhere, which is using renewable for baseline energy production 24x7.

El Hierro, the smallest of the Canary Islands, holds a unique distinction as the only island to operate solely on wind and waterpower for 28 consecutive days.

The facility ingeniously combines wind generation with pumped storage hydroelectric generation. Now that's cool.

https://www.renewableinstitute.org/el-hierro-a-renewable-ene...

pfdietz

I do know it. And I know that the intermittency can be dealt with at finite and tolerable cost, and the resulting solutions are likely to be cheaper than those using nuclear power.

Those seemingly stuck on advocating nuclear power do not seem to understand the advances made both in storage technology and in system design to deal with intermittency.

doublerabbit

What happens in such case were a reactor was to blow. What then? Or are you saying we just deal with it when it occurs?

I am not fully detesting nuclear, but I do disagree it a cure to the environment crisis as Solar is plenty and free; as are Wind and Water too.

The risks of what if; and that now we live in such a volatile world. How are you going to convince me it's safe?

How do I know a drone won't strike it in the next war? Some sponsored hack?

Stuxnet was an organised hack that was created to aid destruction to nuclear hardware.

Chernobyl is still unsafe and that's many years ago and was recently damaged again by a drone.

robotnikman

To be fair, Chernobyl was an older and unsafe reactor design in comparison to the newer ones we have today.

Anecdotally, I live near the Palo Verde nuclear powerplant in Arizona, we receive all of our electricity through a combination of solar (clouds are very rare here) and nuclear. These 2 factors mean energy is abundant in the state, and necessary in the summer for survival; air conditioning is a necessity due to the extreme temperatures in the summer.

The Palo Verde plant was commissioned in the 1980, and provides more power than any other reactor in the US. Since its not located near a body of water, it uses treated wastewater for cooling. It is a Pressurized water reactor design similar to the ones used on Naval vessels, a much safer design than the one used in Chernobyl, and none of which have ever experienced a meltdown or critical failure. Overall, I've never experienced any anxiety regarding the reactor not too far from where I live, it is the least of my concerns.

I believe the future will need to be a combination of renewables, to put all our eggs in one basket in foolish. Smaller and safer self contained nuclear reactors (like the ones used on Submarines) seem very promising for data centers. AI is on the rise, for better or worse, and it's power demands are constantly growing.

lesuorac

> To be fair, Chernobyl was an older and unsafe reactor design in comparison to the newer ones we have today.

That's not fair.

Chernobyl was a reactor that failed to pass safety tests being put into production. Any failure should be considered expected.

crote

On the other hand, assuming the industry doesn't completely stagnate, "X was an older and unsafe reactor design in comparison to the newer ones we have today" will always be true.

I'm not worried about another Chernobyl. We've had one already, all reactor designs have been tested over and over again to avoid a repeat. The real risk is in all the small and seemingly insignificant things working together in unexpected ways. There will always be a nonzero chance of an incident, and due to the nature of nuclear reactors the impact of an incident is essentially unlimited.

Think of it like commercial airliners. Are they safe? Yes, absolutely. They are the safest method of travel available. I have zero worry about my safety when stepping on an airplane. But despite the tiny odds airplanes do crash from time to time, simply because there are so many of them.

An airplane crash has a smouldering crater and a few hundred dead as its result. Not great, but not terrible either: as a society we build a monument and move on. Would we still be flying airplanes if - no matter how unlikely - a crash meant that an entire city would become uninhabitable?

XorNot

Nuclear reactors do not surprise explode. The Chinese designs are passively safe: cut off all power and they'll simply sit there. They do not require active cooling.

The Gen 4 designs, which they also have, are physics safe: literally drop bombs on them and they still won't fail (bombing a nuclear plant in general is an over stated risk for other reasons too). They're building those now too.

crote

> Nuclear reactors do not surprise explode. The Chinese designs are passively safe: cut off all power and they'll simply sit there. They do not require active cooling.

The same was said of Fukushima. And it was - until a tsunami fried all the backup local power keeping the control systems alive. Turns out the "passive cooling" still requires some valves to be controllable...

doublerabbit

Hacks, cyber espionage?

So it sounds like the view point of "deal with it when it happens then" and that's what puts me off nuclear.

Nuclear is too unstable when something does occur to be contained and as to when dismantled.

abetaha

Ignoring what Elementl is developing as their material is confusing, what would be some of the practical energy sources for power hungry AI workloads other than nuclear?

bee_rider

Personally I’m skeptical of nuclear power given how much easier it is to incrementally add renewable capacity (sure, intermittence is a problem, but I think we can deal with it by being cleverer).

But anyway, if anybody (other than the government, which gave up long ago) can pay the upfront costs of nuclear, it is the big tech companies like Google.

