The many ways tarrifs will hit your electronics
92 comments
·April 22, 2025JKCalhoun
sokoloff
Shipping is not tariffed, so I expect that hobby PCBs will still be affordable. ($2 PCBs becoming $5 is hardly a deal-breaker.)
Aliexpress I expect will adapt to end (or at least sharply curtail) free shipping promotions and start charging for shipping (which will not be tariffed), which better aligns what you’re actually paying for anyway.
So, getting 100 transistors for $1.02 and free shipping with $10 total might not be a thing any more, but $0.25 for those transistors and $0.75 for shipping with a $10 minimum might be (and is probably closer to the true economics than $1 and free shipping via airplane).
fabbari
Just to get the numbers right: [0] there is a $25 minimum, that becomes $50 June 1st, on all packages below or at $800.
So those $0.25 transistors - after June 1st - come at $50.25 plus shipping.
[0] https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-pr...
presto8
> Just to get the numbers right: [0] there is a $25 minimum, that becomes $50 June 1st, on all packages below or at $800.
Things are changing very quickly, so it's hard to keep up. But I believe this was revised on April 9th to $100 dollars a package from HK or PRC on May 2, and $200 a package starting June 1.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modi...
> (b) increase the per postal item containing goods duty in section 2(c)(ii) of Executive Order 14256, as modified by the Executive Order dated April 8, 2025, that is in effect on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on May 2, 2025, and before 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 1, 2025, from 75 dollars to 100 dollars; and
> (c) increase the per postal item containing goods duty in section 2(c)(ii) of Executive Order 14256, as modified by the Executive Order dated April 8, 2025, that is in effect on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 1, 2025, from 150 dollars to 200 dollars.
sokoloff
> Just to get the numbers right:
Yes, we should always strive to do that.
I haven’t gotten something from Aliexpress “sent through the international postal network” in a very long time (15 months or more and I think probably several years). Most everything I get comes from an Aliexpress-run line haul (which brokers the export and import customs clearance) and then is delivered by a local carrier (usually UniUni or another one they started calling themselves recently).
Sometimes they use Cainaio which uses USPS for last mile delivery, but based on the timings of tracking events, I think are still line-hauled and cleared by Cainaio as the broker rather than via the “international postal network”.
Both of those case would fall under the first of the sub-bullets ("will be subject to all applicable duties") rather than the second.
I agree the $50 would kill the current cheap [postal] shipping of PCBs, but I’m pretty sure JLCPCB, PCBWay, etc will all switch to line hauls as well (which might even end up being cheaper than DHL that I usually pick now).
It’s annoying, but I don’t think it marks the end of cheap hobby electronics parts; they just got a little less cheap.
alabastervlog
Check out the planned minimum per-item fees for low-value (sub-$800) shipments planned when de minimus is rescinded for China.
They're.... high.
mindslight
If clearing customs per-package is too expensive or inconvenient, I expect Aliexpress will tweak their managed logistics process to import items as bulk shipments in the cargo container at wholesale value and add estimated customs charges as a checkout fee on top of item prices. I don't think big print "free shipping" will be affected as it gets people to buy more often and it pads the margins when people buy more at one time.
They already had to make a much bigger adjustment when they stopped being able to dump packages onto USPS, and from my experience it improved the delivery times dramatically. That's the thing about this ham-fisted "tough on China" authoritarian kayfabe - China isn't just some monolithic entity just sitting on their hands, they're now the distributed innovators operating in a nimble fashion.
alabastervlog
Super bummed out about the glasses thing, too. So nice to have glasses that were cheap enough it wasn't that big a deal when a pair got destroyed for some reason, but also didn't look like shit.
wing-_-nuts
I've honestly never understood the point of the tariffs.
1. They're massively unpopular and likely to cause electoral losses in '26 and '28 which will immediately undo them
2. Consumers know the tariffs will likely cause a recession, and will likely be undone in 4y. Pretty much every major spending purchase that can be delayed, will.
3. Companies know 4y is not enough time to invest in new supply chains or new manufacturing plants. Given sinking demand they will shed jobs and hunker down for the duration.
I can tell you, for myself? Any major purchases are now off the table. I will happily keep my 18 year old car running instead of buying a new honda civic. I'm perfectly content with the devices I currently have. I will root and install a third party rom instead of buying a new phone. My 3090 will happily play old / AA games for the duration. Travel will likely be reduced thanks to the weak dollar and anti us sentiment in general.
davidw
People keep acting like there is some plan or higher thought process.
