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Starship Flight 7

Starship Flight 7

771 comments

·January 16, 2025

terramex

dpifke

Preliminary indication is that we had an oxygen/fuel leak in the cavity above the ship engine firewall that was large enough to build pressure in excess of the vent capacity.

Apart from obviously double-checking for leaks, we will add fire suppression to that volume and probably increase vent area. Nothing so far suggests pushing next launch past next month.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1880060983734858130

perihelions

Reminds me of one of NASA's reckless ideas, abandoned after Challenger in 1986, to put a liquid hydrogen stage inside the cargo bay of the Shuttle orbiter [0]. That would have likely leaked inside that confined volume, and could plausibly have exploded in a similar way as Starship.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuttle-Centaur

- "The astronauts considered the Shuttle-Centaur missions to be riskiest Space Shuttle missions yet,[85] referring to Centaur as the "Death Star".[86]"

raverbashing

I'm not sure there's fire suppression effective enough for this type of leak (especially given rocket constraints)

echelon

Replying to this comment so people can see the incredible video of the breakup taken from a diverting aircraft:

https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1i34dki/starship_...

psunavy03

Aerospace fire suppression is generally Halon, which would purge the cavity with inert gas.

m4rtink

Actually the Super Heavy (first stage) already uses heavy CO2 based fire suppression. Hopefully not that necessary in the long term, but should make it possible to get on with the testing in the short term.

metalman

just increased venting to keep any vapor concentrations of fuel and oxidiser below that capable of igniting, even simple baffling could suffice as the leaks may be trasitory and flowing out of blowoff valves, so possibly a known risk. Space x is also forgoeing much of the full system vibriatory tests, done on traditiinal 1 shot launches, and failure in presurised systems due to unknown resonance is common. Big question is did it just blow up, or did the automated abort, take it out, likely the latter or there would be a hold on the next launch.

spandrew

It might not even be about fire suppression. Oxygen and different gases can pool oddly in different types of gravity. If oxygen was leaking, it may be as simple as making sure a vacuum de-gases a chamber before going full throttle.

We know nothing, but the test having good data on what went wrong is a great starting point.

varjag

If you can displace the oxidizer/air remaining in the volume why not.

anentropic

I wonder if it's related to the loose panel flapping about at the left of the screen here: https://youtu.be/qzWMEegqbLs?si=aUlI6zfkH3bZCmVm&t=111

Alive-in-2025

This sounds like one of those "and also" things. I'd say you add fire suppression AND ALSO try more to reduce leaks. It's got to be really difficult to build huge massive tanks that hold oxygen and other gases under pressure (liquid methane too will have some vapor of course). Are leaks inherently going to happen?

This is meant to be a human rated ship of course, how will you reduce this danger? I know this stuff is hard, but you can't just iterate and say starship 57 has had 3 flights without leaks, we got it now. Since I have no expertise here, I can imagine all kinds of unlikely workarounds like holding the gas under lower pressure with humans on board or something to reduce the risk.

wat10000

This might be one of those components where it just needs to be built without problems, and improved safety means fixing individual design and manufacturing flaws as you find them, until you’ve hopefully got them all.

This can work. Fundamental structural components of airliners just can’t fail without killing everyone, and high reliability is achieved with careful design, manufacturing, testing, and inspection. I’m not sure if a gigantic non-leaky tank is harder to pull off that way, but they might have to regardless.

We’re going to have to accept that space travel is going to be inherently dangerous for the foreseeable future. Starship is in a good position to improve this, because it should fly frequently (more opportunities to discover and fix problems) and the non-manned variant is very similar to the manned variant (you can discover many problems without killing people). But there are inherent limitations. There’s just not as much capacity for redundancy. The engines have to be clustered so fratricide or common failure modes are going to me more likely. Losing all the engines is guaranteed death on Starship, versus a good chance to survive in an airliner.