> […] Google has set 2030 goals to reach net zero emissions across its operations and value chain, […]

Man, I remember when 2030 seemed like the future. But now it seems downright aggressive. Good luck Google.

nandomrumber

You’re skeptical of nuclear, a proven technology with excellent safety record, the only power generation that has a completely closed fuel life cycle, and believe in a technology we don’t have.

If we (the West) had built out nuclear to satisfy our electricity needs, implementing new nuclear power tech as it improved, we could have electricity subscriptions like we have mobile / home internet planes.

You’d just pay for amps, say 50 amp, 150 amp, 300 amp, all you can consume.

But instead we have expensive electricity (at least here in Australia), where your mind is constantly loaded wit being aware of your energy consumption.

ViewTrick1002

You do know that nuclear power has experienced negative learning by doing throughout its entire life?

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03014...

You don’t get ”free electricity” with absolutely massive handouts to the nuclear industry.

Instead renewables and storage are delivering on the ”too cheap to meter” promise.

belorn

It was promised that by now half the grid of EU should had been operated under green hydrogen. Instead we had yesterday in Sweden news the opening of a freshly new built natural gas power plant as the solution to that intermittence problem. Of course, those natural gas power plants are paid through subsidizes as grid stability is the government responsibility, and thus the bill for that natural gas is put on taxes and connection fees.

I have said it before, but in order for me to believe the claims that renewables and storage are delivering in places like europe, you first have to stop investing and building new natural gas power plants. Rather than classify natural gas as "green", as Germany pushed through in EU, we should have laws to prevent new natural gas power plants from being built and existing fleet should be slowly dismantled. If renewables and storage can deliver on the ”too cheap to meter” promise, they should do so in an environment without natural gas being used behind the scene.

dporter

Renewable power is cheap because it also receives massive government handouts in the form of tax credits.

chermi

Are you really denying the learning curve based on one paper about France? You don't think maybe there's other confounding factors*? A single survey of a single country isn't counterfactual. Are you really certain that with a relatively fixed design the learning curve wouldn't apply at sufficient scale, all else being equal. The learning curve is one of the most time-tested laws in construction.

*Yes, I understand it's inflation adjusted. There are so many possible explanations for the observed negative curve that go beyond the bold, broad claim that learning curve theory doesn't hold in nuclear.

In my mind, an (at least) equally reasonable explanation is that the conditions for the learning curve weren't met. (This probably sounds like "no true Scotsman". I admit that the learning curve is a function of scale and relative to mass-production examples, the "signal" for the learning curve is probably weaker to begin with given how many facilities of the same design were actually built.)

-Changes in design pull you backward on the curve. There were lots of changes in French design

-Unsteady expansion timeline messes with the workforce expertise part of the hypothesis. You want ideally an accelerated or at least constant build rate, not large gaps where the workforce either respecializes in another field or retires.

- regulations increase over time. Part of the conditions for the theory are implicitly "all else being equal".

-while inflation adjustment partially accounts for this, labor becomes more expensive as gdp per capital increases (see, for example, low skill manufacturing leaving China as it becomes wealthier). I don't know the details, but given the rapid post-war growth, I'm guessing gdp/capital was growing pretty quickly during the French build out

For relatively low volume manufacturing, the learning curve effects are probably smaller to begin with, so it's easier to get an effective negative learning rate. With so many confounding factors that violate the premise of theory, I find it rather unscientific to definitively claim the theory is just wrong in an entire industry.

energy123

Yeah, if we went back in time and built nuclear then we'd have nuclear today, and the fixed costs would have been paid by a previous generation. Is that surprising?

But that doesn't inform us on what the optimal policy decision is in the current year of 2025 given 2025 prices and time-to-build of the various options.

In Australia renewables have the perfect confluence of multiple factors:

- low seasonable variability of insolation in the north

- high wind speeds in the south

- land availability for solar

- high statistical diversification of renewables due to size

- higher than normal costs of nuclear due to first-of-a-kind costs dominating the total build-out costs due to the small energy needs of the country, and higher labor costs

The CSIRO studied this for Australia and released a report about it. Even when you factor in storage and transmission costs, renewables are significantly cheaper than nuclear.

nandomrumber

The whole argument is like going back 40 years and claiming there’s no point thinking about deploying nor researching & developing solar / wind because we don’t have the expertise nor technology.

We still don’t. Australia doesn’t manufacture solar panels, and other than building the wind turbine masts locally, we don’t manufacture wind turbines either.

Refusing to commit to developing a domestic nuclear power industry commits future generations from having that knowledge and skill base.

And I struggle to understand how anyone can, with a straight face, claim nuclear is too expensive, as though more solar and wind is going make retail electricity prices in Australia cheaper.

AU$0.325 per kWh is ridiculous. We export more coal to China than we use locally, and their electricity is cheaper (around half the cost) and dominated by coal, hydro, and nuclear.