Sometimes, people are just morons.
Look at how Bessent had to sneak in and try and get the tariffs paused: https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-tariff-pause-navar...
There's no coordinated strategy there.
tzs
> I can tell you, for myself? Any major purchases are now off the table. I will happily keep my 18 year old car running instead of buying a new honda civic.
Aren't Civics made in the US, with mostly US and Canadian parts? They might come through the tariffs without too big a hit.
amelius
Sounds like a win for the climate, as a nice side effect.
wing-_-nuts
Yes well, covid was a nice win for the climate. It was also a massive and devastating recession which we basically money printed our way out of. It would be nice if we could address climate issues with direct legislation instead of suffering on the population level (I will be fine)
ajmurmann
Except that solar deployment in the US will be massively impacted by this. And that at a time where we are supposed to bring back energy-hungry manufacturing and in theory would need to expand the electrical grid.
ChoGGi
Good thing there's lots of coal-fired power plants that Trump just exempted from stronger emissions controls.
watwut
Unlikely. The other policies is literally designed to remove as much environmental protection as possible, I guess to own the libs.
Workaccount2
Trump wants to get rid of income taxes for those earning under $150k.
He most likely intends to pull out the financial pillar of income tax, and replace it with tariffs. He is likely waiting for the price crunch to blow up so he can step in an give everyone the "gift" of no income tax.
Isamu
He wants to get rid of his taxes, reducing other people’s taxes is part of the deal. Tariffs are moving taxes around, everyone pays but he’s hoping that he will be the least affected.
alabastervlog
Actually-rich people pay little or no income tax.
Most of what they pay is capital gains, and usually the long-term rate (15% or 20%, depends), which lower than all but the lowest two (0%, 12%) of seven brackets applied to people who actually work for a living.
Plus they don't pay FICA on that, which is another ~7.5% for W2 and ~15% for contract workers.
Also, they often manage to avoid even paying the long-term capital gains rate.
andsoitis
Income taxes are progressive while tariffs are regressive, so those under $150k are likely to be worse off.
Workaccount2
He's not particularly intelligent.
ty6853
On first glance that's the case, in practice they clamp down hardest on middle and professional classes. The rich borrow against gains or pay long term capital gains, or just "re-invest" (no profit) into durable assets for their business that hold value longer than they'll be alive.
The scam of income tax is that it's progressive on paper but not in practice.
SoftTalker
About 3/4 of households make under $150k/year. Having no income tax will be hugely popular with them. It would kill the argument that Trump is only interested tax breaks for the rich.
tzs
But he also says the tariffs will bring manufacturing back. If that works then the tariff money tanks.
SoftTalker
Yes, with Trunp everything is a lever he's using in a negotiation to get what he really wants. I'm not claiming he's playing "4d Chess" or is some kind of wizard but everything is a "deal" to him.
wing-_-nuts
>Trump wants to get rid of income taxes for those earning under $150k.
Getting rid of income tax will require legislation from congress. If we're in the midst of a tariff induced recession, what are the chances his party keeps congress in '26?
Also, remember when the British government tried to pass a massive tax cut funded with debt? Remember how that went down? The chances of the US being able to get rid of income tax in the next 4 years is basically zero.
alabastervlog
> Getting rid of income tax will require legislation from congress. If we're in the midst of a tariff induced recession, what are the chances his party keeps congress in '26?
Their chances will maybe be higher, if they cut income taxes.
All it'll cost is moving our already-nigh-inevitable debt crisis a few decades closer to today.
> Also, remember when the British government tried to pass a massive tax cut funded with debt?
Both Republican administrations this millennium have done exactly that. I see no reason to expect they won't do it again.
piva00
It would only make sense if consumption of tariff-imposed goods would keep steady to make up for the loss of income taxes, with consumer confidence cratering there's no way consumption keeps steady. On top of that you have inflation which will cause the Fed to raise interest rates, further lowering credit offering for consumption, bond yields raising which costs more of the budget for interest payment, requiring more taxes, it's a stupid plan all around...
llm_nerd
>Trump wants to get rid of income taxes for those earning under $150k.