All other practical considerations aside, I think this alone sinks any possibility of using Starship for Earth-to-Earth travel as has been proposed by SpaceX.

mavhc

Given that a) most human rated rockets have had 0 flights before use, and b) I'd expect each starship to have at least 10 flights, and at least 100 in total without mishap before launching, the statistics should be good

WalterBright

Lindbergh's Spirit of St Louis had the main fuel tank directly in front of him. This was in spite of his primal fear of being burned alive. In some airplanes you sit on the fuel tank.

api

Would be unpleasant if there was crew. Of course this thing is pretty far from human eating.

onion2k

Would be unpleasant if there was crew.

19 people have died in the 391 crewed space missions humans have done so far. The risk of dying is very high. Starship is unlikely to change that, although the commoditization of space flight could have reduce the risk simply by making problems easier to spot because there's more flights.

coldtea

[flagged]

pmontra

Test flights.

My tests keep failing until I fix all of my code, then we deploy to production. If code fails in production than that's a problem.

We could say that rockets are not code. A test run of a Spaceship surely cost much more than a test run of any software on my laptop but tests are still tests. They are very likely to fail and there are things to learn from their failures.

14

Even NASA years into their existence has suffered catastrophic fatal failures. Even with the best and most knowledgeable experts working on it we are ultimately still in the infancy of space flight. Just like airlines every incident we try and understand the cause and prevent it from happening again. Lastly what they are doing is incredibly difficult with probably thousands of things that could go wrong. I think they are doing an amazing job and hope one day, even if I miss it, that space flight becomes acceptable to all who wish to go to space.

Cipater

He just means MORE checking for leaks.

They already implemented a whole host of changes to the vehicles after the first test back in 2023. There's a list of corrective actions here.

https://imgur.com/a/Y9dd43o

razemio

Can you name a space company with less failures? Also I think it is unfair to even compare SpaceX to anything else, because of the insane amount of starts / tests combined unparalleled creativity.

According to this website their current success rate is 99,18%. That's a good number I guess? Considering other companies did not even land their stages for years.

https://spaceinsider.tech/2024/07/31/ula-vs-spacex/#:~:text=....

askl

It's just taxpayer money they're blowing up, so it doesn't really matter.

fsloth

It sounds like he's talking to investors and not to general public.

In my experience in corporate america you communicate efficiency by proclaiming a checklist of things to do - plausible, but not necessarily accurate things - and then let engineers figure it out.

Nobody cares of the original checklist as long as the problem gets resolved. It's weird but it seems very hard to utter statement "I don't have specific answers but we have very capable engineers, I'm sure they will figure it out". It's always better to say (from the top of your head) "To resolve A, we will do X,Y and Z!". Then when A get's resolved, everyone praises the effort. Then when they query what actually was done it's "well we found out in fact what were amiss were I, J K".

throw0101a

> (as seen from ground)

As seen from a plane in the air with the break up right in front of it:

https://old.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1i34dki/starship_...

mrandish

While the video post does mention "Right in front of us", and it may have appeared that way to the pilots, it wasn't. Gauging relative distance and altitude between aircraft in flight can be notoriously deceptive even to experts, especially in the case of intensely bright, massive, unfamiliar objects at very high speed and great distance.

The RUD was in orbit over 146 kilometers up and >13,000 mph. I'm sure using the FlightAware tracking data someone will work out the actual distance and altitude delta between that plane and the Starship 7 orbital debris. I suspect it was many dozens of miles away and probably still nearly orbital in altitude (~100km).

Spectacular light show though...

aredox

Stupid comment. Several flights had to be diverted because of the break-up, and anyone in flight at that time would be rightly concerned about barely-visible high-speed shrapnel showering a much larger area than where the visible debris are - especially when you are responsible for keeping your hundreds of passengers safe in a very unexpected situation with no rehearsed procedure to follow.

kryptn

It's in front of them enough.

muteh

To be clear, you’re claiming that this was in fact behind them?

varjag

Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion

gcanyon

I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate.

IAmGraydon

That is absolutely insane. Honestly, I would probably assume a MIRV given the current environment.

Cu3PO42

What a strangely beautiful sight. While I was excited to see ship land, I'm also happy I get to see videos of this!

mrandish

Yes, both spectacular and beautiful. I guess Starship can now say what the legendary comedy actress (and sex symbol) of early cinema Mae West said:

"When I'm good... I'm very good. But when I'm bad... I'm even better." :-)

Combined with another tower catch, that's two spectacular shows for the price of one. Hopefully the onboard diagnostic telemetry immediately prior to the RUD is enough to identify the root cause so it can be corrected.

