Jürgen Schmidhuber – Can All-Purpose Robots Fuel a Comeback?
64 comments
·January 23, 2025leviliebvin
ChemSpider
I disagree. The main downside of moving to Germany - or any other EU country except Ireland - is the need to learn German (or French etc) if you want to fully participate in daily life. Other than that, the quality of life is better compared to USA. Example: EU Bluecard better than H1B and Greencard, health care, public safety, public transportation, walkable cities,... even now, I would recommend Berlin over San Fransciso - especially if you plan to start a family.
If there would be a magic pill that enabled anyone to learn a new language instantly, that would be the end of the US and UK as major immigration destinations.
leviliebvin
I know where you are coming from, but I want to point out that this is not the typical skilled immigrant experience.
I have met a couple of Americans with 10+YOE who have been imported to Germany with competitive salaries, like 150k€/year. They live in Berlin or Munich, are already partnered up, have a nice nest egg from their years working in the US, and just enjoy being expats on a little adventure.
This is not the typical skilled immigrant experience. If you start with 0YOE in Germany, it's much harder to go anywhere in life. And when you don't already have a well populated nest egg, you start getting anxious about your inability to accumulate savings. And a lot of jobs are unfortunately not in Berlin or Munich. A lot of these skilled immigrants end up in some 20,000 pop town, 1hr away from the nearest mid sized city. And then, if they come from non-western countries and they do not look European enough, that also adds something to the experience.
ChemSpider
Honest question: What major German company is in a 20,000 pop town in the middle of nowhere?
And if so, would that mean life in such a town is worse than in a comparable small town somewhere in the middle of the US?
Indeed, salaries are better in the US, especially AI jobs salaries.
But you also need less savings in the EU due to a much better social security system, e. g. free healthcare in case you get unemployed, free university (that alone saves you > 100K US$/kid),...
ofheadit
What do you mean with "not attractive destination"?
loa_in_
Even a failed project generates high profile jobs for the duration. Which still could be years. As I understand it, the government isn't lacking profit, just opportunities for people.
leviliebvin
The problem is there are no good long term prospects.
For example, you might get a job at a research institute or at government funded startup and gain experience working with cutting edge technologies. The pay is mid, but you don't care because you are gaining experience. Then your contract ends. The private sector cannot make use of your experience. So you have to pivot to programming CRUD webapps or you emigrate, or you get another public sector contract with the corresponding public sector salary.
portaouflop
General purpose robots don’t make sense - humans are infinitely better for this purpose and way cheaper to produce.
Sure the robots could do very dangerous or tedious work that would be “inhuman”, but I would argue that for this kind of work a specialised robot will always be more efficient and way cheaper to produce.
Apart from how science fiction this all is - we can’t even produce a general purpose robot don’t make that does the most basic things like walking or picking up objects in real life (outside of special test environments)
kmmlng
> humans are infinitely better for this purpose and way cheaper to produce.
Most of the western world is having demographic issues. We are having trouble getting people to reproduce in sufficient numbers to keep our societies going. This is an ugly trajectory to be on because you have an increasingly big group of old people who need to be supported by an increasingly small number of young people.
sega_sai
I am not an expert, but it is unclear to me. A specialized robot vs general purpose robot is a scale question. I.e. if the task is big enough(i.e there is need for millions of these robots) and there is enough money, than yes specialized robot is the answer. I think for small scale problem it becomes human vs vs general purpose robot. And there really it's capital investment (for robot) vs constant cashflow (for human). There will be some cost point where the human is better, but it really depends on the price.
null
rkwasny
Some people thought heavier-than-air flight is impossible.
hlynurd
>What many people don't know: The current boom in "Generative AI" using artificial neural networks has its roots in the early nineties at the Technical University of Munich, especially the "G" and the "P" and the "T" in "ChatGPT." At that time, we published "Artificial Curiosity" through what's now called "Generative Adversarial Networks" (1990, now widely used),
You_again with this_again
null
lnsru
There will be no all-purpose robots in Germany. Lilium and Volocopter stories (both VTOL aircraft startups who run out of money) show how innovation works in Germany. Getting early stage hardware startup funded in Germany is absolutely mission impossible. Where the company in US would be raising series B round… the same company in Germany would get 50000€ from couple angel investors for 30% shares. Another source of innovation might be some university. But these are too occupied with grant hunt and crazy science, that nothing practical may come out. These all rants, but also backed up by personal experience. Plus as other commenters mentioned - software development is just not a competency in Germany. And software eats the world.
kmmlng
It is true that Germany (and Europe as a whole) suffers from a less than ideal investment and innovation landscape. The companies you mentioned, however, worked on products that barely make any sense. It is clear that those kinds of companies will not (and should not) survive outside of 0% interest paradigms.
lnsru
I think, other countries would help these companies pivoting to defense/military applications. Munich in Germany is basically stuck during rush hour. Flying ambulance or cop car sounds good to me. And such application would be with high probability successful export product.
heisenberg1
The basic problem is obvious, no company in Germany would pay a fresh PhD more than 150k, even 100k would be extremely. So AI talent leaves. But this is not the whole story, the bureaucracy, regulation and so on are insane. Then you have high taxes, and especially everyone wants to tax the rich. The rich are too rich in Germany. So why should Germany try to make them richer lol?
lifestyleguru
This is like poor fighting each other with batons in the mud. The "German rich" fiscally are residents of Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, with some Dutch and Swiss plot twists. No rich has been bred from German fiscal reality in the recent decades.