CSIRO perfidy.

GolfPopper

I can't speak for the prior poster, but I am highly skeptical that the current business ecosystem in the United States is capable of effectively and safely building new nuclear power infrastructure, particularly if and when the ever-popular but, to the best of my knowledge, never-completed Small Modular Reactor pitch gets involved.

XorNot

Conversely China has built a lot of new nuclear capacity, and has projects for SMRs in the works too.

The problem as you allude to isn't the technology.

hannob

> the only power generation that has a completely closed fuel life cycle

What exactly are you talking about? It does not sound like it describes the way nuclear power, uranium mining, and nuclear waste storage works.

nandomrumber

Explaine how nuclear waste is dealt with.

Detail how nuclear waste is continuously pumped in to the atmosphere. Or shredded and buried like wind turbine blades which are entirely waste with no recycling value.

Hint: it isn’t.

There’s so little of it, it’s still all predominantly stored on site at the power plants.

Highly radioactive reactive waste isn’t highly reactive for very long. And long lasting waste isn’t very reactive at all. Vitrified it’s chemically non-reactive.

natmaka

> proven technology with excellent safety record

The real long-term effect of past nuclear accidents is a subject of debate, and the potential worst case a concern for all.

> the only power generation that has a completely closed fuel life cycle

Not at industrial-scale.

> and believe in a technology we don’t have.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-fossil-renewa...

pfdietz

It's proven to not be competitive.

All these nuclear announcements are smoke screens to cover construction of large amounts of gas fired capacity. Anyone expecting dramatic near term increases in electricity demand will need to go with gas (or renewables, but tariffs make that less competitive); nuclear, especially new designs, cannot be rolled out quickly.

crote

> a proven technology with excellent safety record

Excellent safety, if you ignore Chernobyl, Fukushima, Three Mile Island, the Tokaimura accidents, the Church Rock spill, the beaches near Dounreay, and dozens more.

Nuclear power rarely kills anyone, but when (not if) things go wrong, it tends to create a massive mess which costs billions to clean up - if a cleanup is even possible at all. It is the only power source which has made entire cities impossible to live in.

I personally don't believe this is necessarily a dealbreaker with modern nuclear plants in rich countries, but if you want to convince people of its safety you probably shouldn't be mentioning its historical record.

> a completely closed fuel life cycle

Only if you completely ignore the huge amount of pollution and waste generated by mining, reprocessing, and disposal.

Again, I personally don't believe this has to be a dealbreaker, but the waste generated by the nuclear industry is still an unsolved problem. We've been operating nuclear reactors for 80 years now, but permanent waste disposal and reactor decommissioning is still in its infancy. The current state-of-the-art is essentially "let it rot in place and hope nothing goes wrong while we figure out a way to deal with it". I think it can be solved, but unless we've done so you probably shouldn't make it part of your argument.

> If we (the West) had built out nuclear to satisfy our electricity needs

We did. France hit 80% nuclear, for example. 9% of global power is supplied by nuclear plants. There are over 400 plants currently operational, and 700 have been decommissioned. We aren't on "baby's first nuclear reactor" anymore.

> implementing new nuclear power tech as it improved

We did. It made the plants too expensive to be commercially viable.

> You’d just pay for amps, say 50 amp, 150 amp, 300 amp, all you can consume.

Not a chance. Although fuel would indeed be quite cheap, power still isn't going to be free: someone has to pay off the massive construction loans.

Consumer power consumption is also a lot more flexible than something like internet. People don't suddenly start to consume a lot more data when their internet gets faster - a single person is still only going to watch one Netflix stream at a time, and that'll work just as fine on a 100Mbps connection as on a 8Gbps one. And all the equipment is already prepared for the faster connection, so it's not like they are saving any money by keeping it slow.

But if your power is free, why bother with gas heating? Why go for a heat pump when resistive heating has cheaper equipment? Why bother isolating your home? Why shut off your lights when you leave your home? Making electricity free means we'll be using a lot more of it, which means having to build significantly more expensive nuclear power plants.

If this was an option, countries with abundant hydro would be providing free power. And they aren't.

> But instead we have expensive electricity

Taking all costs into account, nuclear is currently the most expensive form of generating electricity. While building additional nuclear could get us (mostly) off fossil fuel, it is definitely not going to make your power bill any cheaper. Nuclear power is only viable with hefty subsidies - which in practice means turning off dirt-cheap solar and wind to run expensive nuclear plants.

blibble

> Excellent safety, if you ignore Chernobyl, Fukushima, Three Mile Island, the Tokaimura accidents, the Church Rock spill, the beaches near Dounreay, and dozens more.

no, these are included in the calculations of "deaths per kilowatt-hour"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-d...

jenadine

> the waste generated by the nuclear industry is still an unsolved problem

No it's not unsolved. There are burial sites. The spent fuel is kept on the power plant for years so it cools down.

