Nvidia dethrones Apple as the most valuable company
9 comments
·October 26, 2024tananaev
The valuation is completely nuts. It assumes that Nvidia's revenues will continue to grow at the same pace for many many years, without any competition. That's a very silly assumption IMO.
casey2
If AI really is as productive as this valuation claims then by then someone will have used it to invent a better cuda, and unless that's nvidia themselves they will lose their moat
If AI isn't this productive then they are still the safest bubble company in the bubble.
This situation, to me, says that most people are unsure of how productive AI will be so they don't want to directly invest in it, but following dot com logic companies partaking in tech bubbles will still beat the market as long as their P/E isn't in the multi hundreds year on year. Nvidias' P/E is similar to intel back then iirc
kylebenzle
Just wrote a blog post about this, it's time to short!
FireBeyond
Sounds like Tesla! Actually, Tesla has a higher rating...
The absolute number of $3.5T market cap seems high. But Nvidia's earnings last quarter were $17B. Annualized that is $68B.
The PE ratio calculated by current market cap of $3.5T divided by that annualized earnings is 52. Not unusual for a growing tech company.
I remember the arguments I hear here on HN these days "No company can be that big and still grow. Also competition will catch up!" from the early 2000's when Apple's market cap crossed $100B.
And from 2017 when Tesla's market cap crossed that of BMW.
It's not that easy. Companies are moving targets. Their future will be determined by revenue factors that are not generating any revenue today. With Apple it was the iPhone. With Tesla it was self-driving. With Nvidia it will be ... ?