Trump has openly talked about his plan to replace income tax with tariffs for years. Not just for "earnings under $150k" -- that was some post-facto inventions by Howard "Used Car Salesman" Lutnick on some news program appearance after tariffs were proving spectacularly unpopular -- but Trump has constantly ruminated on the grand old days of the 1890s, at least when he isn't talking about that ol' timey word "groceries" or showerheads, light bulbs and coal. And every economist save a few nuts like Pete Navarro (or his associate Ron Vara) have soundly announced that it's an incredibly stupid plan.
Here in reality, thus far the only tax break offered up has been an extension on tax reductions for the super rich. No tax free tips, overtime, etc. Only the super rich have benefitted.
Further, it economically makes zero sense and Trump has repeatedly argued completely contrary "wins" from his tariffs: both that all of the manufacturing and other production will return to the US (ignore that the US has effectively full employment, and such would be massively inflationary without a dire reduction in US quality of life), yet somehow he's going to make trillions from tariffs, which would require such an egregious tariff rate that there would be no imports at all and thus no tariff income. Federal spending would have to drop by almost 80% for tariff funding of the government to be remotely rational, and that means demolishing the military and social security.
>so he can step in an give everyone the "gift" of no income tax
Yeah, that isn't at all how Trump operates. Much like DOGE and their hilarious "$5000 cheques for all the savings" that will never, ever happen -- and quite the contrary the government financial position is more dire than ever -- Trump makes all of his promises up front. Like his tips and overtime tax claims, both of which are never going to happen. Or his amazing healthcare plan that's coming in two weeks. Or how about that line of countries offering everything and their 90 deals in 90 days. This guy is the definition of overpromising and underdelivering.
There is zero scenario where tariffs even cover the current deficit. And as Trump demolishes the credibility of the USD and US TBills (people don't realize that US banks have been increasingly forced to buy these as the global market as dissolved), it's going to get drastically worse.
alabastervlog
We're well on track to move the debt crisis we were already all-but guaranteed to see in a few decades, to... this decade.
542354234235
Take the nugget of truth that is the problem (there are inefficiencies in government work, there are arguments that tariffs could be adjusted for economic reasons) and act like the deliberate system breaking actions being taken aren’t the part worth discussing. Then blame immigrants, China, and “something something woke”. Then let “centerists” distract/water down the conversation by injecting random “both sides” arguments to frame things as nothing out of the ordinary and nothing to be done.
bloomingeek
You stumped most everyone when you used the word "reality". (Which is correct.) Most are so scared of where the country is heading, reality is pretty foggy. "Criminality", now there's a timely word we can all understand, except the big orange dummy has manipulated the supreme court so much we're not sure if we can trust it to maintain the rule of law. (After all, the tariffs seem to be a tool to crash the stock market, buy low/sell high, no?) Shamefully, it doesn't take much to completely fool the boomers (My generation, the stupidest of all time.) by making enemies of almost anything or anyone.
ks2048
Trump now has knobs he alone (unless congress stops him) can turn to save or wreck any country, even specific businesses and people (i.e. those that don’t surrender more power to him). For a power obsessed, extreme narcissist, that is worth more than economic success.
kashunstva
> I've honestly never understood the point of the tariffs
Nor, seemingly, does the U.S. president. It’s the same rhetoric we’ve heard from him since the mid 1980’s onward. “We’re being ripped off,” “We’re being laughed at,” “We need to fix the trade deficit…tariffs…” A case of arrested development. Going back to his earliest projects as a nominal real estate developer, the same inability or unwillingness to capitalize on the expertise of others to the detriment of most of his endeavours. Except for image-making. There he excels. This time, the project he is inevitably destroying is the global economy. And there’s no Fred C. Trump to bail us out.
diego_moita
> I've honestly never understood the point of the tariffs.
They are being implemented by people that think that "evolution is just a theory", "global warming is a hoax", "vaccines cause autism and are dangerous", etc.
Free trade is a core belief of Economics as a science, from Adam Smith's "Wealth of Nations" until the Nobel Prize of Economics in 2024. And discarding inconvenient science is a standard among Republicans (viz their attack on universities).
They're just morons.
bloomingeek
I think you're only half right. Most people are woefully undereducated or unwilling to gain knowledge for the sake of understanding things in the modern world. A fatal flaw, because then they rely on smart sounding people, dressed in nice clothing, to tell them how to think.
> I've honestly never understood the point of the tariffs.> At the risk of sounding rude, why the hell don't you understand the point of tariffs?!? Look up as many source as you can on the internet and learn something! You could also read some books.
energy123
These tariffs will have a deindustrializing effect for complex goods.