Also even without nuclear power, there would still be nuclear waste to take care of because of the medical, defence, research, and other industries.

Mawr

> Excellent safety, if you ignore Chernobyl, Fukushima, [...]

Nope, it's all included, how could it not be?

> Nuclear power rarely kills anyone, but when (not if) things go wrong, it tends to create a massive mess which costs billions to clean up

Yep, yet it's still the safest, which means your argument has to be wrong.

Just to show you the magnitude of your error, the Fukushima accident was directly caused by a tsunami which killed 20,000 people. But your main concern from that event is the cost of cleanup of radioactive material.

More people die from falling off roofs while installing solar panels than from nuclear accidents.

> but if you want to convince people of its safety you probably shouldn't be mentioning its historical record.

Well you're not technically wrong. As you've inadvertently demonstrated with your irrational arguments, since people didn't use reason to arrive at their conclusions, they would not be likely to be persuaded by it.

> Only if you completely ignore the huge amount of pollution and waste generated by mining, reprocessing, and disposal.

Do you mean to say the waste is significantly worse than for solar panels, wind turbines, etc.?

> Again, I personally don't believe this has to be a dealbreaker, but the waste generated by the nuclear industry is still an unsolved problem.

Inert solid waste sitting in a barrel somewhere is not a problem that is worth talking about.

Again, the magnitude of your error is outstanding. We've been simply releasing all the, radioactive mind you, products of burning coal into the atmosphere for the past few hundreds of years but you're concerned about a tiny amount of solid waste.

> > If we (the West) had built out nuclear to satisfy our electricity needs

>

> We did. France hit 80% nuclear, for example.

You cherry-picked the single country with the biggest share of nuclear by far.

> > implementing new nuclear power tech as it improved

>

> We did. It made the plants too expensive to be commercially viable.

Ironically, that's because the standards for nuclear plant safety are determined by the sort of irrational thinking you're presenting here.

> Taking all costs into account, nuclear is currently the most expensive form of generating electricity.

And that's where the issue is buried, I don't believe you're taking all costs into account.

Is coal really cheaper when you include the health and environmental damage it creates? It literally can't be, the costs of human created climate change will be eye-watering.

Are renewables really cheaper once you consider the end goal of a 90%+ renewable grid? The costs of accounting for the inherent intermittency of solar and wind go up exponentially as you increase the share of renewables in the grid.

Adding the first 10% of renewables is trivial, you need no extra storage since the grid itself will simply absorb the difference.

Adding the last 10% is horribly expensive and I don't believe you're accounting for that at all.

bee_rider

Due to political issues, the US doesn’t have the capacity to engage in infrastructure projects that take more than ~2 years to complete, unfortunately.

dmm

> intermittence is a problem, but I think we can deal with it by being cleverer

Solar power is great but intermittence is the main issue with it. If you look at 30 year historical weather data, many highly populated regions have two week periods with almost complete cloud cover. Storage and intercontinental power transmission are usually listed as the solutions to this, but the costs of these solutions are rarely included.

titzer

Solar can still generate up to 25% of their peak power with full cloud cover.

CooCooCaCha

The issue is renewables are not a complete solution no matter how good it feelz

bryanlarsen

> the costs of these solutions are rarely included.

Solar plus storage is included in all the major levelized cost reports, like from the NREL.

PaulHoule

Not in any realistic sense. This report

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/powerplants/capitalcost...

just mashes together a PV array with about an hour of storage and quotes a price for that which is low and is certainly not going to get you through the night.

So many things drive me nuts about that report and the discourse around it that, I think, contribute to people talking past each other. For instance, quoting one price for solar energy is nonsensical when the same solar panel is going to give much more energy in Arizona than it is in upstate New York. The cost of a solar + battery system is going to be different in different places. In upstate NY we deal with a lot of retailers that are based in places like Bentonville, AK who just can't believe you might need an electric space heater in late April or otherwise your chickens might die. Since 95% of the world's population lives in a milder climate it's no wonder our needs don't get taken seriously.

The intermittency problem involves: (1) diurnal variation (overnight), (2) seasonal variation (do you overbuild solar panels 3x so you have enough generation in the winter or do you invest in very long term storage?) and (3) Dunkelflaute conditions when you are unlucky and get a few bad weeks of weather.

I've seen analyses of the cost of a grid that consider just smoothing out one day, but not one that covers seasonal variation. (So much of it comes down to: "how many days of blackout a year can people tolerate?")