Molitor5901

I felt.. bad watching that breakup, it reminded me of Columbia.

dpifke

Which coincidentally launched 22 years ago today: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-107

inglor_cz

OTOH I remembered Columbia too and I felt good knowing that Starship is being tested thoroughly without jeopardizing the crew.

The space-shuttle could not fly to the orbit automatically. It had to have people on board, and the first flight, IIRC, came close to a disaster.

birdman3131

I remember being woken up by the thunder from Columbia.

Lost it over the years but I used to have a photo of about 20 vans of people parked on our property doing the search for debris. Don't think they found any on our land but there was a 3 ft chunk about 5 miles down the road.

xattt

I don’t know why you’re getting downvoted, but I thought this too.

afavour

As long as the debris has no effect wherever it lands, I agree with you

verzali

A lot of flights seem to be diverting to avoid it...

https://bsky.app/profile/flightradar24.com/post/3lfvhpgmqqc2...

dylan604

More as long as there were no humans onboard

ijidak

Looks like something out of a sci-fi movie.

mrandish

The number of SpaceX video clips that I know are "actual things really happening" which still activate the involuntary "Sci-Fi / CGI effect" neurons in my brain is remarkable.

TMWNN

>What a strangely beautiful sight.

"My god, Bones, what have I done?"

badgersnake

It’s a pretty expensive way to make fireworks.

dotancohen

Excitement guaranteed

olex

Inadvertently perfect timing for this footage. Glowing and backlit by the setting sun, against clear and already darkening evening sky... couldn't plan the shot any better if you tried.

Let's hope no debris came down on anyone or anything apart from open water.

andrewinardeer

I take it if SpaceX debris hit and destroyed a boat the owner can claim damages from SpaceX?

Does international space law allow for this?

ceejayoz

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Liability_Convention

Only used once, when the Soviets dropped a nuclear reactor on Canada.

> States (countries) bear international responsibility for all space objects that are launched within their territory. This means that regardless of who launches the space object, if it was launched from State A's territory, or from State A's facility, or if State A caused the launch to happen, then State A is fully liable for damages that result from that space object.

somenameforme

Most things put into space are designed to burn upon uncontrolled descent through orbit. And then the overwhelming majority of Earth is water and even on land the overwhelming majority of land is either completely uninhabited or sparsely inhabited. And then even if against all odds somehow something doesn't burn up in the atmosphere, and somehow lands in a densely populated area - the odds of hitting a spot with somebody or something relevant on it is still quite low. The overall odds of actually hitting somewhere really bad are just astronomically low.

Nonetheless, recently NASA won the lottery when part of some batteries they jettisoned from the ISS ended up crashing through a house in Florida. [1] Oddly enough there are treaties on this, but only from an international perspective - landing on your own country was not covered! But I'm certain NASA will obviously make it right, as would SpaceX. If they didn't, then surely the family could easily sue as well.

[1] - https://www.space.com/space-debris-florida-family-nasa-lawsu...

HPsquared

It's probably similar to if a US ship crashed into your yacht.

delichon

Musk said that part of the launch licensing was a requirement to estimate the potential damage to whales in the ocean. He said that the odds turned out to be so low that in his opinion if a whale gets hit it had it coming.

https://jabberwocking.com/did-elon-musk-really-have-to-study...

9cb14c1ec0

Given that the engine telemetry shown on the broadcast showed the engines going out one by one over a period of some seconds, I could easily imagine some sort of catastrophic failure on a single engine that cascaded.

s1artibartfast

It could be many things, plumbing to the engines, tank leak, ect. You could see fire on the control flap actuators, so the ship interior was engulfed in fire at the same time the first engine was out.

consumer451

Given the huge spread of the debris, it must have been a decent sized boom, no? I mean that's got to be 10's of miles wide in this video.

https://x.com/adavenport354/status/1880026262254809115

jiggawatts

I noticed that the CH4 tank level was much lower than the O2 tank level. That suggests a leak.

m4rtink

Yeah, most likely engine bay fire taking out systems one by one. Would be interesting to compare the telemetry cutoff with the video of explosion if possible. That could indicate if the fire even triggered an explosion, flight termination being activated or just reentry heating making the tanks explode.

idlewords

There's a flickering flame briefly visible on the flap hinge of the second stage in the last footage it sent down.

s1artibartfast

Most Sci-Fi real footage I have ever seen.