PinguTS
SAP, Samwer brothers and many people related to Rocket Internet, Frank Thelen and his buddies, Philip (PIP) Klöckner, …
q.e.d.
heisenberg1
Wouldn't consider Frank Thelen rich in the sense it is relevant to AI. You need someone with billions and so on. SAP founders for sure. Anyway agree, Germany has quite a few rich people. Although most of them are a bit under the radar or doing virtue signaling. None of them is willing to take huge risks and invest few billions in a robotic company - just don't see it.
fileeditview
Or Dieter Schwarz, founder of Lidl
lifestyleguru
Samwer brothers without their parents would end up writing PHP in Bucarest. While I appreciate and enjoy Zalando, they'd never succeed as three guys coming to Germany from abroad and launching a business. Wirecard looked fishy in this regards... and indeed it was fishy. The secret sauce as a foreigner and someone not born with silver spoon is capital and resources of Russian intelligence.
ozy
Why do statistics like GDP in absolute numbers?
The only thing that graph shows is that China was dirt poor in 1995, and is now still only at 25-35% of USA levels.
logicchains
GDP per capita is a measure of a country's standard of living, raw GDP is a measure of a country's power relative to other countries.
anonymousDan
Wow, given his attitudes to unemployed immigrants I can't imagine he'll have much sympathy for the people whose jobs the robots will replace. Nonetheless good article, I think he is right that it is an opportunity for Germany.
ReptileMan
The good thing about general purpose robots is that solves the aging population issue without having to resort to migration.
PinguTS
It's said easy. A look to Japan may help. Japan is one of the oldest societies in the developed world. Japan neglects immigration and has strict rules. Does it help the society?
That said, Japan has very different work culture than all other developed nations. But still.
Hrenagf
The "elites" (people like 360° turn Baerbock) want more immigrants under any circumstances. They are like Russian nobility back in the day where they think their own population are peasants while speaking French to distinguish themselves.
lifestyleguru
Europe is back into its historical power dynamics, e.g. Catherine II was Prussian and also the Russian emperor. National states in Central and Eastern Europe were an anomaly lasting 80 years. Once US accepted the return of ruling dynasties, Europe has no other choice than to follow. People will quarrel over any scraps and ideologies the elites throw at them. Nothing will stop the gravitation of German industry towards Russian resources.
tho234j2344234
Sounds an awful lot like India's elite (who ask the non-English speaking "peasants" why they can't rise up with all the English-only universities and schools).
piyuv
“Good thing”? Some people would rather invest (waste) trillions of euros and decades of research rather than accepting all humans are equal.
SMH
ReptileMan
When the cultures and worldviews are too different the integration hassles are not worth it.
lifestyleguru
The problem is not the general population and voters somehow feeling superior than others. The problem are the oligarchs and owners needing very badly "the worse" to be present ideologically and physically.
yuboyt
"huge opportunity in German mechanical engineering". Ha. He should compare a modern German car, with their 2-3 year warranty, to a modern chinese car such as BYD, with their 8 year warranty.
kleiba
Funny that you picked BYD of all manufacturers: https://insideevs.com/news/712148/byd-quality-problems-hit-i...
defrost
Year old (March 2024) article about small numbers of paint scratch, storage mold, and other minor issues in a large number of deliveries from a rapidly expand manufacturer concludes:
But it’s too early to gauge if these quality problems are false alarms or something BYD needs to take very seriously.
a-french-anon
Kia is famous for their warranty AND the Kia Boys thing. The most reliable Japanese brands (Toyota, Honda, Mazda, I'd say) only offer 3 years here. Warranty seems to be a marketing thing, in the automobile world.
lnsru
I was in to buying Kia ev6, but canceled order after waiting 1.5 years. And it’s good thing. Because this warranty is tied to regular visits for inspection at Kia dealership. Since there is nothing to service in electric vehicle Kia will scam you with weird expensive coolant replacements and other very expensive not needed replacements.
kleiba
The right-wing narrative scattered throughout this article is irritating.
It's also a bit laughable that Germany could stand a realistic chance to top the world's intelligent robot production - as long as we're talking about general-purpose and hence likely humanoid robots. As far as I'm aware, Germany has no history in building such robots while companies from other countries, both Asian and US, have a big head-start.