With a significant overbuild or weeks worth of storage capacity costs are not going to be so favorable against nuclear energy. The overbuild offers the possibility that you could do something useful with the extra power but it is easier said than done because "free" power from renewables is like a free puppy. You have to build power lines to transmit it, or batteries to store it, or you have to feed it into some machine whose capital costs are low enough that you're not going to worry about the economics of only running it 20% of the time. (Go tell a Chemical Engineer about your plan to run a chemical factory 20% of the time and that's probably the last time you'll hear from them.)

linhns

Yes, and people have been as clever as possible dealing with this issue. There is just no good way to solve it.

rcpt

Renewables are only easy if you ignore regulations. For whatever stupid reason local busybodies lose their shit about windmills regularly and they are frustratingly hard to ignore.

pjc50

Nuclear has an even worse local credibility problem, but I suppose you need fewer plants.

worldsayshi

Doesn't revenue sharing often turn those frowns upside down? More inclusive business models might help?

ryathal

For the farmer that owns the land the windmill got built on it's great. The handful of houses in the area get fuck all though and actually have to deal with the externalities.

tough

Usually what happens is they buy out one local government, pay them, and usually fuck up the neighbors as the local government being paid not only has the incentive of money but can say put that hazardous facility just at the circumvention to their neighboring places, which get 0.

preisschild

> given how much easier it is to incrementally add renewable capacity

The problem is, the weather dependency makes it harder the more you add, because you will have too much when the weather is optimal and next to nothing when it isn't.

ivan_gammel

This reminded me of how France had to limit nuclear outputs because of the heatwave. New designs can probably mitigate the risk but it will inevitably add to the operational and construction costs.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/warming-rivers-threa...

preisschild

Its not about "new" vs "old" designs. Cooling towers have been a feature for decades, which those french nuclear power plants just didn't have before, because it wasn't necessary yet. Thanks to climate change it now is.

Also it isn't as bad as it sounds. They had to throttle some nuclear power plants slightly. This lead to a loss of less than 0.2% of the total 2022 nuclear generation in france.

bee_rider

Skill issue, there’s no such thing as too much energy, we need to get better at steering the stuff.

ViewTrick1002

Storage is absolutely exploding. With China adding 74 GW in 2024 [1] alone and for the US it was expected to make up 30% of grid additions [2] before Trump came with his sledgehammer of insanity.

Replacing Vogtle with renewables TWh for TWh and then building $63/kWh [3] storage with the money leftover leads to enough storage to supply the equivalent to Vogtles two new reactors for 10 days.

That is how utterly truly insanely expensive new build western nuclear power is.

[1]: https://www.ess-news.com/2025/01/23/chinas-new-energy-storag...

[2]: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64586

[3]: https://www.ess-news.com/2025/01/15/chinas-cgn-new-energy-an...

PaulHoule

That's a reasonable way to think about it, but is 10 days enough? It seems 12-24 hours would be needed to smooth out diurnal variations, but there is also the seasonal variation of 2x-3x in many places which either requires a large investment in overgeneration or huge amounts of storage. There is also this problem

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkelflaute

which means the storage requirements will be a bit more than you'd think otherwise. You can't get reputable people to quote a price on a whole power grid because of all sorts of uncertainties such as "how many days of outage will people tolerate a year?"

If we use electricity to drive other decarbonization efforts, lets say green steel, or "petrochemical" manufacturing, or sustainable aviation fuels, the grid might become less tolerant of variation rather than more. Use the word "start-up" around a chemical engineer and they're likely to jump out of their skin because starting up a chemical factory is an unprofitable and sometimes dangerous operation. In an oil refinery, for instance, there are systems that produce hydrogen and others that consume it and it reaches a steady state. During startup you may have to make up inputs that aren't available and dispose or store outputs that don't have consumers. There are heat exchangers all over the place to recycle heat but you're going to have to supply steam to some of them and cooling water to others. The system is dynamically stable when it is running but during start-up vulnerable to all sorts of problems, plus people are crawling all over it doing various operations opening up the possibility of human errors such as sucking in storage tanks. In particularly the chemistry used to make jet fuel from syngas or methanol is horribly capital intensive to begin with, increasing that cost 5x by only running the factory 20% of the time takes something that's probably a non-starter to begin with [1]

So far as Voglte a lot of the cost overrun might go away if we just "stayed the course" and built more reactors of the same design. The real sticker cost is probably a bit more than they say it is, but if you could build one bungling free you'd think it could be made for less. It's not just a "western" problem, as the AP1000 is built as a number of "modules" in a factories in China and they waited for years for those factories to figure out how to build the parts and sometimes when they got those parts they were built wrong. If China is succeeding where we are failing it is because they can, politically, raise people's electric bills in the short term in order to dominate an industry in the long term. The main build they are doing now is

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hualong_One

which is an improved reactor of the kind the French were building back when the French were building large numbers of reactors reliably.