Edit: Reminds me of "The Eye" from star wars Andor

https://youtu.be/9lrr0CWHDGA?t=43

JumpCrisscross

Wow. It reminds me of the comet scene from Andor. I wonder if suborbital pyrotechnics will become a thing one day.

ralusek

> one day

today!

dylan604

Watching those videos, my hand naturally looks for the roller ball from too much time playing missile command

charles_f

That "landing" (is it still considered a landing if it's chopsticked a few meters before it touches the ground?) is so unnatural it almost looks fake. So big and unimaginable that it feels like watching fx on a movie!

The close-up camera right after was interesting, I thought it captured on the grid fins, but it looks like there are two small purpose-built knobs for that.

The times we live in!

yreg

You have perfectly described the feeling I had regarding the first belly flop demo (at least I think it was the first one?)

https://youtu.be/gA6ppby3JC8?si=wY7TQsbR_wxoud75&t=70 (ten seconds from the timestamp)

sneak

Yeah, that shot is so clean and smooth it feels like a render. Absolutely iconic even after a dozen rewatchings. The iris flares and the framerate… gotta hand it to whoever planned that shot and placed that camera. A+ videography.

Cthulhu_

As another commenter pointed out, it's down to better cameras; higher resolution and framerates than "traditional" cameras used in this kind of recording. But it could be better still, the camera setup in the clip still gets a lot of shaking from the blasts.

IIRC they use regular off the shelf gopro cameras to mount on the ones going into space. Granted, the mount is ruggedized metal else the cameras wouldn't survive, lol [0].

I'm also reminded of NASA's cameras which were mounted on the mechanisms of an anti-air gun, great for slow and precise movements. I'm sure they still use that today but I couldn't find a good source. I did find an article about NASA's ruggedized cameras for use on spacecraft and the like though [1].

[0] https://www.quora.com/Was-the-GoPro-camera-modified-for-the-... [1] https://spinoff.nasa.gov/Redefining_the_Rugged_Video_Camera

dzhiurgis

It the high dynamic range (HDR) that makes it look "unnatural" because we are so used to seeing over-compressed photos and videos.

Plus maybe something they do with stability and frame-rate.

keepamovin

If cutting edge engineering with conventional physics looks fake to you folks imagine what a hard time you’re going to have with real videos of actual UFOs.

elicksaur

They’re being rhetorical for emphasis. No need to twist it into an ad hominem.

yreg

I don't believe your ability of classifying videos as real or fake to be any greater than mine. Maybe you just have more confidence?

ortusdux

IIRC, the grid fins are not strong enough to support the rocket, and reinforcing them would add too much weight to the vehicle.

The plan is to catch the second stage the same way, and the starship in flight now is the first to have mockup pins to test the aerodynamics and see if they cause issues during reentry.

sfblah

It seems like they'll need a lot of different vehicles to catch the second stage given the number of pieces I saw in the video.

charles_f

I was surprised they were landing them on those fins, makes more sense now.

noneeeed

I found the same when the first Falcon Heavy executed the simultaneous booster landing. Watching them both come down, within moments of each other at neighbouring pads was incredibly cool.

Its sad that Gerry Anderson never got to see this. It's like something from a Thunderbirds episode.

gazchop

I heard someone say it's like trying to land the Statue of Liberty. Turns out the statue is actually shorter.

adolph

Since I’ve never seen an f9 landing, watching ift5 land was kinda mind blowing. Even 6k away you can tell it’s really big but moved with a grace and smoothness like a hippo in water only with crackling flame.

0_____0

You can hear some sounds in the stream that I think are one of the presenters weeping during the launch and landing sequences. I think I would be similarly awe struck to witness such a thing

levocardia

The clearance is amazing -- probably bigger IRL than it looked on the camera, but it looked like only a foot or two between the chopsticks arm and the top of the rocket! The control algorithms on the gimballed engines must be insanely precise.