This article reads more like a more or less desperate sounding attempt to somehow save Germany's former manufacturing glory in the 21st century. Alas, without first class AI software, this isn't going to happen, and in that respect, Germany is more or less irrelevant.
His description of how German politicians have time and again failed to recognize realities and act accordingly seems spot-on, however.
mertbio
> Germany has no history in building such robots
Germany was leading in the industrial robots with KUKA until they sold the company to China: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KUKA
PinguTS
Germany had many industrial robotics companies. Not only KUKA, like Japan has.
The idea behind selling KUKA is, the very same narrative like in any startup. The robot itself has become a commodity. It was clear, that China will be cheaper in production of this commodity in the long term. The know-how is not in the production of such robots. The idea was to pivot more into integration. But that is very capital intensive. As big company you are limited in the possibilities to raise money. An alternative is to have a bigger company with big pockets to cooperate with or even selling the business and stay somehow as an independent business unit. I have seen this with small companies who needed to raise money. I have seen this with big companies.
BTW, one of the people involved in pivoting was one who in the 1980/1990 made the automation for the KUKA robots as a small engineering office. About a fews years late he got bought by KUKA when they discovered that this small engineering office had the whole knowledge and there was almost no knowledge within KUKA.
kleiba
Yes, and I was specifically referring to general-purpose, humanoid robots.
mertbio
The issue in Germany is that most companies don't take software seriously. They often outsource their software to freelancers or establish offshore offices in EU countries that pay less for software engineers compared to Germany or simply hire agencies. For instance, consider Volkswagen’s struggles with its EV transition. Despite this, they ultimately decided to invest in Rivian to leverage their software.
To create all-purpose robots, we must prioritize both mechanical expertise and software development. However, this mindset problem exists at the top level of management, where senior executives fail to recognize the significance of software, despite the presence of highly skilled software engineers in the country.
Notably, SAP stands out as the only German company that takes software seriously, and it holds the distinction as the largest public company in Germany.
ofheadit
I would throw https://www.ableton.com/ into the ring, too. It's small, but absolute on par quality.
ahartmetz
Yup, they are good. Personal experience. They are also not the only ones.
light_hue_1
That's true of the entire EU. No one cares about software. Just look at the immense salary gap with the US or Canada.
Gravityloss
The EU is not homogenic. Some places have excellent software industry. Some software people from Spain like to work in Finland. Pay is better, though not as high as in Silicon Valley. I don't know how well software jobs pay in the rust belt in USA.
lifestyleguru
German software is SAP. Every other software from them is made in Poland, Romania, Belarus, and Russia.
xenonite
No, SAP is German software. And there are many other software companies in Germany, albeit with much less publicity.
hobofan
Half of German software is SAP-infected due to that fact that if you are targeting German companies you have to interface with SAP sooner or later, and every option I've encountered to do that in the past was awful.
woadwarrior01
IMO, it's a culture thing. Even German software companies think writing software is low-status and try to outsource as much of it as possible to Eastern Europe.
ahartmetz
Not all of them. I'd have more trouble finding work if it was true. By the way, IME Eastern Europe is the best outsourcing destination if you want good quality for somewhat less money. There are not so good companies as well, but the only good "outsourcing code" I have seen was from there.
I think it's really mostly mechanical engineering companies that undervalue software. My main client is one, they actually do value software so it's a decent environment. Unfortunately still rare.
the_duke
Eastern European developers are pretty awesome, in my experience.
Otherwise I agree.
aaron695
[dead]
I think he makes a good point about immigration. Immigration is not going to save Germany, because Germany is not an attractive destination. The only people who move to Germany are the ones who failed to get a VISA from an English speaking country, and even those will leave as soon as they gain enough experience to reapply for a VISA. The only way forward is for Germany to really invest in its own population and to retain them by giving them attractive enough opportunities.
But how do you accomplish this? Where do you get the money from? Nobody wants to invest in Germany, not even the Germans themselves. So the government tries to jump start investment, but the government is both incompetent and corrupt, so for example the German government bet on Quantum Computing instead of AI. Now the government in investing in AI, but instead of investing in LLMs they are investing in "AI for science" projects, 99% of which are complete deadends. Actually this is a sort of theme. The government funded startups are always doing some sort of "science" based product. For some reason this appeals to the founding agencies because science sounds like a solid investment. But most of these startups are either attacking a problem that is way too improbably of yielding any results, or they are projects that sound good to the uninitiated but are actually fundamentally flawed when you actually dig deep into them (like a lot of AI for science crap).
I think, if there is a way forward, it's for the government to stop trying to be a startup accelerator. They are too incompetent and corrupt for that. Instead, it should be a mediator between foreign investors and local talent. Make it attractive to build in Germany and use local talent to do that. And make sure the local talent gets competitively compensated so they do not emigrate.