[1] when they really are forced to aviation will probably line up with ground transportation around some single entity fuel like methane or DME

melling

US Net Zero is 2050. With 25 years remaining, I think shooting for 2030 seems reasonable.

We’ve just about hit peak coal.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/dec/18/coal-use-to...

titzer

> The world’s coal use is expected to reach a fresh high of 8.7bn tonnes this year, and remain at near-record levels for years as a result of a global gas crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Not sure that counts as "just about hit peak coal".

barbazoo

We’re not adding solar fast enough and are still struggling with storage. This would be a great way to bridge the gap. Not if the data centers consume all this new energy of course which seems to be what’s happening. Maybe after everyone has turned their own portrait into a studio ghibli picture we can go back and use that new, clean energy to solve the climate crisis.

crote

The deployment of solar is growing exponentially, with its total capacity doubling roughly every three years. Wind is growing at a similar rate. Renewables currently already account for 30% of the global electricity production, and we're seeing projections of over 45% in 2030.

Assuming the projected 2025-2030 installation speed is realistic and flattens out - bit "if", but not completely unrealistic - that means we'd be looking at 75% renewables in 2040 and 90% renewables in 2045.

Nuclear reactors take 15 to 20 years to build, and it'd take an additional year or 5-10 to scale up construction capacity. If we go all-out on nuclear now, that means significant nuclear power starts coming online in 20-25 years - so 2045-2050. At that point there is no more renewables gap left to bridge. There might be a small niche left for it if there is going to be essentially zero innovation in storage and short-term peaker plants, but who's going to bet billions on that?

Nuclear would've been nice if we built massive amounts of it 30 years ago, but we didn't. But starting a large-scale nuclear rollout in 2025? It just doesn't make sense.

barbazoo

> Nuclear reactors take 15 to 20 years to build, and it'd take an additional year or 5-10 to scale up construction capacity.

I just don't know if that assumption is true.

Looking at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/small-modular-reactor...

> The timeline is to finish construction of the first reactor by the end of 2029, and connect it to the grid in 2030.

Sure, let's add 100% buffer because it's a major project, that's between 8-10 years from now. Not bad.

Are we talking about different kinds of reactors maybe?

mmooss

> We’re not adding solar fast enough and are still struggling with storage. This would be a great way to bridge the gap.

Will it be built before we have sufficient renewable capacity?

1980phipsi

Google can’t have blackouts. So helps to have some nuclear in the energy mix.

blitzar

Why not?

At this point optimising their electricity cost by load balancing their compute to where electricity is cheap, free or negative on a minute by minute basis would be a sizeable cost saving. Savings that would possibly offset the hardware overprovisioning that they would need.

jeffbee

Yeah, I would say of the organizations in the world that care about power outages, Google would rank among those most prepared to deal with them and the least flustered when they happen. If it has been too long between power outages Google will cause one intentionally, as an exercise.

null

[deleted]

croes

France has nuclear and had a blackout.

ttfkam

The last time France had a blackout on the scale of Spain and Portugal was 1978. France has been and remains one of the top electricity exporters for Western Europe.

Because of nuclear.

By comparison, Germany dropped its nuclear power industry in favor of focus on renewables. Now they import electricity generated by nuclear from France and buy fossil fuels from Russia despite recent Russian aggression.

Who isn't dependent on fossil fuel imports from Russia? France. Who is looking to ban all internal combustion engines from their largest city by 2030? France.

Because of nuclear.

barbazoo

Misleading I’d say

> Residents of Andorra and parts of France bordering Spain were also reporting being hit by the blackout.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/04/28/spain-portugal...

ttfkam

"…by being cleverer."

Like harnessing the atom for enormous amounts of 24/7 power per unit volume of fuel and not emitting CO2 while we do it? Yes! Let's do that! And work on making reprocessing more affordable, so we don't even have to mine any more fuel (at least for the next 150 years).

eqvinox

I don't get it. Training giant LLMs can easily be task managed to line up with solar and wind availability. Shut off half the DC at night, go full power when it's sunny and windy. If they integrate the powerplant, they can easily manage this.

Is avoiding HW underutilization really worth going nuclear? The most expensive energy source of all?

looofooo0

Well then you only get 50% of your compute, hence your compute is twice as expensive (ignoring power costs.)

eqvinox

I guess I'm sufficiently divorced from ops as to not know what the relationship of these costs is. I had assumed that power & cooling is a notable factor, but it sounds like the silicon itself is a majority of the cost?

looofooo0

Think 20% power cost, 80% infrastructure where most are fixed cost.

melling

Do the “no nuclear, renewables are the future” people have any comments?

We burned a few decades saying solar and wind are the solution. This set us back greatly in the struggle to reduce greenhouse emissions.

sebastialonso

Never understood the "I'm solar" or "I'm nuclear" crowd. The issue is an engineering problem, not a baseball match.