EncomLab

First Shuttle orbited astronauts and successfully recovered all intended components. Every Saturn 5 was successful, the 3rd flight sent a crew to lunar orbit, and the 6th put a crew on the moon.

To date a Starship has yet to be recovered after flight - and those launched are effectively boilerplate as they have carried no cargo (other than a banana) and have none of the systems in place to support a crew.

Some people are really fetishizing iterative failure - but just because you are wandering in the desert does not mean there is a promised land.

fernandotakai

>Some people are really fetishizing iterative failure - but just because you are wandering in the desert does not mean there is a promised land.

i guess you didn't follow the falcon 9 failures right? here's two minutes of failures https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvim4rsNHkQ

and guess what? they finally got it right and now falcon 9 is not only extremely reliable but quite cheap for everyone.

NASA (with the shuttle and saturn V) had a completely different idea on rocket development (and blue origin seems to follow their mindset), which is fine. but to say that this is "failure fetish" when spacex has an amazing track record is just hating for the sake of hating.

i would recommend, if you have the time, the book liftoff, by eric berger https://www.amazon.com/Liftoff-Desperate-Early-Launched-Spac... -- it was the book that opened my eyes to why spacex works like they do.

computerex

SpaceX’s track record is too fetishized by the Musk fanboys. Falcon 9 has some weird Demi god status even though the launch vehicle is no different than the competitor like Soyuz.

blendergeek

Part of why it has "weird Demi god status" is that it is not only so reliable but also so cheap. Soyuz is not reusable. Falcon 9 is. That is why Falcon 9 is so celebrated. No other rocket company or state-sponsored space agency comes close to its track record of cheap, reliable, reusable rockets.

pieix

I might have missed it, but I’ve never seen a Soyuz booster fly twice, let alone 25 times.

TrapLord_Rhodo

Soyuz? an expendable rocket with 40% less payload capacity? How is that a competitor to falcon 9? More like a competitor to rocketlab's current generation.

marknutter

It's been so weird to see people say willfully ignorant shit just because they don't like Elon Musk.

inglor_cz

"though the launch vehicle is no different than the competitor like Soyuz"

That is ... so obviously and blatantly untrue. That is like saying that an old wooden biplane from 1917 is not different from Boeing 777.

snakeyjake

>Every Saturn 5 was successful

>Some people are really fetishizing iterative failure

Subassemblies that made up Saturn V went through several hundred (inflation adjusted) billion dollars' worth of iterative failure before the Apollo program was announced.

The only reason it WAS announced was all of the iterative failure that had been paying off.

The day JFK uttered "shall go to the moon in this deck-aid", the F-1 engine had already been exploding and failing for three years.

My memory is hazy, from a brown bag I went to at work 15 years ago, but they blew up around 50 F-1s before one worked right.

And while the Saturn isn't an upgraded Jupiter it is EXTREMELY closely related to Jupiter and Jupiter had a shit-ton of failures before they got it right, turned around, and used all of that knowledge to build Saturn.

jve

Apollo WAS an impressive achievement

Starship IS an impressive achievement while they speed up development process with real-world hard data

New Glenn IS an impressive achievement while taking their time to develop a vehicle that reached the orbit on first time

Per wiki on Apollo

> Landing humans on the Moon by the end of 1969 required the most sudden burst of technological creativity, and the largest commitment of resources ($25 billion; $182 billion in 2023 US dollars)[22] ever made by any nation in peacetime. At its peak, the Apollo program employed 400,000 people and required the support of over 20,000 industrial firms and universities.[23]

Different budget, different number of people working on this stuff and different mindset. Actually the Apollo program was also iterative and it paid off.

tsimionescu

The Apollo program was inventing all of this technology, and using only extremely rudimentary computers, still doing many calculations with slide rulers.

SpaceX has all of the Apollo program's work to build on, and computers that could do all the computing work that the Apollo program ever made, in total, in probably a few minutes.

throw5959

SpaceX is inventing quite a lot, there's more areas where they started greenfield than where they got help.

me_me_me

this doesn't even scratch the surface. Slow motion cameras and real time sensors for debugging hardware issues, computer simulations, 3d printing.