- Exemptions for electronics
- Unemployment at 4%, no labor to work in factories
- Raw inputs now 10%+ more expensive, meaning worse international competitiveness
- Policy uncertainty deterring investment
jameslk
> The estimates become highly dependent on how influential China is for final assembly.
The article mentions this but then doesn’t go much further into it. But this will likely be the biggest factor with tariffs.
China will still produce the electronics and many other goods, but then the goods will be shipped to another country for “substantial modifications” before being shipped to the US to evade the US tariffs on China
gramie
I checked the article just to see if the IEEE actually spelled "tariffs" wrong (they didn't).
jmclnx
I wonder if this will heat up the used market. In Oct Windows 10 will go EOL unless you start paying M/S. For windows 11 many people will need new hardware.
I wonder if M/S will pull back on their requirements. Of course people could move to Linux :)
andsoitis
> China could continue to produce smartphones for Europe, Asia, and Latin America.
And Africa. Asia and Africa are at the forefront of mobile money adoption.
mytailorisrich
Yes. Google says " in March 2025, the top five smartphone brands in Africa by market share were Samsung (29.86%), Apple (14.11%), Tecno (13.65%), Infinix (6.62%), and Huawei (6.29%) [Xiaomi and other smaller brands make up the remaining share] ".
So basically, Chinese brands have a 56% market share in Africa (1.5 billion people and probably the market with the most growth reserve).
spencerflem
I was trying to buy a laptop yesterday and the ones reviewed three months ago as "best laptop under $1000" are all $1500
cj
I tried using https://camelcamelcamel.com/ to find some examples of this, but no luck spotting obvious price increases.
Curious what brand you were looking at?
spencerflem
Maybe its just the two I was looking at, but the Dell G16 was on a best under $1k list and is $1600 on best buy, and my almost brand new Zephirus G14 that got killed by a spill (rest in peace) went from $1200 when i got it to $1700 on best buy as well.
Acer Nitro V kept its price at what the reviews said and that's what I ended up getting, but still weird that 2 of 3 changed
square_usual
yeah, I don't buy it either. I haven't seen any major price rises in the products I frequently check out. I'm assuming they're selling stock that's already in the US and don't have to pay tariffs on.
ajmurmann
I assume this is true as well and am at the same time surprised by it. I'd have increased prices or held on to inventory as soon as I know the tariff rate and I know when it's coming. Even if I bought a laptop for $750 and can now sell it for $1000 the prospect of the market price for it going up to $1,500 or even $2,000 and turning a much larger profit is quite enticing. Maybe prices being fairly stable is a sign of low confidence in the tariffs?
999900000999
I brought all my toys the moment these policies were announced.
Case in point. I don't *need* a new Surface , but I saw one for like 500$ off. I don't imagine being able to find one at a reasonable price during the next few years.
Really China is still playing softball here. They could just ban exports to the US tomorrow and we'll be the ones cut off from any moderately advanced technology.
polski-g
I'm in the market for a new laptop, a new TV, a new car, and a bunch of plywood and tools. I will be buying nothing until the tariffs are gone. No point in paying 10-250% tariffs when I can just wait Trump out.
amelius
How is that for European buyers?
ajmurmann
This touches on something I'm curious to see play out: How much shopping tourism will we see? If a laptop costs twice as much due to tariffs (as indicated by the forecast in the article) how many US consumers will wait with buying a new laptop or phone till they happen to be in another country? I'm also curious if we'll see a huge spike in smuggling which might give more justification for more spending on border security.
keyringlight
I'm interested to see how this affects Microsoft's messaging to some win10 users for "you need to buy a new PC to continue to be updated" while there's still a significant [0] amount of people to switch in 5-6 months.
[0] https://gs.statcounter.com/windows-version-market-share/desk...
zeroonetwothree
Obviously yes this will happen. Trade restrictions always results in more smuggling and black market activity.
c-fe
entry level macbook air (m4) is same price as it used to be (in luxembourg): 1 159,36 €
zorked
Same price or down slightly.
schnitzelstoat
I mean VAT here is significantly higher than the equivalent sales taxes in the US, so stuff is almost always more expensive.
jorge-d
You can get VAT refunded if you're only passing through [0]
[0]https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/consumers/shopping/vat...
piva00
In Sweden: have not noticed any big swing in prices, either up or down.
simonebrunozzi
typo in the title: tarrifs should be tariffs.
mindslight
Let's just call it what it is - a national sales tax. The only way significant bottom-up manufacturing ecosystems would come back to the US would be through targeted government investment, long term stability, and effective anti-trust enforcement - all things beyond the current administration. If three decades of economic neoliberalism was a steamroller crushing our industrial base, the Trumpist solution is to just throw it in reverse and destroy what domestic industry had managed to spring up in its wake.