As an system-oriented person, give me a healthy combination of available, battle tested, new and promising solutions, fine-tuning weaknesses with strengths.

Go to the stadium to solve your local team/visiting team issues. You are all falling to Big Fossil antics.

pjc50

The nuclear boosters are particularly odd. I can engage in solar boosterism with my own money: I have 3.7kW on my house. I'm not going to have a backyard reactor, this isn't the Jetsons.

nandomrumber

Roof top solar doesn’t work in apartments, and it also doesn’t work for renters.

Roof top solar is great for people with spare cash to optimise heir future cash flow.

I advocate for nuclear because it guarantees the poor won’t freeze in the dark.

opo

In most places home rooftop solar systems are heavily subsidized by everyone else. Also, in almost all cases, the home installation doesn’t have enough battery power to actually last through inclement weather and so is free riding on the reliability provided by the grid, putting more costs on the less well off. The whole thing is sort of a reverse Robin Hood scheme. One might argue that we should be subsidizing solar energy, but then the subsidies should go to utility grade solar. Money is limited and is fungible - a dollar spent subsidizing utility solar will go much, much further than a dollar spent subsidizing rooftop residential solar.

As the statista.com report says >...Rooftop solar photovoltaic installations on residential buildings and nuclear power have the highest unsubsidized levelized costs of energy generation in the United States. If it wasn't for federal and state subsidies, rooftop solar PV would come with a price tag between 122 and 284 U.S. dollars per megawatt-hour.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/493797/estimated-leveliz...

EasyMark

We're weird because we want a proven power supply to be built and used? Are the French really that much more capable than the USA that we can't replicate or surpass what they've done in their country with nuclear?

melling

Does the engineering problem have any time constraints? I suppose my sense of urgency comes from stated climate goals.

An extra 50 years to solve the problem changes everything.

looofooo0

Lets face it deploying nuclear around the world will add other mayor headaches like nuclear profileration.

nandomrumber

What nuclear proliferation?

How many nuclear electricity states are there? 30

How many nuclear weapons states are there? 9

What headaches are those nine nuclear capable states providing, exactly?

How has the world been made worse by having nine nuclear capable states? Practically, not just hypothetical anxieties about an unrealised future.

pjc50

Let's ask people what the correct number of nuclear plants that should be built to decarbonize Iran is.

SoftTalker

That's happening anyway.

matthewdgreen

Solar and wind are being deployed in enormous quantities. The technology is mature and marching up the exponential portion of the adoption S-curve. Nuclear isn’t. This isn’t even a value judgement: it’s just a statement on the incredible advantages of a technology that can be produced in factories, vs one that currently can’t.

klabb3

> Solar and wind are being deployed in enormous quantities.

Yes, but that's not what's concerning the skeptics anymore, especially for solar (thankfully - the cost reductions and efficiency gains have been great). Aside from the well known geographical variance, I think the biggest legitimate concern is intermittence.

Let me try to turn that into a decent question: What variable other than energy output is most useful in order to compare energy sources? For context, all I've seen when it comes to intermittence is flame war with weak arguments thrown from both sides of the debate, i.e. "intermittence is not a problem at all, we just need batteries" to "intermittent sources are worth a fraction of an equivalent baseload source".

Honestly, I've not been convinced of either side, and (if I'm not alone in that sentiment), it may be a problem of education and communication.

epistasis

Intermittence is a solved problem with storage, and storage is being deployed at an absolutely massive scale on grids that are market-driven for profits, namely Texas.

ViewTrick1002

This seems to be revisionist history trying to position nuclear power as some underdog?!?!?

We threw absolutely massive handouts at the nuclear industry 20 years ago.

Only look to Vogtle, Virgin C. Summer, Olkiluoto 3, Flamanville 3 and all other projects. Moorside, Oldbury, Wylfa and countless in the US.

Had new built nuclear power delivered on budget and on time nuclear power would definitely have been part of the solution.

Instead Vogtle provides electricity costing 19 cents/kWh. Virgil C. Summer is a $10B hole in the ground and Flamanville 3, which is not finished yet, is 7x over budget and 13 years late on a 5 year construction schedule.

The true underdog from that time, renewables (and storage) deliver energy cheaper than even fossil fuels.

melling

Remember that time France went from 7% to 70% nuclear energy?

https://youtu.be/1WNjyxeBsWc?si=kVa2qf0uBeFrAyYB

ViewTrick1002

Yes? That was half a century ago. The equivalent choice in 2025 is renewables with storage.

Today they are wholly unable to build new nuclear power as evidenced by Flamanville 3 being 7x over budget and 13 years late on a 5 year construction schedule.

Their EPR2 program is also in absolute shambles continually being pushed into the future while revising up the costs.