Apollo program directors would advocate to start a nuclear war with ussr if they could get hands on that kind of tech.

But also NASA landed two SUVs on mars first try, using skycrane, Full remote. they developed and built mars helicopter/drone (rip). First try. But spaceX gets the glory because... break things??

bradgessler

> Every Saturn 5 was successful

Do you not count the Saturn 1B rocket capsule that caught on fire on the pad and burnt the Apollo 1 astronauts alive?

What about Apollo 13?

> but just because you are wandering in the desert does not mean there is a promised land

The "promise land" in this analogy is visible past the desert. What's not known is what route to get there.

In your tortured analogy, the people who "are really fetishizing iterative failure" are not doing that; they're fetishizing the fact that the person walking through this desert is trying, and if they hit a barrier, they iterate and try again until they reach the promise land. Along the way they are accomplishing what was once thought to be impossible.

EncomLab

The command module fire had zero to do with the Saturn V. Apollo 13 again was the command and service module, and in that case the crew was "returned safely to the Earth".

philipwhiuk

Congratulations for neatly excluding Apollo 1, Columbia and Challenger's crews, may their memories rest heavy on your conscience.

Your supposed excellent programs killed people.

wolf550e

NASA put people on the first flight of the shuttle to space, which turned out after the fact to have 1 in 12 chance of killing the crew. Can't do that in 2025.

https://x.com/eager_space/status/1879291376418120184

nicky0

> To date, no Starship has been recovered after flight.

This is irrelevant, as none of the flights included any plans to recover the Starship. The objective for each flight has been to dump the vehicle in the sea at the target zone.

jiggawatts

As others have pointed out: Compare the budgets.

That “first success” was actually on the back of a long series of related rockets with technology and engines inherited from a huge missile program. Those NASA eggheads didn’t start from zero on a shoestring budget and make things work on the first try! The Saturn V was just a stretched version of the Saturn series of rockets. These all cost hundreds of billions in today’s money to develop!

Second, they’re not “the same thing”. A single-use piece of technology has very different design constraints and engineering considerations as a reusable piece of technology.

A single-use weapon is a bomb. A reusable weapon is a sword. Just because you can shove a fuse into some explosives doesn’t mean you can forge a sword that won’t shatter on first use.

An equivalent example from space technology are explosive bolts. NASA uses them extensively, SpaceX never does… because they’re not reusable and not up-front testable. They’re expensive too. So instead they iterated (and iterated!) on vacuum-rated actuators that can serve the same role. This is a non-trivial exercise that resulted in a few RUDs. This is why NASA didn’t even try! It’s harder and not needed if reusability was a non-goal.

modeless

Oh no they lost the ship after the booster landed! Seems like they lost an engine, then I saw fire around the rear flap hinges in the last images before they cut out, and then the telemetry showed more engines shutting down until it froze.

During ascent I also noticed a panel near the front fins that seemed to be loose and flapping. Probably not related but who knows.

Edit: Here's a video of the aftermath. Strangely beautiful. https://x.com/deankolson87/status/1880026759133032662

londons_explore

> fire around the rear flap hinges

I believe it's pretty hard to have a fire at that altitude. You need a leak of both methane and oxygen, and an ignition source.

I wonder if perhaps one of the engines split open and the exhaust wasn't going into the engine bell?

pixl97

I mean blowing liquid oxygen on something with a hot heat source beside it typically turns things to fuel you wouldn't expect. Like metal.

modeless

Good point, must have been an O2 leak oxidizing random stuff.

londons_explore

At atmospheric pressure, yes.

But up at 140km altitude, the pressure is so low that I don't think even pure oxygen would lead to combustion.

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inglor_cz

What a celestial bonfire. It indeed has a haunting beauty.

smusamashah

View of previous catch (flight 5) from a very distant vantage point was even more incredible for me. You can see the scale of things right there

https://x.com/shaunmmaguire/status/1845444890764644694

https://youtu.be/Vzyaud250Xo

https://youtu.be/ntmssdzp_qY

Anyone has similar view of this landing?