I would have thought that despite the general comfort with hypocrisy of the larger Republican party, they would at least have reacted against overtly raising taxes especially to levels of hundreds of percent. But nope, use one synonym and whatever Dear Leader says goes. It's truly a cult.
matthewdgreen
The more ideological parts of the GOP (like the Heritage Institute) have been pushing for consumption taxes as a replacement for the income tax for more years than I can remember. At least since the 2000s. (Just Google the phrase and just about any year since 2003.) It’s always been a bad and regressive idea. With that said, Trump has loved tariffs since the 1980s and so any similarity between the two plans is more a marriage of convenience than any careful plan.
andsoitis
Tariffs are also fertile ground for corruption.
litoE
Tariffs motivate smuggling. Smugglers corrupt the government's tax authorities so they will look the other way. Consumers who buy the cheaper product know full well it's smuggled goods. Conclusion: tariffs corrupt all of society. I saw this first hand growing up in South America with tariffs on all imported goods.
energy123
Case in point: Apple's exemption
carlosjobim
How many American houses are built in China? How much American rice is grown in China? How much American lumber is chopped in China? How much American electricity is produced in China?
andsoitis
Since the tariffs target the whole world, my responses look at imports rather than constraining to China.
> How many American houses are built in China?
Roughly 30% of the softwood lumber consumed in the US is imported, and Canada accounts for over 80% of those imports. Other key suppliers include China, Brazil, and Mexico. And that’s just lumber.
The US now imports 1.5 million metric tons of rice. See trend:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/806643/us-rice-import-vo...
> How much American electricity is produced in China?
Generating and distributing electricity requires equipment. More expensive (or hard to acquire) equipment means more expensive energy, affecting just about everything.
alabastervlog
Also: some US electricity actually is produced in Canada. One option that seemed to be seriously considered early in this whole dust-up was Canada cutting off electricity supplied to the US. It would've caused chaos in the Northeast.
I think they only pulled back from doing that because it probably would have fairly-directly killed quite a few people.
carlosjobim
That begs the question why electricity is cheaper in many countries which have the highest tariffs in the world?
My original questions were of course rhetorical, shining a light on the matter that neither the US nor any country in the world lives only on imported goods.
Since the economy, trade, and production is completely interconnected in a modern, industrialized world, then any changes in policy will have widespread effects. Including good effects.
bloomingeek
Maybe your MAGA hat's brim is pulled down too low? There's a real, beautiful world out there if you're willing to see it. Knowledge is a good first step to beauty!
carlosjobim
You added nothing to the discussion. Your mental state is that you are a member of a mob who are out to squash anybody who thinks differently, and that gives you an illusion of having power. But in reality you don't know any of the people here, and the only power we have as commenters online is to exchange thoughts and ideas.
As for the real world, there is a large variety of tariff policies around the world, and most countries implement much harsher tariffs than what Mr Trump is suggesting for America. There are many very good arguments for tariffs and against tariffs, let's talk about them instead?
mindslight
The right question is how significantly those things rely on equipment and supplies produced in China, and the answer is all of them very much do.
null
thunderfork
Something important to consider re: comparisons to a "sales tax": a sales tax applies to every unit you sell, a tariff applies even to the units you don't sell.
This is a small distinction with some fun inflationary effects.
Yeah, my electronics hobbies are probably severely curtailed. I am assuming that the cancelling the de minimus exception is the real killer. I assume I can no longer afford PCBWay, AliExpress.
Recent purchases I am not likely to be able to afford: NVIDIA TESLA M40 cards from China I found on eBay and a "mining rig" mother board from AliExpress. (Was putting together a, formerly, inexpensive local-Llama rig.)
To be sure, these are things I don't need but they were on the cusp of affordability from the point of view of a hobbyist and so I indulged — and I will not now because they will now cross that threshold.
And I expect to see the price double on my Zenni glasses going forward. I used to like to find old medium-format cameras from Asian countries on eBay (probably not now). I already bailed on purchasing what would have been my first drone with what has happened to the prices on them.