Now hopefully targeting investment decision in mid 2026 and the first new reactor online by 2038.

Until 2038 we should of course stop decarbonizing. No point reducing the area under the curve.

ZeroGravitas

Many countries are rolling out TWhs per capita of renewable generation faster than France did at its peak of nuclear rollout.

It was impressive, but it's been overshadowed by modern renewables.

natmaka

Nuclear ELECTRICITY, not 'energy'!

In France about 60% of final energy is produced thanks to fossil fuel.

Moreover the cost of this 'nuclearization' was huge (France debt is abyssal, and taxes are very high)

Details: https://sites.google.com/view/electricitedefrance/messmer-pl...

pjc50

I'll consider apologizing when one of the Google plants comes on line, whenever that is.

null

[deleted]

mmooss

> This set us back greatly in the struggle to reduce greenhouse emissions.

What set us back was and is resistance to action on climate change, led by fossil fuel corporations and US conservatives, which has continued for decades. It's a fundamental policy of the Republican Party. Trump is already taking drastic action in that regard; it was one of his higher priorities. To try to blame someone else is absurd, and probably a talking point from their playbook.

ziml77

Many of us who care about the environment have hated the widely-held anti-nuclear stances. It's a very clean source of energy. Renewables ended up being the focus because they had to be. There was no chance of pushing nuclear forward when the general sentiment was that we needed to regress on nuclear.

sunaookami

>Many of us who care about the environment have hated the widely-held anti-nuclear stances

Don't try to position yourself as the majority voice. Nuclear energy is all but clean and I don't understand the odd push in the last few years to go all in on nuclear even though there was a common understanding that it should not be the future.

bryanlarsen

20 years ago nuclear was the fastest, cheapest and best method for carbon free electricity, so the fossil industry pushed solar & wind as a distraction.

Today solar & wind are the fastest, cheapest and best method for carbon free electricity, so the fossil industry pushes nuclear as a distraction.

croes

Nuclear energy was never cheap, it was always heavily subsidized. Just ask Joe Kaeser the former CEO of Siemens.

He said no nuclear power plant was ever profitable

Mawr

Profit is tied to the subsidies, so that statement by the CEO is meaningless.

When you say nuclear was never cheap, what are you comparing it to? The impossible to compete with subsidization of coal plants? How can you compete with plants that are allowed to dump toxic radioactive waste into the atmosphere that kills hundreds of thousands annually, but your plants have to go through regulatory hell to prove they're 99.99999999% safe before even being approved?

HideousKojima

>20 years ago nuclear was the fastest, cheapest and best method for carbon free electricity, so the fossil industry pushed solar & wind as a distraction.

The histories of pretty much every green party in the western world and their anti-nuclear activism suggests otherwise.

jayd16

You ever notice how "green parties" are somehow so incredibly effective against nuclear and not effective against fossil fuels?

Why do you think that is? Somehow I'm not convinced its the activism holding nuclear back.

spookie

Green Parties are such a farce for the most part. They serve other purposes, not aligned with what you really want or defend ;)

pjc50

Reminder that anti-nuclear activism started against nuclear weapons and nuclear dumping, and then after Chernobyl the realization that it was possible to mess up agriculture across a continent from the failure of a single plant. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-36112372

Greenpeace spent years campaigning against dumping waste at sea.

In a reasonably free market, which doesn't exist for electricity, solar would win handily.. but this is after decades of subsidized development and incremental improvement by Chinese wafer factories.

adventured

Replacement isn't remotely close to good enough. We need a massive increase in the supply of energy. Nuclear is the only viable path for that. We can do more than one thing at a time, we have the resources.

ViewTrick1002

This seems to be working backward from having decided that we must handout untold trillions to the comparatively insignificant nuclear industry.

In 2024 we, as in globally, completed about 5 GW of new built nuclear.

Let’s compare to renewables:

- 600 GW solar PV added [1]

- 117 GW wind power [2]

- ~100 GW battery storage

Even when adjusting for TWh the disparity is absolutely enormous. We’re talking a ~50x differences and it is only getting larger as renewables continue to scale.

But somehow the only technology which is ”scalable” is new built nuclear power.

[1]: https://www.solarpowereurope.org/press-releases/new-report-w...

[2]: https://www.gwec.net/gwec-news/wind-industry-installs-record...

bryanlarsen

Yes, we need a massive increase in the supply of energy. Solar is the only way we're going to get it. We're adding solar at a 1TW / year rate. We're adding nuclear at a rate of ~30 GW / year.

pjc50

State capacity is a real problem. Often struggling to do even one thing. There's many places where companies are ready to go on renewables but the grid approval isn't.

People overlook how long nuclear takes to build. Hinkley Point C is approaching a decade.

dhruv3006

Woooah! Times are changing.