Edit: distant view of flight 7 by the same person

https://x.com/shaunmmaguire/status/1880044690428645684

null

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kristianp

This is version 2 of Starship, with some upgrades, such as longer starship.

"Upgrades include a redesigned upper-stage propulsion system that can carry 25 per cent more propellant, along with slimmer, repositioned forward flaps to reduce exposure to heat during re-entry.

For the first time, Starship will deploy 10 Starlink simulators" [1].

https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/01/heres-what-nasa-would-...

[1] https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/musks-starship-ready-...

kristianp

I found an article from earlier in the week about the changes for this version of the upper stage: https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/01/a-taller-heavier-smart...

ruivil7

Back a few years ago. This was the starship that in 2024 would reach Mars with humans, with so much space taken by crew and materials, and almost no fuel, and "10 times cheaper". And currently is an empty shell. Nice fireworks and show, but no meaningful payload yet. Not even LO. And this will be ready for 2026 artemis mission?

GiorgioG

I’m not a big fan of Elon Musk, but this is just the typical executive talking up their product and to some extent being overly optimistic about timelines. You’d think with the quantity of software engineers in HN this would be obvious, but the (rightful IMO) disdain for Elon Musk is resetting people’s brains.

computerex

Guy is a serial liar and you are making excuses on his behalf.

The5thElephant

He is a serial liar, but we can also actually see the engineering progress which is remarkable regardless of his overinflated timelines.

His lying doesn't change the incredible work by those engineers and other employees of SpaceX.

GiorgioG

I hope you’re as vocal about your higher ups.

hooli_gan

The taxpayer is paying for these lies

schiffern

If you think delays in aerospace constitute "lies," you're not going to have a good time following any aerospace company. Unexpected delays are par for the course.

nomel

I don't think that's a useful framing.

If not SpaceX, it would be all NASA. NASA lies about their budget all the time, with massive overruns. For example, the Artemis overrun exceeds the entire cost of Starship development so far [1].

[1] https://www.space.com/nasa-sls-megarocket-cost-delays-report

GiorgioG

The taxpayer pays for all the lies.

bgnn

There's nothing typical about this kind of blatantly lying. It's a character trait of Musk, which should be a reason to be fired immediately as CEO in a sound free market operating on trust and transparency. We should not normalize this.

GiorgioG

Your mom experiences much better vastly different than mine. Trust and transparency is not something we have in the current “free market”. Musk is neither the first nor the last lying executive.

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inemesitaffia

Ask NASA about MSR

ChuckMcM

Will be interesting to hear the postmortem on the second stage. The booster part seemed to work pretty flawlessly with the exception of a non-firing engine on boost back which then did fire during the landing burn.

If the person doing their on-screen graphics is reading this, I wonder if you have considered showing tank LOX/CH4 remaining as a log graph. I believe it decreases logrithmically when being used (well it would if you keep 'thrust' constant) so that would create a linear sweep to the 'fuel level' status.

modeless

I don't believe they throttle the engines up or down much during the second stage burn. Fuel decreases ~linearly and thrust is relatively constant. Acceleration increases as fuel mass decreases.

hinkley

Don’t they throttle back at MaxQ?

modeless

Yes, on the first stage.

ChuckMcM

I would be surprised if that was the case, my reasoning to that is that computing where a thing is going, when it's under going with changing acceleration AND changing mass, is pretty complicated. Especially if you already have the capability to throttle the engines and keep 'a' constant.

They might, I'm not saying your wrong, I'm just saying that I cannot imagine how you would justify the added complexity of doing it that way.

modeless

The computations are complicated but not that complicated relative to everything else SpaceX is doing. It's much more important to optimize the propellant mass by using it most efficiently than to simplify some computations. And it's probably most efficient to burn the propellant as fast as possible.

Galxeagle

Any extra time spent during a burn is wasted fuel. Intuitively, any time before the rocket is in orbit, some part of the rocket thrust is resisting the force of gravity or else it would fall back down to earth. The longer that time is, the more thrust (and thus fuel) was spent negating that force. It's the main reason why the Falcon 9 boosters do a 'hoverslam' on return and land at close to full throttle - any extra time during that burn is less fuel efficient.

Better fuel efficiency = more payload to orbit = plenty of justification for the extra complexity.

Admittedly gravity losses are more significant at the beginning when the booster/ship are ascending purely vertically than later in second stage flight which is mostly horizontal, but definitely still a factor.

yreg

When this comment gets 44 minutes old it's going to be T-0.

clueless

reminds me of the classic joke: a man walking down a street, stops and asks another person if they know what time it is. The person responds: I'm sorry as I don't have a watch on me, but you see that car parked over there? when it explodes, it should be 5pm

cube2222

This comment was very helpful and exactly what I wanted to know opening this discussion, and made me chuckle on top of that, thank you!

null

[deleted]

dingaling

Thank you, I was trying to convert Central Time to something understandable.

All their systems and logging are running in UTC, why can't they just give launch times accordingly.

yreg

Yeah, I prefer this "when this comment is XY old" format the most when communicating internationally. Closely followed by UTC, of course.

I hate having to convert from some time zone which I don't know by heart; with the additional risk of getting daylight savings or something wrong and missing the event.

echoangle

Catch was successful again, very impressive.

ceejayoz

They may have lost the second stage, though.

echoangle

Yes, very much looks like it.

I wonder how much of the second stage flight is autonomous and if they need to continually need to give it a go to continue, or if it aborts automatically after some time of lost telemetry. But maybe it already exploded anyways.

timewizard

The flight control loops are strongly latched. They are constantly checking the state of discretes, control surfaces, and intended guidance. If any critical parameter gets out of range for a period of time or if any group of standard parameters gets out of range the vehicle will simply cease powered flight.

In the Space Shuttle, given that it was human rated, the "Range Safety" system was completely manual. It was controlled by a pair of individuals and they manually made the call to send the ARM/FIRE sequence to the range safety detonators.

philipwhiuk

The automated FTS is triggered if it leaves a pre-defined corridor (which is wider than the flight plan - substantially so in some places).

The AFTS has independent, hardened, validated inertial measurement systems.

moeadham

Probably self destructs if anything goes wrong

baq

Space is hard.

lysace

"we currently don't have comms on the ship"

edit: the spacex stream just confirmed the loss.

ceejayoz

Telemetry showed them lose engines one at a time, which isn’t a great sign.

HackerThemAll

That could have been kinda sorta intentional. No big deal.

mjevans

I miss the time before X broke so many things, like official streams being on Twitch where I've already paid for ad free viewing.

Osyris

My big gripe is that X videos don't seem to support Chromecast at all. I used to watch SpaceX launches on my TV :(

agildehaus

Load it in Chrome and cast the tab. Sucks that you have to involve your computer for the duration, but that's the most reliable way to do it IMO.

jryan49

Just watch the everyday astronauts coverage on YouTube! Great commentary, and feed from the official space x stream as well as their own cameras

vatueil

Space.com's YouTube channel always has a mirror of the official SpaceX livestream:

https://www.youtube.com/@VideoFromSpace/streams

Or if you would like additional commentary and extra camera views, there are independent channels such as Everyday Astronaut, NASASpaceFlight, Spaceflight Now, etc.

Cu3PO42

I now use AirPlay to extend a MacBook screen to my TV and play the stream that way. But it's so needlessly complicated compared to before :/

ivewonyoung

> X videos

cough cough

b8

uBlock Origin blocked any ads if there was any and I didn't have any issues (Ungoogled Chrome). I didn't pay for Twitch and TVV LOL Pro works fine for me.

nomel

For future reference, you can stream SpaceX launches from the SpaceX website. They tend to be higher quality. I've never seen an ad there.

mardifoufs

I'm glad it's not on Twitch. I don't like it being on X but twitch is worse since it's extremely hard to get any working Adblock on there.

thepasswordis

Couldn't you make a twitch stream of it? X isn't injecting ads into the video, so just open it on X and stream it to twitch.

jmpeax

I wonder if the second stage failure was related to the metal flap seen here on the very left of the image: https://imgur.com/a/VS8IPdv

mobiledev2014

I watched this with my very young daughter and she pointed that out, she will be fascinated if that is the case!